Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[dragonvslinux]

Bitcoin's 30 day volatility reaches new 2020 low as well as lowest level since April 2nd 2019 (that's 15 months).



Whoever isn't expecting a big move in either direction soon is gonna get caught out!

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[bitebits]

^ Bitcoin does the unexpected. If you expect it to move, it does not. When you expect it to not move, it does. When you then expect it to not move, because you expect it does, it moves. It takes a few years to accept the only one that should not move is yourself. Just hodl.

[jojo69]

[AlcoHoDL]

Whoever isn't expecting a big move in either direction soon is gonna get caught out!

A HoDLer is always expecting price fluctuations, but doesn't really care much about short-term price direction, because he/she is in it for the long term, and he/she knows that there is only one long-term direction, and that is upwards.

The ones that are worried about getting caught out, are the traders, who really trade their peace of mind for short-term profits. I played the trading game a few times. I ended up with some small profits, but at the expense of being literally glued to my computer screen, not being able to sleep properly, worrying about price action all the time, constantly placing/replacing/canceling orders and always being on edge. Thanks, but no thanks!

HoDLers set long-term goals, observe and prepare, but never get caught out, because they never act on impulse.

[JayJuanGee]

Flat line bitcoin price.
Price appreciation #SOON...
Inexorable!!!

Just reading an article suggesting we should be at $12,000 right now, that it’s a fair price. Article says we should break upwards soon as the BTC 90-Day active supply has soared to pre-2017 bull run levels.

I’m itching for a fresh HOPIUM injection so hope the above plays out.

We frequently get dumps during long holiday weekends, but hey, we sometimes get pumps too..  

Gosh, I am not even sure if I am mentally capable of making any kind of prediction regarding the odds of pumps versus dumps for this particular weekend... or another possibility is that we remain flat.. cannot really rule out flat, either... how about price movement does not count as either a pump or a dump unless it can at least achieve 2%... which would be about $200-ish... so I am going to say $8800-$9,300 is flat.. and if it breaks above or below that range, then we have either a dump or a pump, respectively...

Let's say that the weekend ends at 00:00 UTC monday.. or is that too screwed up to drag the weekend for so long?  Weekly and daily candles close at 00:00 on Sunday.. but are we talking about candles or actually the ability to transfer money after the banks open back up?

So could we substitute 50/50 for 33.3/33.3/33.3.... does that even add up?... maybe I could give an additional .1 to whichever one that we believe to be most likely... it's easier to dump than pump when the banks are closed, but we have stable coins that are supposed to be 24/7...  

I am refusing to answer the question, and I prefer to just wait and see... and then after it happens (whatever "it" ends up being), to proclaim, "who could have known?"!!!!!    

 

How are we supposed to trust the TA of people who don't even explain their TA with "animal does stereotypically animal thing"?

Exactamente!!!!!

You deserve at least one merit for that profound WObservation....  and perhaps even loads of +WO member tokens...

TLDR: Pics or it didn't happen (or not gonna happen).

[fillippone]

Electrum released version 4.0:

Electrum 4.0. is finally released. It supports PSBT, Lightning, Watchtowers, Submarine swaps. Please take time to read the release notes before you enable Lightning. Thanks to all contributors! electrum.org/#download

