Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[HairyMaclairy]

Was testing of all passengers and crew done on the Diamond Princess?  If we don’t know the denominator, then the Case Fatality Rate is just guesswork.

Case fatality rate is at 100% for our life time.

That may be so, but most people given the choice would decline the option of dying in the next 60 days.

[criptix]

I said healthy people who die, take a long time to die.  It takes them 45 - 60 days to drown in their own lung fluid as they fight every step of the way.

Outbreak on Diamond Princess ship occurred 3 months ago. Yet no significant increase in the last month or so, right?

I know you will say that the passengers were probably old and fat.

And I will say the crew members were probably NOT old and fat.

Was testing of all passengers and crew done on the Diamond Princess?  If we don’t know the denominator, then the Case Fatality Rate is just guesswork.  The only data I can find is 712 cases and 13 deaths giving a CFR of 1.8%

CFR is not a very useful indicator for corona because high majority of infected are asymptomatic and recover without being tested.

Most studies out from europe are showing an IFR of 0,3 to 0,7%.

[HairyMaclairy]

Elimination behind sealed borders is a real possibility.  *If* that is achieved, then many would be happy to wait out the pandemic behind sealed borders.  You can postpone it forever if you don’t let it in.  The virus can only come in, if you let it in.  

Do you really believe that?
One way or the other, sooner or later, you're going to have to interact with the rest of the world.
It is your economy that will be destroyed behind sealed borders.

Waiting it out is total bullshit.
The Mayans were waiting out on European pandemics for centuries, until Christopher decided to visit.
Too bad there was no BG then, uh?

Yeah I don’t know about that.

We grow about three times more food than required to support our population.  

We load wheat, coal and iron ore into bulk carriers using conveyors. We offload refined fuel through pipes.  

We can put foreign aircrew into supervised hotel quarantine for air cargo (spares and new iPhones).  If it’s really important for other people to visit, they can sit in 14 day quarantine as well.  

We have one of the worlds leading vaccine companies (CSL).

Not a lot of physical contact required with the outside world.  Just in my house I could go off grid for six months right now and not even blink.  Lots of solar power, thousands of liters of tank water and plenty of dried goods.

[Cryptotourist]

Sorry to disappoint you but he DGAF about anyone else. He would just go off and live in the sea

Actually he does GAF.

Also not only it is his right, he is setting the example that we should decentralize as a society.
You know, not hooked up to the big brother.

That may be so, but most people given the choice would decline the option of dying in the next 60 days.

That's why we were in lock down, dah, for the benefit of the doubt.
Then what? Another 60 days? This is not viable.

If you told us that we would to go up 100 years of age, but needed to stay up locked half of the years inside four walls (worries free), OR go outside and be free to move as usual and take our chances to live a much shorter life, what do you think we should choose?

[criptix]

Btw there are nations who managed corona extremely well, without months of total lockdown:

https://www.vox.com/2020/5/5/21247837/coronavirus-vietnam-slovenia-jordan-iceland-greece

[Cryptotourist]

Elimination behind sealed borders is a real possibility.  *If* that is achieved, then many would be happy to wait out the pandemic behind sealed borders.  You can postpone it forever if you don’t let it in.  The virus can only come in, if you let it in.  

Do you really believe that?
One way or the other, sooner or later, you're going to have to interact with the rest of the world.
It is your economy that will be destroyed behind sealed borders.

Waiting it out is total bullshit.
The Mayans were waiting out on European pandemics for centuries, until Christopher decided to visit.
Too bad there was no BG then, uh?

Yeah I don’t know about that.

We grow about three times more food than required to support our population.  

We load wheat, coal and iron ore into bulk carriers using conveyors. We offload refined fuel through pipes.  

We can put foreign aircrew into supervised hotel quarantine for air cargo (spares and new iPhones).  If it’s really important for other people to visit, they can sit in 14 day quarantine as well.  

We have one of the worlds leading vaccine companies (CSL).

Not a lot of physical contact required with the outside world.  Just in my house I could go off grid for six months right now and not even blink.  Lots of solar power, thousands of liters of tank water and plenty of dried goods.

Hey, I know what you are talking about, I live on a self sufficient island as well.
Who said anything about six months? Do you think you can sustain closed borders for - let's say - a few years?

[HairyMaclairy]

Hey, I know what you are talking about, I live on a self sufficient island as well.
Who said anything about six months? Do you think you can sustain closed borders for - let's say - a few years?

If sealed borders means free movement of goods, and entry via 14 days supervised quarantine, then Yes.  Easily.  

Australia will be in a bubble with New Zealand, but that’s ok. We can go skiing there. 

[Globb0]

Surrender to the virus and you also surrender your economy.  

OTOH, surrender your liberties and you also surrender to tyranny.

Incidentally, I don't doubt your rather rational conclusions about the effect of what you term 'opening early', as far as epidemiology goes. I just don't agree that the government of a free society has a legitimate authority to order the populace to stay in their cages.

As far as the effect upon Bitcoin, I'm not seeing such a causative factor.

At the risk of hubris, Australia is on the edge of eliminating the virus.  We have 10% of the population of the USA and 97 deaths total.  Our death rate is roughly one-thousandth yours.  

The only difference is that our leaders (despite their other faults) listened to the medical advice.  Within 2 months we should, fingers crossed, have a completely open and fully functional economy with no virus behind our sealed borders.  Many other European countries will also be in the same position.  

