Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[julian071]

Elwar made the headlines! https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/jun/24/seasteading-a-vanity-project-for-the-rich-or-the-future-of-humanity

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[lightfoot]

Meantime looks like Vegatta has competition: WOKE MAN!



(It's a fucking weird series, but funny anyway)

[BitcoinGirl.Club]

Good afternoon WO!
Observing @ $9,363

All good! BTC forever !

[Ibian]

Meantime looks like Vegatta has competition: WOKE MAN!



(It's a fucking weird series, but funny anyway)

I remember when it was about ninjas and big titties. Then he became a feminist.

[Ibian]

Last 3 page summary......

Excellent, another one. Why do you support a violent political organization that wants to eat the rich?

It is very, very curious that not one of you have an answer. Not even something as simple as an affirmation or denial of said support.

[aesma]

Well, something happened. Some buy orders got filled.

'may' and '$8,800' are quite a stretch 

in bitcoin anything can happen, being too confident and getting cocky will get you rekt, im always a "may" and never a "will" with bitcoins price

That's why you "may" "will" have abandoned your "cocky" get-rich-quick (on leverage) BTC price prediction thread, when you realized that using leverage in your trading might work for a while, but is likely going to cause you to become "rekt" sooner rather than if you had not used leverage - especially when you are too anxious and unreasonable in trying to 20x or 200x or was it 2000x your money, betting on one direction and not engaging in reasonable risk management (another way of suggesting that betting in both directions might be better). 

What level might not be "too confident" and "too cocky"?  Does reasonableness exist when playing with leverage and putting most or all of your eggs the basket of in one direction?  A variation of a Martingale strategy, right?

I agree that the increased confidence of successful leveraged trade will likely get you rekt, if you keep on increasing your risk. Though it also depends how you are taking your profit (if you are taking it at all). If you're not taking profit and keep re-investing it each time, you'll get rekt. But if you're taking your profit, especially if you're taking your profit in BTC, then even when your initial investment gets rekt you'll still be on top with your BTC.

Then again, I didn't follow all of the referenced thread. I assume it's re-investing profit, which is dumb if so.

Yes.. his case seemed to have been reinvesting profits.

Well that would explain a lot  The first tip after you have a lucky streak is to take profit until you have taken out your initial investment at minimum. Then if you want to increase your risk and become a degenerate gambler with stupid amount of leverage, you are merely doing so with the profit instead of your initial investment. That said, you're best off merely maintaining your risk (not increasing it) and playing with your new found "house money" (only profit) in order to continue making profit from your profit, so that if you get completely rekt then you still made profit at the end of the day. Then you can even try and learn your lesson and re-invest your profit with increased risk management, but not at the expense of your own capital. Hope that makes some rough sense.

Surely stacking away profits, like you said, could be one of the possible ways to strive to ensure ongoing profits..... yet understandably, even with stacking away profits there could be some difficulties that come for a trader whose stash keeps getting depleted by wrong calls or an unlucky trading streak..   In those losing streak cases, does the trader merely add to his trading stash, and wouldn't that be cheating? or would a trader just keep making his/her bets smaller until s/he makes up for the losses, the losing streak and the seemingly ever depleting trading stash?

I wouldn't recommend adding to your stash if you're on a losing streak, I'd recommend reducing your position size as well as your risk. Ideally you'd keep a record of your successful trades (be it 40%, 50%, 60% or whatever) and therefore attempt to caluclate trades based on this risk reward that can still make you money (2:1, 3:1, 4:1 or whatever). If you're losing money then adding to it isn't cheating, it's just poor risk management. If you run out of money, then you should probably not be trading at all! Instead, you'd reduce your position size to such a small amount you are effectively just practicing in the hope of trying to become a successful trader again.

I know I also got over-confident after the September 2019 breakdown that generated juicy profits for me, despite taking the profit in sats. This led me also to increase my risk, but the main different was I had already taken out my initial investment. At the point of losing a few too many trades, I quickly realised I needed to reduce position sizes and lower my risk, as it was eating away at profit. This is ultimately how you stay "afloat". But that said, I also learnt this back in late 2017 and early 2018 by taking out initial investments, that actually helped me to understand the important of booking profit (not just taking it). The main trick is to be patient I think, anyone rushing to make their money back is doing it wrong.

In a weird way, I found it a lot easier to be conservative with risk management when you are playing with the house, rather than your own capital. Not sure why. The other point is trading is a form of gambling. Just like in gambling, you calculate probabilities and take risks appropriately, doesn't matter what the game is. Anyone who thinks trading isn't a form of gambling isn't thinking straight. This doesn't mean you can't be a successful gambler, but that risking your money in order to try and make more of it is the definition of this.

