Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[OutOfMemory]

40 pages of WO later i'm finally back from family vacation.

Lol, things happen really fast at this corner, everyone is an observer of the wall.

After 10 days i'm happy that there are ONLY 40 pages to backread.
I've seen different times... 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

uliepooie the WE are is a humanity as one wholeness.. but some are not part of our humanity so.. i dunno ? 
Will the power-hungry lives be spared. Or will their thrones become electric chairs? See the non-believers by the path. Non-believers by the path..

The sinners' world is full of hate and copy paste

You are likely to be much better off to be attempting to hedge your bets and getting a stake into various outcomes rather than living in a world of theories that hardly even seem concrete without some skin in the game... .including but not exclusively establishing your DCA strategy into bitcoin..

Maybe start with $10 per week, you seemingly skeptical lil fuck?

I suppose that I am responding to readers of the thread who might take anything you have written seriously, since you seem like kind of a lost cause in terms of actually indicating that you are taking any actions rather than merely whining about what you believe is the state of the world.

"2x per year" trend seems invalidated. Oh well. It's still growing.

Can't you just shift it to some other convenient exponential variant?  How about 1.8x hahahaha.. and then later 1.5x.. but then many of us likely appreciate that  many new adoption curves (to the extent that prices are reflected therein) would likely have some kind of a curve rather than straight line, no?

As I see it one of the main problems with all the "models" *and* interpretation/expectation of models is they tend to be biased to various schelling points and oversimplification of formulas:

2x per year (has never actually happened exactly, right?)
The market cap of gold (why?),
Stock to flow (as if the only thing that matters is supply)
Some proprietary log curve or two (yeah... because it's a little complicated this simple formula will be righter!)
And my fav so far:  100k by the end of December! (TWO schelling points in one!)
Supercycle! (just picking on myself... based on greed, and sort of an anti-model really.)

Oh, and there is one more (for THIS list)... but this one is part of the holy choirbook, so people might not like to call it a broken model "The four year cycle".  This one is at least supported by some fairly strong design forces.  But it still only takes into account a limited number of extremely important things.  Ignoring completely things like the price of electricity, the proliferation of mining, the reaction of governments, and so on.  And I have to also point out that it has nothing to do with "four years" but we humans like to call it something we can easily relate to.

And ALL OF THIS exists in the extremely long shadow of the world macroeconomic condition and the strength of the worlds unit of account, the US DOLLAR.

Whatever your model... it will be instantly distorted by what happens with the mighty $$$.  And the price of important commodities like food and power in THAT asset.

And while we are on THAT topic... Food and Power.  We are currently watching an effort unfold by supragovernmental forces to take control of the food supply and energy creation in The Ukraine, The Netherlands, The Canada (I don't see why .ca can't have an article too!), The New Zealand, and so on.

In my opinion... gone are the simple days when we could predict shit, really.   But Bitcoin is still the best thing going for value storage, and most likely growth depending on your time horizon.

Have a nice Friday WO!

Maybe I should start with your ending comment first that involves ideas of previously being able to predict things shit?  Wake up cAPSLOCK!!!!!  We've never been able to predict shit, except after the shit has already happened, so it looks easy to have been able to predict things when we are looking into the past.

Second, you are like a lover and a hater of models at the same time, and you list the various deficiencies in the models by pointing out that the models do not account for all of the things, maybe not even the most important of things, yet at the same time we should be able to appreciate that it is quite likely that prediction models are attempting to focus on the most essential of things in order to attempt to both be able to focus on relevant influential factors and also by their very nature they are striving to get their prediction(s) correct.  Of course, we know that models cannot account for all of the things, and of course, we likely recognize that there are a variety of human freewill factors that actually end up changing histories trajectory and they are not even human free will factors that likely can be determined in advanced, even if you were to ask the individuals who did their thing.

I am surely not going to poo poo on models, because those models are likely trying their best, and they also likely serve as our best guide forwards whether we subscribe to model x, y or z and no matter how some of us might weigh their importance in different ways than others.  Even though I have not really given up on my describing stock to flow, four year fractal and exponential s-curve adoption based on Metcalfe principles and networking effects as the most influential of frameworks, I may well need to change aspects of my tune, too.. especially when we are seeming to be in strong current DOWNity BTC price pressures that may or may not continue to play out in the negative (but part of my definition of being in a bear market is that there is a need to grant slightly higher odds to down rather than to UP, even as we might still question whether $17,593 is going to be able to remain steadfast as our bottom for this cycle.. .. for sure we are within striking distance now, so it makes it more difficult to talk about the models in the same way that I had previously been discussing them, and surely there may well be some questions in regards if something(s) might need to be added or subtracted from my prior considerations of the models.. ..

Maybe I am like PlanB in the sense that I am still not going to give up on the more convincing of models and frameworks that I have historically considered, even if they are under challenge and even though there may well be some better models or factors that need to be taken into account to either supplement existing models or to help in the creation of new models.

Otherwise, what are we going to do?  Just throw up our hands and give up?  I personally believe that each of us is better off to have some kind of framework in which we attempt to see the world, even if we might end up getting our predictions wrong, but we are giving it our best boyscout attempts, and maybe learning along the way too, if we need to tweak or maybe if there is something within our preparations in which we might have to change our allocations, so instead of weighing Armageddon at less than 1%, we have to increase our allocation to 5-8% - which seems pretty dramatic, but some of our recent world changes have been pretty dramatic, too.. . and maybe some of us bitcoiners who had already been prepping with bitcoin feel a wee bit further ahead of the curve as compared to some of our normie friends and acquaintances who might seem to be going on with their lives as if there haven't been any kind of changes in the world that going to cause them to change, and maybe they are not really into preparing for Armageddon anyhow, so they just leave their Armageddon scenario preparations at 0%, even if push comes to shove, they will admit that they agree that Armageddon scenarios are more likely in recent times, but they cannot conceive of having much if any power in terms of whatever preparations that they need to make or if there might be anything that they can do to better prepare themselves for such Armageddon scenarios.

Since you had been talking out of both sides of your mouth in regards to whether models are good are bad, I doubt that I am saying much of anything different from you except maybe some of my matters end up getting framed differently from you in terms of my desire to assert that the models are still quite useful, even if they end up playing out wrongedly.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Hueristic]

40 pages of WO later i'm finally back from family vacation.
Just saying 

You picked the perfect time for a break.

Didn't miss a fucking thing.

[JayJuanGee]

Will the power-hungry lives be spared. Or will their thrones become electric chairs? See the non-believers by the path. Non-believers by the path..

I've been spiraling trough a black hole of links on youtube about : "How to prepare for WW3?"      

And I was thinking: And they think they can spent their BTCiTcoin in the next few years. LOL! They will lose everything trying to afford food & energy bills.          

Most people will have to hold BTCiTcoin for at least another 10 years till they can spend anything.      

When referring to "Most people" are you speaking for ur lil selfie?  Asking for a friend.

I would have bolded it, but you already bolded your whole post in order that we (royal that is) are able to see that the whole post is "important."

I still think that when the market reaches around $17k and people open long positions, So this time we will see one last unexpected dump which will cause BTC to reach $15k or $12k. During the journey of bitcoin from $18k to $25k, everyone thought that the market would go comfortably to $30k but during that time the rising wedge broke and according to this pattern it is not possible to return before $17k when BTC reaches $17k or $18k, it will be a better idea what is the mood of the market.

Your posts are starting to turn into dweeb posts, including strawman ascribing moon-boy status to members here who have been talking about upward BTC price movements that have likely similar odds of happening as your wishful-thinking DOWNity scenario that cannot even stop in terms of wishing for $17k and cannot resist including $12k to $15k in your propositions of inevitability.

It's not my wish, after looking at the chart, drawing a few lines, and looking at some news, I'm just stating things my little brain perceives. All of us say things by looking at the possibilities and if I have to say something now, I see bitcoin going to $22k because it has successfully retested the trendline by breaking it. The 200-4H moving average is currently at $22400. If BTC successfully breaks this, we could see Bitcoin at $25k and then even $30k.

You are pretty sporadic, no?

One minute you see that $17k is inevitable - and even high chances of $12k or $15k, and then a day or two later, you are all of a sudden talking about UPpity?  

Do you consider it helpful to be flip flopping so easily?  And, what do you think about us?  If you are just posting about how you feel from one minute to the next, then posting about those feelings would not be very reliable, would they?

Are you a betting man?

No, I don't like it.

I don't really care to bet either, yet part of my point was to attempt to highlight the fact that you had been stating DOWNity with such certainties, that you might well want to put your money where your mouth is.

People say all kinds of shit in a spur of the moment matter, but if they are not willing to back up their statements, then those statements should not be given very much weight.. .. and it is especially true when you had been presenting matters with such high levels of certainty.

Yeah, maybe I am just policing your language, but if you really do not mean that it is going down to $17k or to $15k or to $12k, then why are you saying it in this thread?

Shouldn't you say what you mean and mean what you say?   And, don't get me wrong because if you are just having a feeling, then maybe it is better to say that your feeling is not really based on anything except your feelings and some squiggly lines that you drew on a screen.

Just to let you know (or would that be Protip? there is no inevitable in bitcoin especially related to 15% more down merely because you and a bunch of reddit dweeb-twats are wishing for such down.

