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Question: What happens first:
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<$60,000 - 19 (30.6%)
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26368032 times)
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August 13, 2022, 03:01:21 AM


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August 13, 2022, 03:05:20 AM
Merited by cAPSLOCK (20)

You guys ready for the big race of bitcoin ownership?

Who will win?  El Salvador? Plebs? Blackrock? Russia? The Netherlands? Central African Republic? Ukraine?

They have waked up. 

But they are not talking.


Why would you?  At the poker table when you have the nuts...

Hueristic... help me here.

The smartest ones have realized they cant make paper out of it.  That is deadly.  The game has changed.

The dumb ones will still try ... and go broke to the smart ones.

Are you ready?

I don't think so.   Me either really...

Like you already said when you got the nuts you just keep your mouth shut and let them hang themselves. Wink

I.E. HODL and BTFD.
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August 13, 2022, 03:19:01 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

Remember, Wikipedia doesn't supply content. Its content comes from a worldwide community of "editors" and as such is as vulnerable as any other social media to personal opinions and other bullshit.

I think they're well past "personal opinions" and far into paid botting and astroturfing. But I agree that it's still useful in places. As is reddit.

Depends on the context.

For STEM, the content there can be exceedingly valuable, and indeed, sometimes the only reliable authority on the topic (e.g. All the cryptography stuff I supplied to Bitcoin Wiki more or less comes from Wikipedia).

As for corporations, personalities, and other "entities", the content can be low-quality ad shit - the Bitcointalk page is a perfect example demonstrating this, it was basically a whiner's ranting spot against Theymos until wikipedia admins took down the whole page.
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August 13, 2022, 03:29:32 AM

Are we going to see a solid run at 25 tonight?

I'm calling it, it's happening. If it doesn't, feel free to blame me!
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August 13, 2022, 03:35:15 AM

You guys ready for the big race of bitcoin ownership?

...The smartest ones have realized they cant make paper out of it.  That is deadly.  The game has changed.

The dumb ones will still try ... and go broke to the smart ones.

Are you ready?

I don't think so.   Me either really...

In bold: that is, indeed, a salient point.
However, most of US citizens are used to banks (and brokerages) having their cash. Technically, once they have it, it' s their liability (at least in case of cash).
Assuming that banks (or similar org) would have to be involved (for now, i don't believe that there would be billions of accounts directly on ledger/trezor), then HOW we can both have a "your coin" situation, but yet have some economic activity directly sponsored by your btc (otherwise it's just a store of value like gold and pretty much nothing else)?

Perhaps, it will be all phone wallet based with borrowing that includes direct collateral. Like: "you want to borrow $1 mil of my bitcoin, then give me $1 mil of stable collateral plus 5% yearly divvy". For once, i think that fractional reserve practice would seize to exist at some point, driven in part by the desire of SLOWER (more sustainable) economic growth.

TL;DR Celcius and Voyager taught us NOT to release our keys to a third party, but how to organize lending WITHOUT giving your key to a third party is a challenge.
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August 13, 2022, 03:43:40 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)



Yes.. You make a lot of good points.  This is exactly what bitcoin was built for and surely, it is nice to see some BIGGER players coming to the table - and surely, your list is far from exhaustive, but it illustrates the points of quite disparate views and disparate approaches and even disparate resources.  Sure, some of them could start to cooperate with one another, but they might not perceive it to be in their interest - but still we know that there are some who are creating alliances too.. and even within the alliances, they might not agree to the way forward to accumulate their "physical" cornz.. and even some of the players might end up either dominating the other or getting screwed by the weaker player...

We know also that some of them are going to be playing the "down before up" game (and speculate that they have it in the bag), but I am not going to concede that they are going to be successful in that.. even if we have BIGGER players in 2022 than we had in early 2016.. remember early 2016?.. so many of the then BIGGER players (relatively-speaking) seem to have been thinking that for sure they could keep king daddy below $500 on a nearly infinite timeline.. and we see how that played out for some of those cocky "down before UP" betters.  hahahahaha  We saw those kinds of "down before up" presumptions in this thread too (and other forums for bitcoin discussions).

My list is certainly not exhaustive.  In fact, the African merchants?  I left them off...  Taiwanese wondering about the future?  They are not on there...  Germans realizing they are being fucked?  Not on my list.

