Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[rpietila]

a more liquid market will not require hoarders.  but liquidity will not be self-supporting until the market value is much higher.  meanwhile, it is just like hdbuck's little beetle.  we need more hoarding in order for the market value to reach a level where the usability as currency is improved.  more market value motivates entrepreneurs, motivates awareness, motivates participating in the economy.

Because hoarders participate in this most valuable service to the community, they deserve the reward. If you are jealous, how about joining us here and now at a reasonable price of $0.82 per share?*


*1 share = all bitcoins existing today divided equally to all people = 1.64mBTC

[Peter R]

Reserve demand can only hold up for so long.

This is true.  Reserve demand for gold has only held up for several thousands of years.  Our high-technology and globally-interconnected economy appears to now be shifting reserve demand to digital assets: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=68655.0

[magicmexican]

huobi with sudden dump breaking 3000 again

[ChrisML]

STAHP DUMPING YOU FOOLS! Y U DO DIS?!

[seleme]

Just don't make bold statements or you could finish like this guy 

http://gawker.com/watch-a-bitcoin-booster-literally-eat-his-hat-1552837998

[JorgeStolfi]

SecondMarket's  Bitcoin Investment Trust (BIT) apparently owns now a little less than 100,000 BTC:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=337486.0
They had promised that liquidity would start "no later than march 2014", now changed to "in April 2014".  I take that to mean that some investors would be allowed to redeem their shares at the current nominal share price (the NAV in that table).

Apparently some 20,000-30,000 of the BTC they hold (not counting the "seed" 17,800 BTC) correspond to shares bought by investors between September and early November of 2013, when the BTC price was well below 530 USD, and hence the BIT share price was well below the current 53 USD.  Therefore, some of those investors may want to liquidate now to get their profits.  (There is no open market for their shares yet, although one has been promised for the end of the year.)

Almost all of the other BIT investors bought their shares for much more than 50 USD each, when BTC was in the 600--1000 USD range.  Some of them may be upset about the loss of value and may be impatiently waiting for a chace to get out.

In both cases the BIT would have to sell the corresponding coins to get the cash to pay the investor.   Will that mean several thousand BTC being dumped "soon" into the exchanges?

According to that table, new investments in BIT seem to have occurred at times when the BTC price was rising, even if momentarily.

[Zapffe]

Reserve demand can only hold up for so long.

This is true.  Reserve demand for gold has only held up for several thousands of years.  Our high-technology and globally-interconnected economy appears to now be shifting reserve demand to digital assets: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=68655.0

Please let's not compare something that isn't replaceable to something that is replaceable. When people start telling that Bitcoins success is guaranteed by the success of gold, then is the time when serious investors skip because of excessive cult behavior.

[cbutters]

Can we decouple from china yet?

[JayJuanGee]

Anyone that's been around bitcoin for a while has seen this before, investors are patiently sitting on the sidelines waiting for the bears to run out. Anything other than that would be a poor strategy as bitcoin has a good history of repeating patterns, check the end of the fall from the rise in April

EDIT: August 2012 is probably a little closer to the current situation, not much in the difference though.

I am more or less in agreement with you; however, how do we know that they are waiting exactly.. b/c we cannot see money on the exchanges.. and then how fast can they get their money into BTC, if their money is NOT on the exchanges?

[infofront]

i think there is a about 65% chance to see 540-560 in the next ~8-10 hours

There's a better chance we'll see $460.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[aminorex]

Reserve demand can only hold up for so long, and we can see this from the price movement of the previous months.

I'm probably atypical in that my reserve demand is not sensitive to downward price movements. But because of its volatility, bitcoin does tend to select for investors who have asymmetric utility functions.

[JorgeStolfi]

The "rumor" did apparently make it to CCTV, the main state TV media in China:
http://jingji.cntv.cn/2014/03/28/ARTI1395963853109425.shtml
However I can't quite tell through Google Translate how much weight they give to the report.
 

[JayJuanGee]

I'm so glad this little breakout is happening. phew. now it might hold relatively still so I can enjoy my weekend before the next drop. I hope.

You've gone from a good poster(postin bullish stuff) to Fonzie/Mah(postin bearish/critical stuff) status in a short period of time. Welcome to the ignored group.

FTFY

You will be shunned from the cult if you don't cheer along mindlessly! I myself have discovered that it's more dignified here to be the controversial figure who doesn't fit in very well. Because those who are weak spirited and easy to manipulate, seem to fit in best. It's like that with every other cult.

I would NOT call affiliates in this group a cult... that's just baloney talk... some people agree with others and some people substantiate what they say..and some people follow easily... there is a mixture herein.. also there is a mixture of bears and bulls and some back up their statements better than others..   Does NOT seem to rise to the level of any cult. in my thinking...   

[aminorex]

Please let's not compare something that isn't replaceable to something that is replaceable. When people start telling that Bitcoins success is guaranteed by the success of gold, then is the time when serious investors skip because of excessive cult behavior.

Bitcoin has many of the characteristics which give gold its reserve utility.  In fact, bitcoin price movements have tended to correlate with gold more so than with other investments.  Certainly bitcoin is much more secure against counterparty failure than are any non-physical claims on gold, and it is precisely security against counterparty failure that gives physical gold it's principal distinction.

Sneering at the facts does not change them.  Nor does it make people who are worth convincing esteem the facts less highly.

[Zapffe]

Ok, I'll leave you guys with your high hopes of moons and trains. I'll have to go and when I'll return, then this username is probably banned already because of the cries of rpietila. But see you all later under a new name.

[aminorex]

Regarding 2013 taxes I think there is a strong case that BTC has no record requirements for that year.  In order to satisfy a reporting requirement, you must have records adequate to the requirement.  For an established requirement, as e.g. the 2014 tax year in the U.S., one can prudently collect such records.  For a past year, it is not possible.  If you already filed, new rulings can have no impact, because that would be ex post facto law and hence unconstitutional.  If you have yet to file, then you need only report on a good-faith best-effort basis to satisfy the requirements.  I am not a lawyer.

[JayJuanGee]

the china news is made up FUD FUD FUD

Until it is known whether the bank ban is true or false, "Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt" is what a sensible trader should feel. 

Yeah... we need to hear one way or another... which i am inclined to think that it is NOT true... maybe some restrictions.. but total ban.. seems very unlikely

[cbutters]

I really hope that that is the very last 500 defense I have to watch..... ever again.

[oda.krell]

There has to be a counterbalance to all the cultish posts of the always-bullish people who think that prices are always going straight to the moon tomorrow regardless of any and all TA and that every unfavorable event is always made up.

It was us cultists who kept this project alive when it dropped from $32 to $3 and stayed there for a year. The fraction of investors like me who will willingly go down with the ship are the support base that gives BTC what some call "intrinsic" value. Without us, this really would be a Ponzi Scheme. Contributing to positive change in the world is just as important as ROI.

You know what? I give you that. I think it was Rampion who put it as something like "the hardcore (cultists) provide the base value, the traders/speculators add the volatility/spikes".

So, yes, those of you who are willing to go down with the ship, I pay my respect to you...

But this is the fucking speculation subforum. And, as you would expect by the name of it, speculators are not, by and large, interested in going down with the ship. And that's what pisses me off: not that the "cultists" are sitting this bear market out, but that they're shouting down those who discuss how to profit from the market conditions.