@JJG
Many of us are in a position now where financially we are very comfortable.
Of course you likely appreciate that my various comments about BTC price expectations and possible ways to individually manage BTC holdings is not directly aimed at any particular kind of BTC holder, even though I understand that there are quite a few of the longer term WO participants who have crossed over into considerable financial freedom, have been there for a while or are on the cusp of moving over into such status.
For sure, there are likely quite a few of us who could have cashed out large portions of our BTC portfolio in the sub $10k price arena and still been in a position in order to NOT have to worry about finances for the remainder of our lives - but many of us continue to choose to retain higher portions of our HODLings in BTC because we have either sufficiently diversified into other assets or that we may well not feel that there is any need to diversify into other assets...
Of course, there can always be some second-guessing regarding the BTC portfolio management if a lot of value is held in BTC and the value drops 30%, 50% or even greater amounts - but many of us have already been there several times, so maybe we might sometimes feel some levels of regrets for perhaps not taking out some additional portfolio insurance by cashing out a bit more at higher BTC prices, but at the same time, there might be a sufficient level of confidence that the cashing out timeline is far enough into the future, that there are not too many fears about even potential worser -case scenarios that may well require waiting a few more years to get back above $69k again.
For sure, I attempt to address a variety of these kinds of variations in WO member reservations and situations.. including of course, that we are always going to have some members who are going through way earlier stage adoption... so it does not really seem fair to ignore them and to create the appearance that older members are dumping upon newer members - or can no longer relate to the stresses of those earliest years of BTC accumulation emphasis.
On a personal level, it seems that I had my most intense BTC accumulation phase during late 2013 and most of 2014... but for some reason, I could not really stop myself from having quite a bit of continued BTC accumulation through 2016 and maybe even into parts of 2017... I did kind of get pushed back into some lower levels of accumulation even in early to mid 2017 to attempt to make up for some mistakes that I made early in the year.. but you know really.. the movement from accumulation to maintenance to liquidation has been gradual.. and so the way that I have structured my own BTC portfolio management has contributed to my NOT considering my own location/stage in absolute categorical terms.. even though there had been quite a bit of emphasis on maintenance that goes back to as far as late 2014 - even though psychologically, I could not really stop myself from acting upon continued financial preparations that kept me accumulating - even though I did not really need to.
Of course, your particulars vary enough from my own and we can see that some of our choices about how to talk about portfolio management does reflect aspects of our own particular circumstances... so from your various descriptions in the past, I already recognize that it is quite likely that you achieved a kind of 2-3x cushion before you even started to make any kind of decently-sized moves to cash out some chosen portion of your BTC portfolio.. and so some of that ended up resulting in a kind of overallocation that was way more than you had really ever though that you were going to end up investing into BTC, so you experience some relieved as fuck feelings when you are able to cash out decent amounts of that (even though it is not even a large overall amount of your total holdings) so in some sense, you were not even attached to keeping that value in BTC...
And, surely there is nothing wrong with that whole approach, even though it is a bit different from my own approach - but of course, I started from a different position from you too in terms of quite a few of our particulars... and sometimes it can be difficult to really appreciate if one approach pays off better than another approach in objective terms, because the calculation is not completely based on objective considerations.
Maybe I am being a bit of a hypocrite here, too? You know maybe I should not give any excuses to some folks who I really had been suggesting to them that they should have some kind of higher level of allocation into BTC because anything like 1% to 10% (in 2014, 2015, 2016) would have put them in a really great position right now (maybe even blowing my own BTC portfolio management performance away... perhaps, perhaps, perhaps), but the difference between you and me is not likely as great as the difference between me and the people who I had been trying to convince to get off of zero because both you and I ended up both making decent-sized allocations to BTC, and even though we managed our portfolios differently, each of us are worlds apart from either the the person who did not allocate into BTC and/or the person who was somewhat whimpy in his/her bitcoin allocation.
