Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Millionero]

Some weeks ago there was a discussion here of risk vs volatility and so on, and somebody posted the mathematical definition of risk (in the context we're discussing).  It's not volatility.  Anybody can link to that?

[1714852820]

1714852820

[El duderino_]

I am willing to take the risk.

Golden rule: don't risk more than you could afford to lose.  

Or take a good risk with insane fundamentals and potential... and adjust your lifestyle if things get difficult on the way

[mindrust]

I am willing to take the risk.

Golden rule: don't risk more than you could afford to lose.  

Or take a good risk with insane fundamentals and potential... and adjust your lifestyle if things get difficult on the way

Indeed, If the fundamentals of the asset are stronk af, that's the route you should pick. Can't deny that.

But then, that's not taking risks if the you are 100% sure about the potential and the fundamentals of the asset (you know something that others don't) that is being clever than the rest. That's when you go all-in.

If there is one thing I am sure about, it is that I can't be 100% sure about anything.*   %99.99 maybe, not 100%.

That means I am not sure about this* neither. Whoops.

[machasm]

I am willing to take the risk.

Golden rule: don't risk more than you could afford to lose.  

Or take a good risk with insane fundamentals and potential... and adjust your lifestyle if things get difficult on the way

Indeed, If the fundamentals of the asset are stronk af, that's the route you should pick. Can't deny that.

But then, that's not taking risks if the you are 100% sure about the potential and the fundamentals of the asset (you know something that others don't) that is being clever than the rest. That's when you go all-in.

If there is one thing I am sure about, it is that I can't be 100% sure about anything.*   %99.99 maybe, not 100%.

That means I am not sure about this* neither. Whoops.

Sorry mindrust but this just sounds like pussy talk to me.
The WO gang have balls of steel.

[AlcoHoDL]

@mindrust: I'll say this, with good intentions:

I fear that you're going to feel really bad soon... To the point of going insane. Just try to prepare yourself psychologically for this eventuality.

[mindrust]

@mindrust: I'll say this, with good intentions:

I fear that you're going to feel really bad soon... To the point of going insane. Just try to prepare yourself psychologically for this eventuality.

I don't believe I will.

I mean I still got both my arms and legs, didn't get covid19 (yet), got some decent FIAT in my bank, still making money from my work, I don't expect to get struck by lightning soon neither, even though the possibility is not zero.

What if BTC goes to new ATH's? Why would I be mad about it? I already got some exposure there. If it goes up a lot, that's fine. It is free money anyway.

I didn't suicide for not buying btc from $100 even though I saw it exactly at that price. Why now...

No thanks I am fine, hopefully will  keep being fine.

[Paashaas]

I am willing to take the risk.

Golden rule: don't risk more than you could afford to lose.  

Or take a good risk with insane fundamentals and potential... and adjust your lifestyle if things get difficult on the way

I went all-in Bitcoin. Never had any regret, fundamentals has always been rock solid.

[El duderino_]

@mindrust: I'll say this, with good intentions:

I fear that you're going to feel really bad soon... To the point of going insane. Just try to prepare yourself psychologically for this eventuality.

I don't believe I will.

I mean I still got both my arms and legs, didn't get covid19 (yet), got some decent FIAT in my bank, still making money from my work, I don't expect to get struck by lightning soon neither, even though the possibility is not zero.

What if BTC goes to new ATH's? Why would I be mad about it? I already got some exposure there. If it goes up a lot, that's fine. It is free money anyway.

I didn't suicide for not buying btc $100 even though I saw it exactly at that price. Why now...

No thanks I am fine, hopefully will  keep being fine.

@mindrust.... you always have had a solid DCA strategy for everyone to follow, Pitt you didn’t followed it yourself...

For the rest you fall under the people of the famous Satoshi quote, we all know which one

“ If you don't believe it or don't get it, I don't have the time to try to convince you, sorry”

I honestly do feel sorry as a member as long involved as you... that this line is appropriate to your case...

[mindrust]

My DCA strategy was going rock solid while I wasn't greedy, the moment my greed took over, It stopped working.

I have a new strategy now...

It will work unless it doesn't. I am not willing to share the results here though.

[El duderino_]

My DCA strategy was going rock solid while I wasn't greedy, the moment my greed took over, It stopped working.

I have a new strategy now...

It will work unless it doesn't. I am not willing to share the results here though.

You can share everything.... though I don’t think it’s very informative whiteout something of BTC supporting it...

Though I do hope you buy back 1 coin and slowly buy when possible

[mindrust]

Though I do hope you buy back 1 coin and slowly buy when possible

I will get to 1 full coin. (at least) Not instantly but I will.

[El duderino_]

Though I do hope you buy back 1 coin and slowly buy when possible

I will get to 1 full coin. (at least) Not instantly but I will.

