Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[MANofthePEOPLE]

Don't think we'll go much lower than this unless willy removes his 552 wall. For now at least

[Searing]

Paul Buitink @paulbuitink · 2h

According to my source it was the leaking of the crisis doc that ultimately killed the rescue of Gox

no he was doomed when he told the bitcoin foundation that his wallet method or accounting lost the coins
assuming what he says is true...he is an idiot at the head of a corporation that was clueless for years..
so..it is either that or he is an evil genius and will keep his personal fortune via bankruptcy...(ie he really
was that stupid ...therefore blameless in the theft...therefore bankruptcy protection will protect all his
personal assets)

no way that the document circulating killed mtgox....because any document stating he was clueless
enought to lose millions of bitcoins either now or later would have just killed it dead

no one invests in stupid

the sad part is he may have actually been clueless on all this which means by going bankrupt he
will keep any $$$ he cashed out in bitcoin years ago...you can't go after personal assets in
bankruptcy for being stupid and lossing folks btc or $$$ only if your intent was to do harm

so yeah he could walk away in his own unicorn and rainbow universe in a year when this
whole escapade when the bankruptcy shakes out....he will be humilated but likely have
way more money then me yet

the ways of finance.....people at the bottom have no safety nets ...people at the top
have all sorts for the same stupid/destructive behaviors....

anyhow hope i'm wrong ...but likely if he truely was that dumb (likely) he will walk
away from this humilated but still well off

Searing

[mmitech]

I'm afraid we have one more leg down, not mainly because of Gox bankruptcy news but overall, it didn't look last 2 days we're ready for new rally. Gox news could help a bit.

But since even I am finding myself thinking where it will stop than reversal probably isn't too far.

My thoughts as well. The "recovery" already seemed to get stuck yesterday night, and with further price development of today, it's starting to look like we're leaning towards downward breakout.

I will add some analyzes and feel free to discuss its validity:

[....]

Well, here's my comment on it: Your analysis makes sense, but except for the last one it's all based on momentum trading, which usually works, until it doesn't anymore... especially now that there is probably quite a few in here who think we're maybe still not rallying, but that the bottom is in... which can translate into "let's start buying in again, since we're near the bottom anyway" rather quickly. That said, I also see more evidence that we're going back into the lower half of the 500s again, since breaking 600 doesn't seem to be an option either right now, and the momentum is still downwards on any recent time scale bigger than 3 days.

I was in both past bubbles and I can confirm one thing, when the bubble ends the price wont shoot up in a couple of weeks, it will take a couple of months of some visual stability, then we can shoot up just because everyone is trying to discover the "real" price of a bitcoin.

I will make sure to wait and look for that sweet spot and buy back, if I am wrong and if anything happen in between and I get surprise (bitcoin is unpredictable) then I will just cash out my profits and hold to my current BTC portfolio.

[yrtrnc]

How could they possibly have lost 850,000 BTCs?  

No cold wallet at all?

if it looks like an inside job, smells like an inside job and tastes like an inside job i guess it was an:


inside job.


it went on for a longer time. if it would have been an acute problem, mk would have been communicating with customers way more direct, authentic, shocked.  

he knew it. maybe did it.

He done it 99.99%

There must be legal action against Mt. Gox!!!

If this guy and other insiders will not be prosecuted, it states clearly to the protagonists, that any other exchange or virtual currency business can do such scam again and again and again.

Based on what will they be prosecuted?

[seleme]

Probably the second one, I mentioned it on Gox bankruptcy thread. It makes me wonder if it would be good thing to buy some GoxBTC if price fails more.

How would you go about recovering money then if Josh has all the coins? I cant see him receiving a sum of money and then sending out 100's of wires. Furthermore you don't know how long it will take and by the time you see any money the btc you spent could be worth more than the gain.

Yeah, both are legitimate risks that I was thinking about.

Best option would be for them to pay at some point before BTC is on the moon and Josh to buy bitcoins with that money and send them to us.

But I probably won't buy it, unless it drops to some silly levels.

[MatTheCat]

your forgot the 1d MACD, which is turning green.

4 Hr MACD has just crossed.

The king of all trader Sell Signals.

This sucker is going down hard....whether it breaches $400, I seriously doubt it but with Bitcoin anything is possible.

[TERA]

I am going to go ahead and defer all this fear and speculation to my net of standing orders. I'll settle for an average price at the midpoint inbetween here and the low, which will put me in the black as soon as any kind of bounce occurs.

[mmitech]

your forgot the 1d MACD, which is turning green.

yes I didnt forget it, I ignored it because the 4h,6h,12h are all going/already  crossed/crossing and turning red which means that the 1d will turn down right away... now they are just touching and they are not crossing...

