Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Biodom]

The year end seems to be quite annoying, isn't it?

2021 was not a great year by many occurrences:

1. A skimpy bull run despite all rah-rah-rah expectations. We basically did slightly better than double in four years; pretty good by stock market standards, quite low compared to what was expected.
2. Viral persistence. How many waves we gonna get?
3. Being totally tired of #2. Reinfection rises in the people I know.
4. The rise and rise of everyday rudeness...especially on our "autobahns".

Prediction:

Bitcoin is incompatible with your typical political/investor operator psyche.
As such, the path forward would be slower and more tenuous than I expected.
It is entirely possible that 'they' would try to control the narrative by pushing some solutions that are more easily controlled: it could be E-coin or S-coin or some other shitcoin (heck, it might even be xerp, once it settles), but it ain't going to be bitcoin as they cannot direct it to their benefit.

TL;DR Slow bitcoin in 2022, politicos heavily promoting a few shitcoins (probably the most corrupt ones). Fiat stock market slightly down, maybe 5-7%.

[Biodom]

These dumb-ass 5% bitcoin sales are annoying: It's not worth cashing in coin to buy back lower as the ~21% Capital gains tax will wipe out any profit.

Oi.

IOW: Capital Gains Tax makes it so that selling to rebuy lower is a losing move unless the after-sale dip is more than the CGT rate. Not limited to bitcoin: it's the same with stonks or any other financial asset.

unless it is long term rate sale.

...and, first $80,800 in long term cap gains are FREE (if you are married).

Not if your income (the stuff you get for being a wage slave) exceeds 80k. That is like the crappiest phase out ever. Unless I am wrong about that.

afaiu, LONG term cap gains are different from income, but who knows.
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/personal-finance/101515/comparing-longterm-vs-shortterm-capital-gain-tax-rates.asp

Your ordinary income is taxed first, at its higher relative tax rates, and long-term capital gains and dividends are taxed second, at their lower rates.
So, long-term capital gains can't push your ordinary income into a higher tax bracket, but they may push your capital gains rate into a higher tax bracket.

https://erwealth.com/podcastblog/will-capital-gains-push-me-into-a-higher-tax-bracket

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

 Otherwise, $100K-150K for no blow-off top, simply reaching the logarithmic growth upper band and reversing.

I don't really have any major problem with this kind of scenario ending up playing out because it is still very profitable for me, personally.

One of my problems with the considering of such scenario to be reasonable remains that it just does not seem to reflect bitcoin's history very well, and it does not even seem to fit very well into a kind of "smoothing of tops" kind of depiction of bitcoin as a maturing asset class... and maybe that ends up being part of the rub (the crux of it) that I have with these kinds of smoothing top depictions of bitcoin in that there seems to be some kind of built presumption that bitcoin is sufficiently maturing as an asset class in order to really meaningfully be considered in that kind of a way.. which I really have some difficulties accepting that as a very likely scenario (even though I understand and appreciate that any kind of scenario could end up playing out, even a kind of $100k to $150k whimpy top scenario as does seem to be amongst your favorites, even if you are reluctant to admit it... hahahahahahaha       ).

I'm not suggesting that closing the year below $48K would leave to sub $40K, but would likely be a catalyst for some sub $46K prices to return, like $44K and $42K I imagine.

Surely we have each expressed our views on this.  I don't have anything further that I want to add regarding my earlier assertions.  Maybe for you it matters more in terms of your attempts to trade when you see what you believe to be some kind of convincing tradable pattern, and for me, it's a big so what, in terms of my not changing my orders either way...

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[BitcoinBunny]

Well not much happening on the BTC front. Just the same like a whore's panties up and down of late.


Saw Spiderman - No Way Home this evening.

What an overhyped load of tosh. Bit sad the general audience buys into this dumb garbage at this rate. Honestly they could make a one minute trailer with Robert Downey Jr. coming onto the screen and saying "I'm Iron Man", do a loud fart and still get cheered on.

This dumb movie was entertaining in places to be fair but the heroes constantly behave like complete selfish and utter morons.

Could have been much better I reckon.
Couple of nice surprises but just a dumb self inflicted carry on mostly just doesn't seem to raise the stakes much.
Never understood why they make Zendaya look so plain in these films. She seems quite pretty elsewhere.

6/10

Awful having to wear masks again in the cinema in the UK.
Won't bother again until this rule disappears unless there is something unmissable on which doesn't happen often I guess.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Awful having to wear masks again in the cinema in the UK.
Won't bother again until this rule disappears unless there is something unmissable on which doesn't happen often I guess.

Dude, buy a sunflower lanyard. You can be exempt from wearing a mask. I’ve been doing it for ages.
They’re less thsn £5.
No mask & nobody will ask you why


https://hiddendisabilitiesstore.com/shop/sunflower-lanyards.html


My disability is that I am a degenerate OG bitcoiner.

[BitcoinBunny]

Awful having to wear masks again in the cinema in the UK.
Won't bother again until this rule disappears unless there is something unmissable on which doesn't happen often I guess.

Dude, buy a sunflower lanyard. You can be exempt from wearing a mask. I’ve been doing it for ages.
They’re less thsn £5.
No mask & nobody will ask you why


https://hiddendisabilitiesstore.com/shop/sunflower-lanyards.html


My disability is that I am a degenerate OG bitcoiner.

Yeah it's a good point.
I don't think any of that mask shit makes any difference when you are in a cinema for hours anyway.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Yeah it's a good point.
I don't think any of that mask shit makes any difference when you are in a cinema for hours anyway.

We’re 2 years in now & it still spreads like wild fire. It’s clear masks do very little by now.
People will be on their 4th jabs soon but we still have restrictions. I’ve been done with this bull shit for a long time now.

[Hueristic]

[Syke]

Congrats for ending 2021 with the highest number of cases of covid-19. Your anti-vax anti-mask is working well!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[cAPSLOCK]

Turducken.

[Arriemoller]

Congrats for ending 2021 with the highest number of cases of covid-19. Your anti-vax anti-mask is working well!

Well, it doesn't really matter if you get it, if it doesn't make you seriously ill.



Since you didn't bother to mention what country you were referring to I will do the same.
(see how easy it is to manipulate with graphs and numbers).

Changed my mind, my graph is for Sweden, I assume yours is for the UK since that's where LFC lives.

[Biodom]

Turducken.

popularized by Madden, RIP.

as far as other stuff...once you get it, it is your case, stats are mostly irrelevant...have wife's close relative in intense care rn (strain unknown), had to get oxygen as the "number" was getting to 83. Do we care about the overall stats? Of course, not, in this case, just about the particular individual situation. In a large scheme of things, this is relevant, of course.

[suchmoon]

afaiu, LONG term cap gains are different from income, but who knows.

In the US the federal long term cap gain tax rate depends on the total income. It can be 0, 15, or 20%.

Then there are state taxes, somewhere between 3-13%, although there are few states with 0%.

[Syke]

Since you didn't bother to mention what country you were referring to I will do the same.
(see how easy it is to manipulate with graphs and numbers).

Changed my mind, my graph is for Sweden, I assume yours is for the UK since that's where LFC lives.

Kudos for keeping the deaths low. Unfortunately, 1500 Americans are dying from it every day.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Biodom]

afaiu, LONG term cap gains are different from income, but who knows.

In the US the federal long term cap gain tax rate depends on the total income. It can be 0, 15, or 20%.

Then there are state taxes, somewhere between 3-13%, although there are few states with 0%.

Probably true, but a simplification.

according to the blog post i cited,

Example: You are married, have 200K income and 200K long term cap gains.
Your "regular" combined income is taxed at 32%, but your longterm cap gains are taxed at 15%.
See the table in here:
https://erwealth.com/podcastblog/will-capital-gains-push-me-into-a-higher-tax-bracket

Capital gains will not cause your ordinary income to be taxed at a higher rate..
So, again, long-term capital gains are taxed at different rates and separately from your ordinary income.

Unless i completely misunderstand their "slang" it appears that you could be taxed differently for reg income and for cap gains.

[JayJuanGee]

they’re slowly learning that much of this is unnecessary because Bitcoin was designed in such a way that wallets can be frozen, and funds can be moved by court order. In other words, code is not law, law is law.

To imagine how this might work in the future, let’s imagine that Ulbricht’s Silk Road was still active today. If authorities could prove that wallets x, y, and z belonged to Silk Road, say by using blockchain analytics tools combined with traditional investigation techniques, they could secure court orders from judges that issue the orders to miners/nodes and have them simply freeze the funds. Later, a court could order the miners/nodes to move the funds from the Silk Road wallets to the wallets of the receiving agency.

Hahahaha, good luck with that. Secure court orders to miners in Iceland, or inner Mongolia. Sure.

Only if it was that simple.

Yes code is not the law but “open source” code is the law.

IOW, indeed.

Full article here https://coingeek.com/how-much-btc-has-us-government-seized-and-what-does-it-do-with-it/

Maybe part of the comedy is the article's use of the expression:  "simply freeze the funds" which hardly any government or court is going to be that dumb to even try it, are they?  It would be the kind of thing that would inspire scoff law and show the government's impotence in that direction.. so many of us would likely speculate that no government nor court would even want to play that kind of an "order the freeze" card.

Luckily, I'm not addicted to crypto at all.

I might have a mild dependence on bitcoin, though...

Good point.

Until I saw your post, I was kind of wondering what that "crypto" thingie-ma-jiggie was and if it were to be somehow related to bitcoin.

Luckily, I'm not addicted to crypto at all.

I might have a mild dependence on bitcoin, though...

Bro, what is life without bitcoin….

Wait... there IS LIFE without Bitcoin? Or life AFTER Bitcoin like in mindrust's case?  