Good then your future is set

[mindrust]

Though I do hope you buy back 1 coin and slowly buy when possible

I will get to 1 full coin. (at least) Not instantly but I will.

Good then your future is set

Not sure about it. To me, it is just another fun lottery ticket.   I stopped being so obsessive with bitcoin or crypto. Chasing some other obsession now.  

Found some other way to keep my brain busy.

[El duderino_]

Though I do hope you buy back 1 coin and slowly buy when possible

I will get to 1 full coin. (at least) Not instantly but I will.

Good then your future is set

Not sure about it. To me, it is just another fun lottery ticket.   I stopped being so obsessive with bitcoin or crypto. Chasing some other obsession now.  

Found some other way to keep my brain busy.

I just don’t hope it’s a financial one that requires good judgement and decisions

[mindrust]

I just don’t hope it’s a financial one that requires good judgement and decisions

Nope, I learned to not get emotional or obsessive with my financial decisions. My finances will do well automatically without me interfering.

It is something else man it feels so good you all need to try some of that stuff but no I'll keep it to myself. 

[Millionero]

My DCA strategy was going rock solid while I wasn't greedy, the moment my greed took over, It stopped working.

I have a new strategy now...

It will work unless it doesn't. I am not willing to share the results here though.

It's like the saying, if you want something done right, do it yourself.
The corollary is this:  don't tell people what you're doing, lest they talk you out of it.
In other words, you're on the right track.

man it feels so good

[Millionero]

In this post
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg54335646#msg54335646
I garbled the instructions for generating a BIP39 12 word seed from entropy on the command line.
To illustrate, in the example below, I show the generation of a BIP39 seed from sample entropy

Code:

ENT (128 bits) = c4bbcb1fbec99d65bf59d85c8cb62ee2

sha256 hash

~$ echo -n 'c4bbcb1fbec99d65bf59d85c8cb62ee2' | xxd -r -p | sha256sum -b
b75613f61c9f555acefaaccf3abfa76e7775e8c72fc5043de6a1bae694d3ecb9 *-

checksum = first 4 bits (first hex character) of hash = b

entropy + appended checksum (132 bits)
hex:
c4bbcb1fbec99d65bf59d85c8cb62ee2b
binary:
110001001011101111001011000111111011111011001001100111010110010110111111010110011101100001011100100011001011011000101110111000101011

132 concatenated bits split into 12 words of 11 bits each:

binary word	decimal		github		BIP39 mnemonic word
				wordlist
				index	

11000100101	1573		1574		seven
11011110010	1778		1779		tattoo
11000111111	1599		1600		side
01111101100	1004		1005		laugh
10011001110	1230		1231		oil
10110010110	1430		1431		ready
11111101011	2027		2028		word
00111011000	472		473		deposit
01011100100	740		741		frame
01100101101	813		814		grant
10001011101	1117		1118		merry
11000101011	1579		1580		shell

As explained in the earlier post, the github wordlist is numbered 1-2048 when it should be numbered 0-2047.

links

BIP39 mediawiki:
   https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/BIP_0039

BIP39 word list:
   https://github.com/bitcoin/bips/blob/master/bip-0039/english.txt

Ian Coleman's mnemonic code converter (click "Show entropy details"):
   https://iancoleman.io/bip39/

BIP32 Deterministic Key Generator
   https://bip32jp.github.io/english/

You can check the results of your command line operations on Ian Coleman's code converter.  
His converter works in both directions:  input entropy and get seed, or input seed and see entropy.

[serveria.com]

My DCA strategy was going rock solid while I wasn't greedy, the moment my greed took over, It stopped working.

I have a new strategy now...

It will work unless it doesn't. I am not willing to share the results here though.

It was not the strategy that stopped working it was something else that did... 

[serveria.com]

@mindrust: I'll say this, with good intentions:

I fear that you're going to feel really bad soon... To the point of going insane. Just try to prepare yourself psychologically for this eventuality.

I don't believe I will.

I mean I still got both my arms and legs, didn't get covid19 (yet), got some decent FIAT in my bank, still making money from my work, I don't expect to get struck by lightning soon neither, even though the possibility is not zero.

What if BTC goes to new ATH's? Why would I be mad about it? I already got some exposure there. If it goes up a lot, that's fine. It is free money anyway.

I didn't suicide for not buying btc from $100 even though I saw it exactly at that price. Why now...

No thanks I am fine, hopefully will  keep being fine.

Sounds like youre trying to convince yourself you never needed BTC 

[serveria.com]

Though I do hope you buy back 1 coin and slowly buy when possible

I will get to 1 full coin. (at least) Not instantly but I will.

Good then your future is set

Not sure about it. To me, it is just another fun lottery ticket.   I stopped being so obsessive with bitcoin or crypto. Chasing some other obsession now.  

Found some other way to keep my brain busy.

So, what is your new obsession? Perhaps we'll just dump BTC and switch to your newer, more profitable investment?