Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[chessnut]

I got a good feeling about this.

Yeah...bugger all that EW nonsense...fall back on wishful thinking

LOL im not falling back on anything. it's all playing out fine.

ya know, elliot wave analysis has fundamental explanation, it's not witch craft. It's not all about charts either, an EW analyst is also fundamentally involved, or is not an EW analyst.

we are all about panic selling, it's the same every time, old as the hills.

[magicmexican]

greedy "i missed the bottom hoping for the 2nd chance" bears will give up soon

[GameStarter]

greedy "i missed the bottom hoping for the 2nd chance" bears will give up soon

same here

[creekbore]

I got a good feeling about this.

Yeah...bugger all that EW nonsense...fall back on wishful thinking

LOL im not falling back on anything. it's all playing out fine.

ya know, elliot wave analysis has fundamental explanation, it's not witch craft. It's not all about charts either, an EW analyst is also fundamentally involved, or is not an EW analyst.

we are all about panic selling, it's the same every time, old as the hills.

I know you are an EW expert but I've done my own research and study into it as well as TA and in traditional markets I believe they are very useful tools.  But BTC is very sentiment driven (check my profile I did a LOT of homework before I even started posting never mind bought a coin) and often behaves contrary to what traditional analysis 'predicts'.

For me one of the fundamentals of TA (or EW) is the bid sum ---its so simple but as humans we love to over complicate things --- right now the bid/ask ratio is 1:2.35.  I don't need to explain that to you but its a scary figure yeah?

"But gosh Creekbore, that can change any moment!"

Yeah, our fairy godmother could pop in and buy a couple of mill BTC....or maybe not :/

The trend over the last three months has been a declining bid sum and an increasing ask sum -- investors want to leave the market and there is no new investment.  It's that simple.

I REALLY wish it wasn't so (then I could make some money too)...but we are heading for a deep and protracted bear market.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[podyx]

people are very bearish

this must be a good time to buy...

i will be very surprised if we see sub 450 tbh

[ShroomsKit]

So we're at 500. Is everybody happy now? Does this feel better than at 600? At 600 there was a reason to completely panic and sells your coins and now at 500 everybody is like ok, this is perfect?
How does that work in the mind of a panic seller. I just don't get it.

Or do we need to get lower again. Because 500 is now expensive. At 200 there are cheap coins. Is that what people will say next? That they want cheap coins?

I want an uptrend.

So even for you it's getting too low.

[RicePicker]

What is going on with Bitstamp's bid/ask sums. Bid sum has not increased for weeks and is continually decreasing....

[ShroomsKit]

if china go under 3000 again we will see some panic

Very exciting days for BTC traders; I can't wait for my fiat to arrive to buy some coins

So we're at 500. Is everybody happy now? Does this feel better than at 600? At 600 there was a reason to completely panic and sells your coins and now at 500 everybody is like ok, this is perfect?
How does that work in the mind of a panic seller. I just don't get it.

Or do we need to get lower again. Because 500 is now expensive. At 200 there are cheap coins. Is that what people will say next? That they want cheap coins?

I understand what you mean but there is more support @ 500 than @ 600 in the market, doesn't that make sense??

And more support at 300. And guess what, i bet there is tons of support at $10. So lets keep dumping then?

[chessnut]

I got a good feeling about this.

Yeah...bugger all that EW nonsense...fall back on wishful thinking

LOL im not falling back on anything. it's all playing out fine.

ya know, elliot wave analysis has fundamental explanation, it's not witch craft. It's not all about charts either, an EW analyst is also fundamentally involved, or is not an EW analyst.

we are all about panic selling, it's the same every time, old as the hills.

I know you are an EW expert but I've done my own research and study into it as well as TA and in traditional markets I believe they are very useful tools.  But BTC is very sentiment driven (check my profile I did a LOT of homework before I even started posting never mind bought a coin) and often behaves contrary to what traditional analysis 'predicts'.

For me one of the fundamentals of TA (or EW) is the bid sum ---its so simple but as humans we love to over complicate things --- right now the bid/ask ratio is 1:2.35.  I don't need to explain that to you but its a scary figure yeah?

"But gosh Creekbore, that can change any moment!"

Yeah, our fairy godmother could pop in and buy a couple of mill BTC....or maybe not :/

The trend over the last three months has been a declining bid sum and an increasing ask sum -- investors want to leave the market and there is no new investment.  It's that simple.

I REALLY wish it wasn't so (then I could make some money too)...but we are heading for a deep and protracted bear market.

the bid ratio is an edge, I use it too. the bid ratio often fails to forecast price, but perhaps it's strategically useful.

EW analysis totally relies on sentiment, dont get me wrong. Every joe wans cheap bitcoins right now. they say they will get them cheap at 300 or so. no sir.

what I can see is a classic wave that I have seen many times. the volume was right, the time was right, the proportions were right, the liquidity, etc etc unfolded according to panic selling. I saw when it was finished, I bought at 475, cant argue with that.

what this means is that we have come to some juncture. could be a long term one, maybe not. Im not willing to say yet - but keep in mind that this is territory for reversal. I dont have a crystal ball, there I said it, satisfied? but with this tool I could pick 475 bottom, and thats a fine tool.