Ideally, would you not want your trading to provide you with a salary that is somewhat similar to your regular job, so that you can quit your regular job and sustain your self (and whatever standard of living you had grown accustom)?

So, let's say for example, you worked 10 or more years, and you had increased your salary to $100k, but since you had been accustomed to savings and investment with extra money, you figured out that you could live pretty decently on $75k per year, but if if you live more meagerly, you would still be comfortable with $50k per year. 

Maybe, also you had learned trading with some of your money during your years of work, and in the 10 years, you had reached a savings and investment capital of $300k that you consider to be a kind of working capital that could start out providing you $50k per year, but you wanted to target $75k as being more comfortable, and $100k would be balling.

Maybe if you pulled the fuck you lever to your regular job, then you might not have enough capital to really sustain your trading and to generate at minimum 17% per year of profits from trading.   Unrealistic? 

You probably have heard of the 4% formula that is used for having an expectation of 4% passive income, so if you are trading, you should be able to make more than 4% per year, otherwise, you are not beating passive income expectations, right?  I might be asking too many questions, and surely there would be a difference between feeling comfortable to quit your day job and considering both how much capital that you have and what minimal level of return do you need to receive from trading in order to be able to sustain yourself, and whether you are being realistic with yourself.

Whether you have a day job or not, if you take up trading as a hobby, and you practice trading for 5 to 10 years, then if you are trying to be realistic in attempting to measure your historical performance, you should get a pretty decent idea regarding what level of return are you getting from your trading activities, and whether you are beating the returns that you might be able to get from mere passive investing.

I already kind of know the answer to some of this, which is that there are not a lot of traders who either have been able to track their overall performance and/or have decent ideas about the extent to which their trading activities might be able to beat more passive returns.

Is living off trading not just another kind of slave wagery, except you have more stress and can never relax ?

I guess pure day traders closing all positions every evening might be able to relax, but still.

To retire and feel free I would need well diversified investments, including real estate, stuff that will always be in demand like health care, probably geographically diversified too.

[BitcoinGirl.Club]

Elwar made the headlines! https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/jun/24/seasteading-a-vanity-project-for-the-rich-or-the-future-of-humanity

In an introductory video, he describes the planet’s oceans as “a sort of research and development zone where we could discover better means of governance”, and says that seasteading could “provide the technology for thousands of people to start their own nano-nation on the high seas”, giving people “opportunities to peacefully test new ideas about living together”. The most successful seasteads, he says, “will become thriving new societies, inspiring change around the world”.

Source: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/jun/24/seasteading-a-vanity-project-for-the-rich-or-the-future-of-humanity

Like it!

[LFC_Bitcoin]

It is REALLY WEIRD that there are so many commies here. Bitcoin itself is about as capitalistic as anything can get, yet people are supporting violent rioters. Really really strange.

I lean moderately to the right, I’m absolutely no commie & I don’t support the protests/marches at all.

All Lives Matter

[aesma]

I had heard of the venture in French Polynesia but didn't follow up on it.

Those who thought starting there was a good idea were quite delusional. Their aims are "libertarian" while French Polynesia is more like "communism" or rather cronyism, paid for by mainland France.

And French Polynesia is part of France, as is its EEZ. There are French navy warships there to defend it, it's not up to FP to give control of it away !

They should have tried with independent island countries in the Pacific.

Even the French territory of New Caledonia would have been a better bet, there at least there is a referendum on independence on the cards (although I doubt independence will win).

[Tuco Benedicto Pacifico]

[RE: ibian) People finally starting to see R0ach 2.0

worse, even roach had rare decent posts about stuff when he wasnt on his usual  nazi rants.

ibian? zip, nada, zero. no use information at all.

I continue to hope that you die painfully. You have shown no sign of deserving any better.

Incidentally, the welfare state is the direct reason for the... underwhelming youth we have today. And the welfare state was instituted by Boomers. You really are the worst generation.

my feeling toward you are the same.. pity.

you DO know you can educate yourself. things called books. try them sometime. i made it out of some very dark periods in my past. i didnt blame others, i sucked it up and bettered myself.

and again, unlike you i wish no harm on you. just wish you had some sort of education.

however, snowflakes probably better not try this, the crying rooms (whatever theyre called) are all full now.

Thumbs up all the way! (Altough I didn`t get your last sentence..)

[Krubster]

[RE: ibian) People finally starting to see R0ach 2.0

worse, even roach had rare decent posts about stuff when he wasnt on his usual  nazi rants.

ibian? zip, nada, zero. no use information at all.

I continue to hope that you die painfully. You have shown no sign of deserving any better.

Incidentally, the welfare state is the direct reason for the... underwhelming youth we have today. And the welfare state was instituted by Boomers. You really are the worst generation.

Wow, just wow. You're such a miserable person. You must be a delight to be around.

