Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Torque]

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[Torque]

Btw - I'm curious what is the news. Or just mannered shorts liquidation?

3AC blowing their margin call, and BlockFi firesale @ $25M

What are they?

Shitcoin derivative scam markets...nothing to see here...move along, move along.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Hueristic]

ICE is now able to track transactions made through nearly a dozen different digital currencies, including Bitcoin, Ether, and Tether.

https://theintercept.com/2022/06/29/crypto-coinbase-tracer-ice/

Coinbase, the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the United States, is selling Immigrations and Customs Enforcement a suite of features used to track and identify cryptocurrency users, according to contract documents shared with The Intercept.

Fuck you Coinbase.

[DonQuijote]

Btw - I'm curious what is the news. Or just mannered shorts liquidation?

3AC blowing their margin call, and BlockFi firesale @ $25M

What are they?

Shitcoin derivative scam markets...nothing to see here...move along, move along.

Ok haha, thank you!!

[cAPSLOCK]

I think we HAVE to go down some more... but that chart is encouraging a little because the money to be made playing this reliable game means the price want's to be made to go up.  We COULD have bottomed as many people say... but usually bitcoin bottoms are more violent than this one has seemed to have been.

If my memory is serving me very well, our move down to $17,593 (a mere 11 days ago) was pretty violent so far.. and we are still more than 10% below the 200-week-moving average (which also feels like a kind of ongoing violence.. but what do I know?).. It kind of reminds me of  our early 2015 bottom down to $153 or whatever it was?  That felt violent, too... but what do I know?

I hope you are right...  I guess the part I am not seeing is the sort of action that makes this look like something other than just a big bear flag.  The DOWN was violent, but the UP has not been.   Yet.

Plus we keep dipping into weekends which never feels very "yay".

Well.. it's not exactly Kill Bill yet, but we're to Pulp Fiction for sure, I'd say...

[Biodom]

I just hope that someone buys Celsius for $1+ resuming obligations so we can start a "real" recovery to @dragonvslinux target (which I concur with) of 47-49K.
Pronto, please.
No matter what some of you say, the bear markets are no fun.

[suchmoon]

Next month(s) are critical ?  

Next 24 years are critical.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Biodom]

Next month(s) are critical ?  

Next 24 years are critical.

not for everybody...

a funny thought occurred (had a bit to drink):
Warren Buffett putting half of his 96bil inheritance to buy btc, just for kicks and giggles to rile EVERYONE. I wish someone with a big fortune plays this "practical joke".
I realize that WB won't do it...he is too "square".

[cAPSLOCK]

What do people think contributed most to Golds 20 year bear market ?

If not 10 years of over-speculation to the upside, It could have been re-installed faith in fiat currencies, despite the fact they were still effectively worthless, but doesn't look that way.

The fact that the S&P made a new high in 1980 after an 8 year bear market can't be a coincidence though. Money better placed elsewhere? GOLD vs SPX back then:

One of my best trades ever was buying a sack of gold towards the end of 1999.

[DaRude]

Probably one hedge fund liquidating, as another one feeds on it's flesh, they're quiet cannibalistic, it's like a circle of life for them. 10min tictoc another block

[JayJuanGee]

I know that there are some members who really have personal issues with me, and sometimes they will harbor those resentments for a long time, even for years, and then come out with a bunch of anger posts... hahahaha it is kind of funny how some folks can hate certain peeps on the interwebs so much.

With your way of seeing things, on the flipside, you can never have some of the positive life experiences that I have (very rarely) had in cypherspace.  If you are too detached, you don’t much care either way—you can never make much of a deep connection with anyone.  I am not only saying this now:  I have had that thought about you before, years ago.  It hit me when you declared somewhere, with a distinctly absolutist attitude, that “nobody gives a shit about you on the Internet” (here paraphrasing from recollection).  Well, it is true in the overwhelming majority of cases.  But with your outlook, you will miss the one-in-a-million outliers.

Both you and I likely realize that none of these relationship matters are completely absolute - because it is the case that the longer that we are around can contribute towards us being more or less comfortable with other members - maybe certain members more than others.

There are also statements that are made in response to other statements - so if I call you "a big fucking whiner,"  there is likely a context, and some relationship might be healable through times, and other relations might continue to harbor reservations and/or resentments.

We do not need to get into any exact names, but if you  or I were provided with a private and confidential survey in regards to various comforts that we have with a list of 20 members, and we were told to rate on a scale of 1-10 in regards, to various levels of trustworthiness, or sharing of confidentialities, or whether we would pay them money, have them hold money (like a loan), give them certain responsibilities , then each member should receive  a different result with some higher on the scale than others in certain categories.. and also some members we might feel tht we do not have enough information to rank them in certain categories, but if we had a written interview or a telephonic interview or a video interview or an in person interview, or if we had them work for us for 90 days (historically an acceptable employment probationary period) , then we might be able to arrive at better determinations regarding our trust/confidence levels in regards to that person trustworthiness, reliability and/or whether we might want to enter into a relationship and what kinds or is it it just an arms-length relationship rather than more intimate.

Regarding  missing a 1/1 million opportunity, sure it happens, but we still have to screen matters, and sometimes we also have to cut our losses and not take any further chances because rightly or wrongly we may well find our time and energies is not being used well... does not mean we are correct, but we have to make choices that are not always easy.. and realize that sometimes we cannot go back on our choices..

If someone were to offer me a billion dollars right now to give up some of those positive life experiences, I would tell him to take his money straight to hell.  That is not hyperbole.  Some things are priceless.

I know, also, that sometimes people do things differently from what they say that they would do when there is actual concrete offer on the table rather than exploring a hypothetical that may well never be presented.. .yet we are likely more prepared to think through the matter if we had thought about the possibilities of various offers that could be made prior to the offer actually being made, so we are in a much better place if we have prepared in order to be ready, willing and able to follow through when opportunities are presented.  In that regard, if opportunities are presented, but we have not sufficiently planned/nor prepared, then we might ONLY have one or two of the three (ready, willing and able), which is the same as not having had prepared to be able to take advantage of such opportunities when they are presented.

On the negative side, I dislike permitting those who are beneath me drain my time and energy on nonsense.  Whether IRL or online, I oughtn’t trouble myself too much to swat a troublesome fly, if it is inconvenient.  Most of all, I must mind the proverb about wrestling with a pig.  It is best to take the high road, to focus on important things, to comport oneself with poise and professionalism.  But I never forgive, if someone seriously crosses me—never forgive, never forget.  Despicable characters tend eventually to lay out enough proverbial rope to hang themselves, anyway.

I don't really disagree with you, but I still consider the idea of "never say never".. .and also sometimes I might even be hesitant to think about "never", but worse to say "never" and then not really mean never.. . .but really mean "almost never."... which practically could have the same results... some kinds of conduct seem to be BIGGER deal-breakers than others... sometimes first impressions are wrong, too... such as "oh, you are not as bad a guy/gal as I had initially thought."

[cAPSLOCK]

Don't get too excited about that green candle.

We're in completely uncharted waters, presently; ending the third worst performing month in the history of Bitcoin, so far, on top of historical VC blow-outs spreading contagion everywhere.

May take some more time yet to fully unwind, considering how big of an L many VC's took this month.

Stay frosty, and keep your powder dry.

It's weird isn't it? 

[death_wish]

1 BTC ≠ 1 BTC.

ICE is now able to track transactions made through nearly a dozen different digital currencies, including Bitcoin, Ether, and Tether.

https://theintercept.com/2022/06/29/crypto-coinbase-tracer-ice/

Coinbase, the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the United States, is selling Immigrations and Customs Enforcement a suite of features used to track and identify cryptocurrency users, according to contract documents shared with The Intercept.

Fuck you Coinbase.

The destruction of privacy is also an economic issue, bad for Bitcoin.  Bitcoiners who accept this are their own worst enemies.

With tracking inevitably comes UTXO blacklisting, and thus the continued process of turning Bitcoin into an NFT.  1 BTC ≠ 1 BTC.

Oldie-but-goody, Adam Back in 2014:
https://youtu.be/3dAdI3Gzodo?t=47

My comments on another thread, re “coin taint”:

[...] —and in the long term, please support any competent efforts to add to Bitcoin what Dr. Back says on one of his slides:

“Idealized cryptographic ecash aims to enforce fungibility via indistinguishability rather than law... trust in mathematics over law”.

Dr. Back discusses various privacy technologies, from centralized blind signatures to Zerocoin/Zerocash.  Unfortunately, the technological information is only up to date as of 2014.  His explanation of the fungibility issue is the important part here; the only change on that point is that the problem has become worse, much worse.

