Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Biodom]

An instructive snippet (from reddit):

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/vo8na0/tell_me_we_have_no_reason_for_btc/

and

rumors of Blockfi fire sale:

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/30/ftx-closes-in-on-a-deal-to-buy-embattled-crypto-lender-blockfi-for-25-million-in-a-fire-sale.html

however, the price is being debunked (but even if turned out 50mil, who cares!):

https://twitter.com/BlockFiZac/status/1542582904110317568?cxt=HHwWgICwwc6-regqAAAA

reminds me of the Bear sell for $1, which was negotiated upwards to $2 or 3 (while it was $30 the day or two before and $100-140 the month before).
Blockfi was just recently valued at $1 bil (and $4 bil before).

[empowering]

rumors of Blockfi fire sale:

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/30/ftx-closes-in-on-a-deal-to-buy-embattled-crypto-lender-blockfi-for-25-million-in-a-fire-sale.html

however, the price is being debunked (but even if turned out 50mil, who cares!):

https://twitter.com/BlockFiZac/status/1542582904110317568?cxt=HHwWgICwwc6-regqAAAA

reminds me of the Bear sell for $1, which was negotiated upwards to $2 or 3 (while it was $30 the day or two before and $100-140 the month before).
Blockfi was just recently valued at $1 bil (and $4 bil before).

[fillippone]

I hope bitcoin crashes to $0 and it dies a fiery death. I will consume all of the popcorn that is available in a 100-mile radius from where I live. It will be a glorious event.

I hope it crashes to $0.01 tomorrow, so I can buy everything the market throws at me.

I think Adam Back has an order: 0.02 for 21 millions.




He locked 420K on an exchange so that Bitcoin cannot go to zero.

Entities REKT during this bear market;

MOAR Doors coming

[Biodom]

it feels weird...re the demise of the lending infrastructure.

remember the scary sci-fi movie with Nicholas Cage ("Knowing").
EE...he could not get what it means...finally, he gets it: everyone else

[death_wish]

I very rarely read all of WO,

I myself rarely read WO at all.  But in the periods when I read any of it, I don’t think that I could plausibly miss a discussion that has on-and-off spanned about 12 days—including a mini-flamewar between Jay and myself.  (Jay does not want to see gold mentioned favourably here, even as the basis for a pro-Bitcoin argument.)  It seems unlikely:  Possible, but improbable.  I balance that observation against your prior known credibility.

In the past, you have expressed an irrational personal dislike for me.

Care to reference this? I once enquired to others about putting you on ignore. This doesn't mean I dislike you, only that I'd prefer to ignore you. Not convinced I ever expressed dislike for you...

Simply to answer your question:  That is the post to which I referred.  In a thread where it is customary to wave around the Almighty Ignore List as a ridiculous threat or insult, it is disingenuous for you to claim that a sarcastic “asking for a friend” post, with no conceivable purpose but to announce to others that you may ignore me, does not show “dislike”.

Is it worth putting death_wish on ignore? Asking for a friend...

That, in a gratuitous post all by itself, sufficiently speaks to the question.  For some reason, you deeply cared about announcing to others that you may ignore me.  I found it amusing.

If you were making references to Gold's bear market, as I said, good for you. I did so purely in the context of Yearly MAs, so unless this is what you did, I clearly didn't rip you off what-so-ever, even if i did read what you had to say (which I didn't).

My essential message is that Bitcoin is fine.  I am dismayed and frankly disappointed at some of the alleged strong-hands here, who suddenly started crying in disbelief after we broke the 200 WMA and the previous cycle top.  Accordingly, I make war on those magical lines which cause panic when they break—and I point to gold for an extreme example of an irrational bear market for a sound-money asset.

At the time, only fools would have said that “gold is dead”.  Do we call Bitcoin “digital gold”?

Did it matter if gold broke whatever TA lines people may have drawn to attempt predicting the bottom?  Viz., whatever lines they drew at the time, to forecast the future.  Not whatever you may draw now, with the benefit of 20/20 hindsight.

I would link to it, but it was not one post.  My essential thesis on this was spread out across a bunch of posts, including replies to others.

Yearly MAs are a red herring.  That is your angle on a subject that I have been discussing.

I'm almost certain none of your insights are based on excellence, so there is no loss here.

Given that you lack the ability to evaluate your own competence, you surely all the worse lack the psychic powers to judge excellence in writings that you have not even read—which you may be unable to read with full comprehension.

[death_wish]

However.... I reiterate my position that not all trading is bad, that all TA/QA is not useless, leverage is just a tool (a dangerous tool that will cut your arm off without proper risk management)


Tis what it is.


Tis not for everyone.


