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Question: When will BTC get back above $70K:
7/14 - 0 (0%)
7/21 - 1 (1%)
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8/4 - 16 (16.2%)
8/11 - 7 (7.1%)
8/18 - 5 (5.1%)
8/25 - 7 (7.1%)
After August - 52 (52.5%)
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26457013 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
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June 01, 2022, 05:32:57 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

$260mil longs liquidated in minutes, most of them in BFX. It seems that around 75 longs each for 1mil to 1.26mil belong to 1 person. This is quite a loss. May the Lord has mercy on this n00b soul. And this is why we are in a bear market. When we have even one such whale fool to buy high and sell low, all bullish scenarios go south.

That would make me feel a little bit less-bad about my own losses, which were assuredly much smaller!  But I doubt it was a n00b.

My theory—obviously quite a speculative hypothesis, FWIW:

There are always people out there who want to manipulate the market in either direction.  And right now, there must be an awful lot of rich people getting desperate to push BTC up—just as there are other rich people determined to hold it down for now, maybe even to break it.  Much of my own speculation these past few months has been about rich people who lose money in other ways when BTC is too low.  There are now stocks, funds, etc. that crash when BTC crashes.  The market is now complicated, with many moving parts.

The resources needed to open $75–95 million in leveraged longs are grossly inadequate to move such a big market by yourself.  But I think that it should more than suffice to give it a big nudge—to build momentum, and to help building momentum, with the probable objective of pushing it to a short squeeze as in the spectacular long-squeeze-then-short-squeeze scenario last year.

I am not so naïve as to imagine that simply buying $75–95 million in BTC would have any significant impact.  But this is what I think, whenever I see sudden bullish candlesticks out of nowhere:

Pump volatility—I’ve watched order books during periods of high volatility.  I noticed what market maker bots do when volatility spikes.  Sometimes, the order book near mid-market gets so thin that with tens of millions of dollars and a good quant bot, I’d think that you could generate and temporarily support some brilliant giant green candlesticks all by yourself.  (I think the opposite way would work for shorts, of course.)

Which is more likely:  A whale on BFX getting FOMO, or a whale on BFX playing a high-risk gambit to try to ignite some FOMO?  If he (or they—if a firm?) hedged by shorting the perp at the top of his own pump and/or with options, then it would not be high-risk, either.  What sophisticated trader with that much money takes that big a risk, without hedging?

If so, a bullish manipulator just got slapped down hard by bearish manipulators.  Albeit probably not too hard, if adequately hedged.

All markets are wildly manipulated at all times, in all directions by parties with competing interests; thus, such a scenario does not seem far-fetched to me.

On-topic.  But highly speculative, as suits the Speculation forum.  Just thinking aloud, “Who takes that kind of risk, and why?”  FWIW.
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June 01, 2022, 05:34:47 PM

Can a lone individual change the world—change the course of history?  Satoshi proved it!  (Theories to the contrary notwithstanding, I do believe that Satoshi was one individual.)

I agree with your overall point of one person making a difference, yet I am going to quibble with your framing a wee bit.

It appears that satoshi - and bitcoin built on the works of a large number of predecessor projects, and of course, there were a few innovations in bitcoin that geniusly put ideas together and added a few concepts - such as difficulty adjustment... little things that are put together or added in with other aspects of the design to make a difference.. and really have a whole hell of a lot of innovative geniusness contained therein.  Satoshi retained a certain amount of public involvement that lasted around 2 years that seemed to make sure systems were in place in which he could disappear and the project would be able to continue.. so even though arguments could be made that bitcoin just ran itself after satoshi left - there are a quite a few heros in bitcoinlandia.. and maybe some kinds of luck too that people worked separately and together and bitcoin did not come crashing down during various points in which sabotage could have happened (behind the scenes of people saving bitcoin in its more vulnerable times)  or uncertainties about how aspects of some of the wars/attacks on bitcoin would turn out (blocksize war/attacks for example).

I doubt that there are any reasons to take my comments as if they were personal attacks.

No hard feelings.


Mmmmmmmmuuuuuuuuuaaaaaaacccccccchhhhhh.

 Wink

I have spent years telling people not to buy on margin.  I have mentioned in several of my previous posts (and much more in a bunch of anguished outpourings I wrote but didn’t post), I made stupid mistakes that I warn others against.  My very first post under the intentionally melodramatic moniker death_wish was designed to drive the point home graphically.  Some of my recent weeping and wailing with prayers for Bitcoin’s forgiveness is intentionally over-the-top, for the same purpose.