So another thing in common between you and me is that neither of us have been whimpy in our BTC allocation and/or our BTC portfolio management and even though each of us have had points of fear, uncertainty and even second guessing regarding if there might be some better ways to manage our holdings.. overall both you and I have errored on the side of mostly holding.. which has made a lot of commonality between us (even if we started from different places and our individual circumstances are different) and we have also considerably distinguished our lil selfies from the no coiner... but we have even considerably distinguished ourselves from the whimpy investors too....
Maybe some of those whimpy BTC investors ended up not even going 1% into bitcoin (or at least they were not even consistent enough), and they might have been 10x more wealthy than us in 2014, 2015, 2016, but we know that BTC is still at least 40x up from those times, so even someone who might have been 10x more wealthy than us in 2014, 2015, 2016, they have difficulties keeping up even if their wealth has grown too.. but not likely grown as much as bitcoin.... ... maybe they had some really good performance of some real estate and businesses that may have gotten them up 2x.. or even 4x.. but then if they went up 4x.. instead of being 10x in front of us.. we are similar levels of wealth.. even if the bitcoin portion does seem like magical internet money.. hahahahahahaha.. but it should be more liquid than real estate or owning some businesses that might have done well in that same 6-8 year timeframe.
I am not trying to be emotional about this or even to compete with others because sometimes there might not be significantly BIG compare contrast between people, but sometimes the objective differences do end up being considerable.. especially that there has been so much flexibility in how to invest in BTC over the years, as compared to even some of the difficulties that might exist in picking which stocks to hold or how to manage a business or some real estate that might not be completely trouble free either...even if it has advantages of being able to live and enjoy it.. and not going to blame anyone from liquidating some of their BTC in order to experience some of those kinds of luxuries, too.
I’m not too bothered if we go up or down in the short term. I have buy orders in at $31,800 & $28,000. If they hit I will buy back a large % of the coins I sold (25% of my stash) at a 50% discount. We all know where bitcoin is going medium to long term so let’s all relax.
For sure, there can be quite a bit of extra comfort that comes from having had gotten ahead of the price, so in that sense you have set up price points that are comfortable for you... and then to really feel comfortable there should be a bit of detachment to whether they hit or they do not hit.. so for example, one of the BIG tests can be if the BTC price ends up going to "almost" your buy price point, and then it reverses.. that can be one of the most frustrating of things but it is also a pretty decent test regarding your level of establishing your orders in a kind of "don't give a shitness" way.
In that regard, the psychology to be happy with any of these:
1) "if they fill they fill"
2) "if they don't they don't" and
3) "I don't give too many shits, either way about 1 or 2."
That can be a kind of test regarding whether your set levels are sufficiently good enough for you... no one else to satisfy, right? just you, right?
I actually think those orders will get hit you know.
Could be.
Hard to know with any level of certainty...
And, of course, you will be happy any way, right?
right?
right?
hahahahaha I could not resist.You may well know that I hardly have any high levels of confidence regarding short term BTC price directions, and I hardly would set up my own portfolio management out of very high levels of certainty except for just expecting that in the long run (or that any time in the future), the odds are pretty good that in 4 years that the BTC price will be higher than it is today... beyond that? Maybe just staying above the 208-week moving average is a good thing....
By the way, I had seen a decent new graph that discusses the 100-week moving average as a bottom and then compares it to a top that is 5x the 100-week moving average.
Look at this page:
https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/bitcoin-investor-tool/I am thinking that I am going to have to incorporate that for my 208-week moving average.. so the 208-week moving average will be the bottom (which is currently at about $20k) and then instead of 5x, I think 10x the 208-week moving average would be good top.... (or maybe a slightly smaller than 10x multiple?), so that expectations of the bottom and the top largely falls within such range... .. of course, even when we get to 5x or 6x of the 208-week moving average, we can become quite concerned that we are getting frothy.. but we know that there have also been times that we have reached true blow off tops that actually do end up exceeding 10x of the 208 week moving average.
