Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Out of mind]

This is the first time in history the common man can still front-run trillionaires; But make no mistake, the window of great opportunity might start closing soon. BTCBitcoin
https://twitter.com/VandelayBTC/status/1670859568128172033?t=QW4Yleaegjiw2w1kxvg8IA&s=19

[1714246334]

1714246334

[philipma1957]

I wonder what kind of stuff members would be doing with btc at $500K (10 tril)?
Make plans? Too early? 30 mo is just 2.5 years.

one step at a time bro

a new ATH at 70k next year
maybe 100k gets topped next year.



oh hats off to buddy 28k!

I was actually responding to the post by @OgNasty (without quoting it directly).
I can keep up the idea of both 70-100K next year and 500K in 30 mo in my head simultaneously, especially if it would result in the lack of premature selling at 70K, lol.

If we get to 70k and I am alive I am selling some. Not much but some.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Hueristic]

No, he got them from a Mt. Gox withdraw bug and he didnt sell because transparent ledger.

And he is in jail for it right now.

I thought it was Silk Road?

Or maybe I’m getting bitcoin theft stories mixed up. So many of them.

https://www.wired.com/story/silk-road-bitcoin-seizure-james-zhong/

Hah, woops looks like my memory is really failing fast. was too lazy to check, thx for the correction.

[JayJuanGee]

Well, I don't know how you are getting your BTC.  There are ways to set BTC buy orders in advance so that you do not have to worry about if you have enough, and there are ways to DCA on a regular basis in order that you more or less feel prepared for UP in the event that UP ends up happening.

So many folks get too greedy and they believe that buying on the dip (and lump sum buying practices that are largely tied to buying on the dip ideas) is preferrable to DCA, and then they end up fucking around too much trying to guess the price when they likely should be realizing that if they do not have very many coins, and they are not even close to fuck you status, then it is better to not get too greedy and better not to be fucking around and waiting for lower BTC prices that may well not end up happening.

You are not the only one.. waiting for sub $12k that is likely not to happen, even though people hope for such and they spend so much time preparing their lil selfies for DOWNity that contributes towards their failure/refusal to sufficiently/adequately prepare for UP (that may or may not happen), but it hurts when UP happens and preparation for it has not sufficiently taken place.

I buy (and sometimes sell) using P2P exchanges.  I can only assume that informed Americans are doing the same.

I've been mining (a little) and buying (and sometimes selling,) for several years, so my average cost is well below zero.  It's all about the Dollar Cost Average.

People do all kinds of things in terms of figuring out how much BTC to buy, how to buy it and how to store it, if they end up buying it, and surely I find it awkward to suggest that there is any kind of "informed American" (if you are referring to their being informed about bitcoin) because bitcoin adoption remains quite low, and I doubt that we are ONLY addressing bitcoiners who happen to know how to get their bitcoin and how to hold their bitcoin, because even people who participate in this thread may well be trying to figure out how to get their bitcoin or the extent to which they might need to change their bitcoin acquisition strategies -

...so I am not even going to presume that regulars of this thread have enough bitcoin, know how to get it and know how to store their bitcoin in ways that give them options.. for example, having some bitcoin on hardware wallets (perhaps not ledger, but some guys here have their coins on ledgers), having some software wallets, maybe learning about and using lightning network, perhaps using some exchanges, and surely even some guys have third parties holding their BTC whether that is GBTC or some other ways that they consider part of their bitcoin exposure to be through third parties holding their coins (is it really their coins?).

Even on a personal level, sometimes I am changing some of what I do, and sometimes I don't even want to provide all of the details, in terms of securing some semblance of OP Sec.

Maybe your own representation of having costs below $0 per bitcoin might show that you have not bought enough bitcoin, but hey, I understand that people who earn through bitcoin, whether mining or otherwise, go through their own perverted frames regarding the extent to which they believe that they have enough coins.. and sure maybe I read you wrong, when you were suggesting some kind of anxiety for not having had accumulated enough BTC when the BTC price dropped into the low $25ks- and even sub $25k, if you had not noticed.

