Should I FOMO in and buy bitcoins ?
Don't FOMO in that is one of the worst approaches, because it will likely result in you overinvesting, and really I don't understand why anyone would by FOMOing in at this particular time.
You gotta save the FOMOing in at around $25k to $30k, and maybe even higher prices? That would make more sense in terms of FOMOing.
It felt around 8K$ was a coherent equilibrium between the real commercial and technical network and the anticipations and the future.
You might be overanalyzing. There is no real "fair" price for bitcoin, but sometimes you can kind of get a sense that if the price has been at a certain point for a while, then perhaps some buying support has built up at that level, though that is not really guaranteed, either.
We are sitting around 8800$/coin atm. On one hand, it feels it could get up to 10K$ and find a new higher equilibrium with all the money printing and risks of lost value in both USD and EUR. Bitcoin could to it correlated to the financial markets or with the financial markets going down.
You also seem to be thinking, way the fuck too much, short term. You should first create a plan that has a minimum of 4 years investing, and better to have something that is much longer than that. Of course, I cannot tell you specifically what your time horizon should be because I don't really know anything about you in terms of your age or your health or maybe some other factors that might affect how you consider your timeline....
Once you get a kind of long term investment plan into bitcoin and you are mostly focusing on retaining your long term position and DCAing in, then once you are aligned with those goals, then maybe you can take a portion of your bitcoin portfolio value (perhaps 10% or so, and then fuck around with your little short-term theories in regards to a small portion of your BTC portfolio value), but you should establish and put in place a long term plan that has actually largely been met, before you start to fuck around with short term playing arounds
(aka fuckening arounds).
On the other hand, there could be an other rush to liquidity first.
Of course, there could. That is why your plan should be long term, including figuring out your accumulation goal, buying on dips and making sure that you continue to have enough money to continue to buy on the way down, just in case it does.
I just looked at your forum registration date, boumalo, and you have been registered on the forum as long as me, so you should have had enough time to accumulate a decent BTC position, right? You been fucking around with shitcoins or employing other gambling techniques, such as trying to time the market, the whole time? Even dollar cost averaging into bitcoin at $25 a week could have put you at a really reasonable stash of bitcoin by now - something around 17 to 20 bitcoins.
See this chart comparing bitcoin to other investments with a $25 amount per week and a 7 year selection.
The financial markets have been going up and Bitcoin has been mostly correlated with the stock markets.
Again, your mindset seems to be too damned short term. Sure bitcoin might be correlated with other assets such as stocks in the short term, but if you have been studying the BTC space long enough, you should be able to recognize that the short term correlation stories are largely a load of crap, even if you can see evidence of them in the short term. Essentially, if you continue to focus on short term correlation (that concedingly happens to be true), then you are likely focusing on noise and likely going to get fucked by failing and refusing to execute a reasonable accumulation plan in regards to bitcoin, which seems that you may have already been failing and refusing to accumulate BTC if you are suggesting that any of us longer term bitcoiners should be giving very much weight to coincidental short-term correlation between bitcoin and any other asset class, whether we are talking about equities (stocks) or gold or any other asset.
There continues to be a considerable amount of evidence for anyone willing to see it that bitcoin remains largely non-correlated to any other asset class, even though in the short term we are seeing evidence (and a decent amount of argument,
aka likely FUD) to the contrary.
A lot of investors are still optimistic about a V shape recovery after the confinement and we have dip buyers that put floors on the market. Also, the market knows the central banks will intervene more and support prices so it feels they have been disregarding decrease profit forecasts, unemployment and the huge difficulties in some sectors.
Depending on where you are at with your investments in stocks and gold, then yeah, you might need to consider how much the performance (and predictions) regarding those markets should be factored into your bitcoin allocation considerations.
Surely, I have always suggested that almost anyone should be 1% to 10% in bitcoin, but your allocation percentage in bitcoin might also relate to what you have been doing with your whole history in bitcoin, for example in the last almost 7.5 years that you have been a member of this forum.
When I got into bitcoin in late 2013, I did not really consider how much I was going to allocate into bitcoin in terms of a percentage, but at that time, I did create a 6 month budget to accumulation through a kind of front loading DCA, with about at least a 1 year investment plan, but ideally more than a 2 year plan (in my then thinking), but I was going to play it by ear and to study the matter for the next 6 months while I was DCA investing into bitcoin. Towards the end of those first 6 months (which would have been April/May 2014), I largely extended my accumulation plan another 6 months, and probably towards the end of the second six months (November 2014-ish), I had considered 10% into BTC as compared with my other quasi-liquid investments (which were mostly equities, but there were some cashflowing investments in there, too) to be my BTC accumulation goal.
Anyhow, my point continues to be that if you are currently trying to figure out how much to invest into bitcoin, and concerns that BTC might be correlated to equities, anyhow, then maybe you would end up just lowering your investment proportion in bitcoin because you do not consider bitcoin to be adding much if any value, apart from equities. That is based on your own views of the matter.
Essentially, I do find your quandary of how much to invest into BTC right now to be a little bit hard to follow because no one really knows what the fuck to do with regard to equities and whether the little money printer go bbbbbbrrrrr plan is going to sufficiently hold up equity values during these trying times, and surely there is both a lot of doubt out there regarding whether money printer go bbbbbbbrrrrrr is a sufficient plan in order to hold up equities in these kinds of times.
There are many guys (and gal) here in this thread who seem to believe that the money printer go bbbbbrrrrr scenario actually is bullish for bitcoin (moreso than equities), and they would rather overallocate a bit into bitcoin during these kinds of times and the money printer go bbbbbbrrrrrr plan is actually more rather than less bullish in terms of allocating a higher percentage into bitcoin relative to equities than you would have done in other scenarios.
Of course, reasonable minds can differ too, and we will find out in the coming 4-6 years (probably a lot shorter than that) whether over-allocating into bitcoin as compared to equities ended up paying off as a better plan.
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