https://twitter.com/electrumwallet/status/1279102890456604674?s=21

# Release 4.0.1 - (July 3, 2020)
 * Lightning Network support (experimental)
   - Our implementation of Lightning relies on Electrum servers to
     query channel states. Since servers can lie about the state of a
     channel, users should either use a server that they trust, or
     setup a private watchtower (see below). A watchtower is also
     recommended for lightning wallets that remain offline for
     extended periods of time (the default CSV 'to_self_delay' is 1
     week). Please note that Electrum Personal Server (EPS) cannot be
     used with lightning wallets, because channels funding addresses
     are arbitrary.
   - Lightning funds cannot be restored from seed. Instead, users need
     to create static backups of their channels. Static backups cannot
     be used to perform lightning transactions, they can only be used
     to trigger a remote-force-close of a channel.
   - Lightning-enabled wallet files must not be copied. Instead, a
     backup of the wallet can be created from the Qt menu, and it will
     contain static backups of all its channels. Backups can also be
     exported for each channel (e.g. via QR code), and imported in
     another wallet. Since backups are encrypted with a key derived
     from the wallet's xpub, they can only be imported into another
     instance of the same wallet, or a watch-only version of it. The
     force-close is not triggered automatically when the backup is
     imported; imported backups can live inside a wallet file.
   - Lightning can be enabled in the GUI (Wallet>Information) or from
     the CLI (init_lightning). Lightning is currently restricted to HD
     p2wpkh wallets (including watch-only and hardware wallets). The
     Qt GUI, CLI/RPC, and the kivy GUI (Android) all have LN support,
     with feature-richness in that order.
   - LN protocol details: dataloss_protect and static_remotekey are
     required; varonion and payment_secret are implemented, MPP not yet.
     Channels are not announced ('private'), forwarding is disabled.
     We do not serve gossip queries, only consume them.
   - Submarine swaps: the GUI integrates a service that offers
     atomically exchanging on-chain and lightning bitcoins for a fee.
     Electrum Technologies runs a central server for this, powered by
     the Boltz backend.
   - Watchtowers: Electrum can run a local watchtower (GUI setting),
     or it can connect to a remote watchtower. A watchtower contains
     pre-signed transactions and does not need your private keys. A
     local watchtower will watch your channels whenever an Electrum
     instance is running, without needing access to your wallet file.
     An Electrum daemon can be configured to be used as a remote
     watchtower by setting 'watchtower_address', 'watchtower_user' and
     'watchtower_password'.
 * Partially Signed Bitcoin Transactions (PSBT, BIP-174) are supported
   (#5721). The previous Electrum partial transaction format is no
   longer supported, i.e. this is an incompatible change. Users should
   make sure that all instances of Electrum they use to co-sign or
   offline sign, are updated together.
 * Hardware wallets: several fixes in general; notable changes:
   - The BitBox02 is now supported (#5993)
   - Multisig support for Coldcard (#5440)
   - Compatibility with latest Trezor fw (#6064, #6198, #5692)
 * Dependencies (see README for install instructions):
   - libsecp256k1 is now required (previously optional). python-ecdsa
     remains a dependency but it is now only used for DNSSEC.
   - Added: either one of pycryptodomex or cryptography is now required,
     mainly due to LN (previously pycryptodomex was optional, for fast AES)
   - Removed: jsonrpclib-pelix, the JSON-RPC library used for CLI/daemon
 * Qt GUI: several changes, notably:
   - Separation between output selection and transaction finalization.
   - Coin selection moved to the Coins tab, and it affects all txns,
     e.g. RBF fee-bumping, LN channel opens, submarine swaps.
   - Editable tx preview dialog that allows e.g. changing the locktime,
     toggling RBF, and manual coinjoins.
 * HTTP PayServer: The configuration of a bitcoin-accepting website
   using Electrum has been simplified and requires fewer steps (see
   documentation). The Payserver supports BIP70 and Lightning payments.
 * Android:
   - We now build two APKs, one for ARMv7 and one for ARMv8
   - The kivy GUI now supports importing BIP39 seeds
   - Each wallet on kivy now can have a separate generic password,
     using which the wallet files are encrypted. An optional PIN,
     shared among all wallets, can be added to get prompted for spends.
 * The API of several CLI/RPC commands have changed, and several new
   commands have been introduced (mainly for LN).
 * Distributables:
   - The .tar.gz source dist is now built reproducibly.
     Relatedly, we no longer distribute a .zip sdist.
   - The MacOS binary now conforms to macOS 10.15; it is notarized
     by Apple. This required bumping the min macOS version to 10.13.
     Startup times should now be faster on 10.15. (#6128, #6225)
 * Transactions:
   - we now grind low R for ECDSA signatures to match bitcoind (#5820)
 * Lots and lots of other minor bugfixes and improvements.

[philipma1957laptop]

Flat line bitcoin price.
Price appreciation #SOON...
Inexorable!!!

Just reading an article suggesting we should be at $12,000 right now, that it’s a fair price. Article says we should break upwards soon as the BTC 90-Day active supply has soared to pre-2017 bull run levels.

I’m itching for a fresh HOPIUM injection so hope the above plays out.

We frequently get dumps during long holiday weekends, but hey, we sometimes get pumps too..  

