Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[suchmoon]

At some point adjustable rate mortgage people would be majorly screwed.

Does such a thing still exist? With rock-bottom interest rates for the last 10+ years one would have to be extremely special to have an ARM.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[fr4nkthetank]

At some point adjustable rate mortgage people would be majorly screwed.

Does such a thing still exist? With rock-bottom interest rates for the last 10+ years one would have to be extremely special to have an ARM.

In Canada, some people get variable rates....5yr fixed rate ~2.5% now...5 yr variable 1%. if rates go up, it adds to time left to pay until max, then payments go up I think.  People get em because they think they can get out of it for cheap and switch to fixed rate.  Then they also get a private loan to pay for the downpayment when they buy a house....and here I am, not interested in a mortgage...i guess im the fool

[fr4nkthetank]

also

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

Since this all started we have learned anti vaxing was less crazy then it was at first.
We also learned that anti virals work and were suppressed for more than a year.


Hawaii and Vermont are more gay than most states
Hawaii and Vermont have more people taking anti virals than most states
Hawaii and Vermont have great death rates for covid the best of all 50 states

Tell me the last time you heard this on any media of any kind.
These facts are really good info to show that aids anti virals are very good at stopping the disease and also preventing death
why are they not talked about?


My info source is for death rates is here:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

 I listened to a Tales from the Crypt podcast yesterday.. interviewing a 35 year plus doctor (Dr. Woods) regarding various anti-virals seeming to be much more effective than the vaccines that seem to bring questionable benefits at best.. (and we are ONLY learning that there really are not as many benefits way down the road.. which should cause any of us to question why they were lying about supposed 90%+ efficacy of the vaccines.. which surely seems amazing, but it ends up being far from true... I hate being lied to.. but those kinds of numbers did convince a lot of people that vaccines were going to save us blah blah blah), and there does not seem to be anything untruthful in his presentation regarding various benefits and even preventative treatments.. and for seemingly lame reasons, in recent weeks, the Doctor got fired because of his treating patients that way.. and seems like a potentially successful lawsuit against the hospital.. not that they discussed that angle in the Podcast.... and sometimes it is hard to know whether to follow standards of care when many aspects of standards of care are not seeming to be very science-based and they seem to be motivated by other reasons.. which has been the case for other treatments and illnesses too... but seems to be really rearing its ugly head in terms of the way Covid is being used -----

By the way some of the punchline ideas that came out seems to be:

 ivermectin is good (but not the animal variation)

hydrochloriquine is good but not necessarily as good as ivermectin

monoclonal antibodies seem to be good.. even though a bit involved in how to get them

there are some other treatments that can supplement or combined with the above depending on the stage of the patient symptoms or progression of the sickness.......

getting natural immunity tends to be good

rendevesver is not good

getting on a ventilator is not a good sign

vaccines do not seem to help and sometimes can hurt

can/does bitcoin fix any of this? 

Apparently, the owners of the Tales from the Crypt podcast received a two week suspension on YouTube from posting and monetization based upon the content of the above linked podcasts.  They disclosed their suspension punishment at the beginning of today's podcast.  I still have not listened to the rest of today's podcast.. it's a little less than 2 hours.

Just an example of quick deplatforming (even if a warning and temporary) - and shows a lot of fear regarding talking about this kind of information that deviates from current standards of care (that have been politicized and likely not really based on science)...

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

also

Does not seem like anything even close to an appropriate comparison. In other words, NFTs are nothing like bitcoin.. There are a lot of potential complications with them whether we are talking about authenticity or other matters, so in that regard, NFTs are surely a different story... probably you should not have bought up that fad of the day crap in the first place...

Should not be comparing NFTs to bitcoin except that bitcoin is likely the ONLY NFT that matters.. each satoshi is its own unique snowflake.... and confirmed on an actual blockchain that cannot be fucked with.

[Biodom]

At some point adjustable rate mortgage people would be majorly screwed.
However, bitcoin is trading as if it is owned mostly by dumb asses (present company excluded) and not sophisticated investors.

Never forget

"It's the marginal idiot that makes the price"

(John M. Keynes about bitcoin)

brilliant...

[Biodom]

At some point adjustable rate mortgage people would be majorly screwed.

Does such a thing still exist? With rock-bottom interest rates for the last 10+ years one would have to be extremely special to have an ARM.

you are right, now only 2.6% of all mortgages or something similar, but will probably increase as we go to 4-5% on 10 year treasury (2.5-3% first, though).
Not many people would be able to afford 5-7% mortgages after the home price increases US had.
In 2000 we had booming economy and 8.5% 30 year mortgages, but the house prices were a small fraction of today's.
Inflation back then was relatively low, though.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Hueristic]

https://imgur.com/gallery/BwkKTL9

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[hisslyness]

https://imgur.com/gallery/BwkKTL9

Unless they make their way to the top, have an affair with the King, become another Queen, and then can move and kill any which way.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Krubster]

I gave up using LOOP (too expensive) and circular rebalance (too unreliable), and have found that setting default or low fees works as a good "organic" way of tempting transactions to route your way. Once you see activity, and liquidity starting to empty out your way, start cranking your rates.

My strategy of setting stupid low fee's to regain drained liquidity back to my end is proving problematic with popular sites like ln.nicehash - Can't seem to get it more than ~250,000 sats stabilized on my end before 10k sat transactions start wiping it out again back towards empty.

Thanks, that's some great advice. I tried this channel fee strategy yesterday and raised the fees on my drained channels, but I haven't seen any activity since. Although, it seems like my drained channels are like the problematic ones you described (nicehash and bitfinex).

I also tried lnd-rebalance (https://github.com/C-Otto/rebalance-lnd) yesterday. Definitely a better option for circular rebalance than e.g. RTL. Basically, what I does is, it will only rebalance if the cost is less than the future profits, and it will automatically keep searching for a route until it find one that is. E.g. if I want to rebalance 500k sats to a channel with 200 ppm, my future profit for that is 100 sats (500k*200ppm). Then it will only rebalance if it finds a route that cost less than 100 sats to do so.
 
Oh well, first of all I need to open more channels and also get some more inbound liquidity. I currently only have 6 channels with a total of 18M sendable and 12M receivable sats. Time to send some more sats to my node.

EDIT: Rebooted after adjusting the following in my lnd.conf

minchansize=5000000
bitcoin.basefee=1000
bitcoin.feerate=100
bitcoin.timelockdelta=18

I did a somewhat pricey mistake yesterday. My default rate for new channels are 1/1. I opened a 5M channel to bfx and left home shortly after, while the channel was still pending. Later when I came home the channel was open and completely drained, but I had only gained like 50 sats for all that routing.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation