Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

I am not reading this topic as I used to do because It is not fun for me anymore since I don't have any horses in the race

Of course, you are NOT going to feel any kind of internal motivation to involve yourself in this thread.

but...

Of course, almost anyone could have seen a "but" coming.

I am not going to lie, I was jealous about the price rise...

Yes, the odds are quite high that you are going to continue to feel jealous about the bitcoin price until you can figure out some way to get your head back together and figure out some reasonable way to get some kind of meaningful stake.   You are not going to be resolved or even saying anything that makes any sense until you are able to get some balance back to your perspective.

till I saw this.

You'll probably see this as FUD but hey, I am not good at holding back from saying what I think.

Update from:

Yeah of course you would believe that tether FUD is relevant.  Roach also thought that Tether fud was relevant starting from about August 2016 when Roach bailed out of BTC at around $600-ish due to the bitfinex "hack" that had a whole hell of a lot of tether FUD suggesting that bitcoin was dead, bitfinex was not coming back and the whole bitcoin space is fucked because of the bitfinex and tether situation.

Largely baloney, as anyone should be able to recognize, but many people refuse to recognize that there is way the fuck more going on in bitcoin, besides some baloney tether fud, and yeah, you can continue to emphasize that one factor or continue to selectively find bitcoin is dead, broken or deficient, and likely you will be doing that to your peril unless you can figure out some way to get back into bitcoin before you brain is totally muddled by tin foil hat baloney, and pretty soon you will be pumping PMs such as gold because they are more tangible, blah blah blah blah.

Bank of Tether:

Yes, of course, it seems crazy, but it is nothing new.  You are not really providing new information or insight that is going to make any kind of meaningful impact on bitcoin's price direction, which likely to continue to be largely UP in the coming 18 months or so... and the likely impending upwards BTC price movement cycle for this time around has barely even started.

[1714855853]

1714855853

[1714855853]

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[1714855853]

1714855853

[Hueristic]

Yeah, I too think I eventually found the holy grail thingy after like 6 months or so, iirc.
I also recall stumbling on an “Easter egg” screen of the Starship Enterprise that cruised by.
It didn’t answer when I tried to communicate though.
Fun times for sure. And many beers and bong hits....

Yeah. Eventually I just started taking on the Galactic police. If you're fully upgunned and armored it can be one hell of a battle....

Weird game. Way way ahead of its time.

I spent so much time trying to crack those binary messages before I gave up and played the game till I got a translator.


6 is the perfect number.

[JayJuanGee]

Up, and down, and up, and down. I must sleep but BTC doesn't give me any respite !

Spread out your order increments a bit..... and your quality (and quantity) of life will likely be allowed to improve (increase).

[Paashaas]

CME options growth is exploding.

[JayJuanGee]

The dude says 2020

First half of 2021 I went for. Sooner is better though obviously.

I was kind of wishing that the poll would have divided up 2020 to show how sentiment in regards to reaching an ATH this year might even have a couple of levels of bullishness that can be distinguished.  So, for example, have in the poll one 2020 option for between May- October and a second option for 2020 of between October-December.  

I usually attempt to be pretty conservative in my expectations of future BTC prices, but I could see a kind of fake out that goes above ATH and then severely corrects back down that follows a kind of 2013 pattern of an early top that ends up in a double top, but probably overall more conservative than the whole 2013 bull run because that one was a bit much and could even be argued to have been in excess of 100x when looking at both of those runs together.... so i did choose 2020 as witnessing an ATH, but I am thinking that it would be more likely in October or later, rather than before October... just a tentative thought based on current transient feelings (to the extent that I feel anything)

I think that a 100x run would be difficult to attain, but I am not really seeing reaching the previous ATH as very difficult to attain, even in this calendar year.. but yeah, maybe it will not happen until sometime in 2021... and of course, it has to happen before the end of 2021, otherwise you, LFC, are going to be having to pay a disingenuine shill troll... aka Bossian or whatever the fuck his user name was... (I just looked up that fucktwat, and looks like he removed the reference to the bet - and the pay him address from his signature.. what a fucking increasing likelihood to get scammed to get involved with any dealings with twats like that)  hahahahahaahaha.. then it would suck to be you.    