Tis not even for the SAME person, a good thing at different times (for example, you are stressed/not in the right mind, under financial stress, not well, not rested, have not thought out what you are doing, have not done extensive training, market conditions are not right... you are drunk etc etc)

True.  My initial risk-taking behaviour was largely caused by personal pressures that I have not mentioned, on grounds of “nobody’s business but my own”.  For years, I was patient and prudent; I felt pressure of running out of time for more patience, more prudence.

In mid-May, I wrote but did not post something long, addressed to Jay, about how drastically out of character this was for me.

You just captured in a nutshell what he missed in later discussion, when he speculated that I had a gambling addiction (!).  When someone does something drastically out of character, especially when someone smart does something terrifically stupid, there is usually a reason beneath the surface.


I agree with most else in your post, except for this:

Trend is your friend.... until the end.... my only friend.

Alzo.... TREND + MOMENTUM + VOLATILITY taken together... is a useful way of viewing the market.

Trend is your friend—until it isn’t.  Trend-followers and momentum traders not infrequently get wiped out.  Of course, you will chalk it up to a lack of adequate risk management. #justsaying

[empowering]

Trend is your friend.... until the end.... my only friend.

Alzo.... TREND + MOMENTUM + VOLATILITY taken together... is a useful way of viewing the market.

Trend is your friend—until it isn’t.  Trend-followers and momentum traders not infrequently get wiped out.  Of course, you will chalk it up to a lack of adequate risk management. #justsaying

Fair, that is  what the "until the end" bit means thou'  "until it isn't"

One note... I do not necessarily advocate trend trading alone, nor momentum trading alone.... I advocate for the three I mentioned all in unison together, that is what I was trying to say at least... trend together with momentum and together with volatility ...

ie, take trades that are with the trend not against it...(look for longs in up trends, not shorts, look for shorts in downtrends, not longs) and then together with a signal from momentum oscillators, so you should have a direction, and then look for volatility expansion or contraction from extremes, which coincide with the trend and momentum.... when you get all three together, then, consider entering a trade.

(with usual risk management/position sizing etc)  


Not financial advice

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[xhomerx10]

~snip

Food for thought.

I don’t do “batslaps”.

~snip

 I disagree.

 

[dragonvslinux]

I very rarely read all of WO,

I myself rarely read WO at all.  But in the periods when I read any of it, I don’t think that I could plausibly miss a discussion that has on-and-off spanned about 12 days—including a mini-flamewar between Jay and myself..

100% you're right that it was unmissable, to everyone here I imagine, if it's one of the intense discussions I think you're referring to. The scrolling required to ignore was intense, I nearly strained a finger.
You're clearly overlooking the seconds to minutes it took to scroll over these discussions, compared to the minutes to hours it would take to read and/or engage with it.

In the past, you have expressed an irrational personal dislike for me.

Care to reference this? I once enquired to others about putting you on ignore. This doesn't mean I dislike you, only that I'd prefer to ignore you. Not convinced I ever expressed dislike for you...

Simply to answer your question:  That is the post to which I referred.  In a thread where it is customary to wave around the Almighty Ignore List as a ridiculous threat or insult, it is disingenuous for you to claim that a sarcastic “asking for a friend” post, with no conceivable purpose but to announce to others that you may ignore me, does not show “dislike”.

That's what I thought, clear presumption. No evidence that I "dislike you", only that I'd prefer to ignore you. I admire Bitcoin enthusiasts, doesn't mean I want to hear their particular brand of rhetoric 24/7 though, especially from degenerate gamblers (no offence intended). I heavily admire JJG for his various arguments, but it doesn't mean I want to read them all the time either. Most of the time I completely ignore them when it's not directed or related to me. Does this mean I dislike him? Of course not. I'm sure there are many opinions of yours I would agree with, but I haven't bothered to spend the time to read them among the wall of texts tbh..

Is it worth putting death_wish on ignore? Asking for a friend...

That, in a gratuitous post all by itself, sufficiently speaks to the question.  For some reason, you deeply cared about announcing to others that you may ignore me.  I found it amusing.

I was genuinely wanting some feedback as to whether it was worthwhile or not, how effective is the ignore button. I'm still yet to find out. Again, you're just making presumptions here. Just because I'm not stroking your ego by reading your every word and engaging with every discussion, it doesn't mean I dislike you, only that maybe I don't want to waste my time reading what you have to say. I can't emphasise this enough. After all, this is the Internet. I don't reserve much energy for disliking people on here, that takes too much effort imo. Especially on an Internet Forum. Glad to hear you found it funny though...

If you were making references to Gold's bear market, as I said, good for you. I did so purely in the context of Yearly MAs, so unless this is what you did, I clearly didn't rip you off what-so-ever, even if i did read what you had to say (which I didn't).

