Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[heslo]

Merry Christmas lads!

[PoolMinor]

Get ready for +$200K next year!

Current situation on Wall Street Market Cycle......

New phase called "Belief-Denial" located just above "Optimism" and below "Belief"









I am predicting next blow-off top near May 2022. Since it didn't happen already this year.

[serveria.com]

This is the big problem with electric cars: Once the powertrain warranty is out, the value of the car is pretty much zero. Gas engines can go 200k miles and can be fixed without a full replacement.

I remember in 2005 the roads were full of Gen 1 Priuses. Then they started to just disappear, and now I doubt anyone has seem one in years. Why? Battery pack blowing out and while you can swap it for a couple of thousand, most people just junked em.

It's a problem.

Not to defend Tesla here - horrible build quality and Musk is a smug asshole - but their batteries can last 200k-300k, I've seen a quite a few with that mileage. And Model S is supposedly a luxury car that can do 0-60 in like 4 seconds, so that $22k should be compared to maybe M5 or E63 engine replacement? Plus there are battery repair options available, just not in Finland apparently.

Anyway, we're at peak dinosaur juice technology, and electric stuff will only get better.

Speaking about battery repair: I know a guy who's doing battery repairs and according to him in most cases it's not necessary to replace the entire battery pack. What they do is test all batteries inside a battery pack and find the faulty ones. Then they replace the faulty batteries with some used ones so that voltage is approx the same. Such repairs are quite cheap if compared to battery pack replacement and the batteries perform really well too.

[serveria.com]

Get ready for +$200K next year!

Current situation on Wall Street Market Cycle......

New phase called "Belief-Denial" located just above "Optimism" and below "Belief"



I am predicting next blow-off top near May 2022. Since it didn't happen already this year.

Same thoughts here: Late Q1 - early Q2 we're going parabolic! 

[AlcoHoDL]

This is the big problem with electric cars: Once the powertrain warranty is out, the value of the car is pretty much zero. Gas engines can go 200k miles and can be fixed without a full replacement.

I remember in 2005 the roads were full of Gen 1 Priuses. Then they started to just disappear, and now I doubt anyone has seem one in years. Why? Battery pack blowing out and while you can swap it for a couple of thousand, most people just junked em.

It's a problem.

Not to defend Tesla here - horrible build quality and Musk is a smug asshole - but their batteries can last 200k-300k, I've seen a quite a few with that mileage. And Model S is supposedly a luxury car that can do 0-60 in like 4 seconds, so that $22k should be compared to maybe M5 or E63 engine replacement? Plus there are battery repair options available, just not in Finland apparently.

Anyway, we're at peak dinosaur juice technology, and electric stuff will only get better.

Speaking about battery repair: I know a guy who's doing battery repairs and according to him in most cases it's not necessary to replace the entire battery pack. What they do is test all batteries inside a battery pack and find the faulty ones. Then they replace the faulty batteries with some used ones so that voltage is approx the same. Such repairs are quite cheap if compared to battery pack replacement and the batteries perform really well too.

I think I read somewhere that these packs contain regular 18650 cells. I was amazed at first, but then it made sense: ready-made, mature, tried-and-tested cells = easier, quicker, possibly safer design. I guess one could replace the faulty ones if they are physically accessible.

One thing that I've always wondered though: with the 18650 cell being cylindrical, won't there be wasted space between them in the pack? Wouldn't it be better to design rectangular-shaped cells, so that they are stacked more efficiently in the pack?

[cAPSLOCK]

OK.  What is going on?  the mempool is HAMMERED right now according to my little copy of mempool.space.  Is something wrong with my node?




Nope... seems like this is really like that.

Something is going on... what is it?  Someone is spamming the chain, or... or...  Why ALL OF A SUDDEN a huge pile of 2sat/vB transactions?  If you were REALLY trying to spam it you would do 1sat right?

The other weird part is, right now you'd just need to do a fee of 4 sats and you are in the next block...

This is odd!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Syke]

One thing that I've always wondered though: with the 18650 cell being cylindrical, won't there be wasted space between them in the pack? Wouldn't it be better to design rectangular-shaped cells, so that they are stacked more efficiently in the pack?

Packing circles is approximately 91% space-efficient. I figure the weight and cost are far more important than a tiny amount of space.

[serveria.com]

OK.  What is going on?  the mempool is HAMMERED right now according to my little copy of mempool.space.  Is something wrong with my node?




Nope... seems like this is really like that.

Something is going on... what is it?  Someone is spamming the chain, or... or...  Why ALL OF A SUDDEN a huge pile of 2sat/vB transactions?  If you were REALLY trying to spam it you would do 1sat right?

The other weird part is, right now you'd just need to do a fee of 4 sats and you are in the next block...

This is odd!

Yepp, I'm waiting for a couple of transactions to confirm. One incoming transaction arrived earlier today and got confirmed quickly (the fee was 3sat/b) the other is still unconfirmed (40mb from tip!). The fee for this transaction is 1sat/b. So yeah something is definitely is not ok with the mempool. 

[cAPSLOCK]

OK.  What is going on?  the mempool is HAMMERED right now according to my little copy of mempool.space.  Is something wrong with my node?




Nope... seems like this is really like that.