Wasn't expecting you, Jay, to vote for 2020! I like this!

Late 2020 does not seems to be a bad angle, at the moment.  Catch up with me in a week or two, and I might be thinking differently about the situation.

I guess I'm more conservative than you -- I voted for 2nd half of 2021. Let's hope you're right (or I am), and, more importantly, let's hope it keeps rising afterwards (even slowly). We don't want to see another 2017 plunge (something urges me to place a McAfee bet that we won't).

I am going to start battling you, AlcoHoDL, if you start to suggest that bitcoin is going to transition into some kind of price stable asset class. #nohomo

One of the most highly probable predictions that any bitcoin price dynamics watcher could reasonably venture would be that bitcoin is going to continue to be a place for ongoing violent price battles, and one of the ways to most likely lessen such ongoing considerable volatility would be to increase bitcoin's market cap by 1,000x or 10,000x, and I doubt that would even remove the battles - and really, as I already suggested 100x would be amongst the most bullish of possible BTC price movements in the next 4 years or so, and I even find 100x to be quite unlikely to happen, maybe even in the less than 1% odds arena.

So, of course, beyond the mere concept of battling over BTC price, there is another dynamic in which bear whale manipulators strive to keep BTC's price down as low as they can, and for as long as they can, but sometimes they just run out of ammunition and they have to just let the BTC price run for a while (which means up) until they can get back a hold of it, so the reality of the BTC price dynamics that involves a lot of ongoing attempts to manipulate the BTC price down as low as possible and for as long as possible will also contribute to the violent BTC price movements on a ongoing and regular basis.

Sure, I am not going to continue to fantasize about the existence of ongoing volatility because if I start to witness that the ongoing violent BTC price moves are tending towards slowing down, then I don't mind jumping on the "bitcoin price is going to be stable" bandwagon, but there are hardly any meaningful evidence of that, at all... so it just seems to serve as ongoing pie in the sky wishful thinking to project a kind of BTC price transition into stability when there is almost NO evidence of such a thing taking place or even having a .031149516% chance of happening, which in other words is pretty damned low odds.

I think 2021 onwards will be very interesting, and very rewarding for those who endured the long bear winter we went through.

It seems to be likely, and surely it will be nice once a BTC price base is established above the previous ATH... .. which hopefully has decent odds of happening.

GTCTTWW, but if it comes sooner, all the better for us.

I don't tent do complain about sooner, even if there may end up being some additional corrections that happen, merely when the BTC price moves up too fast and then the buying support does not seem to have enough time to keep up... but hey, I don't mind those kinds of dynamics when historically they have happened on a fairly regular basis... and there is no real evidence to suggest that such dynamic is going to be abruptly ending any time soon.

[Toxic2040]

the evening wall report

Consolidation appears to be the order of the day as bitcoin retraces from just below $10k to the mid $9k's. Seems like a good time to be buying the dips and stacking sats to me. 

Steady as she goes.

------

Just short fibs tonight...might have had a extra adult libation...a nap sounds good.   #dyor
4h


D

#stronghands

[JayJuanGee]

Question: How can you not hold when we all know that you'll make a boat-load (lotsa money) in the next 18 months?

I am pretty sure that the dynamic is referred to as:
 information asymmetry.

So, many of us should feel good that we both recognize the quality information that we have in regards to bitcoin, and we are also ready, willing and able to act upon such information asymmetry.  Sure, BTC price dynamics to the upside could take a while to play out, such as in the ball park of another 18 months.

And, hey, there are many of us, also ,who have not been greedy with our possession of asymmetric information.  I have read a lot of stories in this thread, over the years, about many attempts that several of us BTC HODLers/accumulators have made to share bitcoin related information with various regular peeps, and sometimes it just takes time for many people to come around and either start to better understand the bitcoin related information that is presented to them and also to figure out ways to meaningfully take actions such as setting up accounts in order that they can begin to accumulate BTC (or perhaps other means to accomplish such accumulation) that will benefit them in response to having had received such asymmetric information.

[JSRAW]

1H 2021... i am happy if we touch sub $15k by EOY then ATH around first quarter.

[JayJuanGee]

1H 2021... i am happy if we touch sub $15k by EOY then ATH around first quarter.

