Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[d_eddie]

No down before up? Muh famili, y'know, short, gu gu gu...

BTW I see you're a legendary now. I must have missed that (along with the rip to 400k and up). My congrats!

[dragonvslinux]

No down before up? Muh famili, y'know, short, gu gu gu...

Not today my friend, the on-chain analysis is pointing too high, and has been for months now. It's looking like pre-halving and March 2020 all over gain (just without the 50% supply shock).
In summary while the price technicals have looked shit for weeks, the on-chain analysis hasn't looked this bullish in 18-22 months. Megalolz incoming.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

Eeek...

Tradingwise still up for a long ?  

Tradingwise is all over the place in terms of timelines, so not really easy to play those waves with any kind of reliability, but I do get what you are saying that it seems that bets should be long when we are within a kind of 35% correction arena.. but who knows? who knows?

If you already have a lot of bitcoin, then it might not really matter too much, if you have a decent stash and you are still DCA'ing you might not care too much (except feeling that you might be getting some bargains currently), if you are buying the dip, it feels good in terms of probabilities, but again, who knows for sure.  Of course if you do not have any coins or if you are decently under-exposed to BTC, then it should seem that these prices are good places to stock up decently well, even if we might have more corrections from here.. and surely  a 4-10 year timeline or more should seem that this is a good buying place, too.

Another way of thinking about if we are talking about longer term view and even medium term view then we should be able to appreciate that we have had quite a bit of ongoing up... ...   Again shorter term would likely be more ambiguous, unless we are talking about the doldrums that we seemed to have had been in May/June and July, so from those lower $30ks and even dipping into upper $20ks on a few occasions in May/June/July, we had our more than 2x, if we look from $30k to $69k and then back down to $46.5k-ish we still have 1.5x-ish UP, and even if we look down to our lowest correction to $41,967, we will had 1.4x UP from the $30k-ish.... so even with some of the mediocre framings of our level of UP from $30k-ish in July 2021, we still should be able to appreciate that our odds for going UP from here are not bad at all.. I am thinking well into the 50%s. probably supra 55%.. but that also depends on how framing the numbers and the timeline too.. in spite some of the pessimism we have been recently hearing regarding which direction some folks consider that we might be going short to medium term..

There are a few locations that folks can end up getting reckt, and sure one of them is selling too much on the way up.. but another one is either selling on the way down (after already having had a 39% correction) and/or failing refusing to buy on a decent dip, such as this.. Of course, you do not get reckt as badly if you just HODL or just ongoingly DCA, so one of the dilemmas about buying on the dip remains the questions about whether we are dipping more.. and we know king daddy is not against surprising even though most loyal of HODLers.. hahahahaha.  ...

causing me to frequently assert that DCA is way the hell more superior to buying the dip, even though some buying the dip can supplement DCA so long as you keep on DCAing.

Sure, who's to say if we might not be revisiting either the lower $30ks or even dipping into the $20ks - yet several of us seem to have decently optimistic senses that the coming several months or perhaps even expanding into 2-3 quarters have good chances for resuming up, and really matters would seem to play out weirdly if $69k were to end up serving as our top for this period/cycle .. and no one here would be poo-pooing the exponential nature of the about 6.5x price rise from September 2020 to April 2021 (even though it is quite a bit smaller than earlier exponential price rise periods in bitcoinlandia), but we have so far had two decently large corrections from that.. and sure there are bearwhales who would like to foil additional toppenings from happening... but what are the odds?  What are the odds?

I am actually kind of wishing that some entities that are not sufficiently covering their exposure to bitcoin by engaging in some kinds of fractional reserve practices (meaning that they are not holding as much bitcoin as they are betting against it.. and yeah maybe it is not the entities not holding the bitcoin but their empowering of their clients to use dollars to bet against bitcoin without anyone buying any bitcoin), I hope that they get reckt as fuck.. and it seems that their practices in that regard does give them a lot of exposure to bitcoin moving up... which would reck them because they are betting against such UP - even if it seems that they have infinite supplies of cash to spend in those kinds of practices..  

Will they get reckt, as they deserve, is a kind of related question, and I am hoping that I am not the one in the fantasy looking forward to them getting reckt if it were to not end up happening..  

We will see.. we will see...  I still say that the next 1-9 months are critical^tm.

Edited (about 3 hours after original post):  cleared up some phraseology and added a few supplement ideas therein.

[philipma1957]

No down before up? Muh famili, y'know, short, gu gu gu...

Not today my friend, the on-chain analysis is pointing too high, and has been for months now. It's looking like pre-halving and March 2020 all over gain (just without the 50% supply shock).
In summary while the price technicals have looked shit for weeks, the on-chain analysis hasn't looked this bullish in 18-22 months. Megalolz incoming.

I am hoping you are correct.

[dragonvslinux]

No down before up? Muh famili, y'know, short, gu gu gu...

Not today my friend, the on-chain analysis is pointing too high, and has been for months now. It's looking like pre-halving and March 2020 all over gain (just without the 50% supply shock).
In summary while the price technicals have looked shit for weeks, the on-chain analysis hasn't looked this bullish in 18-22 months. Megalolz incoming.

I am hoping you are correct.

4 words: Patience is a virtue.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[LFC_Bitcoin]

@TravisMCrypto
Are you willing to lose money on a trade? 📈

If not, then don't take it.

You can only win if you're not afraid to lose.

And you can only do that if you truly accept the risks in front of you 🥃
https://twitter.com/travismccrypto/status/1478259720330776577?s=21


@therationalroot
Market still in fear but there seems to be a pattern.👀
BTC

https://twitter.com/therationalroot/status/1478397317334061060?s=21


@Gameoftrades_
Large amounts of leverage have been building up on #btc  

Volatility incoming! I’m excited 👀

https://twitter.com/gameoftrades_/status/1478417520507957254?s=21


@ByzGeneral
Unless your name is Sam, 45k is not a good spot to start shorting.

$BTC

https://twitter.com/byzgeneral/status/1478355971214917639?s=21

[d_eddie]

Currently covid positive (and my son too). Light flu symptoms.. nothing to worry, it seems.

Suffering from power outages in my 3rd word city of Buenos Aires.. damn heat waves all week long.. isolated due to covid.. and the corn doing nothing..  what could be worse?

The same, and the corn going down.

Be well soon, you and your son! Lame omicron, it's just a flu(TM) hopefully.

[_javi_]

Currently covid positive (and my son too). Light flu symptoms.. nothing to worry, it seems.

Suffering from power outages in my 3rd word city of Buenos Aires.. damn heat waves all week long.. isolated due to covid.. and the corn doing nothing..  what could be worse?

The same, and the corn going down.

Be well soon, you and your son! Lame omicron, it's just a flu(TM) hopefully.

Thanks for the good vibes.
I hope the best for you too.

Money it's the important thing, health come and go. Or was it the other way?? 

[bitcoinPsycho]

Can't wait any longer

[AlcoHoDL]

Currently covid positive (and my son too). Light flu symptoms.. nothing to worry, it seems.

Suffering from power outages in my 3rd word city of Buenos Aires.. damn heat waves all week long.. isolated due to covid.. and the corn doing nothing..  what could be worse?

The same, and the corn going down.

Be well soon, you and your son! Lame omicron, it's just a flu(TM) hopefully.

Thanks for the good vibes.
I hope the best for you too.

Money it's the important thing, health come and go. Or was it the other way??  

All the very best to _javi_ & son, and d_eddie. Hope it clears away soon. Omicron seems to feel like Just A Flu^TM, as you say, so hopefully all will be fine in a few days.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[OutOfMemory]

The Kings Man was good, watch it instead.

I remember that i watched it. I kept it on harddrive, so it was good enough to keep an re-watch it.

Scratch that, i confused it with "Kingsman" (Part 1, that is).
Waiting for a quality rip of The King's Man now... 

[d_eddie]

I am actually kind of wishing that some entities that are not sufficiently covering their exposure to bitcoin by engaging in some kinds of fractional reserve practices
-snip-
get reckt as fuck..

I still say that the next 1-9 months are critical^tm.

+1 on both points

[LoyceV]

When I first saw the broken poll, I wanted to tick $225,000 too. Then I wondered wtf happened to me that made me so bearish, and decided to take >300,000

[Flangler1]

No down before up? Muh famili, y'know, short, gu gu gu...

Not today my friend, the on-chain analysis is pointing too high, and has been for months now. It's looking like pre-halving and March 2020 all over gain (just without the 50% supply shock).
In summary while the price technicals have looked shit for weeks, the on-chain analysis hasn't looked this bullish in 18-22 months. Megalolz incoming.