So stated, because some people will only pay attention when they are proverbially hit in the wallet.  Fungibility is one of the most important arguments for privacy.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Hamza2424]

Explanation

[DaRude]

1 BTC ≠ 1 BTC.

ICE is now able to track transactions made through nearly a dozen different digital currencies, including Bitcoin, Ether, and Tether.

https://theintercept.com/2022/06/29/crypto-coinbase-tracer-ice/

Coinbase, the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the United States, is selling Immigrations and Customs Enforcement a suite of features used to track and identify cryptocurrency users, according to contract documents shared with The Intercept.

Fuck you Coinbase.

The destruction of privacy is also an economic issue, bad for Bitcoin.  Bitcoiners who accept this are their own worst enemies.

With tracking inevitably comes UTXO blacklisting, and thus the continued process of turning Bitcoin into an NFT.  1 BTC ≠ 1 BTC.

Oldie-but-goody, Adam Back in 2014:
https://youtu.be/3dAdI3Gzodo?t=47

My comments on another thread, re “coin taint”:

[...] —and in the long term, please support any competent efforts to add to Bitcoin what Dr. Back says on one of his slides:

“Idealized cryptographic ecash aims to enforce fungibility via indistinguishability rather than law... trust in mathematics over law”.

Dr. Back discusses various privacy technologies, from centralized blind signatures to Zerocoin/Zerocash.  Unfortunately, the technological information is only up to date as of 2014.  His explanation of the fungibility issue is the important part here; the only change on that point is that the problem has become worse, much worse.

So stated, because some people will only pay attention when they are proverbially hit in the wallet.  Fungibility is one of the most important arguments for privacy.

That's a known attack vector and was inevitable. There's no historical justification to assume those in power will give it up willingly without a fight. Luckily it's greatly negated by the concept of jurisdictions, as long as we don't have one world government, and BTC is global. What do you care if North Korea/China/Russia blacklists your BTC? And they'd feel the same about your laws.  Gresham's Law tells us that your "blacklisted" UTXOs will just find their way to another jurisdiction, and their blacklisted UTXOs will come to you, rinse and repeat. As long as we don't have one world hegemony


*Mandatory coinbase user reference

[JayJuanGee]

Gambler’s Fallacy

Most blocks take nowhere near 10 minutes to arrive; the average of the exponential distribution is almost meaningless to everyday-life usage questions of “how long will this take?”, and the exponential distribution generally defies human intuition.

I still like my rendition, even though D_W established that "technically" my framing is not accurate.  I still like it.. because it is fun.. tick tock next block.

It is classic Gambler’s Fallacy.

No, I am not trying to be persnickety.  The Bitcoinland urban legend of “blocks take about 10 minutes” is Gambler’s Fallacy:  A practical expectation that you are “due” for a win based on a statistical average.

We win by creating an impression in which things are working in bitcoin.. yes, the royal "we" or whatever.. doesn't matter to me., and the details do not matter either.,

We do not need to know the details because we win no matter what as long as the blocks come out and on average the blocks are coming out - about every 10 minutes ... every two weeks the difficulty adjusts in order to shoot for such 10 minutes per block on average time target goal too.

Winner winner chicken dinner.


Technically.....   D_W says


Fuck technically!!!

Yeah.. maybe it matters for a miner.. or for someone in a hurry transacting a $1 million transaction.. but most people only need to know that bitcoin workie workie works.. and it continues to work... and workie workie, too

When is the next block?  
Approximately 10 minutes.. give or take..

if the next block ends up being 2 minutes or 20 minutes, and even skewed towards two minutes, I (or is it we?) give few shits, I am still going to answer in the same way..  10 minutes dude (no not that dude).. general dude.

If I were betting on when the next block is going to come. I might give some shits.. but I am not, and I am not going to bet, either.. my only bet is that bitcoin works, continues to work and it has been working for more than 13.5 years.  tick tock.. tick tock tick tock.. bitcoin still works, and next block.. amazing!!!!   when's it coming?  I don't know.. but maybe in 10 minutes-ish.  

I am not setting expectations too high, either when I say.. the next block is coming in more or less about approximately 10 minutes.. and if 10 minutes runs again and again and there still is no block, and the person waiting for the block says to me:  "hey dude (no not that dude) I thought that you said the next block will be in 10 minutes..  when is the next block going to come?"   , I will say that the next block should be here in about 10 minutes.

It's a great answer.. when in doubt, just say 10 minutes.. tick tock necxt  block.. been working for 13.5 years and more and I don't expect it to stop.. that's why I have money in it.. I feel good about that... .. .. more or less 10 minutes comes the next block.. it works, and it is amazing.. you should thinking about getting some in case it catches on...

