Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[xhomerx10]

guys, your poll doesn't fit the reality... we won't see prices like this in 2022...  

I think it fits reality, even if Bitcoin doesn't actually change in value when traded for goods/services (seriously doubt this due to adoption, but bear with me). For example, you need roughly 12 BTC to buy a Lambo now, at the end of the year, maybe it will still be 12 BTC for a Lambo, but the poll still fits. Can you guess what happened in this example?

in that case.. 50.000 should be altered to <50.000 and the poll works for me ;-)

The correct answer for the example is inflation. If you pay USD $3.75 now for a gallon of milk, and USD $4.70 for a gallon of milk at the end of the year, the BTC price could potentially move from $40k to $50k during this time without actually changing value in relation to milk.

 What if you paid USD $3.75 for a US gallon of milk and inadvertently picked up an imperial gallon of milk for USD $4.70 at the end of the year? 

[modrobert]

guys, your poll doesn't fit the reality... we won't see prices like this in 2022...  

I think it fits reality, even if Bitcoin doesn't actually change in value when traded for goods/services (seriously doubt this due to adoption, but bear with me). For example, you need roughly 12 BTC to buy a Lambo now, at the end of the year, maybe it will still be 12 BTC for a Lambo, but the poll still fits. Can you guess what happened in this example?

in that case.. 50.000 should be altered to <50.000 and the poll works for me ;-)

The correct answer for the example is inflation. If you pay USD $3.75 now for a gallon of milk, and USD $4.70 for a gallon of milk at the end of the year, the BTC price could potentially move from $40k to $50k during this time without actually changing value in relation to milk.

 What if you paid USD $3.75 for a US gallon of milk and inadvertently picked up an imperial gallon of milk for USD $4.70 at the end of the year? 

That would be great, only 5% inflation, almost at propaganda levels.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Copetech]

*Snip*

 What if you paid USD $3.75 for a US gallon of milk and inadvertently picked up an imperial gallon of milk for USD $4.70 at the end of the year?  

Dude... Milk ain't supposed to be kept that long! When it start getting chunky & chewy, you really should throw it out, and maybe focus on smaller carton sizes. Maybe try a pint for $2.89?

[savetherainforest]

So I'm guessing we'll see more false flag type events happening in Ukraine this weekend and every one of them will drop the price lower. From that we’ll probably see 35k before Monday, but, when next week comes and then goes not only will there not be a Russian invasion but all the FUD will have shifted somewhere else to ensure that our leaders don't look so retarded with all the war mongering rhetoric.

At what price will BTC be at then I wonder, back above 40k? or still in the 30s? because for some retarded reason we don’t get the bounce but the other assets do? Those marginal sellers truly are idiots, I’m not upset that these short time frame folk get punished so regularly.

HODL strong and continue to DCA.

Russia invading Ukraine == Bullish!

Russia defending its regions within Ukraine according to the Minsk agreement against Neo-Nazis and ISIS would be a more accurate description.

The problem is that you don't understand DECENTRALISATION. It is pointless to pertain control over almost anything. Bacelona/Catalonia will aim independence again. The same goes for all the other regions, like those in Italy (3-4 regions at least), then Scotland and many more. Turkey will be split in a million pieces. Russia will be scrambled in a trillion billion pieces. China. All of them.

The fact that I see this and you don't. Should make you think that we are on a forum of ppl that see into the future. As many have seen BTCiTcoin since 2014+, or earlier.   

[JimboToronto]

Is there a house of lords in Canada? And if so, who sits in it.

No. There is a senate whose members are appointed for life by parliament.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[modrobert]

So I'm guessing we'll see more false flag type events happening in Ukraine this weekend and every one of them will drop the price lower. From that we’ll probably see 35k before Monday, but, when next week comes and then goes not only will there not be a Russian invasion but all the FUD will have shifted somewhere else to ensure that our leaders don't look so retarded with all the war mongering rhetoric.

At what price will BTC be at then I wonder, back above 40k? or still in the 30s? because for some retarded reason we don’t get the bounce but the other assets do? Those marginal sellers truly are idiots, I’m not upset that these short time frame folk get punished so regularly.

HODL strong and continue to DCA.