Something is going on... what is it?  Someone is spamming the chain, or... or...  Why ALL OF A SUDDEN a huge pile of 2sat/vB transactions?  If you were REALLY trying to spam it you would do 1sat right?

The other weird part is, right now you'd just need to do a fee of 4 sats and you are in the next block...

This is odd!

Yepp, I'm waiting for a couple of transactions to confirm. One incoming transaction arrived earlier today and got confirmed quickly (the fee was 3sat/b) the other is still unconfirmed (40mb from tip!). The fee for this transaction is 1sat/b. So yeah something is definitely is not ok with the mempool. 

Well... if you can wait on the 1sat transaction, I imagine it will clear eventually, possibly this weekend.  Looking at recent history there have been a few of these type of events with a big blast of low fee traffic.  Usually with a little more organic spread of fees though... this sort of seems like a single actor with a huge pile of transactions and a lot of tolerance for waiting?

On the other hand, I have to admit, I am very fond of RBF.   I had never really thought how that feature renders the spam attacks on the chain fairly moot.

[d_eddie]

On the other hand, I have to admit, I am very fond of RBF.   I had never really thought how that feature renders the spam attacks on the chain fairly moot.

That must be the reason why big blockers were and still are so sour with RBF 

[cAPSLOCK]

On the other hand, I have to admit, I am very fond of RBF.   I had never really thought how that feature renders the spam attacks on the chain fairly moot.

That must be the reason why big blockers were and still are so sour with RBF 

Indeed.  It never made sense to me 'till now.  But that is definitely why, lol.

That said, the more I look at this the more I am betting this is a LARGE actor, like an exchange doing some UTXO cleanup during what will likely be some pretty dead days for the mempool.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Seeing RBF mentioned, I used CPFP for the first time this year. I’m actually not a massively gifted techie so I found that a really cool feature. Bitcoin really is incredible isn’t it

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Krubster]

Happy hodliday guys!

[Biodom]

yes, Happy Holidays!

[AlcoHoDL]

One thing that I've always wondered though: with the 18650 cell being cylindrical, won't there be wasted space between them in the pack? Wouldn't it be better to design rectangular-shaped cells, so that they are stacked more efficiently in the pack?

Packing circles is approximately 91% space-efficient. I figure the weight and cost are far more important than a tiny amount of space.

Yeah, Pi * sqrt(3) / 6 ≈ 90.69% to be exact. I guess, like you say, other factors are more important than 10% higher energy density.

[cAPSLOCK]

Seeing RBF mentioned, I used CPFP for the first time this year. I’m actually not a massively gifted techie so I found that a really cool feature. Bitcoin really is incredible isn’t it

You are one ahead of me!  

I have done a few RBF transactions.  But I have never done CPFP.  That's cool that that exists too.

I never stops amazing me how important the game theory part of Bitcoin is, and how important incentives are to helping make it work.

Bitcoin has ABSOLUTELY shown the amazing power of opensource software.  Yes we all know about Firefox, and Chromium.  And a few nerds run linux.  But all but the Linux die-hards see it as the weird "off brand" OS (that happens to run almost the entire internet).

Satoshi rightly gets a lot of praise for releasing such an amazing thing, and then having the wisdom to hand it over to the world.  But, the developers of the software who have continued to shepherd it wisely doing things like adding RBF and CPFP don;t always get the credit they deserve.  While the WHOLE WORLD clamors for features like all the shitcoins have without seeing that a lot of these "features" have cost people millions, and billions of dollars in losses.  And at the same time the shitcoiners yelp about things like RBF, when that new functionality actually strengthens the foundation on which Bitcoin runs.  While certain assholes even threaten and SUE the devs making their work even harder (or at times impossible).

These developers are making the RIGHT decisions, and because of it the crooked financial system of the world will be toppled by a rag tag troop of neckbeards.

It's basically a David and Goliath story.

Yes!  It really is incredible.  Or perhaps so credible it's hard to believe!

[BitcoinBunny]

The only trouble I have with my own car is having to replace the 12V battery pretty often but it's because of the lack of car usage as I work from home and hardly been going anywhere the last couple of years due to the pandemic. And when I do it's a very short journey. But it's only 100-130 bucks to replace the battery.

There is a device out there that will disconnect the battery if the voltage drops close to low enough to start damaging the battery. I was looking into it as I had a Jag that would kill the battery if it was left to sit for about three weeks.

Alternatively, I have a device that I built that will report the battery voltage over wifi. You could set things up so you would get alerts if the battery voltage dropped too low. I've only done preliminary testing so far but haven't tested in in action as I no longer have the Jag and the VW will go for many months without draining the battery.

Thanks for the tip. I had a look and can see some bluetooth options. I do have a decent topdon battery tester which tells me what I need to know I guess. It's only really a problem in winter.
But there definitely seems to be some extra phantom drain on the car I have now. Didn't have this problem with my previous Fords or Mazdas which would also sit unused for a week quite often and never replaced the batteries except on a MX5 which is understandable I guess.

In theory I could drive the car into my garage and leave a trickle charger on, but ideally I would need to convert the double doors to a single electric door. Might be worth it. (Not the money saving, but just knowing the car will always start)

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation