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Question: When will BTC get back above $70K:
7/14 - 0 (0%)
7/21 - 1 (0.8%)
7/28 - 11 (8.9%)
8/4 - 16 (12.9%)
8/11 - 8 (6.5%)
8/18 - 6 (4.8%)
8/25 - 8 (6.5%)
After August - 74 (59.7%)
Total Voters: 124

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26488030 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
hisslyness
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February 15, 2022, 10:46:42 PM

#LNMETA

Fucking hell I need to get on Rick to write that AI project for me to automagically adjust fees based on activity.

Managing nodes that connect to you, and then start draining liquidity at default rates are becoming a minor annoyance; the script should be able to start cranking fees as it starts seeing more activity on the channels, but, well, this ranch isn't gonna build itself, and Rick becoming a bee-keeper and wildlife manager is becoming time-consuming, so...

RTL could use so much work on the UI front. Wish I could select a whole bunch of channels, and set the fee rates on 'em in one go, but, it's either Change All Fees to New Defaults, or hand-management of each channel.

I really can't stand it.

It's becoming a job and stress.



Bob, please please please.... Save some routing fees for us!...

on another note, are there any new LN nodes?
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February 15, 2022, 11:01:21 PM


Explanation
JayJuanGee
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February 15, 2022, 11:02:45 PM
Merited by modrobert (1)

@jjg...you got it ass-backwards, as usual.
I was the OP who gave these numbers (46K, 46-52(5)K, above 61K no-man land).
YOU are the follower aka copy-cat.

Oh gawd.. you are pathetic.


Do you have anything more interesting to discuss in regards to your latest theories about BTC price or something a bit more substantive?
What do you think about our current $40k to $46k price range?

How about the so far $32,951 bottom?  Are we going to get another challenge to such $32,951 bottom before we get a challenge to $50k-ish?

Anything else that might be interesting besides your ongoing easy distraction into nonsenses?  Did you buy the dip?  or are you still waiting?


75% of Canada approves of what the Trudeau administration is doing?  God, I hope not.

Most Canadians do not approve of invoking the Emergency Act. Most I've talked to think they went too far.

75% of Canadians think the idiot truckers should go home.

They made their point. Sure they had some public sympathy at the start when it was still a peaceful protest. After they disrupted a major city making thousands of people's lives miserable, then blocked international trade costing billions of dollars, support quickly dwindled.

Once you've gotten the message (or given it), hang up the phone.
____

Don't believe everything you see in the mainstream social media. There are two sides to every story.



https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/covid-19-counter-protest-trucker-protest-1.6349936

How are we going to know the extent to which we are being lied to? and geez if there are rights to assemble to petition your government for redress of grievances, then sure there could be some questions of balance in terms of how much disruption might be allowed, and is the use of trucks something that can be managed.. surely the use of trucks brings some pretty BIG tools (leverage) on the side of the protesters, and we know that acts of violence are frequently exaggerated (so i have my doubts about the truthfulness of those claims, like ModRobert mentioned), though of course, tensions are going to increase sometimes when there are people coming to the grievance (protest) with agendas that are not always too synchronized in terms of what the group might be wanting to get regarding government overreach - which ends up being double-down upon. 

I am not claiming to know the answers and I do value the rights to protest, assemble seek redress of grievances.. but I doubt that it is clear that the protest should just stop because some people don't like it, it's inconvenient, there are negative economic impacts.. even though there could be some value in getting the message out there.. but if they are not receiving anything but heavy backlash from the government (no concessions at all), then the protesters are likely inclined to double down rather than back down when the see the government doubling down and failing /refusing to treat any of their grievances seriously.

I noticed that there are exactly two kinds of people in crypto right now:

1.
Cryptocurrency is the future. I can't wait for my Bitcoin to gain higher value as more people adopt it.


2.


What about the kinds of people who use gobbledy-gook language, and you are not really sure what they are talking about?


I do agree that our current NFT phenomena does have a lot of weirdness within it...
lightfoot
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February 15, 2022, 11:13:12 PM

That's not how revolutions work.

Um. Is this a protest or a revolt? Very different situations with different rules of engagement.

Quote
You don't go home when you are told.

You are fighting to make your home a better place due to the tyrants running the place.

If you are listening to, and doing the will of the tyrants, you are a part of the problem.

Sounds like we're talking about an insurrection. Well, at the moment it's at most moving from a protest to a rat pack/mob. Another 2-3 months and it would be an insurrection. 6 months after that it's a full blown civil war.

So where are we here?
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February 15, 2022, 11:29:44 PM
Merited by JimboToronto (1)

ain't gonna be a revolution over 4-500 trucks parked in Ottawa gimme a break.  plus thats not how you do things in a democracy.  especially not in Canada.  Quebec referendum anyone ?  anyways, they are just mad they can't go to timmies without a mask.  this war talk is really, really retarded.  About as retarded as storming the capitol in the us.