Some of us have some what automated ways to buy BTC on the dip, and yeah maybe those are not great ways to be buying BTC, especially dealing with some exchanges - even if we may well be moving coins off of exchanges on a regular basis.   I used to have way more coins on exchanges, and little by little I shrunk down my exposure towards having coins on exchanges, even though I still have some coins on exchanges (it seems like less than 5% of my total BTC holdings)..and so I did used to make manual buys/sells but I have found it a bit less burdensome to mostly set them in advance, even though from time to time, I do have to restructure and to manage those, too.... and I still have not found some better or more automated way to make myself comfortable with such a process, even though there had been some personal aspiration that I would considerably increase my buy/sell spreads and increments - however, I think that Bitcoin's volatility since May-2022-ish had contributed towards my feeling that I needed to engage in a bit more active management, and maybe I have not really distanced myself from such active management, even though I do still tend to allow the price to come to my orders rather than spot buying or spot selling or even engaging in that kind of activity.. but I suppose that if I were to make some kind of a large purchase using BTC or even fiat that is inside of my BTC trading accounts, then maybe I might feel that I need to adjust my buy/sell orders (and strategies) in order to attempt to account for some large purchase that I might have had ended up making..

i was reading this thread from starting (just for fun),
i seen users which are  the lucky early adopters and they are now millionaires, even billionaires now.

It must be your imagination.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[philipma1957]

O/T

Article from 2020
OceanGate raises $18M to build a bigger submersible fleet and set up Titanic trips
https://www.geekwire.com/2020/oceangate-raises-18m-build-bigger-submersible-fleet-get-set-titanic-trips/

OceanGate will take advantage of lessons learned during the construction of its carbon-hulled Titan submersible, which was originally built for Titanic journeys. Rush said tests that were conducted at the Deep Ocean Test Facility in Annapolis, Md., revealed that the Titan’s hull “showed signs of cyclic fatigue.” As a result, the hull’s depth rating was reduced to 3,000 meters.

“Not enough to get to the Titanic,” Rush said.

That meant the Titanic trips — which had been planned at first for 2018, then 2019, then 2020 — had to be put off until mid-2021. By that time, Rush expects the new submersibles to be ready to enter service. He said mission specialists who have paid more than $100,000 each to participate in the Titanic expeditions were “generally supportive but disappointed” by the delay.

It takes 2 1/2 hrs to reach the 3,800 metre depth where the Titanic lies.
Comms were lost 1 hour 45 mins into the dive.
So the sub would have been around 2,700 metre depth. Very close to that 3,000 metre maximum depth rating!

The fact that the 2021 and 2022 (one in each year) Titan expeditions went well seems to be just dumb luck.

The last expedition to the wreck of the Titanic with a sub that had the proper depth rating was in 2019 (a sub called Limiting Factor - which is rated at 11km! depth).
The Mir submersibles used by James Cameron 33 times had a rating of 6km.

There were never new subs built by OceanGate, it appears to have tried to patch up the original Titan and make do with that.
Stockton Rush appears to be was a complete idiot and a murderer.

4 eye rolls for the other passengers / pilot. RIP.

 

I read the Titan is rated to 4,000 meters.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/missing-submersible-how-deep-1.6882739


I found the 4000 meter number in three articles can’t find 3,000 meters in any articles so far.




Back on point we got above 29k for a spilt minute or so.

Pushing it at 28777 maybe we crest and stay over 29k by the morning

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Richy_T]

It takes 2 1/2 hrs to reach the 3,800 metre depth where the Titanic lies.
Comms were lost 1 hour 45 mins into the dive.
So the sub would have been around 2,700 metre depth. Very close to that 3,000 metre maximum depth rating!

The fact that the 2021 and 2022 (one in each year) Titan expeditions went well seems to be just dumb luck.

The last expedition to the wreck of the Titanic with a sub that had the proper depth rating was in 2019 (a sub called Limiting Factor - which is rated at 11km! depth).
The Mir submersibles used by James Cameron 33 times had a rating of 6km.

There were never new subs built by OceanGate, it appears to have tried to patch up the original Titan and make do with that.
Stockton Rush appears to be was a complete idiot and a murderer.

4 eye rolls for the other passengers / pilot. RIP.

 

Suggests maybe they were running out of money and decided to take their chances.

If they were only running one mission a year, that's definitely not enough to convince me. That's "we're still in the experimental phase" shit.

[Subbir]

but I suppose that if I were to make some kind of a large purchase using BTC or even fiat that is inside of my BTC trading accounts, then maybe I might feel that I need to adjust my buy/sell orders (and strategies) in order to attempt to account for some large purchase that I might have had ended up making..

Well I agree with your opinion, I think if you can specifically analyze you have a deep knowledge about Bitcoin, but with the current market conditions, it is natural that there are many people who would have the opposite opinion, because many people think that when some negative news comes out, the price of Bitcoin will go down. will go and they will have a new opportunity to invest more. It can be the case of any other token or coin but if we talk about Bitcoin only then it can be said that Bitcoin is not very easily manipulated. Because Bitcoin is ready to hold its position.

