Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[cAPSLOCK]

Interesting. My needs are the opposite (need to be able to spend my BTC) but this is a good way for people to onboard to LN with ease. Maybe their debit card could allow for that.

The Lightning Network has been a huge disappointment for me. Largely for technical reasons. Spent about a year back when it launched, running a top node, and it's a complete administrative nightmare handling channel balancing. It's ultimately what made me see it as the current critical flaw in The Lightning Network, and withdraw my funding and resources.

I have not been impressed with the loop in/out options that have been presented as solutions so far.

Liquid does not interest me at all, either. Gives me bad Ethereum vibes in a peculiar way.

In my opinion multi-path payments are going to make channel balancing fairly unnecessary.  Combined with circular payments, and lifted channel size limits, the network is going to be much more robust, and self balancing channels, if even still necessary will become something that can be automated.

I had one of the first 200 nodes up.  I feel your pain.  I eventually closed that node just because it drove me crazy trying to keep it running well...

I got back in though... because I can't help myself.  Plus I love raspberri pis.  Here is the first page of channels on my little raspiblitz node:



As you can see channel balancing is not so difficult anymore. (It still kinda sucks... but I can play around for 10 minutes once a month and get myself looking like this mostly...)

I can even use the RTL web interface to attempt to balance channels...  I did not obscure the Bitfinex channel because I suppose having that open wont give much away about my node. :0  Those things use a LOT of liquidity too...  I have actually made a couple hundred sats (woo hoo!) routing deposits and withdrawals to finex...

[cAPSLOCK]

OT: So anyone wanna bet on how long until #MaxwellDidntKillHerself becomes the next meme?

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/ghislaine-maxwell-knows-everything-and-will-be-naming-names-former-epstein-associate-says

I have another theory.

Think about it.  If TPTB were worried about what she was going to say she would already have been eliminated.  Poof.  Gone.  Locked in some hole, or chopped into 20000 tiny pieces and buried next to Bin Laden and and his dead pig.

So she is going to sing like a bird.

A beautiful song written by the ones that have been paying her all along.

Oh, there will be just enough juicy stuff in it to convince people that some sort of justice has been done.  Somebody... maybe Prince Andrew, is gonna take a pretty hard damn fall.  And there will be just enough other juicy tidbits in it to keep the abominable media twirling around for a while.

But i guarantee you, it will be an appetizer in place of the 4 hour 10 course dinner that really exists.

[Toxic2040]

Maybe I am just paranoid?

your only paranoid if nobody is out to get you



--------
the evening wall report



bitcoin is currently trading at just over $9k as we close out Friday and move into the weekend

the daily candle appears to be a spinning top which can sometimes reflect indecision in the market

volume continues to decline which can indicate a more volatile area approaching   #dyor

5 stones across the river
4h


spinning top and honestly feel it could go either way..down to $8.5k or back up to $9.5k
D


nobody like wok with bent long handle
D

#stronghands

[smartcomet]

Rochard’s law: Everyone underestimates Bitcoin, even when you take into account Rochard’s law.

Hofstadter's law is a self-referential adage, coined by Douglas Hofstadter in his book Gödel, Escher, Bach: An Eternal Golden Braid (1979) to describe the widely experienced difficulty of accurately estimating the time it will take to complete tasks of substantial complexity:[1][2]

Hofstadter's Law: It always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadter's Law.[2]

The law is often cited by programmers in discussions of techniques to improve productivity, such as The Mythical Man-Month or extreme programming

[Toxic2040]

the evening wall report

honey badger prowls
1h



#dyor
4h





bonus questions
D

#stronghands

[VB1001]

https://twitter.com/BitcoinMemeHub/status/1279230054128431104

[Toxic2040]

[DaRude]

Nice BTC900 ask wall on coinbase @9092 or is this a wrong place for such things?

[LUCKMCFLY]

Hi WO!!