Thing is everyone ends up on this list.

Matter of time.  Funny how the needy end up first.

And the meek shall inherit the Earth.
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August 13, 2022, 03:45:07 AM
Merited by Hueristic (1), AlcoHoDL (1), psycodad (1)

[edited out]
Exactly this ethereum is an organization of developers that at advancing the protocol. Basically forking the shit out of it. They are addressing scalability and the Web-3.0 components.

Bitcoin also has an organization of developers that are working on it but less active.

At the end of the day

Bitcoin = #1 store of value
Ethereum = #1 utility token

Combined they and a few stablecoins are all that are needed IMO

it's not Bitcoin vs ethereum. It's Bitcoin AND ethereum...
They should not be seen as competitors

Fuck ethereum.. that piece of crap... hardly even worth responding to your nonsensical attempt to make it seem as if it has some kind of value. .. beyond scamming normies.. and even scamming you by your trying to present it as if it were to have som value or ability to be mentioned in the same sentences as my lil precious.  Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes

World's largest asset manager BlackRock: Bitcoin "is the primary subject of interest from our clients" within crypto.
Source: Bitcoin Magazine.

Probably already mentioned but nice to read about : InvestAnswers Shows How BlackRock-Coinbase Partnership Could Send Bitcoin (BTC) To $773,000
Haha, I'm all for hopium but that number is ridiculous.
Anyway this is how they calculated it.
Quote

“If they add 5%, which is what Dan Tapiero says, I think it’s way too aggressive. Maybe over time, maybe in the next three to five years, that could be possible. That would take the price of Bitcoin to $773,000 in the next three to five years pretty easily.”

I doubt that we need to get into details of the matter, but it seems to me that $773k in five years is quite reasonable, and I am not even sure how to put odds on such a number at this particular time... because I have not really thought about how we even get out of our current pickle.. I have difficulties thinking about more than one thing at a time, sometimes.. hahahahaha

If you look at my numbers from last December, I had placed around 0.5% for getting to $1.5million in this last cycle, and at the same time, I had placed 2.5% odds for getting to supra $800k and 11.25% odds for getting to supra $650k, so I would think that with the passage of time, those odds should be going up rather than down.. and maybe even my probability assignments are not as high as the probability assignments coming ouf ot that article..

and, of course, our most recent cycle seems to have been playing out quite a bit differently than we had expected in terms of not really getting as much of a blow off top as expected and then so many damned contagions that ended up pushing the BTC price down a bit more than 20% lower than the 200-week moving average (at least so far), so anyhow whatever recovery is needed in our current BTC price dynamics, and the passage of time likely does cause some needs to adjust the probability assignments that I had previously placed on various upside scenarios.. and I would imagine that even if we have experienced some pretty decently negative recent BTC price actions, our bullish cases have not been completely removed, even if Blackrock may well be a wee bit premature in trying to proclaim high odds for $773k - but they control way more resources than yours truly (at least currently.. not that I am aspiring for much beyond my current supra 0.63BTC status.. which surely there can be a quite a bit of value in terms of both accumulating what you can, but accumulating an amount that you are able to hang onto.. .. which so far my supra 0.63 BTC status is much more manageable than some of our recently reckt twats in the space who had to be filing for bankrupcy because they failed to preserve more assets than they had debts (even though I am not even going to concede that the individual owners are still running a way with a lot of BTC because they were gambling with OPM.. you know.. OPM.. so many folks recommend using OPM>. those morally vacuous fucks.... 
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August 13, 2022, 04:04:51 AM


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August 13, 2022, 04:28:33 AM
Merited by El duderino_ (5), vapourminer (1), NotATether (1)

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Marathon, one of the biggest bitcoin mining dedicated companies in the U.S. and Canada, has mined the first OFAC compliant bitcoin block, only accepting transactions that comply with the directives of this government office. This has caused a stir in libertarian circles, that argue this can be the start of censorship in the bitcoin blockchain at a mining level.


https://news.bitcoin.com/marathon-mines-first-ofac-compliant-bitcoin-block/

What year is this?? That lasted full 24 days

Quote
"Marathon is committed to the core tenets of the Bitcoin community, including decentralization, inclusion, and no censorship," said Marathon's CEO Fred Thiel. "Over the coming week, we will be updating all our miners to the full standard Bitcoin core 0.21.1 node, including support for Taproot. By adopting the full standard Bitcoin core node, we will be validating transactions on the blockchain in the exact same way as all other miners who use the standard node."
https://bitcoinmagazine.com/business/marathon-to-stop-censoring-bitcoin-blocks

Personally I call bullshit on that.