The trend is never good enough on its own. the trend does not help for buying low and selling high. the herd follow the trend, or they shape the trend.

the PBOC event was unexpected and had a binary effect on the market. such events always play out the same in a liquid market. why shouldnt they? that is EW analysis. how the harket moves, not necessarily where.  

[ShroomsKit]

Why is everyone still following Huobi with their goddamn fake volume?

Trader at stamp:
"Oh look, Huobi is going down, I guess I have to click the sell button, fast!!!"

Yes, people are complete idiots.

[KeyserSoze]

And more support at 300. And guess what, i bet there is tons of support at $10. So lets keep dumping then?

$8 would be better.

[JorgeStolfi]

Why is everyone still following Huobi with their goddamn fake volume?

Why is everybody still saying that Huobi's volume is fake?

The Chinese exchanges -- Huobi. OKCoin, and another dozen that are not in the popular charts -- typically have about 90% of all BTC trade volume in the world.  Even if half of it were fake (and there is no evidence that any of it is) they would still have 80% of all the volume in the world.

Bitstamp and the others are following China down the crash because of arbitrage: traders who buy cheap bitcoins in China and sell them in the West.  Arbitrage effectively makes all markets behave like a single market; and this merged market is perhaps 80% chinese.

Still no new news about the "ban" -- and no denial from PBoC...

[ShroomsKit]

Anyone that's been around bitcoin for a while has seen this before, investors are patiently sitting on the sidelines waiting for the bears to run out. Anything other than that would be a poor strategy as bitcoin has a good history of repeating patterns, check the end of the fall from the rise in April

EDIT: August 2012 is probably a little closer to the current situation, not much in the difference though.

When are these investors going to buy exactly? Maybe you noticed we have been going down for months.
And what sane person would buy big amounts of coins right now knowing that one fake tweet or rumous is enough for the sheep to panic sell everything they got and make Bitcoin drop 50 dollars in a few minutes. And since this is actually happening about once a week i really doubt any serious person would buy right.
They know that no amount of good news will make the price go up anymore. People will keep selling till it has become worthless if this stupidity continues.
An amazing idea ruined by traders and idiots.

[Searing]

Why is everyone still following Huobi with their goddamn fake volume?

Why is everybody still saying that Huobi's volume is fake?

The Chinese exchanges -- Huobi. OKCoin, and another dozen that are not in the popular charts -- typically have about 90% of all BTC trade volume in the world.  Even if half of it were fake (and there is no evidence that any of it is) they would still have 80% of all the volume in the world.

Bitstamp and the others are following China down the crash because of arbitrage: traders who buy cheap bitcoins in China and sell them in the West.  Arbitrage effectively makes all markets behave like a single market; and this merged market is perhaps 80% chinese.

Still no new news about the "ban" -- and no denial from PBoC...

er it is looking more and more likely the PBOC ban is true

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2014/03/28/bitcoin_china_pboc_ban/

this is not good sigh at this rate i won't be able to trade any alt-coin at all in "hobby mode" even and get elec costs covered...

sigh


Searing

[chessnut]

Yet we have an opportunity, because the chinese bwankers are asleep now and wont be confirming anything for at least 12 hours. the panic is over, the market will go up now because risk is low.

[jonoiv]

Anyone that's been around bitcoin for a while has seen this before, investors are patiently sitting on the sidelines waiting for the bears to run out. Anything other than that would be a poor strategy as bitcoin has a good history of repeating patterns, check the end of the fall from the rise in April

EDIT: August 2012 is probably a little closer to the current situation, not much in the difference though.

When are these investors going to buy exactly? Maybe you noticed we have been going down for months.
And what sane person would buy big amounts of coins right now knowing that one fake tweet or rumous is enough for the sheep to panic sell everything they got and make Bitcoin drop 50 dollars in a few minutes. And since this is actually happening about once a week i really doubt any serious person would buy right.
They know that no amount of good news will make the price go up anymore. People will keep selling till it has become worthless if this stupidity continues.
An amazing idea ruined by traders and idiots.

+1

The price was going down before any bad news. it's been dropping since Jan 6th. followed by a string of bitcoin bombshells.   it's the same old people singing the same old song for months.   They see 10 mins of green and it's "choo choo" all of a sudden.

With so much negative press in the mainstream media, I also fail to see where new big investments will come from...  The $10,000 believers are in denial the $30,000 believers should be given a straight jacket, and the people that think we'll ever hit $1200 again are also deluded.  
  
It's every man for himself on the way down Imho.

[fonzie]

@creekbore

This one is for you  

[mmitech]

I really do not understand what is happening, it seems that every fart cause a crash while all the huge good news around doesn't seem to effect the price, I sense a downtrend till mid-end April...

[bitgeek]

Yet we have an opportunity, because the chinese bwankers are asleep now and wont be confirming anything for at least 12 hours. the panic is over, the market will go up now because risk is low.

Unless there's another FUD, don't underestimate the rice eaters