Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JimboToronto]

Even more importantly, we do not hide out face in western cultures. Leave that to the muslims. Masks are an overall bad idea.

And hoodies. Ban hoodies.

Never liked em. They seem very slumlordy. Sure.

Except of course for practical reasons like lung or cold weather protection.

Then why suggest it? You horrible person.

Can't have surgeons hiding their faces during operations. Good thing they wear name tags.

Maybe we should microchip them too for positive identification.

[dragonvslinux]

'may' and '$8,800' are quite a stretch  

in bitcoin anything can happen, being too confident and getting cocky will get you rekt, im always a "may" and never a "will" with bitcoins price

That's why you "may" "will" have abandoned your "cocky" get-rich-quick (on leverage) BTC price prediction thread, when you realized that using leverage in your trading might work for a while, but is likely going to cause you to become "rekt" sooner rather than if you had not used leverage - especially when you are too anxious and unreasonable in trying to 20x or 200x or was it 2000x your money, betting on one direction and not engaging in reasonable risk management (another way of suggesting that betting in both directions might be better).  

What level might not be "too confident" and "too cocky"?  Does reasonableness exist when playing with leverage and putting most or all of your eggs the basket of in one direction?  A variation of a Martingale strategy, right?

I agree that the increased confidence of successful leveraged trade will likely get you rekt, if you keep on increasing your risk. Though it also depends how you are taking your profit (if you are taking it at all). If you're not taking profit and keep re-investing it each time, you'll get rekt. But if you're taking your profit, especially if you're taking your profit in BTC, then even when your initial investment gets rekt you'll still be on top with your BTC.

Then again, I didn't follow all of the referenced thread. I assume it's re-investing profit, which is dumb if so.

[JayJuanGee]

'may' and '$8,800' are quite a stretch  

in bitcoin anything can happen, being too confident and getting cocky will get you rekt, im always a "may" and never a "will" with bitcoins price

That's why you "may" "will" have abandoned your "cocky" get-rich-quick (on leverage) BTC price prediction thread, when you realized that using leverage in your trading might work for a while, but is likely going to cause you to become "rekt" sooner rather than if you had not used leverage - especially when you are too anxious and unreasonable in trying to 20x or 200x or was it 2000x your money, betting on one direction and not engaging in reasonable risk management (another way of suggesting that betting in both directions might be better).  

What level might not be "too confident" and "too cocky"?  Does reasonableness exist when playing with leverage and putting most or all of your eggs the basket of in one direction?  A variation of a Martingale strategy, right?

I agree that the increased confidence of successful leveraged trade will likely get you rekt, if you keep on increasing your risk. Though it also depends how you are taking your profit (if you are taking it at all). If you're not taking profit and keep re-investing it each time, you'll get rekt. But if you're taking your profit, especially if you're taking your profit in BTC, then even when your initial investment gets rekt you'll still be on top with your BTC.

Then again, I didn't follow all of the referenced thread. I assume it's re-investing profit, which is dumb if so.

Yes.. his case seemed to have been reinvesting profits.

Thanks for keeping me from ranting too much about what I likely do not sufficiently understand in terms of personal experiences... in which, I concede that there could be ways to practically stay profitable through ongoing trading and in the long term.

So, surely, I would not be opposed to all kinds of trading, even though so many folks who trade seem to devolve into some variation of unreasonable gambling which likely causes them to get rekkt more often than they are willing to admit...

In the end, I imagine that there could be ways for a trader to ensure (or assure) that s/he remains profitable, and of course, I am not opposed to banking on what seems to be inevitable volatility in bitcoin.  I am pretty sure that there are ways to do that, even long term.

Surely stacking away profits, like you said, could be one of the possible ways to strive to ensure ongoing profits..... yet understandably, even with stacking away profits there could be some difficulties that come for a trader whose stash keeps getting depleted by wrong calls or an unlucky trading streak..   In those losing streak cases, does the trader merely add to his trading stash, and wouldn't that be cheating? or would a trader just keep making his/her bets smaller until s/he makes up for the losses, the losing streak and the seemingly ever depleting trading stash?

