Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

looks like we still got a few bears that think they know better,
bears prepare to wake up dazed and confused as you look upon other flag pole formation and price at 741.POWNED!!!!

 

This looks like the same scenario as when I traded in December. It's bouncing between 650 and 700.  Well, I'll wait until 680 to 700 and sell. Then buy back at 650.    End up going to sleep. Sold at 700. Wake up at 750. 

I believe that this is one of the problems with the Whale/Bots controlling the price situation.  Certainly, they cannot completely control the long-term upward momentum, but they can control the stability periods and right when a real person investor believes that s/he senses a pattern, then the whale bot takes the matter in another direction or takes the matter out of what had seemed to be a predictable range of swings.  It is real bullshit, but maybe NOT a lot that a real small fish investor can do about the situation if s/he does NOT have the resources.  Just have to time the matter to the best extent, and also it seems pretty certain that investing in the long-term should be a good bet with BTC.

[aminorex]

It still shocks me how inept Catholics are at balancing a checkbook. There is a cultural tolerance for corruption rarely found in Protestant countries. I assume Orthodox countries are even worse.

Russia seems like the more important case.  Looks to me from the outside like a might is right system with aspirations to platonic mathematical purity.  The Catholic/Protestant thing: I think it's because there's an elaborate system for penance in Catholicism.  You just do what you do, and then get absolution later.  Protestants claim not to seek salvation by works, but they're always on the job, because their only priest is rather far away, and rather long in returning.  I think they just hide the corruption better.  Human nature doesn't change much, it just expresses itself in the context of its acculturation.

[aminorex]

I have some problems with AGW:

1) The enthalpy of absorption of atmospheric CO2 vs atmospheric H2O vapor is a rounding error.
2) Correlated temperature changes on different planets are a pretty strong indication of a solar driver.
3) I've done climate modeling (albeit 20 years ago) and I would need a pretty strong technical argument for the validity of any model, and nothing remotely adequate has been provided within my arm's reach.  If I needed to form a strong conclusion, I would stretch further in search of such a thing.

Political correctness is pervasive in academic science, as is data fraud.  I prefer to be platonically correct, and intellectually honest.  But I don't really have a strong opinion about AGW, because I don't think the case has been made properly.  I do have a strong opinion about AGW palliative measures which have a strong potential to kill millions of people through enforced poverty, or catastrophic social- or geo-engineering programs.

That said, there are clearly motivated people opposed to the AGW models on ideological grounds, or on grounds of self-interest, and damn the public good and the commons.  Very evil, that, and I hope they are frustrated in doing evil.  I question whether AGW proponents are equipped to do the frustrating, on several grounds, but leave that for another time.

[JorgeStolfi]

It works for Earth troposphere pressures (200-1000 mbar) which overlaps the cloud layer. It is slightly off within the cloud layer. Anyway you seem to be proposing an alternative reason there is no affect of CO2 on venus's temperature, and thus no evidence for runaway greenhouse effect.

Well, I always understood that the greenhouse effect was this: shorter wavelength radiation crosses the atmosphere in spite of any CO2, gets absorbed by the ground, is re-radiated as infrared, and this is prevented from escaping by the CO2.

If so then Venus may not have a greenhouse effect because the shorter-wavelength radiation gets reflected by the clouds without being converted to infrared, and therefore does not get trapped by the CO2.  But I am just, er, academizing about it. 

[bassclef]

But loving the new, aggressive JorgeStolfi.

Not agressive, just informative. Like a warning at the zoo, "do not  feed the bear, especially with your hand."

Now I feel like I'm getting to know the real Jorge. 

[seleme]

The BTC Foundation’s Power Struggle

Loyal Idiots,

For those of you who have been regular readers, you know that it is incredibly rare for me to miss a Daily Bit. These past 72 hours have been among the most stressful of my life, and I have been betrayed by some of those within the industry whom I had trusted.

Either I was misled by my sources or my sources were misled by Peter Vessenes and Jon Matonis over the weekend. I reported on Sunday that they were stepping aside gracefully following their absent leadership during the Mt. Gox scandal. However, yesterday and today I received conflicting reports. One person close to Vessenes told me that not only does the man have no intention to step down as the Bitcoin Foundation’s Chairman, but he intends to run for reelection when his term is up later this year. I don’t know whether I can believe that is true, because it truly would be stunning.

Then again Rob Ford didn’t resign his mayorship either, and he made it onto Jimmy Kimmel.

(Vessenes did not respond to an email yesterday, and a contact number for the foundation redirected to a full voicemailbox.)