Last Time Bitcoin Volatility Was This Low, BTC Surged By 25% In 24 Hours

“Maturation, greater depth and plenty more exposure via futures should continue to suppress the first-born crypto’s volatility, clearly keeping it tilted toward price appreciation. We view the benchmark crypto as a resting bull that likely needs something to change significantly in its 10-or-so-year history to not just resume doing what it was doing: appreciating.”

Source: https://cryptosonline.com/2020/07/03/last-time-bitcoin-volatility-was-this-low-btc-surged-by-25-in-24-hours/

[Toxic2040]

Daily with fib extension

[somac.]

Nice BTC900 ask wall on coinbase @9092 or is this a wrong place for such things?

Somebody ban this jerkoff for off topic posts. Seriously what is this place coming too.

[AlcoHoDL]

Saturday morning. Boring. So I did a calculation:

Background: I collect monthly rent for a small apartment (in the same building where I live), and send the accumulated rent every 6 months to the apartment owner, who lives in another country. We're friends, so I don't take any profits out of this. This has been going on since the beginning of 2015 and continues to this day.

Monthly rent: $150
Amount sent every 6 months: $900
Net profit for my efforts: $0

So I thought: what if I had invested all those rent amounts in Bitcoin? Suppose I bought BTC at the beginning of each month (when I received the monthly rent), and then, at the end of each 6-month period, I sold the accumulated BTC, sent the $900 to my friend, and kept any profits (or cover any losses incurred). How would that work out?

Prices: Bitstamp Historical Data
Period: 2015-01-01 ~ 2020-07-01

Method: I applied the above scenario, but took the worst case, i.e., buying BTC at the highest daily price every 1st of each month (thus obtaining the least amount of BTC), and selling accumulated BTC at the lowest daily price of the last day of each 6-month period (thus obtaining the least amount of fiat). This is the absolute worst-case scenario, so the net profits (or losses) calculated will be the lowest (or highest) possible, respectively.

Here's what I got:



Overall net profit (from 2015 to 2020): +$4,302.52*

It's not much, but it's still better than nothing. This amount is the lowest I could have earned, had I followed my hypothetical scenario above. Instead, what I did was just keeping the rents in my closet (or in the bank). What did I get? Zero, zip, zilch, nada!

I think this is an interesting result, that shows the sheer amount of profits that can be made by smartly (and effortlessly) investing small amounts of fiat you may have lying around (or, perhaps, managing for a friend, like in my case). Note that, applying my scenario above does not involve any data analysis or other effort, this is just blindly applying the above scheduled buy/sell actions without even looking at the price. Of course, this idea could end up in losses, but history has shown that with Bitcoin, gains are virtually guaranteed if you give it enough time to average out the volatility (i.e., the long-term price direction is virtually guaranteed to be upward), so it's almost a win-win situation.

Maybe not HoDL material, but still an interesting experiment/result IMHO.

(*) Exchange & transaction fees not taken into account.

[JSRAW]

Good for brainstorming but to me it seems "how to lose friend 101" irl.

[AlcoHoDL]

Good for brainstorming but to me it seems "how to lose friend 101" irl.

The friend will always get his money, he doesn't need to know... And you can always stop if you feel uncomfortable.

[JayJuanGee]

negging on bitcoin's ongoing developments and some difficulties that come out of ongoing bitcoin developments seems a bit too pessimistic to me

Not pessimistic long term, but I'm not being overly optimistic either. If we see Bitcoin break through $20,000 and maintain support, that would be great. I'm a pretty harsh critic of things, so I don't want to come across as I'm negging on Bitcoin's Layer 2 efforts. I've evaluated one and found it problematic right now, Liquid is entirely unappealing to me, and I'm not really interested in accumulating BTC further via exchanges. Was hoping to see if the fee market was profitable with L2 stuff, and it was not when I closed my Lightning node. Maybe even lost a little bit after fees for establishing channels by locking into Layer 1. I continue to follow Bitcoin on Twitter, but yes, I just hold now. No idea what I should be doing with my BTC, so I just sit on it as if it were a scarce resource.