Meanwhile the US will lurch from crisis to crisis over the next six months, with hundreds of thousands and possibly millions dead.   You can keep your liberties.  

On Bitcoin, I suggest it is only a 50% chance that it will trigger another significant crash.  It is really hard to tie the real economy to Bitcoin, and question the extent we should try

I wish your country well, but I don't believe in miracles. All what you did is to postpone, UNLESS there is a functional vaccine soon.
There are lots of theoretical studies about this postponement phenomenon.
Then, maybe, you will get lucky with an early vaccine.
It is otherwise not possible to keep below 7k infections in a 30 mil population size country.
It opens up, infections would go up.
I understand the partial way-stay open when you can, close when you can't.
It is messy, but around here people already started to ignore orders.
Mask coverage dipped lately to 20% from 60% on the residential street, although we are still under "orders" to keep them on when outside.

Excluding New South Wales and Victoria, both of which have an active cluster,  not one Australian state recorded a new case yesterday despite very high rates of testing.  State borders are closed.  

Elimination behind sealed borders is a real possibility.  *If* that is achieved, then many would be happy to wait out the pandemic behind sealed borders.  You can postpone it forever if you don’t let it in.  The virus can only come in, if you let it in. 

We do have a problem with NSW lifting its restrictions too early but other States will keep their borders sealed against NSW while they sort themselves out.  

I say this with caution because we could easily screw this up yet.  

Something or someone has to come and go to keep you supplied with food and other stuff. Unless you are lucky enough to be a self sustaining county. Lots of countries have given up that feature in favour of cheap foreign X or Y

[Cryptotourist]

Hey, I know what you are talking about, I live on a self sufficient island as well.
Who said anything about six months? Do you think you can sustain closed borders for - let's say - a few years?

If sealed borders means free movement of goods, and entry via 14 days supervised quarantine, then Yes.  Easily.  

Fair enough, what about the PEOPLE?

edit: sorry, didn't read it correctly. No. Definitely NO.

[HairyMaclairy]

Would you care to explain why it’s not possible?

[Cryptotourist]

Would you care to explain why it’s not possible?

Simply put, the human factor.

For example holidays are a no go, but so are relatives/family members visiting from other countries.

[HairyMaclairy]

They can go in supervised quarantine for two weeks or they can GTFO. 

[Cryptotourist]

They can go in supervised quarantine for two weeks or they can GTFO. 

Hi honey, I'd love to visit and see you and the kids, but I'm afraid the ship leaves in a week, so maybe next year.

[criptix]

They can go in supervised quarantine for two weeks or they can GTFO.  

Imagine a truck driver or seaman transporting goods getting quarantined for 14 days.

That wont work for long because all workers would be quarantined.


Goods wont move from themself thus an automatic quarantintine for everyone will likely not work.

[Phil_S]

I said healthy people who die, take a long time to die.  It takes them 45 - 60 days to drown in their own lung fluid as they fight every step of the way.

Outbreak on Diamond Princess ship occurred 3 months ago. Yet no significant increase in the last month or so, right?

I know you will say that the passengers were probably old and fat.

And I will say the crew members were probably NOT old and fat.

Was testing of all passengers and crew done on the Diamond Princess?  If we don’t know the denominator, then the Case Fatality Rate is just guesswork.  The only data I can find is 712 cases and 13 deaths giving a CFR of 1.8%

They say "over 3000 tests" on the ship by the end of February. I assume they eventually tested everybody before letting them out:

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00885-w

Japanese officials performed more than 3,000 tests on the Diamond Princess, starting with older passengers and those with symptoms. Some passengers were tested more than once, offering insight into the virus’s spread over time. Testing almost all of the passengers and crew helped researchers to understand a key blind spot in many infectious-disease outbreaks — how many people are actually infected, including those who have mild symptoms or none at all. These cases often go undetected in the general population.

[Globb0]

Btw there are nations who managed corona extremely well, without months of total lockdown:

https://www.vox.com/2020/5/5/21247837/coronavirus-vietnam-slovenia-jordan-iceland-greece

and there are some very poor countries that could be a tinder box if they had a single case.

[HairyMaclairy]

They can go in supervised quarantine for two weeks or they can GTFO.  

Imagine a truck driver or seaman transporting goods getting quarantined for 14 days.

That wont work for long because all workers would be quarantined.


Goods wont move from themself thus an automatic quarantintine for everyone will likely not work.

[Globb0]

On a boat like that the journey could be the quarantine time

[criptix]

They can go in supervised quarantine for two weeks or they can GTFO.  

Imagine a truck driver or seaman transporting goods getting quarantined for 14 days.

That wont work for long because all workers would be quarantined.


Goods wont move from themself thus an automatic quarantintine for everyone will likely not work.

And all this machines and ships are operated by humans

Like trucks, trains and airplanes.

[HairyMaclairy]

Port staff don’t need to come within 20 meters of ship crew to unload a boat.  Air crew never touch their cargo. It’s loaded by airport ground staff at one end and unloaded by airport ground staff at the other end.  

You need pilots to board a ship to get the ship into harbour, but you could just use proper PPE and isolate the ship pilots.  

I’m not making this shit up, it’s official Australian government policy. 

The bigger risk is we are not on top of the virus and get a second wave due to asymptomatic community transmission.