[JayJuanGee]

'may' and '$8,800' are quite a stretch  

in bitcoin anything can happen, being too confident and getting cocky will get you rekt, im always a "may" and never a "will" with bitcoins price

That's why you "may" "will" have abandoned your "cocky" get-rich-quick (on leverage) BTC price prediction thread, when you realized that using leverage in your short term trading might work for a while, but is likely going to cause you to become "rekt" sooner rather than if you had not used leverage - especially when you are too anxious and unreasonable in trying to 20x, 200x or was it 2000x your money, betting short term on one direction and then the other and not engaging in reasonable risk management (another way of suggesting that betting in both directions might be better..).  

What level might not be "too confident" and "too cocky"?  

Does reasonableness exist when playing with leverage and putting most or all of your eggs the basket of in one direction in short term bets?  Seems like a variation of a Martingale strategy, right?  which works, until it does not.   which works, until it completely wipes out the bettor  

Yeah your exactly right, I was quite shit at risk management back then, I have learned better now thats why I say that.

edit: I meant the discipline part of risk management, I knew what to do, just didnt do it properly back then, but I do now

Well, I am glad that you acknowledge that there is a learning experience going on with trading, yet I have my doubts that you can presume that you have fixed all of your errors and learned ironclad risk management, portfolio management or can assure that you have figured out a way to 2000x your investment without first going through a long process of showing a great track record.. which is hard as fuck to do.. not saying that it is impossible, and there are probably some decent techniques. 

Surely, I am not going to fault you for sharing techniques or even creating an ambitious thread to show your work (or your streak of luck), but I will fault you if you try to presume that you know more than other members until you have gone through the process for a while to show that you know things.. because lots of us know things, and sure some members do have better trading or TA skills than others, but the good ones tend to be very humble with their calls and seem to hedge in both directions or sometimes just pull out at certain times, and I am not even sure if that is enough to show some kind of consisting winning system.. because even the good ones admit that they lose a decent number of trades.

Anyhow, members who come off as too bold in their assertions in showing that they "know" the market direction just come off as if they are trying to sell us something, even if it is merely just elevating themselves to a kind of sorcery status, and most of us who have been around a long time realize that there are not short term BTC price prediction sorcerers, even if there might appear to be kinds of longer term sorcerers (as long as they are calling up.. but even we should appreciate that long term up is not guaranteed either).

[LUCKMCFLY]

It is good that they already consider Bitcoin as one of the best options.



Twitter: https://twitter.com/BTCstJournal/status/1275489641660141570

The dollar will also have to compete with Bitcoin, a non-sovereign cryptocurrency that shares similar attributes as other safe-haven currencies.

Source: https://thebitcoinstreetjournal.com/waning-safe-haven-status-leaves-the-dollar-vulnerable-to-bitcoin/

[dragonvslinux]

'may' and '$8,800' are quite a stretch  

in bitcoin anything can happen, being too confident and getting cocky will get you rekt, im always a "may" and never a "will" with bitcoins price

That's why you "may" "will" have abandoned your "cocky" get-rich-quick (on leverage) BTC price prediction thread, when you realized that using leverage in your trading might work for a while, but is likely going to cause you to become "rekt" sooner rather than if you had not used leverage - especially when you are too anxious and unreasonable in trying to 20x or 200x or was it 2000x your money, betting on one direction and not engaging in reasonable risk management (another way of suggesting that betting in both directions might be better).  

What level might not be "too confident" and "too cocky"?  Does reasonableness exist when playing with leverage and putting most or all of your eggs the basket of in one direction?  A variation of a Martingale strategy, right?

I agree that the increased confidence of successful leveraged trade will likely get you rekt, if you keep on increasing your risk. Though it also depends how you are taking your profit (if you are taking it at all). If you're not taking profit and keep re-investing it each time, you'll get rekt. But if you're taking your profit, especially if you're taking your profit in BTC, then even when your initial investment gets rekt you'll still be on top with your BTC.