Yearly MAs are a red herring.  That is your angle on a subject that I have been discussing.

Right, so I'm not ripping off your argument then, I'm arguing against it? Great, glad to hear it, wouldn't have it any other way.
Unless your opinion on the matter is the only one that's relevant? In such a case, I deeply apologise your excellence.

I'm almost certain none of your insights are based on excellence, so there is no loss here.

Given that you lack the ability to evaluate your own competence, you surely all the worse lack the psychic powers to judge excellence in writings that you have not even read—which you may be unable to read with full comprehension.

I do evaluate my lack of competence here regularly in fact, enough users know this from me. I acknowledge my mistakes and inaccuracies, but ultimately this discussion isn't about me. It's about your excellence in writing, that clearly I am incapable of comprehending (poor me). I sometimes wish I was able to learn from degenerate gamblers, but then I realise it's not worth my time or energy.

[empowering]

Plus we keep dipping into weekends which never feels very "yay".

Another weekend another slide.



YAAAAAY!

I'm so glad that at least some of you are cheering about this. The faster we get to $15K levels we end this faster. I'l be prepared to fill some more of my stashes!    

WE GET A 30% discount from the 70% Discount !!! That is a 210% VALUE !!! YOU LOSE MONEY IF YOU DON't BUY AT $16K at least.    

Bruh...  where you been ?

I got a question for you....

How many trees you planted ?

Do you rip trees up wen you lose sats too?

Are you actually near a rainsforest?

Did you mention living in/near Mongolia before ?

[xhomerx10]

Wow... cool

 Now that's a nice looking green candle.  MOAR please!!

[Gachapin]

almost forgot how it looks like when BTC powers up (just a little, but still...)

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Mr.right85]

almost forgot how it looks like when BTC powers up (just a little, but still...)

Just a little still that puts smiles on the faces of those holding.

How about those looking out for a dip to enter the market, Lol...

[gallianooo]

LOL, nice last M15 candle to close the month at 20K$ (19,942$)  

Still almost 10% less than the 200WMA monthly (22K$).

Next month(s) are critical ?  

[dragonvslinux]

almost forgot how it looks like when BTC powers up (just a little, but still...)

Just a little still that puts smiles on the faces of those holding.

How about those looking out for a dip to enter the market, Lol...

Market has been in a dip for more than 2 months now. Sub $28K last month was a dip, sub $20K this month is a dip. Quite possible sub $16/17K next month could be another dip. But unless you're being sarcastic, then I don't see how looking for a dip next month after months of dips is realistic. Surely it'd be a case or looking for another dip, a third dip even, given market has been dipping for 2 months already.

I'm going to assume you're being sarcastic at this point  

[BTCaesar]

Salutations Gentlebeings


jeez...sub $20k corn...what a blessing. I knew there had to be some positive news out there after a few days into hiking...I fell off a cliff and broke my leg. LOL. I am an idiot sometimes...


Get well soon Toxic2040 I personally miss your charts. Glad that you turned back!

[BTCaesar]

almost forgot how it looks like when BTC powers up (just a little, but still...)

Just a little still that puts smiles on the faces of those holding.

How about those looking out for a dip to enter the market, Lol...

Market has been in a dip for more than 2 months now. Sub $28K last month was a dip, sub $20K this month is a dip. Quite possible sub $16/17K next month could be another dip. But unless you're being sarcastic, then I don't see how looking for a dip next month after months of dips is realistic. Surely it'd be a case or looking for another dip, a third dip even, given market has been dipping for 2 months already.

I'm going to assume you're being sarcastic at this point  

This is my second bear market experience, and yes… it hurts as hell, as I am out of fiat. Otherwise I would stack some Sats. Hopefully we won’t see another dip. Hopium? It unfortunately is missing due to current silly news…

[Mr.right85]

almost forgot how it looks like when BTC powers up (just a little, but still...)

Just a little still that puts smiles on the faces of those holding.

How about those looking out for a dip to enter the market, Lol...

Market has been in a dip for more than 2 months now. Sub $28K last month was a dip, sub $20K this month is a dip. Quite possible sub $16/17K next month could be another dip. But unless you're being sarcastic, then I don't see how looking for a dip next month after months of dips is realistic. Surely it'd be a case or looking for another dip, a third dip even, given market has been dipping for 2 months already.

I'm going to assume you're being sarcastic at this point  

You get it right 

It's been way too much dip and still, we aren't set for a bull market. The truth about about is, a 17k is the most we can dip at this point and those yet to take an entry would just be waiting till the market is fully on the rise. By then, the deep must have eluded them. Buy now ad hold!