DO NOT DO WHAT I DID.  Which I spent years saying not to do.  Which I then did.  No, really:  DON’T DO IT!

When you exaggerate, it might cause some of us NOT to want to believe you.  I am sure some members here are skeptical about this whole situation, and why are we even talking about it?

I did not exaggerate any of the facts.  To the contrary, I have understated a few points—and omitted much that’s worse.

My rhetoric is sometimes over-the-top:  The weeping and wailing and gnashing of teeth.  Intentionally melodramatic, with a good dose of wry self-deprecation.

I stated my piece.  Take it as you will.  Or don't.


I generally have nothing to discuss with anyone who thinks I’m lying.  I’ve tipped my hand with some technical knowledge of Bitcoin, and a long familiarity with the history of this forum; it’s very unlikely that someone with that level of experience would have no coins to lose.

(I could trivially prove my story; but for reasons of privacy, I am not willing to expose the necessary information.)

Sometimes details matter in terms of trying to figure out what kinds of learning can be done within pubic threads, so most of the times, I give few shits about any of the actual personal details except in the context of trying to bat around some substantive portfolio management ideas. 

Many times there is not going to be any exactly correct answer because many of us manage risks in different ways, and there may be guys who disagree with you on a very high level about getting into the situation, but might well have taken very similar actions once they are in the situation.. Even with mindrust, many of us (including yours truly) like to get all righteous regarding some seemingly strong objective facts (then price dynamics and BTC fundamentals) that likely show that mindrust made some bad trade offs, but it still might be the case based on his exact circumstances, that he did not make the mistakes that we had been accusing him (which was selling near the bottom and failing/refusing to buy back several times to cut his losses), but instead his larger mistake might have been his having had put himself into such a position in the first place that had stemmed back several months (even going back to a year) earlier.

So, in essence, when we are batting around ideas within this public thread regarding various trade offs in terms of what kinds of buying, trading, use of margin or use of other financial instruments to employ, there's almost no way that any two of us are going to agree about the nitty gritty deets (details) of how to do it, when to do x, y or z... and even if we agree on 99% regarding what to do and how to employ it with the specific amounts, the more that we discuss the deets, the more likely we are going to diverge into various disagreements regarding x would be better than y so long as you only do x until the point that the BTC price reaches $xx,xxx, and then at that point you better employ B.. but if BTC price moves x%, you better be ready with D at that point.

So many guys do seem to share within some common themes in regards to just accumulate BTC and don't fuck around with various details, so no matter what you proclaim about the various things you did to beat DCA, you may well not gain any fans by showing how supposedly smart you are in that direction.. .so many times relatively simple strategies are favored in these here parts.. especially if you start to describe something that might well be difficult to replicate... but if you are suggesting some complicated bullshit and saying don't do this, then surely guys are going to have a tendency to agree but still wonder why the fuck you telling us that.. it's obvious that all those complicated maneuverings that you were playing were bound to blow up sooner or later, so why fuck around with them, even if you might have been able to get profits here or there along the way.. we do not give any shits if there might be some times that you might have been able to beat the market or to have had beaten DCA when we already know that DCA (and perhaps some mere minor tweakenings of it) tends to be better replicable practices overall.

I doubt I need to underscore my passion and my principled demand for permissionless systems, which by their nature let me mess myself up if I so choose.

It would be better to mess yourself up on purpose than to do so accidentally.  There are quite a few folks who have locked themselves out of their own coins.. so that can be scary..

Indeed.  And a large part of Bitcoin’s strength is in its community of people who will spend hours patiently schooling newbies in how to set up a wallet properly, how to do backups, and so forth.  I’ve done my part.  I do that kind of thing by habit.

For sure not easy for a whole hell of a lot of normies and newbies...and people lecture the fuck out of people who keep their coins on exchanges (I even engage in some of that lecturing), but it can be quite overwhelming to get either grandma or even someone who you had thought to be somewhat tech savvy to take their coins away from third parties.

Bitcoin is the safest form of money.  It’s like gold in your physical possession—except that you can back it up; and it is so much easier to protect from thieves if you know what you are doing!  But it is an alien world, to anyone without prior experience with cryptography.  “Private keys?  Huh?”  You need to understand that if you lose your keys, or if you spend to a wrong address where nobody has the private keys, then the situation is even more hopeless than if you just threw gold coins into the depths of the ocean.

Familiar physical analogies help, as long as they are not overextended.

You won't get any arguments with me on those points.

[...] In other words, I am starting to feel that I am getting drug into negative energy..

I am conscious of the need to avoid getting monotonous here; and I know that when we get a little bounce with rising bullish sentiment, people won’t be thrilled to see much talk about sadness and losses.

I adapt to the moment and to the context.  To the extent that I express sadness when Bitcoin is up, consider that an opportunity to feel smug about all the coins you have safely in your own wallet, controlled exclusively by your own private keys.

Frequently, it does seem to me to be more energizing when we might be presenting various positive ideas regarding various ways to accumulate or strategize in regards to managing your BTC holdings (rather than what not to do), and those kinds of what to do topics can be discussed no matter where the actual BTC price happens to be.. yet for sure, if the BTC price is moving in one direction or another.. we want to talk about those matters too...  In the end, sometimes we do not agree about what to do, so each of us has to decide for our lil selfies.. and for sure, someone might suggest that "this is a good way to play with your BTC" and others might not agree.  It is not an uncommon topic (another double negative for uie-pooie - sirazimuth) in these here parts.

[...]

Long post, some good stuff...  Will catch up with you and others later!

GREAT!!!!!! 



Don't wait too long...


 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
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June 01, 2022, 05:49:59 PM

*sigh*
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June 01, 2022, 05:54:53 PM
Last edit: June 01, 2022, 10:36:04 PM by HI-TEC99

"Let them eat cake ice-cream"




Or cake chocolate coated Insects.



https://hotlix.com/product/chocolate-flavored-insects/

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An assortment of real crickets and worms, dipped in a chocolate flavored coating.
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June 01, 2022, 06:01:26 PM


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June 01, 2022, 06:04:40 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (10), JayJuanGee (1), Torque (1)

Frens,

finally got my car back. First the mechanic wanted to replace all glow plugs, i instructed him via google translate that he should only replace the one on the third cylinder, which broke off at attempted removal. Work and material was a tad over $170, which i can live well width (opposed to the projected $600 for getting all glow plugs replaced).
The kids have collected some clamshells, and two crab scissors slipped into the buckets, so the car was smelling like a well used vagina in the morning after  Roll Eyes
A couple of hundreds of kilometers of driving with open windows (noise canelling earplugs recommended) cleaned the smell out. I feel sorry for the mechanic that had to move the car around the service center, though.

As i missed the last dip by a little over $200 in limit buy orders, i will throw the rest of monthly fiat in as i see the price go down.
This is no guarantee that the price will move further down, but it tends to do so after my buys, retrospectively  Grin

@death_wish: "deathwish" is a skateboard brand, but if you ever have the chance, change your forum nick to "inner_peace", and i'd also suggest to try to reach the latter, which gives the same result as being dead, but without the rotting and tears of relatives/friends, and you even can live on and enjoy everything and yourself a lot more  Cool
You don't need to be rich to be happy, yourz knowz?  Grin
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June 01, 2022, 06:08:06 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (4)

$260mil longs liquidated in minutes, most of them in BFX. It seems that around 75 longs each for 1mil to 1.26mil belong to 1 person. This is quite a loss. May the Lord has mercy on this n00b soul. And this is why we are in a bear market. When we have even one such whale fool to buy high and sell low, all bullish scenarios go south.

Edit: Things are getting even funnier: The bigger part of this long liquidation happened earlier today with $200mil liquidated on Bitfinex from 31800 to 31500. Some n00b was clearly trying to win the jackpot with a 100x leverage. So, in that case he lost all his $200mil long position. Well played, mate. Cheers for the imbecile!  Grin Grin Grin

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June 01, 2022, 06:53:25 PM

Lolcopter...  The flippening has happened!

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June 01, 2022, 07:02:47 PM
Merited by bitebits (1)

Who created Bitcoin?

A clarification on one point of signal import:

Can a lone individual change the world—change the course of history?  Satoshi proved it!  (Theories to the contrary notwithstanding, I do believe that Satoshi was one individual.)

I agree with your overall point of one person making a difference, yet I am going to quibble with your framing a wee bit.

It appears that satoshi - and bitcoin built on the works of a large number of predecessor projects, and of course, there were a few innovations in bitcoin that geniusly put ideas together and added a few concepts - such as difficulty adjustment... little things that are put together or added in with other aspects of the design to make a difference.. and really have a whole hell of a lot of innovative geniusness contained therein.  Satoshi retained a certain amount of public involvement that lasted around 2 years that seemed to make sure systems were in place in which he could disappear and the project would be able to continue.. so even though arguments could be made that bitcoin just ran itself after satoshi left - there are a quite a few heros in bitcoinlandia.. and maybe some kinds of luck too that people worked separately and together and bitcoin did not come crashing down during various points in which sabotage could have happened (behind the scenes of people saving bitcoin in its more vulnerable times)  or uncertainties about how aspects of some of the wars/attacks on bitcoin would turn out (blocksize war/attacks for example).