Then again, I didn't follow all of the referenced thread. I assume it's re-investing profit, which is dumb if so.

Yes.. his case seemed to have been reinvesting profits.

Well that would explain a lot   The first tip after you have a lucky streak is to take profit until you have taken out your initial investment at minimum. Then if you want to increase your risk and become a degenerate gambler with stupid amount of leverage, you are merely doing so with the profit instead of your initial investment. That said, you're best off merely maintaining your risk (not increasing it) and playing with your new found "house money" (only profit) in order to continue making profit from your profit, so that if you get completely rekt then you still made profit at the end of the day. Then you can even try and learn your lesson and re-invest your profit with increased risk management, but not at the expense of your own capital. Hope that makes some rough sense.

Surely stacking away profits, like you said, could be one of the possible ways to strive to ensure ongoing profits..... yet understandably, even with stacking away profits there could be some difficulties that come for a trader whose stash keeps getting depleted by wrong calls or an unlucky trading streak..   In those losing streak cases, does the trader merely add to his trading stash, and wouldn't that be cheating? or would a trader just keep making his/her bets smaller until s/he makes up for the losses, the losing streak and the seemingly ever depleting trading stash?

I wouldn't recommend adding to your stash if you're on a losing streak, I'd recommend reducing your position size as well as your risk. Ideally you'd keep a record of your successful trades (be it 40%, 50%, 60% or whatever) and therefore attempt to caluclate trades based on this risk reward that can still make you money (2:1, 3:1, 4:1 or whatever). If you're losing money then adding to it isn't cheating, it's just poor risk management. If you run out of money, then you should probably not be trading at all! Instead, you'd reduce your position size to such a small amount you are effectively just practicing in the hope of trying to become a successful trader again.

I know I also got over-confident after the September 2019 breakdown that generated juicy profits for me, despite taking the profit in sats. This led me also to increase my risk, but the main different was I had already taken out my initial investment. At the point of losing a few too many trades, I quickly realised I needed to reduce position sizes and lower my risk, as it was eating away at profit. This is ultimately how you stay "afloat". But that said, I also learnt this back in late 2017 and early 2018 by taking out initial investments, that actually helped me to understand the important of booking profit (not just taking it). The main trick is to be patient I think, anyone rushing to make their money back is doing it wrong.

In a weird way, I found it a lot easier to be conservative with risk management when you are playing with the house, rather than your own capital. Not sure why. The other point is trading is a form of gambling. Just like in gambling, you calculate probabilities and take risks appropriately, doesn't matter what the game is. Anyone who thinks trading isn't a form of gambling isn't thinking straight. This doesn't mean you can't be a successful gambler, but that risking your money in order to try and make more of it is the definition of this.

[Ibian]

I am officially going on record as saying that black lives matter. They have negative value. We should get rid of them.

I am officially going on record, that I would hate-fuck you square in your asshole, you intolerant, retarded sack of shit.

How black are you anyway? Just curious. And why do you support a violent political organization that wants to eat the rich (that's you)?

[JayJuanGee]

'may' and '$8,800' are quite a stretch  

in bitcoin anything can happen, being too confident and getting cocky will get you rekt, im always a "may" and never a "will" with bitcoins price

That's why you "may" "will" have abandoned your "cocky" get-rich-quick (on leverage) BTC price prediction thread, when you realized that using leverage in your trading might work for a while, but is likely going to cause you to become "rekt" sooner rather than if you had not used leverage - especially when you are too anxious and unreasonable in trying to 20x or 200x or was it 2000x your money, betting on one direction and not engaging in reasonable risk management (another way of suggesting that betting in both directions might be better).  

What level might not be "too confident" and "too cocky"?  Does reasonableness exist when playing with leverage and putting most or all of your eggs the basket of in one direction?  A variation of a Martingale strategy, right?