Likely one of the ONLY things inevitable in bitcoin is its volatility, and the inevitable aspect of bitcoin's volatility does not have a directional component - even if you are asserting such doom and gloom DOWNity BTC price matters as if they were certain when they might not even have odds that are much higher than 50%, especially since we have already been bouncing largely below the 200-Week moving average for more than 2.5 months..

The price has been above the 200-weekly moving average for almost two weeks but we saw a small dump when the daily candle broke below the 20 and 50 moving averages. Due to this, The BTC price could not maintain the support of the 200-weekly moving average so by the end of this week, it would be clearer what we should think about going forward as the support at $19K looks quite strong.

When I stated that the BTC price is "largely" below the 200-week moving average, I am not necessarily ignoring the fact that the BTC price had spent some time above the 200-week moving average, too.

I really have doubts whether getting caught up with short-term BTC price moves is really going to be very helpful regarding figuring out if we are going to stay in our consolidation range for a while or if we are going to break in one direction or another.. and you also seem to recognize that the BTC price had gotten up into the $25ks and then crashed back down to the $19ks, and sure that's about a 25% change in price, but given the whole context of where we are at, it seems that we are still just largely staying sufficiently close to our $17,593 local bottom in order that we are not yet ready to generate confidence about how likely it is that the bottom is in.. and o course, we remain still close to the bottom.. whether we are in the $19ks or even if we had gotten up to the $25ks, especially given the overall context of having such a severe correction below the 200-week moving average, and it still remains relevant that we are spending quite a bit of time below the 200-week moving average, even if you want to carve out some time in which we were not below the 200-week moving average, it comes off as a BIG SO WHAT? to me.

Have you heard about bitcoin-related factors, or do you believe bitcoin merely jumps whenever macro-factors bark such orders at it?  

Are you completely out of bitcoin at this time, Morningstarr?  Have you retained any cornz in case the price does not go in the direction nor to the degree that you expect it to go?

Hopefully the BTC portion of your portfolio is NOT reflective of the nonsense that you are spewing... Hey.. you might being correct in your prediction, but your confidence comes off as a wee bit out of touch with reality.

Supply and demand; yes I think that things like these affects prices for either short or long term. If it doesn't, I will have to change my mind, but it doesn't matter if I am proven right or wrong, either way, I will be satisfied that more dump is not possible from here and the good days of market have come.

It seems to me that one of the most inevitable matters in regards to bitcoin's short to medium-term price performance is that it is going to continue to be volatile, so yeah for sure, it is going to feel good when we can get out of these bottom areas, and then the question still will remain about how much distance from the bottom is enough in order to start to feel confident that the bottom is in and that we are likely to be moving up from here on out..

Surely, I don't claim to know how to know exactly when the bottom is in, but it would seem that getting above $30k and maybe even above $35k (or wherever the 100-week moving average will be at that time), would be helpful to buil confidence, but we even know that BTC price movements are a product of both quantity of movement but also we have to account for how much time it took to get there which also likely will reflect in how much volume was traded to get the price there, too.  I guess I am thinking that we do not really have much of a proper framework to be considering how much UPPity BTC price movement we are going to need before we have confidence that the bottom is in, since we are largely still floating in BTC price territories that are close to our current bottom so the bottom still seems to be the more relevant and immediate question rather than when we might be out of it.

In 1933, the manufacture, importation and sale of alcohol was still forbidden in the USA and had been for 13 years.  It would have taken many years for the brewing industry to recover after that so the price of illegal beer in that year can't be used to indicate the results of inflation today.  Also, fucking nobody on this side of the Atlantic ever bought 10 beer.  If you have 2 or 3 friends over to help you drink it, it can't be divided evenly which results in unnecessary arguments, feats of strength and ultimately fist fights over the last beer.  This is why it is sold conveniently in multiples of 6 or in kegs.  Only a barbarian would buy 10 beer; f&@#in' savages.

What kind of bastard would fight over a beer??

The same kind who would by a 10-pack, I imagine.

edit: or maybe hillbillies - https://www.newsflare.com/video/195920/hillbillies-fighting-over-one-beer

edit2: or random Canadian - https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/man-stabbed-outside-winnipeg-store-in-fight-over-beer-1.2623597

edit3: Americans - https://www.walb.com/story/16967190/fight-over-beer-sends-woman-to-hospital/

edit4: OMG even women - https://www.sunjournal.com/2007/09/07/woman-sentenced-killing-beer/

Looks like you have done your research on this important topic Homer.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[savetherainforest]

Will the power-hungry lives be spared. Or will their thrones become electric chairs? See the non-believers by the path. Non-believers by the path..

I've been spiraling trough a black hole of links on youtube about : "How to prepare for WW3?"      

And I was thinking: And they think they can spent their BTCiTcoin in the next few years. LOL! They will lose everything trying to afford food & energy bills.          