Life is definitely worse without bitcoin.

It seems that a lot of us would be a pretty pathetic kind of a place without bitcoin.. Maybe we would end up turning into various kinds of political activists? or detached?  or in the woods like Ted Kaczynski?  I suppose that there could be ways to still feel that there is something that can be done about any investment that we make to be in a kind of peril.  Maybe we would hedge with real estate or gold, but surely the gold bugs are not doing good these days.  Would gold do better if bitcoin did not exist? Perhaps?

Another reason to feel lucky that we are not in a position in which we would have to choose some of those various inferior investments.

[edited out]

I can buy $50 a day pretty easy peasy by simply selling the alt coin I simply do not like or  mention. I mine a lot of it I am over invested in gpus. It is why I have been buying $50 a day since we dropped i from the 60k level I think it was on Nov 23.

I sold 17-18k at 61-67k and then went about buying it back using the unnamed shit coin sales.

Of course, we have discussed the idea of make up contributions that exist for retirement plans in the USA for anyone who is 50 years or older, so in the USA, retirement plans may well only allow for the contribution of around $20k per year, but if you are 50 years old or older, then you can add an additional $6,500 to your amount.

So maybe you are considering something similar, philip?  A kind of making up of the stacking of sats.

For sure there could be ways to make $50 per day or $350 per week to be sustainable, yet it is surely a bit more than most normies would be willing to contribute.. but surely, if you are able to sustain an extra $350 per week, then maybe you would want to just keep it as a current practice until you are either at fuck you status or getting close to fuck you status (whatever you determine that fuck you status to be, whether it is $2 million, $3.75 million as you had mentioned before, or some other amount that you believe might be suitable to your specifics).  

Of course, one of the reasons that some of us might seem to get either greedy or anxious in our own stacking of sats is because frequently there can be feelings of security to either arrive to fuck you status early or to end up exceeding it; however, I am also an advocate of NOT letting the perfect be the enemy of the good because if you are able to manage and evaluate your BTC holdings in a way that accounts for volatility, then you should end up in a position that you had ended up pulling the fuck you lever too early.

I know that my charts might not always be sufficiently flexible, but let's say that in your case you had more or less started $350 extra invested in BTC per week and we can presume a starting point of around $50k and an average BTC price appreciation of about 12% per year, so we can see from the below chart that you would end up at around 1.2 BTC extra after four years of sticking with such an ongoing BTC accumulation plan, and nearly 2 BTC if you were able to continue for 8 years.  Of course, I understand that you do not have 8 years, but you just want to put yourself in a better position in a relatively soon time of maybe even less than 5 years, if that were possible.  Of course, I recognize and appreciate that I am projecting out some pretty whimpy BTC appreciation values, but in any case there is going to be some difficulties in having some kind of fair estimation that ends up being accurate, even though we can get some ballpark ideas, and also we can even create our own charts and tweak the assumptions contained therein.


Start $                StartDate                 % gain /time          Time                         Price/BTC                #BTC
$0                        11/23/21                     6.00%                    182.6                   $50,000.00               0.00000000

DCA-$350/Wk                                                                            
   

Date                           $Value                        DCA-Add                    TotInvstd                Profits                 Price/BTC             #BTC
   5/24/22                    $9,646                           $9,646                       $9,100                   6.00%               $53,000                 0.18200000
   11/23/22                    $19,871                           $9,646                       $18,200            9.18%               $56,180                 0.35369811
   5/24/23                    $30,709                           $9,646                       $27,300            12.49%               $59,551                 0.51567747
   11/23/23                    $42,198                           $9,646                       $36,400            15.93%               $63,124                 0.66848817
   5/24/24                    $54,375                           $9,646                       $45,500            19.51%               $66,911                 0.81264922
   11/22/24                    $67,284                           $9,646                       $54,600            23.23%               $70,926                 0.94865021
   5/24/25                    $80,967                           $9,646                       $63,700            27.11%               $75,182                 1.07695303
   11/22/25                    $95,471                           $9,646                       $72,800            31.14%               $79,692                 1.19799342
   5/24/26                    $110,845                           $9,646                       $81,900            35.34%               $84,474                 1.31218247
   11/23/26                    $127,142                           $9,646                       $91,000            39.72%               $89,542                 1.41990799
   5/24/27                    $144,416                           $9,646                       $100,100            44.27%               $94,915                 1.52153584
   11/23/27                    $162,727                           $9,646                       $109,200            49.02%               $100,610                 1.61741117
   5/23/28                    $182,137                           $9,646                       $118,300            53.96%               $106,646                 1.70785960
   11/22/28                    $202,711                           $9,646                       $127,400            59.11%               $113,045                 1.79318830
   5/24/29                    $224,520                           $9,646                       $136,500            64.48%               $119,828                 1.87368707
   11/22/29                    $247,637                           $9,646                       $145,600            70.08%               $127,018                 1.94962932