Back to bitcoin, has anyone read the JP morgan piece ?

https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/institutional/insights/market-insights/eye-on-the-market/the-maltese-falcoin/
eXPHorizon
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February 15, 2022, 11:39:41 PM

I believe that the situation in Canada could be handled more delicately and respectfuly. It is the free will of Men and Woman to choose for their own bodys and minds. It is the foundation on which our society rests upon... So their Protest is righteous. But i have to say they could of handled it way better.. lets be honest its went kinda dogmatic


However, I GIVE RESPECT TO CANADA !
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February 15, 2022, 11:41:50 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

They made their point. Sure they had some public sympathy at the start when it was still a peaceful protest. After they disrupted a major city making thousands of people's lives miserable, then blocked international trade costing billions of dollars, support quickly dwindled.

Once you've gotten the message (or given it), hang up the phone.

It's not about a message, it's about sovereign ownership of their bodies. There is no "go home".

Nice tight framing on that picture, by the way. Really shows the crowds and crowds of counter-protesters. That's sarcasm, by the way.
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February 15, 2022, 11:48:00 PM

@JJG...of course, no substantive response, but more name-calling.
We are not in a middle high, pal, in case you did not notice.

I still stand by my own assertion, made a long time ago, that we are in the $30-60K "flat", oscillating within.
Aren't your musings also point out that with about 70% probability, the prior bull run (2018-2021) has ended?
I would add to that that, imho, we are in a mid-long term consolidation before a new bull run would begin in it's earnest.
Whether we we would wick out of the range, i don't know, depends on macro and/or politics.
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February 15, 2022, 11:53:47 PM

ChartBuddy
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February 16, 2022, 12:01:27 AM


Explanation
sirazimuth
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February 16, 2022, 12:18:00 AM
Last edit: February 16, 2022, 01:07:34 AM by sirazimuth

......

Back to the regularly scheduled drama.
...with a little bitcoin talk on the side.

It's why I love this place.

Alright then Buddy?.....

Damnit Buddy, when I'm the sandwich filling, its supposed to go up....
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February 16, 2022, 01:01:22 AM


Explanation
JayJuanGee
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February 16, 2022, 01:02:20 AM

@JJG...of course, no substantive response, but more name-calling.
We are not in a middle high, pal, in case you did not notice.

I did notice the name-calling.... that seems to be your go-to.. and surely easily provoked into such.... I hardly even need to say boo.... and there you go into it.

I still stand by my own assertion, made a long time ago, that we are in the $30-60K "flat", oscillating within.

yeah, but are you sticking with that range for the remainder of the calendar year?  Even though you asserted it, you are not really willing to go there with any kind of conviction.

We may well be above $60k within the next few months...

Of course, getting above $60k could happen way more quickly (such as a week or two), but these things tend to need time to play out.. even though a 35% or so rise in BTC price could happen pretty damned quickly.. before any of us even realize it.

Remember October 25, 2019?  There was a nearly a 30% rise in the BTC price from $7,400 to $10,200 in something like 12 hours, but then the next month the BTC price corrected back down to below $7k… Of course, the April 1, 2019 price rise of 3.5X from $4,200 to $13,880 took three months to play out… My point is that sometimes the BTC price rises seem to come somewhat out of the blue.. and then they may or may not last when they go up so quickly…

When we are playing with ATH, there have also been other times the BTC price rises and shoots past the ATH.. but then does not correct back down.. and so that remains one of the relatively BIG outstanding matters that we have regarding whether our Lillie fiend has preserved any of its explosive UPpity characteristics from earlier days… I would not rule those out.

Aren't your musings also point out that with about 70% probability, the prior bull run (2018-2021) has ended?

I am not sure where you are getting the 70% because I have not deviated from my idea that we are still in a bull run.. and you know that I usually do not go very far beyond 50%, and so maybe you could say that my 55% odds came down to 51% or 52%.. I am not exactly sure where I stand, but as far as 70% odds on such a tight question, that would not be me making those kinds of assertions.

You need to narrow down the question a bit more if you want me to proclaim something like 70% odds.. I am willing to do it, but I would doubt that you would find any such assertion from me to be very controversial, and you might just say something like, “well duh” if you hear me making that level of confidence in terms something that I expect into the future.

For example:  if you look at my chart of probabilities from 12/16/21.. you will see that at that time, I assigned 70% odds that the BTC price would finish below $120k for this particular run with an assumption that it's most likely that the run would be done by no later than 3rd quarter 2022.. which would mean that I gave 30% odds for the top of the cycle finishing somewhere above $120k.. which are pretty high odds, I suppose.