Most people will have to hold BTCiTcoin for at least another 10 years till they can spend anything.      

When referring to "Most people" are you speaking for ur lil selfie?  Asking for a friend.

Shush... u'r a dinosaur. We both have our 10 year anniversary! Soon...   

You always read things like a bot without consciousness.         .. Just calculate 10+ from the time they bought and don't be a pleb.               

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

40 pages of WO later i'm finally back from family vacation.

Lol, things happen really fast at this corner, everyone is an observer of the wall.

After 10 days i'm happy that there are ONLY 40 pages to backread.
I've seen different times...  

Yeah.. for sure.. something like 40 pages could happen in a couple of days if there is a lot of action.

I am a bit confused that they are actually going to release the MtGox coins on the same day that the scam coin (aka ethereum) is going to have its shitshow merge fork?  What could go wrong with that?

I think they are not going to pay any Bitcoin.
And I also think they will pay in their shit coin mtgox. And this will never recover the funds of people.
Like we have an example of LUNA airdrop.

Sure, we have been stalled for more than 8.5 years, and so there can be legitimate reasons to feel pessimistic about if MTGOX is ever going to pay, but to assert that "they are never going to pay" seems way too conspiratorial and detached from what is likely to happen.  

Sure, I understand that in the beginning there was a lot of reason to believe that matters would not be recovered, but there have been ongoing statements of progress and investigations and resolution of claims, and some of those things might seem crazy, but they are part of the process that exists in the Japanese jurisdiction, including that the Bancrupcy courts and even the trustee had some learnings along the way.. including some changes in some of their traditional practices - remember that there were both questions about whether GOX account holders were entitled to any of the money, and there were also questions about whether they should be paid in dollars or paid in bitcoin, so the owner (Karpeles) had to actually agree to keeping the bitcoin as bitcoin payments rather than liquidating the bitcoin and paying in dollars - which likely caused a lot of profits towards any of the claimants as compared with how any kind of a traditional bankrupcy would have been handled.  

Of course, the funds of account holders have been tied up for more than 8.5 years, but all of this could have turned out way worse.. the forced holder theory.. even though they are ONLY getting something like 15% (I cannot remember the exact number) the quantity of the BTC that they had held at the time of the closure.

It would be a very minority scenario if the account holders did not actually get paid.. to the extent that very many of them actually still exist in comparison to the ones who had sold their claims for seemingly pennies on the dollar.

Will the power-hungry lives be spared. Or will their thrones become electric chairs? See the non-believers by the path. Non-believers by the path..

I've been spiraling trough a black hole of links on youtube about : "How to prepare for WW3?"      

And I was thinking: And they think they can spent their BTCiTcoin in the next few years. LOL! They will lose everything trying to afford food & energy bills.          

Most people will have to hold BTCiTcoin for at least another 10 years till they can spend anything.      

When referring to "Most people" are you speaking for ur lil selfie?  Asking for a friend.

Shush... u'r a dinosaur. We both have our 10 year anniversary! Soon...    

Huh?  You act like we are married.  #nohomo

I have been registered on the forum for a bit over 8.5 years, and you have been registered on the forum for a little over 6 years.  Are you referring to that?  Or something else?

I will admit that I am close to 9 years in bitcoin (which will be in the end of November), so I cannot claim to being in bitcoin longer than 9 years - even though I did not come to bitcoin as a baby, so I had well over 25 years of managing my own personal finances and coming up with various investing, savings, budget projections and risk management strategies that I had been practicing, tweaking and building on since those earliest times, even though I believe that when I got into bitcoin, I ended up becoming quite a bit smarter about those ideas and a variety of other topics that I have learned in bitcoin in the past nearly 9 years.  I am not going to proclaim that I have learned all of the things - even though some kinds of basic mistakes many of us continue to see repeated through time spent participating in this thread, and sometimes I wonder if I should retire and move on from participating in this thread... because there are quite a few repeated themes. that maybe I might not be being helpful in terms of these "sharing" matters.

You always read things like a bot without consciousness.        .. Just calculate 10+ from the time they bought and don't be a pleb.            

Horey Sheeeeitttt!!!  

Now I feel dumb - being lectured by one of the known dumbest peeps (#justsaying) here.  Whoaza..?   And, you might even be correct this time?

What a world.  What a world.  

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Hamza2424]

Source: https://twitter.com/bestbitcoinmeme/status/1565662821865734148?t=qpG_x8pwvF4qdQu9z3_Gkw&s=19

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[nanobtc]

 Jay, try the de-caf? just a suggestion.

[TrustedBitcoiner]

the world is fucked up.... nothing has ever been more clear.
magic internet money?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[TrustedBitcoiner]

Anyone going to give option to buy sub 10K  

cant fucking wait. 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation