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Yeah... King Daddy is going to do what King Daddy is going to do, no matter what we say or want. In that sense, I guess one could say that the next x hours are critical
for him/her, where x can be anything...
You are not saying anything that is wrong - but you seem to be being a bit too lackadaisical (to state it in the negative) or zen (to state it in the positive) at the moment. In other words, I am more inclined to conclude that our current momentum means something rather than just conceding that anything can happen.. which sure, it is true that anything could happen, but we also have ongoing uppity momentum at the moment.. even if it remains possible to stop or to reverse at any time.
After several years of HoDLing, going through ups and downs and long bear seasons, I find myself becoming more "mellow" in how I manage my buys and sells and general activity/attitude towards King Daddy. I let him do his thing, while I sit back, relax, zoom out, or don't look at all, and act according to my needs.
Nothing wrong with that.. but many of us (including uie poo-ie) have historically enjoyed assigning some probabilities to price direction and to call others goofballs if they don't agree with us... - and even more so calling them names if they are overly assigning (or hoping/cheering for) downity..... AmiNOTkoreck?
As far as buying, I'm already kind of OK in terms of quantity of BTC (can this even be said, I wonder...).
I think that it can be said, and I think that some people can also say that they have too much BTC.. not going to mention any names.
Whether any of us might be overly stocked up or adequately stocked up.. it would not feel right to overly sell when the BTC price is going up or maybe not add more BTC if it is a fairly clear quickie dip (and the personal stash status is not clearly overly locked and stocked).. so sure there could be some discretionary.. but not mandatory choices to take advantage of what might be considered as possible "obvious" short-term BTC price moves.
As far as selling, I don't have any immediate needs that justify selling even small amounts of BTC (still keeping even LFC_Bitcoin's prize corn!).
I have been quasi-covertly working on moving around balances for the past 5 months... but my amounts of BTC versus fiat has not really changed too much.... and so maybe even if there is nothing really urgent, it still tends to be nice to see the BTC price go up... even while I would like to reassert that I am attempting to be descriptive rather than prescriptive...
so if the BTC price is bound to go up or inclined to go up, sometimes there can be some advantages to take advantage of some of those moves.. whether we see the BTC price going to $80k and correcting from there, going to $150k and correcting from there, $250k and correcting from there.. or some other numbers.. and surely, even if we might not have confidence in knowing which numbers are more likely to play out.. there can be some marginal advantage to work what you do know to your benefits.. whether that is just skimming off a few percentage on the way, or even skimming off 50% or so.. and most guys probably realize that I don't really play around with more than even 10% of my holdings, even if I anticipate large UPpity followed by possible (or even likely) decently-large correction(s).
Maybe I will change how I play this cycle? I am not sure, and I really doubt it, and I anticipate that if I end up asserting that I am playing it BIG.. and making some BIG-ASS BTC sales, I am still likely ONLY going to be referring to less than 10% of my total portfolio (while retaining discretion to do whatever I want.. even if it might be on a whim.. a kind of reverse (or is it upside-down?) mindrust, if you will)...
Basically, currently Bitcoin only serves as a psychological reassurance that I can do some wild and crazy stuff if I want to, and I can survive (and enjoy) the rest of my life without wage-slaving myself -- the latter part is the most important.
Now, I am starting to feel sorry for you, if you are not there, yet...
hahahahaha
Just joking.. because, I understand if you have a timeline for wanting to do x, y or z, bitcoin has been allowing some abilities to get ahead of what any of us had anticipated to either be our schedule or the amount that we were going to be UP (or to have a greater number of options).
So, there are very positive things that can happen in one's life by merely HoDLing BTC, instead of actually spending it.
It's kind of like a country which holds nuclear weapons in order to keep the peace. There was someone's avatar motto here in WO that said this. "If you want peace, be prepared for war", or something like that. You don't need to actually detonate the nuclear bombs (spend your BTC), the mere fact that you possess them is enough to achieve what you want.
You won't find me arguing with those kinds of ideas... even if several of us are going to play the matter differently.