Probably, King daddy does prefer if you were to be happy whether we are considering the end of year or the first quarter of next year. 

I have noticed that about king daddy... king daddy cares.   #nohomo.

[JSRAW]

1H 2021... i am happy if we touch sub $15k by EOY then ATH around first quarter.

Probably, King daddy does prefer if you were to be happy whether we are considering the end of year or the first quarter of next year.  

I have noticed that about king daddy... king daddy cares.   #nohomo.

Daddy without Mommy is not healthy combination...so where is Queen Mommy  

Unless you are saying #yeshomo 

[Room101]

CME options growth is exploding.

interesting thanks, where did you source that from?

[Cryptotourist]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/14/france-spain-say-large-scale-testing-coronavirus-shows-no-herd/

... so back-of-envelope for the Flu-Bros ... only 13x more people needed to catch it (and 13x more people die supposedly) until "herd immunity" ... France current death toll ~30k x13 ~~ 390k total .. for example, without better therapies (which exist but are currently being denied by establishment Vaxx-bros), other interventions, etc.

You are so pathetic r0ach.

1) How do you die "supposedly"? Are they sinking the bodies in the ocean with cement shoes?

Suppose you die.
You know, from anything but COV.

I have a feeling I know which way this is going to go, when you tamp down a fire to coals and then pour gasoline on the coals you get a predictable response. But hey, maybe "this time it will be different"....

Let's check back in 2 months. Place your bets folks, just remember that chip you're betting with is your life.

You gamble and you play with your life, every time you go out of your house, and into the herd.
It's called a society.

I'll take my chances, thank you, like every.single.fucking.time.

[VB1001]

infofront I have an error in the ATH poll, I see the option "never".
Also, the poll does not work for me, it does not let me vote what I want,
we will have ATH in 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 and so on every year.




https://studio.glassnode.com/metrics?a=BTC&m=addresses.Count&zoom=

[Biodom]

Question: How can you not hold when we all know that you'll make a boat-load (lotsa money) in the next 18 months?

I am pretty sure that the dynamic is referred to as:
 information asymmetry.

So, many of us should feel good that we both recognize the quality information that we have in regards to bitcoin, and we are also ready, willing and able to act upon such information asymmetry.  Sure, BTC price dynamics to the upside could take a while to play out, such as in the ball park of another 18 months.

And, hey, there are many of us, also ,who have not been greedy with our possession of asymmetric information.  I have read a lot of stories in this thread, over the years, about many attempts that several of us BTC HODLers/accumulators have made to share bitcoin related information with various regular peeps, and sometimes it just takes time for many people to come around and either start to better understand the bitcoin related information that is presented to them and also to figure out ways to meaningfully take actions such as setting up accounts in order that they can begin to accumulate BTC (or perhaps other means to accomplish such accumulation) that will benefit them in response to having had received such asymmetric information.

Interesting points.
I know that sometimes a VERY important piece of information is presented here, but it is difficult to ascertain what it actually means (a few moves downstream) and whether to take action and how much action to take.

Here is an interesting story (of information being here on WO but not being processed [by myself] correctly or rather timely)...
In mid Feb 2020 US stock market was scaling new highs despite CV warnings and Apple suddenly warning about Q1 results. Amazingly, market AND AAPL went to ATH a week or two later. I was flabbergasted as I was contemplated buying VIX calls, yet market was dismissive of any danger of upcoming volatility.

At that time @filippone actually posted here that Italy is starting to experience some CV related stress in Lombardy. I looked at it, but was quite busy on both Thu and Fri (Feb 20 and 21) and did not buy any calls (was thinking of buying VIX25 calls that were going for $0.4 or $0.5 with VIX being at around 17 or so). So, I was thinking of probably doing this trade on Monday, Feb 24, but suddenly there were more developments in Italy over the weekend and on Feb 24 SP500 opened up with a huge gap down and VIX was at 25 already. Looking back, I still could have bought VIX25 or VIX30 calls and make 10X instead of 100X, but I looked at VIX during SARS and it never went above 30ish, so I decided to punt and did not move.