Secondly, I think it is better not to limit to just trading because when some bad times come, many will hesitate, and when one hesitates, the long term plan will be lost.

[JayJuanGee]

You sound like a low coiner or a no coiner.

I guess it was predictable already. People from a 3rd world country wearing a signature must be a low coiner. You might think that. I don't mind that 

I responded based on the words of your post, and I did not assume where you were from - even though now you are disclosing that you are from a third world country.

We might not know what is going to happen, but we have some pretty good ideas about bitcoin's likely direction.. even if we might not know details in terms of either price or time.. especially trying to pinpoint specifics -

Bitcoin sometimes followed previous patterns and sometimes did not. We have seen price hikes after each halving so we expect the same after the upcoming halving as well. But, we never know if it will happen exactly after the halving or not. It might take a few months or so. Maybe a year?

Well, hopefully whatever you are doing in terms of your bitcoin investment is not reliant on the price shooting up.. because it may or may not shoot up..

Yet, in your previous post, it sounded to me that you were preparing for down rather than up, and likely it is necessary to prepare for either down or up.. because we cannot be sure which direction dee cornz is going to go in the short term, and even that we could have a lot of uncertainty for many years into the future.

Those who ongoingly continue to fail/refuse to prepare for UP.. are more likely going to end up having to come into bitcoin at higher prices (than today's price) rather than being able to get in at lower (or even the same) prices.

Good luck is you are either failing/refusing to stack sats in order to prepare for UP (just in case), rather than waiting for some kind of divine signal that is not likely to get any more clear than it already is.. for those who are ongoingly insisting that "nobody knows." .. .and nobody knew in 2011, 2014, 2017, 2019.. .but those who took actions to stack sats during those times (and who continued to stack sats and who have not gotten shaken out of the sats that they had stacked between then and now), are likely in pretty damned decent shape right now, whether we are referring to finances and/or psychology.

FYI, I have a portion of Bitcoin in my wallet. I won't say I am holding tight like a pro-holder. But, I don't have a plan to sell it anytime soon unless I need some urgent cash. Moreover, I have some sats in a time-locked wallet generated using https://coinb.in/.
[/quote]

Hopefully you are not overly complicating your set up... it is not for me to say how you should hold your coins, and whether you need to keep some coins cold storage and some hot, and the time lock adds an additional level of complexity that may or may not be necessary - even though I know some people are contemplating uses of time locks for inheritance purposes and even for security purposes, and so far I have not been so brave as to experiment with any kind of time lock set up or come to see that it might be a good idea for me..

i was reading this thread from starting (just for fun),
i seen users which are  the lucky early adopters and they are now millionaires, even billionaires now.

Lucky? Some call it foresight.

Patience has a lot to do with it too.

  Without even considering the temptation for many to buy pizza and lambos with their bitcoin on the way up, there was much adversity for early adopters to wade through.  Luck was not an option and sadly, many did not make through unscathed.  I'm glad for the few stalwarts in this thread who were like pillars of support and advice and also for those who were the exact opposite who provided excellent examples of how not to proceed.  I'm not going to name names - you know who you are (not all are still active) and I thank you.

Exactly a variety of scenarios, some guys building their stacks, some guys consuming part of their stacks, and surely there is nothing wrong with hookers, lambo and blow as long as you might realize that you don't want to spend all of your cornz all at once.. which surely there have been some guys who got some short term time preferences, and ended up spending way too many coins too early.

We cannot necessarily presume that guys and gals who participated then and who are still participating have disclosed very much of their BTC accumulating  and/or holding strategies.. even though sometimes we might get some ideas about some of the strategies that might give us some ideas in relation to how close their hypotheticals might relate to their own circumstances or to circumstances that they wished to be or circumstances that they know their "friend" to be.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Learn Bitcoin]

I responded based on the words of your post, and I did not assume where you were from - even though now you are disclosing that you are from a third world country.

It's no secret, to be honest. Everyone can see this from my post history since 30% of my posts are on my local board Thread.

We might not know what is going to happen, but we have some pretty good ideas about bitcoin's likely direction.. even if we might not know details in terms of either price or time.. especially trying to pinpoint specifics -

Bitcoin sometimes followed previous patterns and sometimes did not. We have seen price hikes after each halving so we expect the same after the upcoming halving as well. But, we never know if it will happen exactly after the halving or not. It might take a few months or so. Maybe a year?

Well, hopefully whatever you are doing in terms of your bitcoin investment is not reliant on the price shooting up.. because it may or may not shoot up..

Yet, in your previous post, it sounded to me that you were preparing for down rather than up, and likely it is necessary to prepare for either down or up.. because we cannot be sure which direction dee cornz is going to go in the short term, and even that we could have a lot of uncertainty for many years into the future.