Don’t forget that Bitcoin’s mining algorithm is a giant lottery—and that on the flipside, many Provably Fair crypto-casinos use SHA2 to roll virtual dice.  Waving hands over some important technical differences, it is useful to keep that in mind.

In practice, although they are discrete and not continuous processes, games of chance that pick winners based on a uniform distribution can be usefully modelled as Poisson processes.  Wins accordingly have a statistically “expected” arrival time based on the average of an exponential distribution—just like Bitcoin’s 10-minute target for blocktimes, a targeted average calculated over numerous blocks.

By this model, the “fastest” quartile of wins feels so lucky that it gets gamblers excited—just like how 25% of Bitcoin blocks arrive within 173 seconds.  The median is much faster than the average, which means that fully half of all games feel luckier than they really are.  Tell me, how many times have you exclaimed, “Wow, I am so lucky—the confirmation of my tx was much faster than I expected!”?

You seem to be proving my point.  Underpromise and over deliver.. another great bitcoin feature.

The “slowest” quartile of wins then drains the gamblers’ funds as they keep playing, believing themselves “due” for a win.  Those are the blocks that seem to take forever, as you are awaiting confirmation.  That long tail is long, indeed!

and while they are waiting.. we just keep saying that the block should arrive in 10 minutes.  I hpe that you did not bet on this.  Sucks to be you if you bet on it.

The exponential distribution plays games with your head.  It defies and exploits human intuitions in almost every possible way.  It is a dice site’s best friend.

Maybe some stats textbooks say the same thing.  Maybe not.  I figured this out myself, many moons ago.

* death_wish loves the exponential distribution.

Have fun with all that.  I am just going to continue with the party line. whether it is correct or not.. doesn't matter to me, even though it may well matter to a miner or someone who is working (or betting) in regards to the relevance of those kinds of details.

How did Craig frame the matter?

I forget the details but Peter Rizun asked how long (on average) the next block would be if the last one was n minutes ago and he answered with the 10-n option. That had a lot of CSW supporters illustrate the mental gymnastics they were willing to go through.

For sure, he frequently gets caught in really dumb answers.. an/or lame descriptions about what bitcoin is including the seemingly forced "what I designed" it to do. blah blah blah.... including the pursuit of copy right and intellectual property matters..

If bitcoin keeps falling soon it won't be enough to just hold BTC. Every holder will have to buy a miner and make it work at home. Because falling under $ 17 000 will force many miners to turn off their equipment. Those who mine with S17 and pay $0.1 per kilowatt lose $1.2 every day if 1 BTC costs $ 20 000.

Oh my God... I just had this terrible thought... This could lead to a sort of negative feedback loop!  Ahh, what could we call it... an "abysmal spinning down".  No too clunky.  Umm, a "deceasement loop"... nah deceasement is not a word, is it?

I don't know... someone could come up with a good name for it.

How have we never thought of this before?

I'm thinking that a good name for it would be a "mining death spiral."

You heard it here first.  

#justsaying

[edited out]

...death spiral ?

Hey.. either that is not fair, or you were "reading my mind"... by saying to ur lil selfie:  "what would jjg think, if he were faced with such a question?"

 

If Bitcoin were the only Cryptocurrency:

1 BTC would have a price of $158,448.86 at a $3 Trillion Total Crypto Market cap.

$44,042.79 per BTC at the current Total Crypto Market cap of $840 billion.

Interesting, isn't it?

No.

WE GET A 30% discount from the 70% Discount !!! That is a 210% VALUE !!! YOU LOSE MONEY IF YOU DON't BUY AT $16K at least.    

WOW!!!!


BBBBBbbbbaaaaaammmmmmmbbbbbb!!!!

That's how it works?

No wonder you have tendencies to find "bargains" in so many unique places.  

Who would-a-thunk?

[death_wish]

1 BTC ≠ 1 BTC.

[...]

Oldie-but-goody, Adam Back in 2014:
https://youtu.be/3dAdI3Gzodo?t=47

My comments on another thread, re “coin taint”:

[...] —and in the long term, please support any competent efforts to add to Bitcoin what Dr. Back says on one of his slides:

“Idealized cryptographic ecash aims to enforce fungibility via indistinguishability rather than law... trust in mathematics over law”.

[...]

That's a known attack vector and was inevitable. There's no historical justification to assume those in power will give it up willingly without a fight. Luckily it's greatly negated by the concept of jurisdictions, as long as we don't have one world government,

FATF.  (As the start of a long list...)

I agree with Adam Back about this:  Trust in mathematics over law.