Russia invading Ukraine == Bullish!

Russia defending its regions within Ukraine according to the Minsk agreement against Neo-Nazis and ISIS would be a more accurate description.

The problem is that you don't understand DECENTRALISATION. It is pointless to pertain control over almost anything. Bacelona/Catalonia will aim independence again. The same goes for all the other regions, like those in Italy (3-4 regions at least), then Scotland and many more. Turkey will be split in a million pieces. Russia will be scrambled in a trillion billion pieces. China. All of them.

The fact that I see this and you don't. Should make you think that we are on a forum of ppl that see into the future. As many have seen BTCiTcoin since 2014+, or earlier.   

Interesting, so with that logic the United States (US) will be separated into its original states eventually?

I have a different idea of the future, based on corporations taking over and slowly making countries irrelevant as a concept. Cultures will remain in each region, wars will be fought between corporations, market competition and through private armies. For example; Google alliance sending drones to some coordinates in former Europe along with mercenaries and Gazprom retaliates to protect their pipelines.

We live in the era of corporate lobbyism pushing out the last remnants of democracy.

[d_eddie]

BTW, I'm still waiting for the necessary gear. Due in early March, they say.
F*** supply chain disruptions!

Should be able to run it on a regular PC or Laptop, right? I don't think an RPi is a requirement.

You can certainly run it that way.  BUT most of the node in a box distros are based on a RPi platform.  So it will be a little more DYI I think... I think the next best thing would be one of the docker containers... not sure what's current in that regard.

I have run Bitcoin servers on Old desktops, old laptops, rack servers, VPS instances, Amazon VPSes, RPis, and even a Celeron based QNAP NAS via docker containers.

The RPi nodes are BY FAR the best choice for a home setup.  They are low power, and easy to tuck somewhere next to your hub and always turned on. I think they are by far the best choice as long as you do not intend to do heavy duty business on them, in which case, if no $$$ was an object rack servers in a cage at some well endowed server warehouse... living in Dallas that would be easy...  But I think even if I wanted to run a little commerce I could get pretty far using the Raspiblitz for the node and the BTCPay server before needing to upgrade.

Exactly. The Umbrel site doesn't recommend going the straight linux+docker route. Their advice is to get a Raspberry Pi, and that's what I've chosen to do, since I'd like to tinker with a working LN node, rather than with a linux system trying to set up a working LN node. My Bitcoin Core node is already running on a plain desktop machine under a current Ubuntu build. I don't want to run the two nodes on the same server. Decentralization at all levels! Of course they will be allowed to talk to each other as they deem fit.

I have been itching to build a Seed Signer and am also super sad that the Pi Zero W models seem to be impossible to get.   https://seedsigner.com/

F*** supply chain disruptions.

[serveria.com]

Witnessing lil pump. It's great we can still feel the upwards pressure...fuck stocks and fuck war - BTC doesn't give a shit! 

[d_eddie]

#LNMETA

Watching the 'perfectly-balanced' script running on 100 channels is kinda wild (it will take several hours to run)

Playing with the "Lightning Shell" Umbrel package, that contains a couple good tools for rebalancing channels; the other script being 'rebalance-lnd'

Back to it. Building out some more "outer" routes, slowly.

EDIT: This is gonna cost me a shit-tonne in fees. LOL @ Science!
EDIT2: Holy shit. I'm fully committed to going absolute retard on this 'perfectly-balanced' script just donkey-kicking my balls on fees (my own doing setting high ppm limit for the script). disgonbgud.gif. More tomorrow. Busy day at the ranch tomorrow morning and afternoon.

Thanks for the update, Bob. Keep'em coming! I'm following you and cAPS and the others, learning-without-doing (inasmuch as it makes any sense).

And the #LNMETA tag is very good for searching.

[savetherainforest]

So I'm guessing we'll see more false flag type events happening in Ukraine this weekend and every one of them will drop the price lower. From that we’ll probably see 35k before Monday, but, when next week comes and then goes not only will there not be a Russian invasion but all the FUD will have shifted somewhere else to ensure that our leaders don't look so retarded with all the war mongering rhetoric.