Oh?  I see in that same chart that I had place 71% odds that the top of the cycle would be by the end of the 1st quarter of 2022.. but obviously, I don't believe that right now because it seems that the top is being drug out.. .. so those probabilities have shifted out into a further timeline for sure... We only have 6 weeks left to finish the 1st quarter of 2022. 
I just give my opinion at the time.. so you can see that I placed 45% odds that the bullrun had already finished and peaked out with our $69k.. so that would be less than 50% odds... I don't know if my numbers were unrealistic, but that was my assignment of numbers at the time... and I suppose now, I am still in the category of considering that we are still in a bull run, so I would not be assigning any greater than 49% odds to the $69k being our top for this run. 

I doubt that anyone can really come at these matters with high levels of conviction, and for sure it makes it risky to solidify the numbers that are likely to be changing, but seems more important to be more solid in preparation of BTC portfolio management and preparing oneself psychologically and financially rather than attempting to play around very much with decently uncertain short-term price probability assignments.

In my opinion, there are ways to set up your BTC portfolio so that you can be correct (or at least psychologically and financially comfortable) almost no matter what... or at least to be psychologically and financially prepared for a pretty broad array of possibilities.

I would add to that that, imho, we are in a mid-long term consolidation before a new bull run would begin in it's earnest.
Whether we we would wick out of the range, i don't know, depends on macro and/or politics.

Wick out...? is a pretty narrow way of describing a situation.. ..... yet you are still being quite vague in terms of what you mean.. but what else is new?
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February 16, 2022, 01:20:55 AM
Merited by vapourminer (1)

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February 16, 2022, 01:50:17 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)



feeling being left out?
join in, we are friendlier than the chartbuddy....allegedly.



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February 16, 2022, 01:57:31 AM

....
feeling being left out?

um...no....  I just thought it would be nice to get you two wo bros a room.  Wink

join in, we are friendlier than the chartbuddy....allegedly.
Well idk about that. Me and Buddy are best friends. He always replies to me....
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February 16, 2022, 02:01:21 AM


Explanation
ChartBuddy
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February 16, 2022, 03:01:26 AM


Explanation
JayJuanGee
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February 16, 2022, 03:31:13 AM
Last edit: February 16, 2022, 05:16:31 AM by JayJuanGee
Merited by OutOfMemory (1)



feeling being left out?
join in, we are friendlier than the chartbuddy....allegedly.

Exactly!!!!!
 
We (beyond royal) are way more substantive than CB, too... even if that dweeb has issues (intentionally leaving this part ambiguous... hahahahahhaha)

join in, we are friendlier than the chartbuddy....allegedly.
Well idk about that. Me and Buddy are best friends. He always replies to me....

Get out of here.

#nohomo... it's just an expression


By the way:

@philipma or @poolminor or @cryptotourist or @whoever wants to argue about BTC price following hash and that kind of delusional (and backwardization) nonsense...   I had not seen any discussion about the hory shhhheeeeiiiittt increase in the hashpower in the past couple of days.  We got through more than half of this particular difficulty period and it was starting to look as if the difficulty was going to be negative, even by a couple of percentage points (by the way, only 1 of the last 15 difficulty periods have been negative), and then all of a sudden...... BBBBBAAAAAAAAMMMMMM - the hashrate shoots up like a rocket.. to show that the hashrate is likely going to get something like a 4% increase (we will find out in about a day and a half.. as I type this post).  

Surely some of the less efficient miners are going to get squeezed out of profitabilities with these kinds of sudden increases in hashpower.. and yeah back into ATH hashrate territories for the past three difficulty periods (if this one is included)..

Does not show up as any kind of Holy moly drama on this chart.. but nonetheless, the chart shows that hashrate was going down quite steadily since the beginning of February and then up relatively quickly and surpassing even the top of where is was in early February in the past couple of days.
https://www.blockchain.com/charts/hash-rate


See current pace of this difficulty:
>>>>
Latest Block:   723530  (16 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   104.0660%  (1803 / 1732.55 expected, 70.45 ahead)
Previous Difficulty:   26643185256535.46                            
Current Difficulty:   26690525287405.5                            
Next Difficulty:   between 27766095565711 and 27778732668312
Next Difficulty Change:   between +4.0298% and +4.0771%
Previous Retarget:   February 3, 2022 at 6:32 PM  (+0.1777%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Thursday at 5:24 AM  (in 1d 10h 6m 46s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Thursday at 5:33 AM  (in 1d 10h 15m 34s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 10h 52m 19s and 13d 11h 1m 6s
<<<
https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator


See historical difficulty adjustments:

https://btc.com/stats/diff?_ga=2.166892222.1079250679.1586286038-48233127.1586286038
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February 16, 2022, 04:01:21 AM


Explanation
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