Make no mistake, I am not one of those Satoshi-worshipers who speaks of him as an infallible superhuman.

In many ways, his code frankly sucked.  It was an idiosyncratic pile of Windows-only hobby-code written by someone who was obviously smart, eccentric, and working very much alone on a project with a very large scope.  Besides such foibles as that spectacular integer overflow bug, Satoshi’s code had some deep architectural design flaws; that’s why we later needed Segwit as a clever way to kludge in a fix for transaction malleability without a hardfork, and to fix other major problems.  (We are pretty much permanently stuck with a few Satoshi idiosyncrasies I find a bit inelegant, but they are not problems.)

The early Bitcoin community (also before your time) also sucked.  I’ll critique it some other time, probably not in WO—the nutshell version is that I think that defi is now almost analogous to what the Bitcoin community was early on, except that defi is deliberately corrupted by VCs instead of only having the innocent stupidity of a bunch of kids playing with toy-money.  Suffice it here to note, there are reasons why early on, derision of Bitcoin was commonplace in some security and cryptography circles; at that time, unlike the anti-Bitcoin bias in some places now, it was not unjustified.  And one of the earliest attempts to fix this was a Trojan Horse that made it worse:  The so-called “Bitcoin Foundation”.

Bitcoin became what it is because some brilliant coders spent years fixing, refactoring, optimizing, and overall transforming Bitcoin from a hobby-quality project, into the absolute gold standard of serious financial software engineering.  There are people with genius-level IQs who devoted years of their lives to this, long after Satoshi had disappeared.

It is a process; and although the worst problems were fixed by Segwit and some other softfork cleanups, it is still ongoing to some degree.  IMO, one of Satoshi’s worst decisions was to write the wallet and P2P network node as one monolithic unit, with no security separation.  That’s a design flaw in the reference implementation.  Core has been trying for years to separate these functions, one way or another.  It’s not easy—not when they can’t risk wild changes that could break everyone’s money!

Previous efforts stalled, but current efforts look highly promising.  Core’s excellent software engineering process is the reason why it moves so slowly—unlike the move-fast-and-break-things attitude in typical defi blockchains.  Fortunately, fixing this does not require any consensus changes; if done right, most users won’t even notice the upgrade.

The libbitcoinkernel Project (bitcoin/bitcoin#24303) is at the top of my own wishlist.  I salute Carl Dong for his elegant, practical, safe and clean approach.  It is progressing beautifully; it will probably take a long time to ship.  When it’s done, it will open a whole new world of Bitcoin possibilities—this is a Core cleanup, but it is useful far beyond Core; as a developer, I am eager to use this for other projects.  It is one of those things that mere speculators neither know, nor understand, nor care about—no really, this is the kind of effort and talent that makes your Bitcoin valuable!

Bitcoin became what it is because the grown-up adults in the community stamped out scams, shot down stupid ideas, built businesses with sound business models, and showed real leadership.  I do not only, or even primarily refer to the Bitcoin Forum community!  This forum used to be much more influential than now, but it was only one star in a constellation of online and offline Bitcoin community activism.  And on the business side, Blockstream is exemplary of what some genuine old-school cypherpunks can do; several of its key players are or were also highly visible community activists (thus all the conspiracy theories).

So, why did I focus on Satoshi?

Because there is an old saying:  “Cypherpunks write code.”

And because all major movements in human events are always begun by somebody.  Ultimately, by very few people.

People have been talking about cryptographic money for decades.  There had already been a high-profile cryptographic-money project that had failed, and failed spectacularly due to centralization (Digicash).  The Internet was full of theories and discussions, on obscure sites and in discussion groups that >99% of WO hatters have no idea ever existed.  (If I sometimes speak with an air of authority, despite now being almost a nocoiner—yes, I have been around for awhile.)

Satoshi stepped up and did it.  Took action.  All by himself.  In practice, not in theory.

He didn’t wait for someone else to do it.  He did not seek the approval of a committee.  He didn’t put it up to a vote.  And he didn’t ask for anyone’s permission!  He went ahead all by himself, and did it.

That is what “cypherpunks write code” means.  You don’t change the world by chit-chat.  You change the world by writing code that has an irresistible effect.

Without that, all the work by others that I described above would never have existed.

Thus, indeed—as I said—one individual changed the world.  Zoom out, think on a longer timeline than only 13 years, and you will see that one individual changed the course of history.

(Aside, I must express my supreme contempt for the petty narcissists who think that the important thing about Bitcoin is for them to throw their weight around on an Internet forum.  Ultimately, they don’t matter; in 20 years, it will be as if they never existed.  But meanwhile, they are both annoying and disgusting:  They don’t care about Bitcoin.)

[...]

Long post, some good stuff...  Will catch up with you and others later!

GREAT!!!!!!  



Don't wait too long...


 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

With all due apologies—will still be later.  Well, I’ll try.  It seems I fall behind WO to the point that I can’t catch up.

Other important things are being ignored, because that one point you said just jumped out at me while I was peeking in here...  I dropped all else to address it with a little essay that wound up rambling a bit, because I am in haste, etc., etc.  It’s that important.
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June 01, 2022, 07:03:28 PM


Explanation
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June 01, 2022, 07:45:25 PM

BREAKING | Johnny Depp wins defamation trial against Amber Heard; Court Awards Johnny Depp $15M 497.05 BTC in damages in Defamation Case Verdict

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June 01, 2022, 08:07:13 PM
Merited by ivomm (1)

$260mil longs liquidated in minutes, most of them in BFX. It seems that around 75 longs each for 1mil to 1.26mil belong to 1 person. This is quite a loss. May the Lord has mercy on this n00b soul. And this is why we are in a bear market. When we have even one such whale fool to buy high and sell low, all bullish scenarios go south.

Edit: Things are getting even funnier: The bigger part of this long liquidation happened earlier today with $200mil liquidated on Bitfinex from 31800 to 31500. Some n00b was clearly trying to win the jackpot with a 100x leverage. So, in that case he lost all his $200mil long position. Well played, mate. Cheers for the imbecile!  Grin Grin Grin





Literally ,The market hates greedy traders and has a fantastic way of rewarding them.
That is playing with fire, and what does he expect?, getting burnt in end and it happened to him.
Each day there is always a lesson to learn ....Let him learn.
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June 01, 2022, 08:11:00 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (5)

BREAKING | Johnny Depp wins defamation trial against Amber Heard; Court Awards Johnny Depp $15M 497.05 BTC in damages in Defamation Case Verdict

Finally some justice in this otherwise dark world.
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June 01, 2022, 08:20:13 PM

If I sometimes speak with an air of authority, despite now being almost a nocoiner—yes, I have been around for awhile.

Oh?

Are you satoshi, then?

or maybe you knew him?

Aside, I must express my supreme contempt for the petty narcissists who think that the important thing about Bitcoin is for them to throw their weight around on an Internet forum.  Ultimately, they don’t matter; in 20 years, it will be as if they never existed.  But meanwhile, they are both annoying and disgusting:  They don’t care about Bitcoin.

Are you referring to anyone in particular?

Asking for a friend.


My only friend in the whole world, aka suchmoon.

[...]

Long post, some good stuff...  Will catch up with you and others later!

GREAT!!!!!!  



Don't wait too long...


 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

With all due apologies—will still be later.  Well, I’ll try.  It seems I fall behind WO to the point that I can’t catch up.

Other important things are being ignored, because that one point you said just jumped out at me while I was peeking in here...  I dropped all else to address it with a little essay that wound up rambling a bit, because I am in haste, etc., etc.  It’s that important.

You're a worse version of me... so it seems.
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June 01, 2022, 08:30:40 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (10)

Wait... why is Nullius using a sock puppet?  That is nullius, right?
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June 01, 2022, 08:33:11 PM
Last edit: June 01, 2022, 09:08:53 PM by empowering





Hope you are enjoying the volatility
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June 01, 2022, 08:35:14 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (6)

Are you satoshi, then?

Don't insult nullius. Satoshi was a hobbyist coder. Nullius is the greatest cyphercoder ever, also a philosopher, Bitcoin trader, adult entertainment star, and he creates more cringe per square word than any other fake internet personality.

My only friend in the whole world, aka suchmoon.

Awwww...

Wait... why is Nullius using a sock puppet?  That is nullius, right?

Because his whole genius doesn't fit into one account.
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June 01, 2022, 08:40:35 PM

Usually there is a dump @ 30k euro, any moment now.....

How did you guess?

It's another bart.
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June 01, 2022, 08:40:58 PM

Escalating quickly

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