Let's say for example, a guy considers $2 million as his fuck you status, and he has $1 million in various traditional assets, and then when BTC was around $10k in value, he had $500k in bitcoin, so when bitcoin ended up going up to $50k, he ends up having $5million in bitcoin and he still has $1million in his various traditional assets.. he has more options, because he is now approaching 3x his fuck you status. He can spend some or all of his bitcoin if he wants, or he can play them in various different ways that are of his choosing, and he has more options also because in the past year, BTC's 208-week moving average has moved up from $7k to $16k, so he has psychological security to couple with his financial security that goes beyond merely assessing his situation in terms of spot price. He also knows that the 208-week moving average is continuing to go up.. because it is a lagging indicator and he sees that there is more than a 3x spot price cushion, and he also has pretty decent senses that for the moment BTC's spot price has good chances of going up, too.. even though it does not have to go up in order for him to have a decent amount of security and options.
I'm not worried. I believe that Bitcoin will greatly appreciate in value in the long term -- it's a when, not an if, as The Dude commented earlier.
Yes.. several of us are looney minorities in that regard, and we can say to our normie nocoiner and precoiner "friends"... "oh golly, gee.. what a surprise that bitcoin has gone up from $29k to $129k (or perhaps $529k?) in the past 3-12months (or whatever the timeline ends up being).. who would have thunk? It's not like I have not been describing the likely ongoing repetition of these kinds of scenarios for like the last 4 years or more..,. blah blah blah"
Whatever happens will happen when it happens. I'm not in a hurry.
Sure, fair enough.. but there still is a kind of pattern that is playing out in front of our eyes.. and we could get new face melting ATHs in the coming weeks to 12 months (outside scenario).. and sure it would be curious if there is some kind of a breaking of the cycle.. so even if some of us are prepared for a variety of possible scenarios, many of us are still curious to see a variety of ways that the matters could play out.. it remains very interesting.. and hard to not watch.. like a guy in a suite on the street getting beat up by a homeless man... can't stop watching (maybe a bad example.. but still).
No ranches to build or lakes to buy. I'm satisfied with what I've got, and some things cannot be bought even with BTC, so there's that too.
I am trying to think about things to buy.. and not really wanting a ranch or a lake or a helicopter or even a yacht.. but sometimes, being able to buy those kinds of things could change preferences.. just merely because "you can"... so even if you are not itching to spend money at the moment.. you still might develop some itches when it becomes more and more tempting... I remember even in early 2018.. I just could not bear continuing to do certain things related to a business that I had been operating.. so I acted in a way that I would not have done had it not been for bitcoin...
For me, there are some other things too, and even if I don't really want to get into details, if someone that I trust told me that they wanted me to help them with a project - and largely they are doing all the work and I am just going to provide some supplemental capital.. I agreed to do it, even though it would have been quite a bit beyond my area of interest previously.. and I don't even care if I get the money back.. even though I have high levels of confidence that I am getting everything (and even a bit more back) out of the whole thing that caused me hardly to blink in terms of the costs that I ended up contributing. There have been several other small examples, but I will refrain from elaborating for now... and part of my point is that just having the money (look 5.5x since September.. a mere year.. and ups and downs have ironed themselves out.. to cause our current price situation to feel even more solid) can cause some behavioral changes "on the margins."
Having said all of the above, I still believe and predict a major non-ant UPpity action this year, possibly touching 6-digit prices. It could happen with decent odds. And even if it doesn't, the odds of it happening soon after will approach 100% in the coming years, as we get closer to the next Halving.
tl;dr: Bitcoin is not only about material needs. It can take care of you in more ways than you thought possible when you first bought it years ago. No need to rush it or worry about short-term price noise. Just let it do its thing, and it will reward you greatly. That's the way I see it, anyway.
I am not going to dispute you on these points.. and I had already given some of my numbers which had supra $1.5 million as the most bullish of scenarios by 3rd quarter 2022.. and sure more conservative scenarios are more likely... no need to reiterate those numbers, here and at this point since we are likely in similar ways of thinking about all of this, even if there might be a wee bit of variance in what words we use to attempt to describe our variations on BTC zen status.
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