If they're going to mine standard blocks it'll be more because they don't have enough people to maintain a monster-sized codebase with their own censorship additions AND fend off the security vulnerabilities all the while, rather than any change in morals they might have had.

I've been thinking one of these years, I start my own mining operation to offset any crap that Marathon runs on the network.


Nah it's neither morals nor technical, it's just about money. Try being competitive mining pool when you can only mine a subset of transactions that everybody else can. Like you you have to pass on a ton of well paying transactions and include scraps in your block just to see next miner pick them up and include in the next block on top of yours. Passing on financial incentives to someone else is never good for business
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August 13, 2022, 04:41:39 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)



https://twitter.com/stats_feed/status/1558305226725044224
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August 13, 2022, 04:59:40 AM
Merited by vapourminer (1), Hueristic (1), Gachapin (1)

[edited out}

I would say Saylor has highlighted some very key points here,  https://twitter.com/NeilJacobs/status/1553752187838382085.
Blockchain has a trilemma between scalability, decentralization and security. Bitcoin has scalability issues and that's a feature not a limitation (@JayJuanGee said so) but it's fully decentralized and secure.
If you are moving towards scalability ( that is making blockchain able to process more transactions)then you have to compromise on security and decentralization,  that's the case with ethereum.
You are right there is no competition between bitcoin and rest of the crypto world, since there aren't any coin that fulfils the criteria of cryptocurrency. These are my few satoshis.

Attributing some portion of what I said to your gobbledy-gook and foggy thinkenings does not seem to be a very reliable way forward.

I understand that a lot of folks will point out some kind of a limitation that bitcoin has and then suggest that another coin is better because it does not have the same limitation, and there are a lot of balances that are struck with bitcoin in terms of onchain transactions versus various kinds of ways that other layers are being developed that work for bitcoin, but if you talk about some other project, such as some piece of shit project like ethereum as if it were making similar kinds of tradeoffs, then you are likely just losing any concreteness that might have existed in any points that you seemed to have been trying to make.

If we just focus on something like bitcoin's blocksize limits and its transaction times, those have come up as issues, and there had even been actual spam attacks on bitcoin's base layer for a decent portion of late 2017 and early 2018 that ended up sparking lightning network into going live way before a lot of the main developers and and other influential folks in the bitcoin space wanted to happen.. which seemed to have had motivated (at least on the margins) a lot of the spam attacks from continuing to happen, but at the same time, there has been ongoing back and forth discussions in the bitcoin space regarding ideas of scaling as you go rather than making some kind of a change to the block size limits that would then contribute towards a lot of negative trade-offs in terms of giving space for spam attacks on the main chain to be potentially economical.

If we try to figure out what is going on with ethereum's proposed balancing of the various trilemma ideas that you set forward, we have hardly any fucking clue about what they are or what they are going to be because even they admit that they have a lot of problems with their current set up, so they are transitioning to some vague and amorphous bullshit thing that does not even seem to make sense on paper.. but still they seem to continue to have money flowing into such nonsense.. at least for the moment (ever heard of a ponzi scheme.. yeah, they work upon the principle of money flowing into them to keep them going.. and they surely seem to have that going for them if you can figure out what the fuck they are beyond mere descriptions and aspirations from whatever they supposedly are now to whatever they are supposedly moving towards).. and yeah, maybe you understand it WatChe, since you seem to be somewhat versed in goobledy-gook as a language.. and maybe as a lifestyle, too?... hahahahaha.

yup.

i can hodl while i sleep and still get its benefits. now ill admit its rough in the extreme both physically and mentally sometimes. like, i need to take a nap just typing about it..

but, im on it!

*stamina mode ON*

zzZZZZzzzzzzzzz

Poor widdo ting-a-lie!!!!

It's tough getting old...


You fart.


