Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JSRAW]

Eh JJG

No time-killing ideas from my side in the quarantine . i am working...   

Oh?  You are not in the same situation as me....? I thought that we would be the same... feels funny speaking like this.

But, seriously, are you in a job that has a lot of physical interaction with other people or are you able to work in mostly physical separation.

In my current local community, there are some businesses that are still open, and they mostly seem to involve at least some social distancing.  There have NOT been too many cases in my area, so far, except for one of my neighbors.. hahahahahaha.. but that was several weeks ago.

Working from home so i am covered in this regard. Business are shut down here as well except essential services, the place i am living in right now 80% are elderly people and 20% are expats/students. Elderly seems more vulnerable so we got request from our building manager that "plz take care of your elderly neighbors". So once a while had to run for supplies or medicines, taking all precautions of course.

I am surely looking forward to being able to travel, so I don't have to experience other locations through others rather than personally being able to experience other locations.

This year sucks for me as far as travelling is concern, not going into details but took some bad calls and reaping the shitty results.

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[Ibian]

"Suddenly the Swedish curve looks the best — and flattening out rapidly.
The truth is, the Swedish epidemic is far from the out of control disaster its critics would like to believe. Yesterday, there were 12 deaths from Covid-19; the previous day there were 17; the day before that there were 77 and the day before that there were 106. We could expect levels to catch up after this Easter weekend, but it can hardly be described as exponential growth."

Sweden had 111 dead today. Denmark had ten. Total deaths more than 4 times as high. Sweden has twice the population so death rate is more than 2 times as high. However,

The only way forward is immunity, either from vaccination or heard immunity, All those countries in lockdown right now have to let their citizens out on the street at some point, and when that happens people will start getting sick again. In the end the number of deaths per million will probably be pretty much the same in most countries.
Unless you keep your population in lockdown until a vaccin is ready of course, but by then that countrys economy will be dead.

The harder the lockdown the longer it will take until the entire country has been through the process. Ideally it should be spreading enough that the medical system can handle it, but not so low that we have wasted capacity. The longer it takes the higher chance the virus will mutate and stick around even longer. Denmark is opening up again in a few days. In 3 weeks we will know more.

I think the biggest problem is getting people to accept the idea that people are going to die. We are not used to that and it is making it more difficult than it had to be.

[Torque]

"Seasonal flu kills 291000 to 646000 people worldwide each year"


If we treated Covid-19 like we treat the flu, we'd have millions dead each year.

We still will. If it kills even 1% and it actually does spread 3 times as fast as the regular flu, that's 78 million dead right there.

Don't think I have forgotten, Ibian. I'm still waiting on your wonderful prediction of "millions of people to die" from Covid-19 to come true. Are we still on track for "millions and millions dead"?

Or is it, better luck next year?

[manitou]

Good morning, dinner was perfect and WO appeared between glass and glass of wine, this made it better.

Pissarres 2017?? Are you in Spain??

[Ibian]

"Seasonal flu kills 291000 to 646000 people worldwide each year"


If we treated Covid-19 like we treat the flu, we'd have millions dead each year.

We still will. If it kills even 1% and it actually does spread 3 times as fast as the regular flu, that's 78 million dead right there.

Don't think I have forgotten, Ibian. I'm still waiting on your wonderful prediction of "millions of people to die" from Covid-19 to come true. Are we still on track for "millions and millions dead"?

Or is it, better luck next year?

We Don't Know. That's the problem. If we did there would be no debate and no expectation of future smugness.

We are still getting 100k (known) cases every day. Most people who catch it are not symptomatic. For all we know there could be hundreds of millions of cases already.

But the real issue is not what is happening now. The economy has to start up again. That's the numbers that matter, how fast does infection and death spread when we have a working economy?

And that's not even the real problem. If it kills, just to throw a number out there, a tenth of the global population and then goes away, that's not a problem. We can glass china and call it a day and life will go back to normal.

The real problem is what if it doesn't go away? Rumor has it that reinfections are worse. And if that's true and it keeps reoccurring, we could be looking at a permanent weakening of the global population, possibly forever.

We need a cure.

[Arriemoller]

"Seasonal flu kills 291000 to 646000 people worldwide each year"


If we treated Covid-19 like we treat the flu, we'd have millions dead each year.

We still will. If it kills even 1% and it actually does spread 3 times as fast as the regular flu, that's 78 million dead right there.

Don't think I have forgotten, Ibian. I'm still waiting on your wonderful prediction of "millions of people to die" from Covid-19 to come true. Are we still on track for "millions and millions dead"?

Or is it, better luck next year?

Well, he did say if it kills 1% and if it spreads 3 times as fast.

And I don't know if he means 1% of the population or 1% of infected.

Anyhow ze Germans who I actually trust when it comes to statistics say ""The findings suggest the mortality rate for the virus in Germany is just 0.37 per cent — five times lower than current estimates."
Now if that is 0,37% of infected or of the whole population is unclar.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/04/09/many-people-may-already-have-immunity-coronavirus-german-study/

So, Ibian how many dead is it with these new numbers? (I'm to lazy to calculate myself, sorry).

[El duderino_]

Dildo...... 

[JL0]

I want to see this here  

[Phil_S]

CVN-71, now with over 95% of crew tested

fully 60% of positives are asymptomatic

let that sink in

The most important numbers:

4,800-member crew.

14% (660 sailors) tested positive.

[Ibian]

"Seasonal flu kills 291000 to 646000 people worldwide each year"


If we treated Covid-19 like we treat the flu, we'd have millions dead each year.

We still will. If it kills even 1% and it actually does spread 3 times as fast as the regular flu, that's 78 million dead right there.

Don't think I have forgotten, Ibian. I'm still waiting on your wonderful prediction of "millions of people to die" from Covid-19 to come true. Are we still on track for "millions and millions dead"?

Or is it, better luck next year?

Well, he did say if it kills 1% and if it spreads 3 times as fast.

And I don't know if he means 1% of the population or 1% of infected.

Anyhow ze Germans who I actually trust when it comes to statistics say ""The findings suggest the mortality rate for the virus in Germany is just 0.37 per cent — five times lower than current estimates."
Now if that is 0,37% of infected or of the whole population is unclar.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/04/09/many-people-may-already-have-immunity-coronavirus-german-study/

So, Ibian how many dead is it with these new numbers? (I'm to lazy to calculate myself, sorry).

Again, the numbers for a working economy is what matters. And I don't personally trust the german government, and Frau Merkel in particular. They are as socialist as the rest of us.

[Ibian]

CVN-71, now with over 95% of crew tested

fully 60% of positives are asymptomatic

let that sink in

The most important numbers:

4,800-member crew.

14% (660 sailors) tested positive.

Keeping in mind that they are young healthy people,

With a 14% infection rate and 40% sick enough to notice, that's 5.6%. Of those say a fifth will enter critical condition, 1.1%. Of those a fifth will die, so about 0.2% death rate in the entire sample group.

Again, these are young healthy people. It will be worse in the general population. But even then, this is not bad enough to shut down the entire economy. Life has to go back to normal, and soon, before it does permanent cultural and psychological damage.

The remaining problem is old people. They either have to isolate or just accept that a good chunk of them will die earlier than they otherwise would. I guess it really is a Boomer virus.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

I want to see this here  

I want to see this one

[JimboToronto]

Good morning Bitcoinland.

Still over $7k... currently $7253USD/$10154CAD (Bitcoinaverage).

Tumbling tumbleweeds indeed.

Am pretty sure drinking piss with cucumbers in it is a sign of a distressed mind. Best get yourself checked over.

Gin & lemonade my friend but give it another 3 weeks in lockdown & I’ll probably be semi insane, writing bible verses on the walls with my own excrement.

Hendrick's? That'll help keep you sane.

Had to do my infamous pulled pork.



Actually 13 pounds of it.
I will eat pulled pork until end of quarantine.

Yum. Looks good.

I still have some of my last batch of carnitas in the freezer. Nice to see we're surviving quarantine OK. Hopefully won't be reduced having to eat beans and rice (except as side dishes).

[lightfoot]

Don't think I have forgotten, Ibian. I'm still waiting on your wonderful prediction of "millions of people to die" from Covid-19 to come true. Are we still on track for "millions and millions dead"?

Or is it, better luck next year?

Well, in the US it looks like we went from 150 or so total deaths total on March 19th to 37,000 by April 19, 2019. If this thing takes 4 weeks to kill someone then we may see some interesting numbers by May 19.

Any good sites for statistical breakdowns on the dead (religion, age, affiliation, etc)? I'm really curious to see if this is taking out the boomers and if so where and how.

[fillippone]

EDIT: One full tally mark missing from the paper... it has been 49 days.

Wow, thats a near-maddening amount of time... have they given you a date when your lockdown is supposed to end?

Nah.
Current lockdown law expires May 3rd. So, until then nothing changes.
After that, who knows?
Apparently things are going better in Italy, but who knows what happen when you reopen everything a little bit?
Anyway we cannot even die trapped in our homes...

Yum. Looks good.

I still have some of my last batch of carnitas in the freezer. Nice to see we're surviving quarantine OK. Hopefully won't be reduced having to eat beans and rice (except as side dishes).

It is.
Eating rice, is not that bad in Italy.
I am black belt in risotto.

Gin & lemonade my friend but give it another 3 weeks in lockdown & I’ll probably be semi insane, writing bible verses on the walls with my own excrement.

Hendrick's? Pretty sane stuff

Hendrick's (coupled with tonic water, ice and lime) has been my best friend during this lockdown.
Hyuge consumption in the loliness.

[Phil_S]

Keeping in mind that they are young healthy people,

With a 14% infection rate and 40% sick enough to notice, that's 5.6%. Of those say a fifth will enter critical condition, 1.1%. Of those a fifth will die, so about 0.2% death rate in the entire sample group.

Again, these are young healthy people. It will be worse in the general population. But even then, this is not bad enough to shut down the entire economy. Life has to go back to normal, and soon, before it does permanent cultural and psychological damage.

The remaining problem is old people. They either have to isolate or just accept that a good chunk of them will die earlier than they otherwise would. I guess it really is a Boomer virus.

Super-interesting numbers on the general population (Santa Clara Country):

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/17/health/santa-clara-coronavirus-infections-study/index.html

(CNN)Far more people may have been infected with Covid-19 than have been confirmed by health officials in Santa Clara County, California, according to a study released Friday in preprint.

The study used an antibody blood test to estimate how many people had been infected with Covid-19 in the past. Other tests, like those performed with nasal swabs or saliva, test for the virus' genetic material, which does not persist long after recovery, as antibodies do.

The study estimated that 2.49% to 4.16% of people in Santa Clara Country had been infected with Covid-19 by April 1. This represents between 48,000 and 81,000 people, which is 50 to 85 times what county officials recorded by that date: 956 confirmed cases.

So every time we see "1000 confirmed cases" in some area, we should assume 50,000 - 80,000 infected there.

Maybe it's not that dangerous, and most people get over it so quickly that usual tests show nothing.

[lightfoot]

Possible. Could also mean that 20% of those 80,000 are in the early stages and on the way to the ER in a week or so. That could pop up the death rate.

What's interesting me right now is the recent pops in the rate. I thought it might start to level off or go down but with 3856 coffins yesterday vs. 1500 a few days ago in the "saddle" I think it's not going down.

Side thought: Prep work ahead of a disaster can buy time. Right now I believe it's a very bad idea to go out in public for supplies. Having proper respirators gives you a few weeks of extra time to go out and keep your supplies peaked in case we hit Day 6 and grocery stores are closed hard. That will probably last a month so you need a month of food to ride it out. Not a good time to run out of food.

Seeing the first whispers of Day 6 now with pork and other meat processing plants shutting down. If this happens and they can't do their work with proper quarantine distances then things could get complicated in a month or so. We shall see....

[lightfoot]

Meantime Bitcoin is at 7254 and the litecoin/bitcoin spread is at a solid .006. Which means bitcon and alts are rising in sync.

good

[JimboToronto]

I am black belt in risotto

Like almost any good food, risotto has to start with good stock. The chickens here in Mexico may not be as plump and tender as the ones in Canada, but they make excellent stock.

Hendrick's (coupled with tonic water , ice and lime  has been my best friend during this lockdown.

As for Hendrick's, I'm getting a little worried about my supply. I just finished my second last bottle and I'm trying to hold off opening my last one as long as possible. I have maybe enough Sapphire for 2 drinks and less than a quarter bottle of Tanqueray. My half bottle of Hendrick's Orbium is for extreme emergencies only. It should be in a glass case with a little hammer.

I'm out of rum, wine (except vermouth) and cognac and I'm down to my last half bottles of tequila and Crown Royal.  

They blindsided me here with their ban on alcohol. In most civilized countries, alcohol supply is considered essential like food or pharmaceuticals. Here they were worried about maintaining "social order". OMG, it's gangs of rampaging social distancers!

Managed to acquire a little bootleg cerveza from a nearby town and immediately put in an order for as much more and as much tequila as I could get but then they closed down the highway almost immediately so I'm SOL.

Gotta ration, but that's hard when you've been living a life of unbridled decadence for so many years.

Sigh.

[Toxic2040]

the morning Wall report

Fierce persistent attacks overnight followed by a troop surge this morning have driven the Bears from around the $7k stronghold they have been occupying upwards towards the $7.3k resistance zone. Bull reinforcements continue to seek to establish a beachhead in the $7.3k-$7.5k range to extend their gainz. #dyor  

3h


#btd's
1h

#stronghands