Want to see us break through and establish firm support above $10,000. Feels like eternal summer with the range it's been trading in for the last couple months.

Fair enough.

If you accumulated a level of BTC that his more or less comfortable to you, then you could just hold them off exchanges, and maybe even cash in a bit here and there from time to time, in the even that you feel that you maybe have a high allocation.

I would presume that any allocation that is 1% to 10% of your investment portfolio could reasonably feel as if it were a reasonable risk level (and allocation).  Of course, individuals who are more risk averse might choose lower allocation levels.

And, yeah, even though there has been some sense that liquidation avenues have been increasing, there still are some senses that AML and KYC requirements are increasing, too, which may or may not be any BIG deal if you cash out some BTC and then just pay the appropriate taxes (if any) that might apply to your situation.

In this thread there are quite a few members who continue to be pretty excited about BTC  and also attempt to follow ongoing BTC happenings, but it is also understandable that there might be some members, like you, who come off as a bit more bleh about the whole situation, even though you seem to be continuing to largely HODL what you have already accumulated.

[JayJuanGee]

Good for brainstorming but to me it seems "how to lose friend 101" irl.

The friend will always get his money, he doesn't need to know... And you can always stop if you feel uncomfortable.

Largely, you are suggesting that you are playing the 6-month float, assessing that it would be profitable so long as you did not end up screwing up and losing the money through some kind of exchange hack or something like that.  Overall, it does not seem like a bad idea, even though technically there could be a bit of a breach of your fiduciary responsibility, even though you are implying that you would pay back the money, even if you ended up losing it due to falling BTC prices or due to some kind of other third party risk that you put the money into, but even if you account for the costs and the risks, you would still end up making money.. so sure, you have to add the exchange fees and other various cost, and maybe including putting on some kind of cost for the third party risk to arrive at a more reasonable number concerning the profitability which would be a bit smaller than the number that you calculated the first time... but probably NOT low enough to cause you to change your mind about doing it.

[heslo]

Good for brainstorming but to me it seems "how to lose friend 101" irl.

The friend will always get his money, he doesn't need to know... And you can always stop if you feel uncomfortable.

Yeah... don't play with someone elses money dude. That being said if you've got the money to cover it and give to him if it goes tits up; it's a bit different. But then just do it with your own $$$

[SuperTA]

We’ll be back to $8,000 by the end of April!

Fucking quote me bruh!

I was bored and i'm currently reading some older posts from the time when bitcoin crashed to 4k. This comment was spot on! Congratulations! Your prediction came true. You said that bitcoin will be back to 8,000 usd by the end of April! You were so right. Bitcoin reeached 8,000 usd on the 29th of April. How did you know that?   There you go, i quoted you LFC_Bitcoin!

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Good for brainstorming but to me it seems "how to lose friend 101" irl.

The friend will always get his money, he doesn't need to know... And you can always stop if you feel uncomfortable.

As long as you’d still give him the rent money, even if the bitcoin price goes down then fuck it, he doesn’t need to know. You could definitely make a bit of spare cash holding the rent money in bitcoin before sending him $150 x 6 after 6 months.

Do it!

[LFC_Bitcoin]

We’ll be back to $8,000 by the end of April!

Fucking quote me bruh!

I was bored and i'm currently reading some older posts from the time when bitcoin crashed to 4k. This comment was spot on! Congratulations! Your prediction came true. You said that bitcoin will be back to 8,000 usd by the end of April! You were so right. Bitcoin reeached 8,000 usd on the 29th of April. How did you know that?   There you go, i quoted you LFC_Bitcoin!

Because I’m a psychotic permabull
No seriously, I just thought that the world was panicking & weak hands were selling because of covid which was always going to happen. Smart money buys the dip & then we recover. It was just a common sense prediction I guess.

I bought 4BTC under $5,000 during that time, the opposite of going full mindrust.