I agree that the increased confidence of successful leveraged trade will likely get you rekt, if you keep on increasing your risk. Though it also depends how you are taking your profit (if you are taking it at all). If you're not taking profit and keep re-investing it each time, you'll get rekt. But if you're taking your profit, especially if you're taking your profit in BTC, then even when your initial investment gets rekt you'll still be on top with your BTC.

Then again, I didn't follow all of the referenced thread. I assume it's re-investing profit, which is dumb if so.

Yes.. his case seemed to have been reinvesting profits.

Well that would explain a lot   The first tip after you have a lucky streak is to take profit until you have taken out your initial investment at minimum. Then if you want to increase your risk and become a degenerate gambler with stupid amount of leverage, you are merely doing so with the profit instead of your initial investment. That said, you're best off merely maintaining your risk (not increasing it) and playing with your new found "house money" (only profit) in order to continue making profit from your profit, so that if you get completely rekt then you still made profit at the end of the day. Then you can even try and learn your lesson and re-invest your profit with increased risk management, but not at the expense of your own capital. Hope that makes some rough sense.

Surely stacking away profits, like you said, could be one of the possible ways to strive to ensure ongoing profits..... yet understandably, even with stacking away profits there could be some difficulties that come for a trader whose stash keeps getting depleted by wrong calls or an unlucky trading streak..   In those losing streak cases, does the trader merely add to his trading stash, and wouldn't that be cheating? or would a trader just keep making his/her bets smaller until s/he makes up for the losses, the losing streak and the seemingly ever depleting trading stash?

I wouldn't recommend adding to your stash if you're on a losing streak, I'd recommend reducing your position size as well as your risk. Ideally you'd keep a record of your successful trades (be it 40%, 50%, 60% or whatever) and therefore attempt to caluclate trades based on this risk reward that can still make you money (2:1, 3:1, 4:1 or whatever). If you're losing money then adding to it isn't cheating, it's just poor risk management. If you run out of money, then you should probably not be trading at all! Instead, you'd reduce your position size to such a small amount you are effectively just practicing in the hope of trying to become a successful trader again.

I know I also got over-confident after the September 2019 breakdown that generated juicy profits for me, despite taking the profit in sats. This led me also to increase my risk, but the main different was I had already taken out my initial investment. At the point of losing a few too many trades, I quickly realised I needed to reduce position sizes and lower my risk, as it was eating away at profit. This is ultimately how you stay "afloat". But that said, I also learnt this back in late 2017 and early 2018 by taking out initial investments, that actually helped me to understand the important of booking profit (not just taking it). The main trick is to be patient I think, anyone rushing to make their money back is doing it wrong.

In a weird way, I found it a lot easier to be conservative with risk management when you are playing with the house, rather than your own capital. Not sure why. The other point is trading is a form of gambling. Just like in gambling, you calculate probabilities and take risks appropriately, doesn't matter what the game is. Anyone who thinks trading isn't a form of gambling isn't thinking straight. This doesn't mean you can't be a successful gambler, but that risking your money in order to try and make more of it is the definition of this.

Ideally, would you not want your trading to provide you with a salary that is somewhat similar to your regular job, so that you can quit your regular job and sustain your self (and whatever standard of living you had grown accustom)?

So, let's say for example, you worked 10 or more years, and you had increased your salary to $100k, but since you had been accustomed to savings and investment with extra money, you figured out that you could live pretty decently on $75k per year, but if if you live more meagerly, you would still be comfortable with $50k per year. 

Maybe, also you had learned trading with some of your money during your years of work, and in the 10 years, you had reached a savings and investment capital of $300k that you consider to be a kind of working capital that could start out providing you $50k per year, but you wanted to target $75k as being more comfortable, and $100k would be balling.

Maybe if you pulled the fuck you lever to your regular job, then you might not have enough capital to really sustain your trading and to generate at minimum 17% per year of profits from trading.   Unrealistic? 

You probably have heard of the 4% formula that is used for having an expectation of 4% passive income, so if you are trading, you should be able to make more than 4% per year, otherwise, you are not beating passive income expectations, right?  I might be asking too many questions, and surely there would be a difference between feeling comfortable to quit your day job and considering both how much capital that you have and what minimal level of return do you need to receive from trading in order to be able to sustain yourself, and whether you are being realistic with yourself.