Which ones are bullish right now? I would say that most of them are rather neutral than bullish for example https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/relative-unrealized-profit--loss/

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

Not good at quoting twitter :

https://twitter.com/mikealfred/status/1477817990695428098

Mike Alfred
@mikealfred

I talked to 15 billionaires last week.

Every one of them asked about #Bitcoin

Not a single one asked about Cardano, Ripple, Hex, Doge, or NFTs

2:44 AM · Jan 3, 2022·Twitter for Android

Now that I think about it, I might be talking to 15 billionaires, right here on this thread !

Currently, entry-level billionaire status is just shy of 22k BTC, and there are some of us who consider that BTC has another 1,000x to 10,000x to go from here.. so of course the billionaire status level will be coming down in terms of the quantity of coins required for billionaire status for folks who are ready, willing and able to hang onto or to continue to build that many coins.. and sure could be some of us who might not quite be there but willing to continue to HODL and/or BUIDL up to such a status....

Just consider that amongst the more optimistic of scenarios of the 10,000x from here, would put 22 coins at billionaire status. Might take more than 50 years to get to that kind of 10,000x from here...so are many of us still going to be alive and have any vigor at that point?  

By the way, 10x from here puts bitcoin at about parity with gold, and so many of us assess bitcoin to pretty easily be 100x of gold.. and likely 1,000x of gold (which would be a 10,000x from here scenario), but getting bitcoin's price 10,000x up from here to 1,000x of gold could take a bit of time...and also put bitcoin at about a quadrillion dollar market cap.. which seem like even a bit more than total storage of value/currency asset classes in existence yet  even bitcoin reaching 10x gold could take more than a couple of cycles .. but not impossible... and also there are a few justifications for bitcoin reaching a quadrillion dollars in today's value (yes no need to assume the value of the hyperinflated currencies to get there) - and one of the ideas would be that value that is in existence can continue to increase outside of inflationary practices because new value is created with new technologies (even though there could be some limits on the value that can be created.. but there are likely some pretty high exponential aspects to such value creation that comes through technological innovations and network effects from that too).

Just back to your assessment aesma of 15 current billionaires reading this thread.. there seem to be quite a few folks in bitcoin that could reach our current 22k coins status to make them a current billionaire.. but not sure if they are coming to this thread... there could be some 1,000 coiners participating in this thread..not sure if names are necessary... but currently that is ONLY a mere $50 million value status.

Not good at quoting twitter :

https://twitter.com/mikealfred/status/1477817990695428098

Mike Alfred
@mikealfred

I talked to 15 billionaires last week.

Every one of them asked about #Bitcoin

Not a single one asked about Cardano, Ripple, Hex, Doge, or NFTs

2:44 AM · Jan 3, 2022·Twitter for Android

Now that I think about it, I might be talking to 15 billionaires, right here on this thread !

Sure, and what were these 15 billionaires asking about before 2021? So from now on, I am supposed to support BTC even more, because of these billionaires' topic of conversation?

Am I really the only one on these boards who doesn't give a shit about what these 15 billionaires asked about?

Seriously, what a lame tweet

edit: probably the first time EVER that I used the word 'lame' on these boards. #nohomo tho

I don't completely agree with the level of your being turned off friends1980, even though I get what you seem to be stating regarding how much overemphasis many of us sometimes place on the rich and famous.... so surely a lot of us have been into bitcoin for several years before many of the billionnaires who are now coming into BTC... no problem with front-running those folks.. but they are likely richer than us and likely to continue to be richer than us if they are coming into bitcoin fairly BIG these days, but likely not going to really hurt us.. what do we mind if a number of billionaires start to both show how big their dicks and status are and try to hoard all the bitcoins.... It should not really hurt us longer term HODLers too much..so long as some of their games (including that dweeb Elon) might start to play in their coin hoppenings.

On another note, we used to talk about millionaires in the way that billionnaires are currently talked about, but gosh does anyone below $100 million matter anymore?  So it well could be that the billionaire has become the new millionaire.... and surely in the next 4-10 years, we are likely going to have at least a quadrupling of the billionaire class... and surely are many of the new entrants going to be bitcoiners?  Fuck the shitcoiners, but some of them will be in there, too.