At what price will BTC be at then I wonder, back above 40k? or still in the 30s? because for some retarded reason we don’t get the bounce but the other assets do? Those marginal sellers truly are idiots, I’m not upset that these short time frame folk get punished so regularly.

HODL strong and continue to DCA.

Russia invading Ukraine == Bullish!

Russia defending its regions within Ukraine according to the Minsk agreement against Neo-Nazis and ISIS would be a more accurate description.

The problem is that you don't understand DECENTRALISATION. It is pointless to pertain control over almost anything. Bacelona/Catalonia will aim independence again. The same goes for all the other regions, like those in Italy (3-4 regions at least), then Scotland and many more. Turkey will be split in a million pieces. Russia will be scrambled in a trillion billion pieces. China. All of them.

The fact that I see this and you don't. Should make you think that we are on a forum of ppl that see into the future. As many have seen BTCiTcoin since 2014+, or earlier.   

Interesting, so with that logic the United States (US) will be separated into its original states eventually?

I have a different idea of the future, based on corporations taking over and slowly making countries irrelevant as a concept. Cultures will remain in each region, wars will be fought between corporations, market competition and through private armies. For example; Google alliance sending drones to some coordinates in former Europe along with mercenaries and Gazprom retaliates to protect their pipelines.

We live in the era of corporate lobbyism pushing out the last remnants of democracy.

Yeah and no. US probably will be divided at county levels.

And no, no wars, because there will be some kind of NATO that each county will agree upon and they will not give up on the concept, even if it comes at some kind of taxation cost.

Corporations, dunno, that feels a bit more complicated, but no major gas pipeline in the future. Everything and everyone will be with their windmill and their roof solar panel system.   

[xhomerx10]

*Snip*

 What if you paid USD $3.75 for a US gallon of milk and inadvertently picked up an imperial gallon of milk for USD $4.70 at the end of the year?  

Dude... Milk ain't supposed to be kept that long! When it start getting chunky & chewy, you really should throw it out, and maybe focus on smaller carton sizes. Maybe try a pint for $2.89?

 We go through 8 liters (2.11 US or 1.76 imperial gallons) a week - it doesn't last long in this house!

[cAPSLOCK]

#LNMETA

Watching the 'perfectly-balanced' script running on 100 channels is kinda wild (it will take several hours to run)

Playing with the "Lightning Shell" Umbrel package, that contains a couple good tools for rebalancing channels; the other script being 'rebalance-lnd'

Back to it. Building out some more "outer" routes, slowly.

EDIT: This is gonna cost me a shit-tonne in fees. LOL @ Science!
EDIT2: Holy shit. I'm fully committed to going absolute retard on this 'perfectly-balanced' script just donkey-kicking my balls on fees (my own doing setting high ppm limit for the script). disgonbgud.gif. More tomorrow. Busy day at the ranch tomorrow morning and afternoon.

I have (had?) 15mm sats of badly balanced channels with you.  I would not mind kicking in the sats to balance them.

But one question.  Should we strategize fees to keep them from going all one direction?  I think I just had fees set low and they all slid one way, and MOSTLY stayed there (though I do sort of see them slosh back and forth a little, I think)

Anyway, let me know if you want to coordinate fees.  This is an advantage of being able to communicate with a channel partner.  And for what it's worth, I don't mind them just being "imperfect" either...  I sort of burned out on channel balancing.

[jojo69]

I have a different idea of the future, based on corporations taking over and slowly making countries irrelevant as a concept. Cultures will remain in each region, wars will be fought between corporations, market competition and through private armies. For example; Google alliance sending drones to some coordinates in former Europe along with mercenaries and Gazprom retaliates to protect their pipelines.

We live in the era of corporate lobbyism pushing out the last remnants of democracy.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Biodom]

Regarding the idea of countries splitting into smaller municipalities..the trend is certainly in that direction.
Whether it would be formalized as depicted in "Snow Crash" or not remains to be seen.

I read an interesting article about how people are moving to stay with populations that are 'more like them'.
I find it fascinating in a bad way and indicating that people are not pursued by new ideas, instead, they cling to the old ones that they heard mostly from MSM.
Then, they make decisions to reinforce their current ideology even more.

IMho, something is broken, and it seems that civil society is falling apart, at least at the margins.
Remember that after the Roman empire there was a long period (on the West) where everything was fractured.
As Petrarch wrote: "My fate is to live among varied and confusing storms. But for you perhaps, if as I hope and wish you will live long after me, there will follow a better age. This sleep of forgetfulness will not last forever. When the darkness has been dispersed, our descendants can come again in the former pure radiance."

I don't know about pure radiance, but from here 90ies look pretty good, warts and all.

[d_eddie]

So I'm guessing we'll see more false flag type events happening in Ukraine this weekend and every one of them will drop the price lower. From that we’ll probably see 35k before Monday, but, when next week comes and then goes not only will there not be a Russian invasion but all the FUD will have shifted somewhere else to ensure that our leaders don't look so retarded with all the war mongering rhetoric.

I'm not so sure we're going down (a bit) because of the Russia-Ukraine crisis. Anyhow: Russia embraces BTC - price goes up, Ukraine embraces BTC - price goes down. Funny shit.  

It seems to me like the news and the price are not tightly correlated. The news always provide an excuse to dump, more rarely a reason to explain the pumps. Yet both happen. Price discovery, whale fuckery etc. Meanwhile, HODL.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Torque]

Not only is Bitcoin NOT fungible it is ABSOLUTELY NOT fungible from a pure mathematical aspect.  EVERY satoshi has a pedigree.  You can trace it's origin all the way to the coinbase it was initially realized in.  And you can see the trail of addresses it is passed through to wherever it currently rests.

Not really. When you combine inputs you make the source indeterminate. Coins may taint coins they're mixed with if you want to take that view but that's something different.

Can you expound on this?

If I have a banned address and a good address and I combine inputs then won't my good address get linked to my bad address and chain analysis companies assume if you have the keys to combine you own both?

I'd hate to see someone burn a second address because this was misunderstood.

Potentially. That's the "tainting" I was talking about. Though there may be plausible deniability there in some cases and I don't know how LN plays into things (when it's not driving its node operators nutty).

I was just objecting to the "every Satoshi can be traced" which is just not factual. It's a bit nitpicky but I think important enough to bring up. Sometimes it's worth reminding ourselves that Bitcoin is a ledger and bitcoins are an abstraction that don't really exist.

Yes.  That bolded part.  And Lioghtning adds another whole dimension of abstraction.  I wonder how lightning over Liquid might work.  That could be a very private setup.  You peg in, and no one can even see you open a channel really...  it would be like a back hole inside a black hole.  "Cept they aren't really black... just shades of grey.

I need a drink.

I'm not sure I understand what all the fuss is about Bitcoin or any other crypto blockchain having complete privacy of transactions.

1. Any goods you purchase with bitcoin have to travel to your location via mail or truck, i.e., goods that can be tracked easily by govt or alphabet gang. Easily.

2. Any services you purchase with bitcoin can also be tracked by the establishment, and can be shut down/off. Easily.

3. Any bitcoin you trade for fiat will have to end up in one of your approved KYC/AML bank accounts, which is also tracked by govt/banking and can be monitored or closed. Easily.

The only thing that complete privacy would give you is maybe being able to cross borders with your bitcoin. But then try to purchase something or convert it there, and alarms go off for #1-3 above and you're being tracked in the new country once again.

Bottom line:
So even though a crypto/blockchain might have private transactions built in, it doesn't mean it affords you any real world privacy or non-traceability should you chose to actually do something with it.

Attempting the blacklisting of addresses is messy and fraught with issues, as Richy_T discussed. But having a traceable blockchain could be seen as a feature not a bug, and is probably why Bitcoin has not been banned outright by most governments as well as embraced by HNW investors and corporations.

I feel like everything I typed is the obvious elephant in the room that Bitcoiners/cryptoiners refuse to acknowledge. It's a kind of delusion or cognitive dissonance around Bitcoin that few seem to grasp.

It seems to me like the news and the price are not tightly correlated. The news always provide an excuse to dump, more rarely a reason to explain the pumps. Yet both happen. Price discovery, whale fuckery etc. Meanwhile, HODL.

This shit will go on until March. Then it will turn around. HODL.