[seleme]

I don't think 400 will be the bottom this time IMHO

Gox's collapse will be a huge blow to bitcoin. Expect lots of ignorant merchants to simply withdrew from accepting bitcoins and expect potentially new merchants abandon their plans to start accepting bitcoins.

Bottom will be well below 400 and if btc ever recovers it might take years.

Lol, I wouldn't want to go fight wars with you as my comrade 

[aminorex]

Gox's collapse will be a huge blow to bitcoin. Expect lots of ignorant merchants to simply withdrew from accepting bitcoins and expect potentially new merchants abandon their plans to start accepting bitcoins.

Yes, because you know how merchants hate to make sales, and prefer to not receive any money.  After Lehman Brother's when bankrupt, remember how hard it was to get anyone to take a $100USD note?

[magicmexican]

your forgot the 1d MACD, which is turning green.

4 Hr MACD has just crossed.

The king of all trader Sell Signals.

This sucker is going down hard....whether it breaches $400, I seriously doubt it but with Bitcoin anything is possible.

I dont think it would, there is no panic in the air, no uncertainty. Just a casual dump because " we supposed to dump"

[JorgeStolfi]

The price at Huobi suffered a sudden and permanent drop of ~350 yuan on Feb/10 (first MtGOX press release) and on Feb/20 (second MtGox press release).  Looks like today there will be another one today?

Equivalent drops of course occurred in all functioning exchanges, but they may be harder to see because of their higher "noise" level (short-term volatility).  

There was an earlier quantum drop at all exchanges on Feb/06.  I do not recall what incident could have been the cause, does anyone?

Curiously, at Bitstamp there was no persistent drop on Feb/10, apparently because the drop on Feb/06 was larger than at other exchanges.  Indeed arbitrage between Bitstamp and Huobi apparently stopped between Feb/06 and Feb/10, or used a much higher currency factor (~6.40 CNY/USD instead of ~6.10) during those days.  It is as if Bitstamp foresaw the Feb/10 "Karpeles Catastrophe" and played it out in advance.

EDIT 350 yuan is about 60 dollars.

[FNG]

CCMF

[barbs]

Prepare for the FINAL GOXXING.

[el_rlee]

Sooo.... Will MtGox implement Litecoin trading soon?

[oda.krell]

WHAT DID I tell you guys before lol. As soon as we get the overdue correction, everyone starts theorizing about the continuation of the bear market and how awful the gox situation is. Then miss their buying opportunity because they are waiting for some ridiculous 300 or whatever.

Maybe. Or maybe people are looking at the slightly bigger picture and wonder when we're finally going to break out of that February trend. Certainly didn't happen on the post-400 recovery, that much we know.

[zyk]

Paul Buitink @paulbuitink · 2h

According to my source it was the leaking of the crisis doc that ultimately killed the rescue of Gox

The joint statement killed the rescue (if one ever was to be effected).

Yeah , you could have covered up the ponzi for quite a longer time....but the majority of insiders decided to

rather cash out now, since most of them sold already (and don´t want to be caught red-handed)

The bag is for you Mesdames et Monsieurs

[mmitech]

your forgot the 1d MACD, which is turning green.

4 Hr MACD has just crossed.

The king of all trader Sell Signals.

This sucker is going down hard....whether it breaches $400, I seriously doubt it but with Bitcoin anything is possible.

I dont think it would, there is no panic in the air, no uncertainty. Just a casual dump because " we supposed to dump"

I don't expect panic at all, we will be going down slowly and in waves, so there is always a chance for making profit in between, but because I dont have nerves and balls to trade daily, I wait for good and clear opportunities and trade 2 or 3 times maximum a month, and believe me it is better than watching the 15 min chart and going crazy... and of course it is also safer.

[Solarstorm75]

That's the point BTC won't work for me anymore. I dont trust it. I don't trust any exchanges anymore. But Bitcoin is based on trust only.

Bitcoin is based on not trusting.  Its primary value is as a cryptographic protocol providing cryptographic guarantees, so that you do not need to trust a counterparty.  If you give your bitcoins to someone else and they do not return them, it is not a failure of bitcoin.  It is a failure of your good sense.  Do not trust your good sense until you retrain it.  Bitcoin remains trustworthy.

Okay, I should have written: Bitcoin's real life value is based on trust. I would never had fiat invested into Bitcoin, if I had no trust, that there are a lot of people paying fiat to me for the BTC tomorrow .

[JorgeStolfi]

From Rick Falkvinge's blog:
http://falkvinge.net/2014/02/28/the-gox-crater-crowd-detectives-reveal-billion-dollar-heist-as-inside-job/

Feb 28 11:27 - A class action lawsuit has been filed that sues Mark Karpeles, MtGox Inc (US), MtGox KK (JP), and Tibanne KK (JP) for pretty much all of the above.