Remember Bawb said to wake him up once the price gets to $30k.. and he might be onto something.. I am always worried about prematuredly getting excited.. but $30k might be a sign that we are approaching the 100-week moving average [urlhttps://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/bitcoin-investor-tool/](which is currently at about $37k)[/url].. and surely we might not need to actually get above the 100-week moving average in order to start to feel some confidence that the bottom is actually in.

Many people will probably start to allocate before they fully understand what Bitcoin is, simply because key figures who they follow do.

Call me dumb.. but I don't feel like I am even close to fully understanding what bitcoin is, and sometimes my mind changes about various aspects of what I think bitcoin is.

I do have confidence that I have some angles of understanding about what bitcoin is that are better than some people who know other things about bitcoin that I don't really understand..     Sometimes I will hear a developer talking about some angle of bitcoin that I have hardly any clue about what they are talking about, and then when they start to talk about bitcoin's investment thesis or areas in which I feel that I spend a lot of time, then I might start to think.. wholey fuck, that person doesn't know some basic concepts that I know.

Oh there are some newbies to bitcoin, and they have podcasts, and maybe they have only been in a couple of years, sometimes they will present some bitcoin-related ideas that are quite out of my reach in terms of understanding, and other times, they will say things I consider to be dumb.  I bet that there are some folks in El Salvador who got into bitcoin in less than a year, and they know way more about lighting network than some of us who have been in bitcoin 8 years or more (including yours truly because I don't know too much of about actually using lightning network through personal experiences), and maybe some of those folks in El Salvador might be bullish as fuck about bitcoin but only have less than a 3rd grade education..

I think sometimes we might get too accustomed to the fact that so many people around us don't understand Bitcoin yet, and that we are still early.
That might leave us with a feeling that causes us to miscalculate the size of impact, when people finally catch on  ...or to miscalculate how quickly it can happen, once worldwide FOMO begins.  But things can escalate very quickly.

I cannot really disagree with anything you say here, and even some of the real world Gresham's law motivations might not really be apparent to some of us, even though there could be some bitcoin contagion that builds upon Gresham law motivations principles and some of the folks who are influenced by those kinds of sound money factors might not really realize why it is that they are getting some resonance in regards to bitcoin being better money than any other kinds of money out there... which as you say builds upon itself in a kind of snowballing gravitational way, even if the users might not really exactly know why they are being motivated in that direction.
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August 13, 2022, 05:04:51 AM


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August 13, 2022, 05:34:34 AM




Bitcoin holders realize they have Bitcoin


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August 13, 2022, 06:02:50 AM

Since @MicroStrategy adopted the Bitcoin Standard:

MSTR +185%, BTC +103%, GOOG +64%, AAPL +53%, ORCL +44%, MSFT +40%, S&P 500 +27%, NASDAQ +19%, IBM +10%, CRM -4%, AMZN -9%, GOLD -11%, BOND -14%, SILVER -28%, META -31%, SAP -40%, NFLX -48%

https://twitter.com/saylor/status/1558186316902400002
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Bitcoin holders realize they have Bitcoin

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Source: https://twitter.com/CHAIRFORCE_BTC/status/1557750726066987008?s=20&t=Q-NZekSkWl2ahZx3-H-kUg



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August 13, 2022, 06:32:57 AM

Personally I call bullshit on that.

If they're going to mine standard blocks it'll be more because they don't have enough people to maintain a monster-sized codebase with their own censorship additions AND fend off the security vulnerabilities all the while, rather than any change in morals they might have had.

I've been thinking one of these years, I start my own mining operation to offset any crap that Marathon runs on the network.


Nah it's neither morals nor technical, it's just about money. Try being competitive mining pool when you can only mine a subset of transactions that everybody else can. Like you you have to pass on a ton of well paying transactions and include scraps in your block just to see next miner pick them up and include in the next block on top of yours. Passing on financial incentives to someone else is never good for business

Exactly. OFAC was doomed from the start.
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In my country Big Mac is around 3.75$, after doing necessary currency conversion.
But yes it has gone up with time.
Between I m KFC lover and prefer Mighty Zinger over McDonald's burgers.
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August 13, 2022, 07:58:03 AM


It's the right time to start accumulating bitcoin as price is down too.
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