Gosh, I am not even sure if I am mentally capable of making any kind of prediction regarding the odds of pumps versus dumps for this particular weekend... or another possibility is that we remain flat.. cannot really rule out flat, either... how about price movement does not count as either a pump or a dump unless it can at least achieve 2%... which would be about $200-ish... so I am going to say $8800-$9,300 is flat.. and if it breaks above or below that range, then we have either a dump or a pump, respectively...

Let's say that the weekend ends at 00:00 UTC monday.. or is that too screwed up to drag the weekend for so long?  Weekly and daily candles close at 00:00 on Sunday.. but are we talking about candles or actually the ability to transfer money after the banks open back up?

So could we substitute 50/50 for 33.3/33.3/33.3.... does that even add up?... maybe I could give an additional .1 to whichever one that we believe to be most likely... it's easier to dump than pump when the banks are closed, but we have stable coins that are supposed to be 24/7...  

I am refusing to answer the question, and I prefer to just wait and see... and then after it happens (whatever "it" ends up being), to proclaim, "who could have known?"!!!!!    

 

How are we supposed to trust the TA of people who don't even explain their TA with "animal does stereotypically animal thing"?

Exactamente!!!!!

You deserve at least one merit for that profound WObservation....  and perhaps even loads of +WO member tokens...

TLDR: Pics or it didn't happen (or not gonna happen).

We will drop below 8 k maybe 7 k as covid-19 grows in the USA.

[JayJuanGee]

In the mean time, we have bitcoin itself... Does bitcoin itself excite you, or do you have problems with that, too?

Bitcoin has been the second most exciting thing in my life, second only to the career path I chose. I used to run a public node, but it was eating too much into my bandwidth and ruining my gaming experience, even with QoS rules at the firewall. There was a time I was on the cusp of formally filing a legal case against Butterfly Labs, but had to make the difficult personal decision not to proceed, due to being in the sensitive process of a job change. Didn't want to draw any legal attention to myself during that period.

Got in early enough that I had the ability to retire, selling some batches during the runup to $20,000. Have been lurking off and on, and seems there are others here that are in similar situations. Getting in early enough with Bitcoin to live la vida loca. Reading about Elwars escapades with Seasteading has been inspiring. Not sure what I would do if I had his level of holdings. It's a bit difficult for me to see where Bitcoin goes from here. I see numbers of valuations over $100,000 USD per BTC and it twists my brain up a little bit trying to think about the implications.

Wonder what that Josh Zerlan guy is up to. Did he cash out his BTC bags buying his house at the time ? Lost track of things after their bankruptcy.

I am glad that you are largely a HODLer, and you had figured out some kind of reasonable accumulation plan early on, even though a lot of us have continued to attempt to accumulate BTC.  Largely, I consider myself to be a similar class as Elwar, even though he seems to be in a lot more of a YOLO gambler type from what I had seen of his approach, which seems to have had paid off quite well for him, especially in 2016 or so when he had used to buy a decent amount of BTC through his house proceeds, which on the face of it seems to have been a kind of gamble that many folks would not have taken... meaning that if you already had a decent holdings in BTC, then why would you invest even more into BTC... but whatever, each of us take our own chances, and it is much more difficult to argue with something that ended up playing out pretty well for him.. just on a general wealth increasing principles level.

So HODLing and accumulating is one thing, but negging on bitcoin's ongoing developments and some difficulties that come out of ongoing bitcoin developments seems a bit too pessimistic to me.. because this bitcoin thingie-ma-jiggie is an open source and incentives inspired process that frequently is not going to work out as well as some centrally focused company that is able to inject money and resources into development and even to coordinate some of the successes... so anyhow, from your previous post, I was questioning your commitment to bitcoin or if you might be more inspired by getting involved in some shitcoin that might be able to give you short term feelings of a better system.

[JayJuanGee]

Flat line bitcoin price.
Price appreciation #SOON...
Inexorable!!!

Just reading an article suggesting we should be at $12,000 right now, that it’s a fair price. Article says we should break upwards soon as the BTC 90-Day active supply has soared to pre-2017 bull run levels.

I’m itching for a fresh HOPIUM injection so hope the above plays out.

We frequently get dumps during long holiday weekends, but hey, we sometimes get pumps too..  

Gosh, I am not even sure if I am mentally capable of making any kind of prediction regarding the odds of pumps versus dumps for this particular weekend... or another possibility is that we remain flat.. cannot really rule out flat, either... how about price movement does not count as either a pump or a dump unless it can at least achieve 2%... which would be about $200-ish... so I am going to say $8800-$9,300 is flat.. and if it breaks above or below that range, then we have either a dump or a pump, respectively...