But that’s not what bothers me. What truly eats at my core stems from what has happened behind the scenes these past few days. Let me say simply that the failure in leadership across many other firms not named Mt. Gox is stunning. I will say no more at this point for legal reasons, but I can’t remember the last time that I was so professionally disappointed and discouraged by the willful neglect of those who many others would call leaders.

I now know better.

I must be meticulous with every detail that I report from both the Mt. Gox saga and now the incomprehensible mismanagement of the Bitcoin Foundation, a group created ostensibly to be the mouthpiece for an entire revolutionary industry.

Yes, I believe there is troubling circumstantial evidence connecting the two. But this gets into serious territory, and I won’t print it until I am 100% confident in what I am writing. I have been warned by others within the industry that I am now playing a “dangerous game” confronting “powerful” people who are “ruthless and cunning”.

Don’t expect me to blink.

Just please be patient. I won’t back down.

“TwoBit — AKA Ryan Galt — AKA Ryan Selkis seems a bit hot headed but his heart is in the right place. I’ve emailed him a little bit and he’s opinionated but he does go (hard) after facts. With his style he does intermingle opinions and facts and this can be off putting to some people (not my taste). That said, if you simply rewrote everything in his posts in paired paragraphs, one for the facts and one for his opinions, it might ruffle a few less feathers. While he’s (AFAIK) new to the community, he’s made some insightful contributions already.

Track record is everything in the fast moving world of Bitcoin; only time will tell the whole story. But I’m inclined to think his story will work out on the positive side. We shall see.”

-Fellow Lifetime Member Brian Goss on a Bitcoin Foundation Forum thread.


Cheers,
TBI

[seleme]

Damn 

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-03-04/bitcoin-claims-its-first-real-victim

[bb113]

It works for Earth troposphere pressures (200-1000 mbar) which overlaps the cloud layer. It is slightly off within the cloud layer. Anyway you seem to be proposing an alternative reason there is no affect of CO2 on venus's temperature, and thus no evidence for runaway greenhouse effect.

Well, I always understood that the greenhouse effect was this: shorter wavelength radiation crosses the atmosphere in spite of any CO2, gets absorbed by the ground, is re-radiated as infrared, and this is prevented from escaping by the CO2.

If so then Venus may not have a greenhouse effect because the shorter-wavelength radiation gets reflected by the clouds without being converted to infrared, and therefore does not get trapped by the CO2.  But I am just, er, academizing about it. 

Thanks, first sensible response I have seen to this data. I will think about it and make a new thread possibly. It still does not explain why two planets with vastly different albedo's and atmosphere concentrations would have the same temperature (corrected for pressure and incident energy) if other factors were important, though.

[JorgeStolfi]

Now I feel like I'm getting to know the real Jorge. 

Don't trust your feelings, they can be easily manipulated.

[bassclef]

Now I feel like I'm getting to know the real Jorge. 

Don't trust your feelings, they can be easily manipulated.

I'm a musician-- I have to or else the performance isn't any good. That said , I know when someone is faking it.

[JorgeStolfi]

That said , I know when someone is faking it.

Good!

[Adrian-x]

The BTC Foundation’s Power Struggle

Loyal Idiots,

For those of you who have been regular readers, you know that it is incredibly rare for me to miss a Daily Bit. These past 72 hours have been among the most stressful of my life, and I have been betrayed by some of those within the industry whom I had trusted.

Either I was misled by my sources or my sources were misled by Peter Vessenes and Jon Matonis over the weekend. I reported on Sunday that they were stepping aside gracefully following their absent leadership during the Mt. Gox scandal. However, yesterday and today I received conflicting reports. One person close to Vessenes told me that not only does the man have no intention to step down as the Bitcoin Foundation’s Chairman, but he intends to run for reelection when his term is up later this year. I don’t know whether I can believe that is true, because it truly would be stunning.

Then again Rob Ford didn’t resign his mayorship either, and he made it onto Jimmy Kimmel.

(Vessenes did not respond to an email yesterday, and a contact number for the foundation redirected to a full voicemailbox.)

But that’s not what bothers me. What truly eats at my core stems from what has happened behind the scenes these past few days. Let me say simply that the failure in leadership across many other firms not named Mt. Gox is stunning. I will say no more at this point for legal reasons, but I can’t remember the last time that I was so professionally disappointed and discouraged by the willful neglect of those who many others would call leaders.

I now know better.

I must be meticulous with every detail that I report from both the Mt. Gox saga and now the incomprehensible mismanagement of the Bitcoin Foundation, a group created ostensibly to be the mouthpiece for an entire revolutionary industry.

Yes, I believe there is troubling circumstantial evidence connecting the two. But this gets into serious territory, and I won’t print it until I am 100% confident in what I am writing. I have been warned by others within the industry that I am now playing a “dangerous game” confronting “powerful” people who are “ruthless and cunning”.

Don’t expect me to blink.

Just please be patient. I won’t back down.

“TwoBit — AKA Ryan Galt — AKA Ryan Selkis seems a bit hot headed but his heart is in the right place. I’ve emailed him a little bit and he’s opinionated but he does go (hard) after facts. With his style he does intermingle opinions and facts and this can be off putting to some people (not my taste). That said, if you simply rewrote everything in his posts in paired paragraphs, one for the facts and one for his opinions, it might ruffle a few less feathers. While he’s (AFAIK) new to the community, he’s made some insightful contributions already.

Track record is everything in the fast moving world of Bitcoin; only time will tell the whole story. But I’m inclined to think his story will work out on the positive side. We shall see.”

-Fellow Lifetime Member Brian Goss on a Bitcoin Foundation Forum thread.


Cheers,
TBI

I speculate Peter Vessenes is the problem, he leaked private conversations on Gox's situation to the "Bit Idiot", so he could accelerate there demise and keep his $5 million, Jon Matonis still looks competent. Ultimately Vessenes is being played by TPTB, his dishonest nature and greed are his downfall. 

[Richy_T]

Your colleges and specialized education is top notch but stuff below that is way below par in most of other parts of the World.

I was born and educated in the UK FWIW. I've lived in the US for 14 years but that could be a whole other thread.

[jojo69]

I hope Brian is sleeping with his wakizashi.

[Vigil]

Two questions... why is the foundation the only group issuing bitcoin-qt updates? In most open-source projects there are people all over the place submitting their own updates.

Also, does anyone think there is truth to the idea that the government is who confiscated the Gox coins, placing the team under a gag order, and thus the reason for the "malleability bug" excuse?

[Richy_T]

However, parallels with global warming are not accurate, it's a pity so many sceptics and deniers inhabit this forum but I imagine the US media has a lot to do with this (as well as your education system).

Boom, straight to the ad-hom

I'm on a ferry on the Tasman strait and can't be bothered producing all the academic references.  But even the 'skeptic' scientists who were employed by the corporate PR companies have jumped ship -- the evidence is now overwhelming.  Hopefully, a few more super-storms will hit the east coast, wake you from your insular torpor.

Yeah, they should really make an effort what with hurricanes being so low and all recently.

[Richy_T]

Gotta hand it to Tera with his/her 666

[seleme]

Gotta hand it to Tera with his/her 666

Except it works as support not resistance.

[aminorex]

* I am not a libertarian.

The merits of the blockchain algorithm as a technology, and of Bitcoin as an investment don't seem strongly related to this point.  I can imagine a libertarian argument in favor of private as opposed to governmental issue of currency, but I don't think it plays a strong role in the ideation of the community here.

There are certainly strong political motivations for Bitcoin advocacy, but they don't seem to me to be tightly coupled with libertarian ideas.  The advocacy of non-politically valued currency can certainly derive from limited government ideas, but those are common to pretty much the whole of the Western Liberal tradition since at least Locke.  Arguably they derive from Constantine the Great.

I suspect that most libertarians would find Bitcoin appealling on some level, but most Bitcoin advocates would not self-identify as libertarian.

* ... lottery ticket ...
* ... lottery ticket ...
* ... lottery ticket ...
* ... lottery ticket ...

You seem to be equating bitcoin with a lottery ticket.  Of course it is not a lottery ticket by any stretch of the imagination.  The value of bitcoin is not determined by chance.  Thus it is difficult to see how this is relevant to your views on bitcoin, unless you have actually confused bitcoin with lottery tickets.  It is not even remotely analogous.  Does it not give you pause when you use an erroneous equation as the dominant plank in your platform?

[KFR]

Two questions... why is the foundation the only group issuing bitcoin-qt updates? In most open-source projects there are people all over the place submitting their own updates.

Also, does anyone think there is truth to the idea that the government is who confiscated the Gox coins, placing the team under a gag order, and thus the reason for the "malleability bug" excuse?

1) Research bitcoin development
 
  Here are a couple of good places to start:
   https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=4571.0
   https://github.com/bitcoin/bitcoin/pulse


2) Not much point speculating further until we have more facts.  Malleability is not a bug; it's a documented characteristic of the way Bitcoin works.  IMHO it is much more likely that they misunderstood malleability and introduced a bug in their implementation than they invented the whole thing to cover other sins.  I still find the scale of the loss incredibly hard to believe however.  That took their bug and combined it with either wilful impropriety or staggering incompetence.