Whether you have a day job or not, if you take up trading as a hobby, and you practice trading for 5 to 10 years, then if you are trying to be realistic in attempting to measure your historical performance, you should get a pretty decent idea regarding what level of return are you getting from your trading activities, and whether you are beating the returns that you might be able to get from mere passive investing.

I already kind of know the answer to some of this, which is that there are not a lot of traders who either have been able to track their overall performance and/or have decent ideas about the extent to which their trading activities might be able to beat more passive returns.

[JayJuanGee]

How black are you anyway? Just curious.

Coffee, no cream or sugar, black. Bitter AF you cuntcasket.

Bob.. you should already appreciate that it is no win situation that you are entering... but, hey, if you want to screw up your own peace and solitude, that's all on you.

 

[Ibian]

How black are you anyway? Just curious.

Coffee, no cream or sugar, black. Bitter AF you cuntcasket.

Cool. Why do you support a violent political organization that wants to eat the rich?

[cAPSLOCK]

Glad the scene released this, I would have never known it existed otherwise.

Procol Harum Live At The Union Chapel

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oHcU7gF-mVY

Thanks. Gary in fine form. I enjoyed it.

They spend a lot of time getting the settings right on the TA-1VP. 

[Ibian]

Cool. Why do you support a violent political organization that wants to eat the rich?

Yeah, and this gets you the final Ignore. Have a nice life, bellend.

That answers nothing. And confuses me further. apparently you actually do support them? Why would you?

[DaRude]

...trollolol...

Yeah, and this gets you the final Ignore. Have a nice life, bellend.

You got more patience than i ever will

[Biodom]

TMC numbers for COVID are spiking (Harris county, Houston area).
The darned thing is probably mutating to adjust to higher temps as we were above 90F (32C) for a while already with high humidity.
No bueno... pardon my [very limited] spanish.

[Ibian]

...trollolol...

Yeah, and this gets you the final Ignore. Have a nice life, bellend.

You got more patience than i ever will

Yes, fine, it was a troll. But it was also a legit question. Both are possible shut up. Why would he support people who, given the chance, would kill him and take all his money and rape any daughters he may have? That is what commies do.

[Hueristic]

How black are you anyway? Just curious.

Coffee, no cream or sugar, black. Bitter AF you cuntcasket.

Cool. Why do you support a violent political organization that wants to eat the rich?

Probably the same reason why I'm not a psychopath yet I still support B0B Ass fucking you to death.

[Ibian]

How black are you anyway? Just curious.

Coffee, no cream or sugar, black. Bitter AF you cuntcasket.

Cool. Why do you support a violent political organization that wants to eat the rich?

Probably the same reason why I'm not a psychopath yet I still support B0B Ass fucking you to death.

I do not wish to seem ungrateful. I genuinely appreciate the offer to play with my asshole. Even if I am not into that kind of thing. It was a nice offer.

[Hueristic]

...trollolol...

Yeah, and this gets you the final Ignore. Have a nice life, bellend.

You got more patience than i ever will

Yes, fine, it was a troll. But it was also a legit question. Both are possible shut up. Why would he support people who, given the chance, would kill him and take all his money and rape any daughters he may have? That is what commies do.

You should feel proud having made about a week this time before getting back on Ignore.

[Ibian]

...trollolol...

Yeah, and this gets you the final Ignore. Have a nice life, bellend.

You got more patience than i ever will

Yes, fine, it was a troll. But it was also a legit question. Both are possible shut up. Why would he support people who, given the chance, would kill him and take all his money and rape any daughters he may have? That is what commies do.

You should feel proud having made about a week this time before getting back on Ignore.

This only implies that you will eventually unignore me. Loser. Make a decision and stick to it.

[Hueristic]

Feeling this Today.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uokp0aEiT-A

Even the Trolls can't take it away.