The funny thing is that whenever the UN list the World Happiest Report, Denmark always end up in the top. I guess you're the exception that confirms the rule. Incel much?

But hey, to your defense you have to speak danish. I'd also be upset if I had to count like this




Congratulations to be the first that made it to my ignore list.

[bkbirge]

Is everyone so bored that they feel the need to keep engaging the racist trolls here? Here, some news...

Coeuré, however, denied that he had seen evidence of what some are calling an arms race for a CBDC, especially between China and the U.S.

“I don’t think there’s a race, really,” Coeuré said. “At this stage, we just want to learn from what the others are doing.”

https://cointelegraph.com/news/bank-for-international-settlements-calls-cbdcs-a-potential-sea-change

[Ibian]

Wow, just wow.

The mating call of the useless leftist. You will feel right at home here.

Why do you support a violent political organization that wants to eat the rich?

[Krubster]

Wow, just wow.

The mating call of the useless leftist. You will feel right at home here.

Why do you support a violent political organization that wants to eat the rich?

I don't want to argue with you, I wouldn't stand a chance

[Tuco Benedicto Pacifico]

Well, something happened. Some buy orders got filled.

Is living off trading not just another kind of slave wagery, except you have more stress and can never relax ?

I guess pure day traders closing all positions every evening might be able to relax, but still.

To retire and feel free I would need well diversified investments, including real estate, stuff that will always be in demand like health care, probably geographically diversified too.

I know from a bit of experience that only a very, very select few can stay net positive on a consistent basis. Some of them daytrade, some others do swing trading, i. e. longer timeframes and therefore staying in the markets for days or even weeks, up to months really. I know of one guy who got kicked out by his broker because he refused to make them profit from him, even in the long run. Those guys are very rarely stressed, if ever. They know what they are doing, why they are doing it, and specifically when to engage in a trade and when to exit. Plus top-notch Money/Risk Management. Some come up with very creative market models which I have never seen in any of the "How to trade" books.

The guys/gurus who advertise "trading courses" or "seminars/books" most likely live off of those.

So your assumption about being your own wage slave is true for a lot of the losing traders, which means practically everyone who sees that as his line of work and doesn`t have a steady job (and loses money). Some see it coming rather quickly and can pull the plug soon enough, others drown in a downward/losing spiral. Stress levels for those who want to "re-gain the losses quickly" are most likely increasing day by day. They go to bed thinking about this one trade of theirs that is in the market, praying to wake up to a 10X-profit the next morning. The hobby traders throw away some of their money and, as long as they don`t get blinded by early winning trades, eventually end up quitting or just viewing it as a way to kill time.

3rd sentence is the way to go imho.

[AlcoHoDL]

Excellent, another one. Why do you support a violent political organization that wants to eat the rich?

It is very, very curious that not one of you have an answer. Not even something as simple as an affirmation or denial of said support.

Why do you assume that anyone disagreeing with your statement "we should get rid of black people because their lives have negative value", automatically means that they support "a violent political organization that wants to eat the rich"?

To directly answer your question, I'm totally against, and do not support, any organization that wants to eat humans.

[nutildah]

Just felt like ranking the most boring things on WO on a scale from Vince to McMahon. Carry on.

[Tuco Benedicto Pacifico]

Ugh...Messed up reply in the quotes section is messed up..sorry.

Also, Sergej seems to be on fire.

[JimboToronto]

Good morning Bitcoinland.

Nothing new. Still bouncing along in the $9xxx range... currently $9396USD/$12745CAD (Bitcoinaverage).

Up a little yesterday, down a little today. Tomorrow? Who knows? (not the noobs with their TA charts who think they have it all figured out.)

The Bitcoin roller coaster at its finest.

trololol

What an absolute douche.

Ignored.

People finally starting to see R0ach 2.0

Rude.

Meh, you're aiming for this kind of attention...

Gee, do ya really think so? 

Trolls will be trolls.

I don't usually put them on ignore though, just the more obnoxious ones like Matthecat or Notlambchop. Most I simply treat as a source of amusement. Some like Proudhon or Kwuckduck can be absolutely hilarious.

Most of our resident neo-McCarthyist's rants are fairly harmless and mildly humorous but this one crosses the line.

He's obviously an infantile attention seeker, unhappy with his own life, looking for someone to blame.

And the welfare state was instituted by Boomers. You really are the worst generation.

[Krubster]

Price projection for the next few days

Long profit target and short profit target met, not sure if we continue lower now

I merited you because you predicted that short time movement pretty spot on, with a local top at ~$9,750 with a subsequent retracement. However, when I look at the longer time frame of your chart, you predict a big drop after breaking the multi year down-trend at ~$10,500. What's your reason to this? A fakeout?

I expect that it will go quite a bit higher if we break $10,500, before any retracement/correction.