Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[AlcoHoDL]

Funny thing, in the live chat next to the James Webb telescope launch, they are debating whether Earth is flat or not...  

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[d_eddie]

A few pics from the telescope could settle that matter maybe?

Oh, of course not. It's too easy to hack the pics so the Earth looks round!

Fuckers, they want us the believe the spheroid in space fairy tale...

[shahzadafzal]

A few pics from the telescope could settle that matter maybe?

Oh, of course not. It's too easy to hack the pics so the Earth looks round!

Fuckers, they want us the believe the spheroid in space fairy tale...

Actually I heard they accept moon is a sphere and all other planets are also spherical just the earth is flat.  

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Torque]

Thanks for the tip. I had a look and can see some bluetooth options. I do have a decent topdon battery tester which tells me what I need to know I guess. It's only really a problem in winter.
But there definitely seems to be some extra phantom drain on the car I have now. Didn't have this problem with my previous Fords or Mazdas which would also sit unused for a week quite often and never replaced the batteries except on a MX5 which is understandable I guess.

In most modern cars, a phantom battery drain is likely due to either 1) an added third-party stereo head system, or 2) just the phantom power of the active alarm system itself while the car is locked, which also serves to prime the fuel pump when the doors are conversely unlocked. If the car is old like 10+ years, it can also be caused by faulty wiring, like a short in the driver side door wiring harness (because the wires get old and brittle over time, and with all the door opening/closing eventually cracks).

If I have a car sit for months, I just throw a trickle charger on the battery once a month to top it off.

[cAPSLOCK]

OK.  What is going on?  the mempool is HAMMERED right now according to my little copy of mempool.space.  Is something wrong with my node?




Nope... seems like this is really like that.

Something is going on... what is it?  Someone is spamming the chain, or... or...  Why ALL OF A SUDDEN a huge pile of 2sat/vB transactions?  If you were REALLY trying to spam it you would do 1sat right?

The other weird part is, right now you'd just need to do a fee of 4 sats and you are in the next block...

This is odd!

And just like that...

[aesma]

A few pics from the telescope could settle that matter maybe?

Oh, of course not. It's too easy to hack the pics so the Earth looks round!

Fuckers, they want us the believe the spheroid in space fairy tale...

Some years ago I was "debating" with people who didn't believe in the Moon landings. After some time I realized that you could put them on a spaceship, land them on the Moon, they would still not believe in it. Saved me a good chunk of "internet arguing time".

[cAPSLOCK]

Frankly, I don't get what he is saying... What means clarify "100k avg this cycle & regression analysis" ?


The only thing I can take away is:

Within 1sd range is sufficient, now.  Which essentially means no need for a 100k average anymore.  

I give him that: the model would still be useful in some ways.

But judging from my basic statistics skills, this s2f model can not be valid with an avg <100k.
Seems to me in order dodge that problem, he now allows a max error of 1sd.

I ask myself: why is he clinging to this model so intensely?  Does he fear a loss of reputation?
I'd think moving goal posts constantly harms reputation far more than admitting a model's failure.  And the 100k avg hasn't even been invalidated yet...

I conclude... he seems far more bearish than before.  Which is a great basis for a 2022 face ripping BTC volcano explosion  

Btw
Happy Christmas guys n gals  


 

I think this is basically what he is doing:



In the past he said two things:

1.  If it's not 100k by 12/21 then the model is broken.
2.  If it does not have an average of 100k for this cycle top, then it's invalidated.

So #1 is done... well, it will be in 1 week.

But #2 is still possible, but becoming more fantastical by the day.

Of course I would LOVE to see #2 come true, and in that case the longer it takes to get there the funner it would be.

In my opinion, he is busted on his December prediction.  I think he should own that bit, and concentrate on figuring out what is either wrong with the model, or his interpretation of it.

I agree.
#2 would be nice, but I doubt it as an average, even if we popped to 200k for a short time.

However, in order to save his ass in advance, he already threw #2 out of the window as a criteria for invalidation. Now, he is ok, as long as price stays within 1sd.  
For me he has def. gone too far with his (childish) goalpost moving. I cannot take him serious anymore.




 

It's sad really.  Because he came up with a glorious model.  And even from the beginning of it all he said all models break.

All he needs to do is shrug is shoulders and say "Well damn, the model has broken earlier than I thought it would."  And THEN get about the business of trying to explain why, or adjusting the model somehow to possibly be accurate into the future.  Not move the goalposts, but openly try to improve the model...  And the whole world would listen to him because he earned some serious credibility with S2F.

He could even do less than that, like say "Yeah my 100k by December" stand was a foolish and capricious move that actually ignores the way this model works (because it is and was)"  And then point out that the model has still not been invalidated entirely.

Basically what he is doing now, but with humility rather than the whole "Well here is what I really always meant" line which 7 year olds can see.

[savetherainforest]

GoodMorning brothers

Merry Christmas

The dude is overflowed with wine….