Can look at historical renditions of the 200-week moving averages as compared with the BTC spot price here.
https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/200-week-moving-average-heatmap/I’ve thought for some time that $69,000 was the top. I think we are entering a bear market.
Could be.
Again. Hard to know with any level of certainty...
Of course, a bit more whimpy of a run, but surely not horribly bad. In 2013 we had a bit over 116x if you consider $1,163 as the top and measure something like $10 as the base (from early 2013), even though reasonable arguments could be made to move the jumping off base down further than $10 (which would likely get the base in the $2-ish territory.. but I am not very comfortable with $2 as a base mostly because of the considerable lacking of maturity of the BTC market in those pre-2013 times).
I am thinking that 2017 was around 78x getting to a high of $19,666, so that is using $250 as the base (from mid-2015).
Personally I believe that even though we had some muddiness through the whole 2019-2021 period (what else is new?), right around $4,200 (from April 2019) would be a fair base for our so far 2021 UPpity run to $69k.. which ends up coming out as a 16.4x price run... which yeah for sure is way wimpier that previous runs.. but still not horribly bad either.. including my general agreement with some of you subsequent comments that smaller run up tops likely causes way less likelihood that anything close to as BIG of a crash is coming in terms of either time or quantity of DOWNity....
I am way less convinced that we have enough data to have confidence that we have entered into a bear market.. even though the four-year presumptions are being screwed with in decently solid ways.. but why not.. why not screw with the 4-year presumptions if you are able to get away with it and if you have enough incentive to do it.. but does not mean that you (referring to bearwhales here) are going to end up getting your way and stopping the UPpity inclinations that are somewhat built into this likely to be greatest wealth transfer that man has ever witnessed.
Yeah.. maybe you (not referring to you specifically LFC) can get your way in the short run, but the longer that you manipulate down.. the greater potentiality for an UPward explosion, too...
Maybe we have entered a bear?
Maybe?
I would not bet too much on that.. and for sure, there is some advantages to getting ahead of it.. even though I do not feel comfortable playing those kinds of games with my BTC holdings.
As we didn’t get a crazy blow off top though, I don’t think we will get a terrifying 80% crash from $69,000. I’m thinking maybe the absolute bottom & worse case scenario will hit within the next 12-18 months at $23,000 or something like that. We won’t go below $20,000 imo.
Could be..
Those are not really unrealistic potential bottoms.. .. and there are also decent probabilities, that we won't even get below our current local bottom of $32,951.. I am only giving that about a 55% odds at most.. and of course, if the current local bottom breaks then the odds for further down goes up.. but I think that if we get above $46k for a day (which who knows?) then the odds get back to just over 50% maybe 51% that $32,951 bottom is in....
we will see... hard to really know, and in some sense, you are starting to side with the thought so Raja_MBZ, and potentially having some beliefs that the 200-week moving average is going to end up getting met (potentially) and maybe even wick-breached.. with the 200-week moving average currently at $20k, it is likely to be over $23k within 2-3 months.. maybe by May-ish?
Any way like I said, short term who cares.
People care.. even though there are surely ways to set up your portfolio in order to NOT care as much as you would if you had not prepared.. so cannot fault anyone for making those kinds of preparations... part of the reason that I frequently get criticized for keeping some Buy orders open that go down as low as the 200-week moving average.
We are going to $100,000+ after the next halving. We’ll probably hit something euphoric like $250,000 in 2025 at the peak of the next bull cycle.
Those seem like pretty reasonable and relatively conservative numbers.
(The above is all assuming that 4 year cycles are still in play. If not then who the hell knows).
Of course, 4-year cycles are still in play. They have not even been negated by current BTC price performance.., even though some adjustments are likely in need of being made in order to account for some of the recent BTC price dynamics.. but we cannot necessarily put too high of values into thinking that we know how the pattern might play out.. even if we have some decent ideas regarding which kinds of scenarios are more likely than others... and we do not even have to agree on which scenarios or the specifics that we believe to be more likely than others... or what probabilities that we might personally attempt to assign to various price points... or the timeline upon reaching them.
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