Let's say that the weekend ends at 00:00 UTC monday.. or is that too screwed up to drag the weekend for so long?  Weekly and daily candles close at 00:00 on Sunday.. but are we talking about candles or actually the ability to transfer money after the banks open back up?

So could we substitute 50/50 for 33.3/33.3/33.3.... does that even add up?... maybe I could give an additional .1 to whichever one that we believe to be most likely... it's easier to dump than pump when the banks are closed, but we have stable coins that are supposed to be 24/7...  

I am refusing to answer the question, and I prefer to just wait and see... and then after it happens (whatever "it" ends up being), to proclaim, "who could have known?"!!!!!    

 

How are we supposed to trust the TA of people who don't even explain their TA with "animal does stereotypically animal thing"?

Exactamente!!!!!

You deserve at least one merit for that profound WObservation....  and perhaps even loads of +WO member tokens...

TLDR: Pics or it didn't happen (or not gonna happen).

We will drop below 8 k maybe 7 k as covid-19 grows in the USA.

Wow that is a pretty bold assertion. 

Are you proclaiming the timeline for this within the coming month or two or some further out date? 

Are you proclaiming a large amount of BTC price correlation with equities or is there going to be some lesser BTC correlation as time passes and some folks realize that bitcoin supply  is not being inflated to infinity (rather the opposite)?

Will there be a BTC recovery at some point like supra $10k and even supra $14k or even supra ATH, and if so, would such recovery happen before the end of this calendar year or do we have to wait for some of these various "recovery" threshold BTC price points until next year or perhaps later down the line?

[Toxic2040]

the noon wall report

I just dont know.

have a good weekend..stay safe  #dyor

1h


4h

#stronghands

[Xian01]

negging on bitcoin's ongoing developments and some difficulties that come out of ongoing bitcoin developments seems a bit too pessimistic to me

Not pessimistic long term, but I'm not being overly optimistic either. If we see Bitcoin break through $20,000 and maintain support, that would be great. I'm a pretty harsh critic of things, so I don't want to come across as I'm negging on Bitcoin's Layer 2 efforts. I've evaluated one and found it problematic right now, Liquid is entirely unappealing to me, and I'm not really interested in accumulating BTC further via exchanges. Was hoping to see if the fee market was profitable with L2 stuff, and it was not when I closed my Lightning node. Maybe even lost a little bit after fees for establishing channels by locking into Layer 1. I continue to follow Bitcoin on Twitter, but yes, I just hold now. No idea what I should be doing with my BTC, so I just sit on it as if it were a scarce resource.

Want to see us break through and establish firm support above $10,000. Feels like eternal summer with the range it's been trading in for the last couple months.

[goldkingcoiner]

OT: So anyone wanna bet on how long until #MaxwellDidntKillHerself becomes the next meme?

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/ghislaine-maxwell-knows-everything-and-will-be-naming-names-former-epstein-associate-says

She’ll probably tragically be taken into ICU after contracting COVID19 shortly & lose a short battle with the moderate strength flu deadly disease.

"she died while there was nobody else in the room and the cameras were accidently switched off"

[Hueristic]

the morning wall report



The market continues to trickle sideways on declining volume..keep a weather eye peeled for an exit pump or two and some probable panic selling mixed in here or there as we march into Q3/Q4 of 2020.


Ive seen griddle cakes with more interesting features.
1h


Left to right and downwards..seems to be a recurring theme.
4h


Not a whole lotta Rosie out there at the moment...back into hodl mode and see if any buying dips present themselves.
#dyor
D

#stronghands

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bAOwDZoWXRI

[cAPSLOCK]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/07/01/bbc-tells-staff-not-wear-black-lives-matters-badges-on-air/
Archive Link: https://archive.is/NOjau

Exclusive: BBC tells staff not to wear Black Lives Matter badges on air
Number of high-profile organisations are forced to distance themselves from Black Lives Matter as they say organisation has been "hijacked"

The BBC has told its presenters and guests not to wear Black Lives Matter badges as the campaign was accused of “hijacking” George Floyd’s death for political reasons.

Bosses at the corporation have decided not to allow “visual symbols of support” for Black Lives Matter to be worn on screen, senior sources told The Telegraph.

It comes as a number of high-profile organisations were forced to backtrack on their support for the Black Lives Matter movement as its UK arm publicly criticised Israel and called on the British government to “defund the police”.

Good. Fuck BLM.

Soros can choke on my giant black cock.

EDIT: Also, go fuck yourself, JJG. For no reason in particular.

This surprises me SO MUCH.

I have come to just accept that there is some giant cabal working to destroy western society at it's foundations.  And the vast majority of media outlets are in on the whole thing.

Maybe I am just paranoid?

[sirazimuth]

...

Maybe I am just paranoid?

paranoia in the Bitcoin community??! ...say it ain't so!!

(I'm building my bunker and recorded my seed in gold and buried it somewhere in the Sahara Desert, then destroyed and melted down all my internet gadgets....I think I'm good.....)

[cAPSLOCK]

Interesting. My needs are the opposite (need to be able to spend my BTC) but this is a good way for people to onboard to LN with ease. Maybe their debit card could allow for that.

The Lightning Network has been a huge disappointment for me. Largely for technical reasons. Spent about a year back when it launched, running a top node, and it's a complete administrative nightmare handling channel balancing. It's ultimately what made me see it as the current critical flaw in The Lightning Network, and withdraw my funding and resources.

I have not been impressed with the loop in/out options that have been presented as solutions so far.

Liquid does not interest me at all, either. Gives me bad Ethereum vibes in a peculiar way.

In my opinion multi-path payments are going to make channel balancing fairly unnecessary.  Combined with circular payments, and lifted channel size limits, the network is going to be much more robust, and self balancing channels, if even still necessary will become something that can be automated.

I had one of the first 200 nodes up.  I feel your pain.  I eventually closed that node just because it drove me crazy trying to keep it running well...

I got back in though... because I can't help myself.  Plus I love raspberri pis.  Here is the first page of channels on my little raspiblitz node:



As you can see channel balancing is not so difficult anymore. (It still kinda sucks... but I can play around for 10 minutes once a month and get myself looking like this mostly...)

I can even use the RTL web interface to attempt to balance channels...  I did not obscure the Bitfinex channel because I suppose having that open wont give much away about my node. :0  Those things use a LOT of liquidity too...  I have actually made a couple hundred sats (woo hoo!) routing deposits and withdrawals to finex...

[cAPSLOCK]

OT: So anyone wanna bet on how long until #MaxwellDidntKillHerself becomes the next meme?

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/ghislaine-maxwell-knows-everything-and-will-be-naming-names-former-epstein-associate-says

I have another theory.

Think about it.  If TPTB were worried about what she was going to say she would already have been eliminated.  Poof.  Gone.  Locked in some hole, or chopped into 20000 tiny pieces and buried next to Bin Laden and and his dead pig.

So she is going to sing like a bird.

A beautiful song written by the ones that have been paying her all along.

Oh, there will be just enough juicy stuff in it to convince people that some sort of justice has been done.  Somebody... maybe Prince Andrew, is gonna take a pretty hard damn fall.  And there will be just enough other juicy tidbits in it to keep the abominable media twirling around for a while.

But i guarantee you, it will be an appetizer in place of the 4 hour 10 course dinner that really exists.

[Toxic2040]

Maybe I am just paranoid?

your only paranoid if nobody is out to get you



--------
the evening wall report



bitcoin is currently trading at just over $9k as we close out Friday and move into the weekend

the daily candle appears to be a spinning top which can sometimes reflect indecision in the market

volume continues to decline which can indicate a more volatile area approaching   #dyor

5 stones across the river
4h


spinning top and honestly feel it could go either way..down to $8.5k or back up to $9.5k
D


nobody like wok with bent long handle
D

#stronghands

[smartcomet]

Rochard’s law: Everyone underestimates Bitcoin, even when you take into account Rochard’s law.

Hofstadter's law is a self-referential adage, coined by Douglas Hofstadter in his book Gödel, Escher, Bach: An Eternal Golden Braid (1979) to describe the widely experienced difficulty of accurately estimating the time it will take to complete tasks of substantial complexity:[1][2]

Hofstadter's Law: It always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadter's Law.[2]

The law is often cited by programmers in discussions of techniques to improve productivity, such as The Mythical Man-Month or extreme programming

[Toxic2040]

the evening wall report

honey badger prowls
1h



#dyor
4h





bonus questions
D

#stronghands