I agree.
Now he's saying that as long as the price trudges along the "lower bound" aka $40-50K, it's still valid. But look at his chart, it could literally still do that and go sideways until mid-2024.
Which is what I've been saying all along. His $100K by Christmas 2021 scenario was never a certainty. But he did say that it was or else S2F invalid.
An EOY parabolic run was expected by the majority, so the market was inclined to go another direction.
Isn't this the trap that the n00bs fall into literally every bull run tho?
Bitcoin no does not do sideways.
So whether you or PlanB would be saying sideways until 2024 that sounds like a ridiculously unlikely scenario, and either of you would be looney or out of touch with reality to be saying it.
You misunderstood, J.
I did not say it would go sideways until mid-2024. I said that PlanB is saying that if the price were to stay in the lower bounds of his S2F model, that it would still be valid. And that if you look at the lower bounds of the $40-55k range on his chart, it extends out until mid-2024.
So ask yourself, what is HE saying then? But I guess we're the looney/out of touch ones, not him?
Oh.. I was just thinking that it could be that we end up having something like $50k average for this halvening period.. and surely at that point maybe aspects of PlanB's model might need to be reconsidered.. and so 50% performance from the expectations of the model might well be considered as a possible failure.. perhaps? perhaps? I personally am not even willing to consider a $50k average (if it were to occur) for this halvening period as a failure yet.. let's see how the second half of this halvening period plays out..
PlanB is who made the initial claims, and is now moving the goalposts. Why should you conform to his redefinition of success or failure of the S2F model along with him?
Now, do I personally think it'll stay in this price range all the way to mid 2024? Well of course not. I don't even think it'll stay here all the way through next year.
I thought that I sufficiently explained myself regarding both stocktoflow and planB...so we may well be talking past each other to a certain extent - and I still think that you are the one who continues to fail/refuse to appreciate what the stocktoflow model is based on and what it is saying.. .and you just seem to want to get caught up in personalities and even attributing way too high of probabilities to even what either stocktoflow or planB is saying. Even if several times you make decent points, it's almost as if you are quibbling for the mere sake of it.
In the end, everyone here (you, me and PlanB) seems to agree that there continues to be a lot of decently strong UPwards price pressures on BTC.. so who gives any ratt's asses how closely such future performance might end up conforming with BTC price models that might be better at showing what happened rather than what is going to happen... In the end, people are going to make choices regarding whether to get into bitcoin and how to strategize their getting in in terms of how fast they might try to get in based on their circumstances.
Guys like you, me and even PlanB are likely already sufficiently in, so maybe we are moreso inclined to consider the extent to which we might allow our views about future BTC price actions to influence if we sell any BTC now or if we wait for higher prices (in the event such higher prices happen as we expect)... so in the end, are there much if any material differences in which we might see the BTC price going.. and seem to me that you are getting irritated because you believe that PlanB attributes more certainty to UPpity than it deserves..so newbies are getting lured into BTC under such false pretenses, and I assert that you are likely exaggerating the extent to which newbies are being mislead, and maybe even you are continuously contradicting yourself because you have already said several times that you do not give any shits about newbies. So what is it that you give a shit about? Yeah, it's easy as fuck to criticize models and attribute bad motives to PlanB, but really is that helping anyone to more clearly attempt to think through these matters that in any event remain probability based for all of us. whether we assign higher or lower probability levels to certain happenings? Yeah, numerous times, I have already criticized PlanB for his supposed "bottom" assignments.. .. and also on numerous occasions, I have also asserted that stocktoflow ideas already existed in BTC before PlanB.. but I still find his laying out the data and even talking about the various rationales behind applying stock to flow to bitcoin remains very helpful depictions and framings of facts and logic.. that lend very good insight to where bitcoin is likely to be going even if the model might be a wee bit off in regards to some of the specifics....
So, again, what good does it do to get so caught up in the weeds of the specifics and to complain about misleading information out there.. I just find it less than helpful that you are continuously seeming to be so worked up about PlanB's model misleading people.. which seems to have little purpose behind it.. and hey what do I know? are we beating this horse to death?
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