I am telling this story just to illustrate that sometimes even when your mental model is eventually proved to be correct, you still might hold back and/or do not move in time or in scale. Of course, you can say that someone could have bought those calls as soon as China made it official in January, but at that time nobody could have predicted with certainty that it would spread (SARS did not) especially since they were dealing with it apparently effectively (for the time being).

To see "proper" aggressive trading behavior and scaling into position by PTJ watch this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uYjL1uY2rv8

[Cryptotourist]

Now we get to see what happens when you re-add bodies to the pool.

Numbers will keep going down.

Lockdowns in almost every country were a joke.

So easing restrictions will not change anything.

Numbers will keep going down.

The US looks like it has it under control, because New York is huge and has it under control.  This skews the national numbers.  But it’s not under control in other States.

If anyone can understand exponential growth, it is this thread.

Please stop.
This thread is about BTC's exponential growth, not hypothetical COV deaths.

Sadly not.
Herd immunity still very far away

Stay home hv_, stay safe, never go out again. Ever.
And by the time you do come out of your cave, mutated COV strains will grant you your wish ASAP.

[Cryptotourist]

Regarding mindrust. I'll try to summarize his in my view very controversial explanations (if not contradictory with the sound mind). He sold at $4Kish, because:

1. He was shocked in the middle of the night and the fear made him sell.
2. He was overinvested, which in his case meant $40K in bitcoins and $80K fiat reserves.   Many of us are 100% in Bitcoin regarding fiat savings, including myself. In his case mindrust had the luxury to defend his positons by buying more at lower prices. Or just wait for the recovery, which is only a matter of when, not if.
3. He felt betrayed because holders decided to sell and abandon ship. In reality not many holders sold everything. Rather many sold small portions of their stash at the same time in preparation for the next weeks without income.
4. He bought one whole bitcoin just before the crash and having 10 bitcoins turned into a heavy dissapointment. I also bought a greater amount than usual just before the crash. So what?
5. Tether is scam and when it dies, Bitcoin will die too. I can remember 2017 when tether almost died and logically people bought bitcoins with it, so the price increased 3x.
6. Bitcoin is too volatile, while the fiat and other assets are more stable. Yeah, sure. Crude oil, ahem. Fiat printers brrrr causing international financial crisis and inflations, ahem.
7. Covid-19 is so scary, so no point in keeping his bitcoins. Seriously? I can understand this only if someone is sick of some nasty illness requiring a lot of money for the treatment. Although, many of us would prefer another way of finding the money for that.
8. It is better to trade shitcoins because they are more volatile than Bitcoin?!?!?!?. For his bad luck shitcoins are doing really bad. As always.
9. It is better to trade USD vs EUR, since there was a lot of volatility recently. For his bad luck the exchange rate is almost frozen in the last weeks.

I think the only reason for mindrust sell was No. 1. The next reasons he made up as excuses not to buy again at $4500, as he claimed.  I'm really sorry for him because these two decisions obviously made him unhappy. And it is all about hope and happiness, which Bitcoin brings to the true holders. He may not realize it but he is becoming slowly into the next r0ach.

Nice story of what might have happened.
But, things almost never are what they appear to be.

1. r0ach is a BTC whale. He uses this thread to manipulate sentiment (well, try to anyway).
2. r0ach is not one person. It is a team working together, with multiple accounts each. Given the timing, mindrust could be.
3. r0ach uses state of the art tech. J tech and bots. This is what he does.

And as they say in my village: "From the drunk and from the crazy, you will hear the truth". #both

[El duderino_]

I will update this one... as mindrust lost his interest in doing so

[JayJuanGee]

Question: How can you not hold when we all know that you'll make a boat-load (lotsa money) in the next 18 months?

I am pretty sure that the dynamic is referred to as:
 information asymmetry.

So, many of us should feel good that we both recognize the quality information that we have in regards to bitcoin, and we are also ready, willing and able to act upon such information asymmetry.  Sure, BTC price dynamics to the upside could take a while to play out, such as in the ball park of another 18 months.

And, hey, there are many of us, also ,who have not been greedy with our possession of asymmetric information.  I have read a lot of stories in this thread, over the years, about many attempts that several of us BTC HODLers/accumulators have made to share bitcoin related information with various regular peeps, and sometimes it just takes time for many people to come around and either start to better understand the bitcoin related information that is presented to them and also to figure out ways to meaningfully take actions such as setting up accounts in order that they can begin to accumulate BTC (or perhaps other means to accomplish such accumulation) that will benefit them in response to having had received such asymmetric information.

Interesting points.
I know that sometimes a VERY important piece of information is presented here, but it is difficult to ascertain what it actually means (a few moves downstream) and whether to take action and how much action to take.

Here is an interesting story (of information being here on WO but not being processed [by myself] correctly or rather timely)...
In mid Feb 2020 US stock market was scaling new highs despite CV warnings and Apple suddenly warning about Q1 results. Amazingly, market AND AAPL went to ATH a week or two later. I was flabbergasted as I was contemplated buying VIX calls, yet market was dismissive of any danger of upcoming volatility.

At that time @filippone actually posted here that Italy is starting to experience some CV related stress in Lombardy. I looked at it, but was quite busy on both Thu and Fri (Feb 20 and 21) and did not buy any calls (was thinking of buying VIX25 calls that were going for $0.4 or $0.5 with VIX being at around 17 or so). So, I was thinking of probably doing this trade on Monday, Feb 24, but suddenly there were more developments in Italy over the weekend and on Feb 24 SP500 opened up with a huge gap down and VIX was at 25 already. Looking back, I still could have bought VIX25 or VIX30 calls and make 10X instead of 100X, but I looked at VIX during SARS and it never went above 30ish, so I decided to punt and did not move.

I am telling this story just to illustrate that sometimes even when your mental model is eventually proved to be correct, you still might hold back and/or do not move in time or in scale. Of course, you can say that someone could have bought those calls as soon as China made it official in January, but at that time nobody could have predicted with certainty that it would spread (SARS did not) especially since they were dealing with it apparently effectively (for the time being).

To see "proper" aggressive trading behavior and scaling into position by PTJ watch this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uYjL1uY2rv8

I agree that there are levels of assymetric information, but if we try to take in too much information, then we are likely going to be paralyzed anyhow, and there are NOT too many regular peeps in this thread who actually are trying to guess and trade the short term BTC price movements.

Seems to me that the most prevalent and even successful strategies involving BTC involve merely establish some kind of prudent level of DCA and buying on dips, and sure maybe sometimes the BTC portfolio will not be in profits, but hopefully most people who at least get off zero and begin to accumulate BTC will have positive results as long as their timeline is decently long 4 years plus and even longer.

Sometimes also many of us have to walk before we can run, so we may not be able either act upon some kind of great information or even to recognize the information as being great if we have NOT already put ourselves into a position in which acting is fairly easy.. just one more step as opposed to a whole lot of steps that we would not be able to accomplish if we had not taken some earlier preparations... you know the expression, luck is the place where preparation meets opportunity.

So, frequently quite a bit of action has to be taken in order to prepare, and I frequently will tell people to get to know their own situation such as cash flow, other investments, view of bitcoin as compared with other investments, risk tolerance, timeline, time and skills to learn and to manage and tweak portfolio, including trading.  It can take a long time to figure out ones own situation, too, but at some point, small actions can be taken while continuing to learn and to tweak, so if we just analyze and we do not act then we might not be in a good place to take advantage of some opportunities that might be staring us in the face.. but we have not taken adequate preparatory steps.. and a decent amount of those preparation steps take active engagement rather than just reading about it in threads like this... but reading about it can be a start and a motivator, too.

[El duderino_]

https://twitter.com/danheld/status/1261134631354523648?s=20

Data from
@skewdotcom
https://twitter.com/danheld/status/1261134728473669634?s=20

[jbreher]

Everyone is saying by 2023 we will be rich.

We will be rich by 2021. By 2023 we will be filthy rich.  

Nobody knows what will happen

Yes we do !

Of course we do.

But what if we're already rich?

Haha.

What's the way to end up with a small fortune in the music business?

Start with a very large fortune.

hmmmm, you didn't scan back did you? I already snagged the merit so I'll just pass it forward, lol

.....
Haha.

What's the way to end up with a small fortune in the music business?

Start with a large fortune.

Sorry. Didn't occur to me that it was a meritable offense. Rectified.