I rly can't get over it... every time I see "S2F"       ... I just see "SAVE THE FOREST"      

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Torque]

It's sad really.  Because he came up with a glorious model.  And even from the beginning of it all he said all models break.

All he needs to do is shrug is shoulders and say "Well damn, the model has broken earlier than I thought it would."  And THEN get about the business of trying to explain why, or adjusting the model somehow to possibly be accurate into the future.  Not move the goalposts, but openly try to improve the model...  And the whole world would listen to him because he earned some serious credibility with S2F.

He could even do less than that, like say "Yeah my 100k by December" stand was a foolish and capricious move that actually ignores the way this model works (because it is and was)"  And then point out that the model has still not been invalidated entirely.

Basically what he is doing now, but with humility rather than the whole "Well here is what I really always meant" line which 7 year olds can see.

It reminds me of the constant gaslighting, redefinition, and post moving that corrupt politicians and narcissists do.

Or people like CSW or Roger Ver: "BCash will take over and put an end to Bitcoin!" BSV will take over and put an end to Bitcoin!" "Follow me, listen to me! I know something that you don't!"

I mean srsly, aren't we over listening to, or even following, these types by now?

Do people really need to follow false prophets in order to invest in and be bullish on something? To be lead by the collar? Bitcoin is self-explanatory, it needs no leaders or prophets. Either you get it, or you don't.

I feel like if Michael Saylor woke up tomorrow and said he no longer believed in Bitcoin and said he was going to sell it all, 99% of his acolyte followers would all sheepishly sell their bitcoin as well. This is the state of the world we live in now.

[bitcoinPsycho]

A few pics from the telescope could settle that matter maybe?

Oh, of course not. It's too easy to hack the pics so the Earth looks round!

Fuckers, they want us the believe the spheroid in space fairy tale...

Actually I heard they accept moon is a sphere and all other planets are also spherical just the earth is flat.  

[Imranbutt44]

[Lucius]

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JimboToronto]

Good morning Bitcoinland. Merry Xmas and Happy Holidays, but mainly

Merry Fucking Xmas.

Peace on earth and goodwill to humankind, bulls and bears together.



Had a nice Xmas Eve turkey dinner at the local pub last night with the gang of regulars and we'll be off to a family Xmas ham dinner later this afternoon.

Hopefully we won't be too hung over and bloated tomorrow. Might wanna check out some Boxing Day sales.

Meanwhile prices are going sideways... currently $50740USD/$65005CAD Bitcoinaverage.

Ho hum. Go Bitcoin go.

[philipma1957]

A few pics from the telescope could settle that matter maybe?

Oh, of course not. It's too easy to hack the pics so the Earth looks round!

Fuckers, they want us the believe the spheroid in space fairy tale...

Some years ago I was "debating" with people who didn't believe in the Moon landings. After some time I realized that you could put them on a spaceship, land them on the Moon, they would still not believe in it. Saved me a good chunk of "internet arguing time".

but while they are on the moon you can simply open the airlock since they do not believe in the vacuum of space either.

[aesma]

It's sad really.  Because he came up with a glorious model.  And even from the beginning of it all he said all models break.

All he needs to do is shrug is shoulders and say "Well damn, the model has broken earlier than I thought it would."  And THEN get about the business of trying to explain why, or adjusting the model somehow to possibly be accurate into the future.  Not move the goalposts, but openly try to improve the model...  And the whole world would listen to him because he earned some serious credibility with S2F.

He could even do less than that, like say "Yeah my 100k by December" stand was a foolish and capricious move that actually ignores the way this model works (because it is and was)"  And then point out that the model has still not been invalidated entirely.

Basically what he is doing now, but with humility rather than the whole "Well here is what I really always meant" line which 7 year olds can see.

It reminds me of the constant gaslighting, redefinition, and post moving that corrupt politicians and narcissists do.

Or people like CSW or Roger Ver: "BCash will take over and put an end to Bitcoin!" BSV will take over and put an end to Bitcoin!" "Follow me, listen to me! I know something that you don't!"

I mean srsly, aren't we over listening to, or even following, these types by now?

Do people really need to follow false prophets in order to invest in and be bullish on something? To be lead by the collar? Bitcoin is self-explanatory, it needs no leaders or prophets. Either you get it, or you don't.

I feel like if Michael Saylor woke up tomorrow and said he no longer believed in Bitcoin and said he was going to sell it all, 99% of his acolyte followers would all sheepishly sell their bitcoin as well. This is the state of the world we live in now.

And if you get bitcoin, and by that I don't mean totally, but the overall concept, and its implications, then you should see that there is no reason its price should follow a model to a T. There are plenty of actors investing and trading all the time, how could the end result be "perfect" ? It will go up long term, that's the only certainty, and it's enough.

[Hueristic]

[fillippone]

Very nice.

I missed those.
And this is a very important piece of information about floor model.
I am going to replicate this in case I can figure out how he came out with those forecasts.


Merry Xmas WO Gang!