Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[BitcoinBunny]

Yearly federal tax revenue USA $3.8 Trillion. Spending bill a ridiculous $3.5 Trillion.

Why not just have a year without any taxes and people will be better off without bureaucracy involved (more jobs / more take home money etc)?

Or is it really about controlling what people do?  

Regardless, with the ridiculous inflation figures at the moment, people being rewarded in BTC instead of crap fiat for work / a job could be closer than I initially was thinking.

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[Dabs]

Anyone know anything about prenuptial agreements as they would relate to cryptocurrency?

Hypothetically..

Uh ... don't tell her you have any coins especially if she doesn't understand what coins are?

Hypothetically..

Not her keys, not her coins.

[Dabs]

The make or break moment is nearly upon us. If the next 40 days doesn’t produce the beginnings of a major bubble, it will start to discourage those of us who have been watching the stock to flow ratio for a couple cycles now.

Luckily it seems there’s news of an approved ETH incoming that seems to be legitimate…

that's a funny typo..what's on your mind? lol

that said, i am not worried...yet, but it seems that NOBODY predicted this cycle..as it should be...contrary to Willy Woo's assertion, bitcoin is not really "mechanical".

I think I’ve been typing about NFTs too much. My phone is getting a little auto-correct happy on the Ethereum references. Between that and always changing my ‘wouldn’t’ to ‘would’ I think my phone is out to sabotage me. Indeed I meant ETF, as it seems like Coinbase tipped off the market with their now deleted tweet.

One of the first things I do when I set up a phone or tablet is turn off auto-correct and disabled dictionaries and stuff like that. For short messages I use all sorts of acronyms and intentional misspellings to get my message across faster. When it's not very time sensitive, I just manually type out the whole word or sentence so the meaning is clearly understood (and even then something gets lost in translation.)

[Dabs]

My gut is telling me S2F falls apart soon. In shambles and an afterthought by March 2022.

Hope I'm wrong, but I think we should expect a slower rise than some are anticipating.

I don't think S2F adequately compensates for the reduced effect of halvings. We're nearly at 90% mined. Supply is basically already fixed. Demand is what will drive appreciation.

Isn't S2F all about halvings? It's called Stock to Flow based on what is being mined or what supply is coming in, compared to what is already there.

To put this into better perspective:

90% mined by Dec 16, 2021
95% mined by Apr 3, 2026
99% mined by Mar 20, 2035
99.9% mined by Mar 19, 2048

However, I tend to believe that once we reach 20 million coins total mined is a better point, as that's above 95% 96%, around 2024-ish, or after that maybe 2028. Then it will take a year or two for things to either settle or go moon, so 2030 we start seeing price approach $1m or exceed it and go to $10m, $20m, $50m, even $100m. Over time.

[Dabs]

How bout you two open a side-bet on the 2021/22 top price?
below or above $200k, BTC only, with escrow. (Mr. D.?)

Sure thing, just let me know. Got a segwit only cold storage wallet already set up. For on-chain, not Lightning yet. But seems they're not interested anyway.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[OutOfMemory]

How bout you two open a side-bet on the 2021/22 top price?
below or above $200k, BTC only, with escrow. (Mr. D.?)

Sure thing, just let me know. Got a segwit only cold storage wallet already set up. For on-chain, not Lightning yet. But seems they're not interested anyway.

Yeah, it was a kind of semi-joke in the form of "guys, put your money where your mouth is" 
Thanks for jumping in so quickly, Dabs 

[aysg76]

So now bitcoin prices are recovering slowly but this turtle race is becoming annoying now at one point and wants a rabbit jump straight above $50k.Till then going to enjoy with my hommies and WO brothers.

By the way have you seen new mining farm under construction in Texas as El Salvador have already started a step forward with volcano power to mine bitcoin.



And here is another video shared by Nayib Bukele for bitcoin mining https://www.instagram.com/reel/CUZb6QrB6xb/?utm_medium=copy_link which seems amazing.

The hashrates are also becoming normal with all the postive news around the globe with all the nonsense of China FUD as they don't matter any longer due to spread of miners across the globe leaving China.

[Dabs]

Ukraine has 15 nuclear plants that are powering half the city or something and the Minister of Energy is considering setting up mining hubs to capture some excess or unused energy.

[Poker Player]

Part of me is fucking concerned if I’m honest.

My gut is telling me S2F falls apart soon. In shambles and an afterthought by March 2022.

Hope I'm wrong, but I think we should expect a slower rise than some are anticipating.

seconded.

I think it is too early to say. If we get to the end of December and the price has not gone above $65k we will have to rethink the predictive models we have seen, which are based on similar price rises in cycles after halving. But the last day of September? It's early.

Let's see what happens in the coming months without getting pessimistic and if we get to December and we see that we need to rethink the models, we will rethink them.

[philipma1957]

 the diff is upwards

https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   702874  (2 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   101.1135%  (1307 / 1292.61 expected, 14.39 ahead)


Previous Difficulty:   18415156832118.24                            
Current Difficulty:   18997641161758.95                            
Next Difficulty:   between 19211323407313 and 19241870256229
Next Difficulty Change:   between +1.1248% and +1.2856%
Previous Retarget:   September 21, 2021 at 10:12 AM  (+3.1631%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Tuesday at 6:30 AM  (in 4d 20h 51m 55s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Tuesday at 6:58 AM  (in 4d 21h 19m 23s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 20h 18m 0s and 13d 20h 45m 27s

Still well under the 25.01 t max in the spring,but getting back on track.

This is bullish as other places have picked up on what China has shut down

[fr4nkthetank]

gasnow shutting down, 1inch legal warnings on website, more services going to shut down.  seems the china crackdown has more muscle this time.  good riddance china

anyways yall see the compound fuckery ?  holy shit, i think you supply usdc or borrow wbtc and get a shitton of comp for no reason.  noticed all the apy % for distribution is set to 0 on the website and the "claim" button is pretty much non-existent now.  System broken ? no problem, just change the website so people cant click on it rofl  
cant make this shit up

[Richy_T]

                           

nice work

Hmmmm...

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[sirazimuth]

OK!  That's really cool!

[DaRude]

Anybody like to share their thoughts on the current market, price action?

It looks weak AF to me. I mean, I think everything is OK & we should rally in Q4 but we really need to start moving up soon. Part of me is fucking concerned if I’m honest.

The state company Chivo negotiated with the largest gas station companies in our country, so that starting tomorrow, their stations will sell each gallon of fuel $ 0.20 cheaper, with @chivowallet

https://twitter.com/nayibbukele/status/1443410462129983490

I got many questions on this (like why isn't the discount for payments in BTC only, and why Chivo app and not any lightning wallet etc...) but conceptually this is what it's all about. Sure you can continue paying with your credit card for "free" or get savings for transaction fees passed back to you if you pay with lightning. Market cap of credit card companies is (was?) $1T oops...

Let me provide discount on every global transaction and I care not who writes the laws (or BTC's current price action)

[Dabs]

OK!  That's really cool!

Nice. So what can we do with this? Can it be used to make an actual physical coin thing? I don't have any 3D printers or CNC machines though.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[fillippone]

My gut is telling me S2F falls apart soon. In shambles and an afterthought by March 2022.

Hope I'm wrong, but I think we should expect a slower rise than some are anticipating.

I don't think S2F adequately compensates for the reduced effect of halvings. We're nearly at 90% mined. Supply is basically already fixed. Demand is what will drive appreciation.

Isn't S2F all about halvings? It's called Stock to Flow based on what is being mined or what supply is coming in, compared to what is already there.

Stock to flow is only about halving.
I dedicated a lot of time to study that model:
Stock-to-Flow Model: Modeling Bitcoin's Value with Scarcity

Every person with some intelligence should now that the model could be invalid at some point…

Indeed, I will tell you more: the Stock to flow is going to break 100% in the future.
In a few halving at best, the stock to flow is going to break, either because Bitcoin is going to break, or because the dollar is going to break.
Your choice.
 

[bitcoinPsycho]

An extremely sad day for historic arcade rom preservation

Fuck Nintendo bullies

pleasuredome.org.uk    shut down forever  


Edit: just in case   https://r-roms.github.io/