@JJG...of course, no substantive response, but more name-calling.
We are not in a middle high, pal, in case you did not notice.
I did notice the name-calling.... that seems to be your go-to.. and surely easily provoked into such.... I hardly even need to say boo.... and there you go into it.
I still stand by my own assertion, made a long time ago, that we are in the $30-60K "flat", oscillating within.
yeah, but are you sticking with that range for the remainder of the calendar year? Even though you asserted it, you are not really willing to go there with any kind of conviction.
We may well be above $60k within the next few months...
Of course, getting above $60k could happen way more quickly (such as a week or two), but these things tend to need time to play out.. even though a 35% or so rise in BTC price could happen pretty damned quickly.. before any of us even realize it.
Remember October 25, 2019? There was a nearly a 30% rise in the BTC price from $7,400 to $10,200 in something like 12 hours, but then the next month the BTC price corrected back down to below $7k… Of course, the April 1, 2019 price rise of 3.5X from $4,200 to $13,880 took three months to play out… My point is that sometimes the BTC price rises seem to come somewhat out of the blue.. and then they may or may not last when they go up so quickly…
When we are playing with ATH, there have also been other times the BTC price rises and shoots past the ATH.. but then does not correct back down.. and so that remains one of the relatively BIG outstanding matters that we have regarding whether our Lillie fiend has preserved any of its explosive UPpity characteristics from earlier days… I would not rule those out.
Aren't your musings also point out that with about 70% probability, the prior bull run (2018-2021) has ended?
I am not sure where you are getting the 70% because I have not deviated from my idea that we are still in a bull run.. and you know that I usually do not go very far beyond 50%, and so maybe you could say that my 55% odds came down to 51% or 52%.. I am not exactly sure where I stand, but as far as 70% odds on such a tight question, that would not be me making those kinds of assertions.
You need to narrow down the question a bit more if you want me to proclaim something like 70% odds.. I am willing to do it, but I would doubt that you would find any such assertion from me to be very controversial, and you might just say something like, “well duh” if you hear me making that level of confidence in terms something that I expect into the future.
For example: if you look at
my chart of probabilities from 12/16/21.. you will see that at that time, I assigned 70% odds that the BTC price would finish below $120k for this particular run with an assumption that it's most likely that the run would be done by no later than 3rd quarter 2022.. which would mean that I gave 30% odds for the top of the cycle finishing somewhere above $120k.. which are pretty high odds, I suppose.
Oh? I see in that same chart that I had place 71% odds that the top of the cycle would be by the end of the 1st quarter of 2022.. but obviously, I don't believe that right now because it seems that the top is being drug out.. .. so those probabilities have shifted out into a further timeline for sure... We only have 6 weeks left to finish the 1st quarter of 2022.
I just give my opinion at the time.. so you can see that I placed 45% odds that the bullrun had already finished and peaked out with our $69k.. so that would be less than 50% odds... I don't know if my numbers were unrealistic, but that was my assignment of numbers at the time... and I suppose now, I am still in the category of considering that we are still in a bull run, so I would not be assigning any greater than 49% odds to the $69k being our top for this run.
I doubt that anyone can really come at these matters with high levels of conviction, and for sure it makes it risky to solidify the numbers that are likely to be changing, but seems more important to be more solid in preparation of BTC portfolio management and preparing oneself psychologically and financially rather than attempting to play around very much with decently uncertain short-term price probability assignments.
In my opinion, there are ways to set up your BTC portfolio so that you can be correct (or at least psychologically and financially comfortable) almost no matter what... or at least to be psychologically and financially prepared for a pretty broad array of possibilities.
I would add to that that, imho, we are in a mid-long term consolidation before a new bull run would begin in it's earnest.
Whether we we would wick out of the range, i don't know, depends on macro and/or politics.
Wick out...? is a pretty narrow way of describing a situation.. ..... yet you are still being quite vague in terms of what you mean.. but what else is new?
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