Let's say it this way. I am bullish but I don't want to expect too much from Bitcoin in the short term. Because if I expect too much and Bitcoin doesn't fulfill my expectations, I might be frustrated with that. I am not expecting to happen anything overnight. Even though I have a small portion (compared to most of you guys) of Bitcoin, I still consider myself Bitcoiner. I use altcoins too for various purposes. But, Bitcoin is the only coin that I consider an asset. I hope my standing is clear enough

[JayJuanGee]

I wonder what kind of stuff members would be doing with btc at $500K (10 tril)?
Make plans? Too early? 30 mo is just 2.5 years.

one step at a time bro

a new ATH at 70k next year
maybe 100k gets topped next year.

oh hats off to buddy 28k!

I was actually responding to the post by @OgNasty (without quoting it directly).
I can keep up the idea of both 70-100K next year and 500K in 30 mo in my head simultaneously, especially if it would result in the lack of premature selling at 70K, lol.

OGs do not sell much, if any, cornz within the deadman's zone (do any of uie-pooies need to know what is the deadman's zone?).

Justsaying.

Normies, on the other hand.. are not very smart.. so they do have a wee bit of a tendency to sell der cornz within the deadman's zone.. which tends to not play out very well for them.

[Learn Bitcoin]

(do any of uie-pooies need to know what is the deadman's zone?).

The dead man zone is the area directly around a bushfire that is likely to burn within five minutes given the current wind conditions or an anticipated change in wind direction. The distance this zone extends from the firefront is highly dependent on terrain, windspeed, fuel type and composition, relative humidity and ambient temperature, and can range from under 100 metres (330 ft) to well over 1 kilometre (3,300 ft).[1]

 

Now please explain the WO version of Deadman's zone.

[JayJuanGee]

By the way,..... I would like to mention:

Some of you may know that a bit over a week ago, Binance US had stated that it may lose its banking services, so it suggested that either people withdraw their USD or convert them over to USDT.

I converted all mine over to USDT and then re-established my buy/sell orders on Binance US as part of the BTC/USDT pair, and so it was a bit strange that about 3.5 hours ago (calculated from the time of this post), I was waiting for my sell order at $28,900 to fill, and then all of a sudden all of my orders filled from $28,900 all the way up to $129,400... .. and there was some kind of a fat finger or something, and then the price moved back down to $28,800-ish... so I bought back all the BTC that I had sold (plus a little extra), and reset my BTC sell orders and also ended up with some extra USDT out of the deal, too.. ..  I don't really want to disclose the amounts, but it surely adds up... and I have not exactly added it up.. I suppose that I could do some math at some point.

I would have had my BTC sell orders (with the USDT pair) up to $150k; however, at the time that I set my orders (maybe a week and a half ago), their system did not allow me to set sell orders higher than $130k... but this fat finger, or whatever it was, had ended up buying bitcoin all the way up to $138k. .. When I just reset my sell orders, it allowed me to set them up to $145k... so usually those kinds of fat fingers do not happen twice, even though sometimes some variation of them can happen when the order books get cleared out like that.. or who knows what caused such a thing?

The market and the orders on Binance US's BTC/USDT pair seem to be working normally now, and it is difficult to know what caused such a spurt in the price.. whether a bug, a fat finger, or just very illiquid markets.. or even manipulation?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[hisslyness]

By the way,..... I would like to mention:

Some of you may know that a bit over a week ago, Binance US had stated that it may lose its banking services, so it suggested that either people withdraw their USD or convert them over to USDT.

I converted all mine over to USDT and then re-established my buy/sell orders on Binance US as part of the BTC/USDT pair, and so it was a bit strange that about 3.5 hours ago (calculated from the time of this post), I was waiting for my sell order at $28,900 to fill, and then all of a sudden all of my orders filled from $28,900 all the way up to $129,400... .. and there was some kind of a fat finger or something, and then the price moved back down to $28,800-ish... so I bought back all the BTC that I had sold (plus a little extra), and reset my BTC sell orders and also ended up with some extra USDT out of the deal, too.. ..  I don't really want to disclose the amounts, but it surely adds up... and I have not exactly added it up.. I suppose that I could do some math at some point.

I would have had my BTC sell orders (with the USDT pair) up to $150k; however, at the time that I set my orders (maybe a week and a half ago), their system did not allow me to set sell orders higher than $130k... but this fat finger, or whatever it was, had ended up buying bitcoin all the way up to $138k. .. When I just reset my sell orders, it allowed me to set them up to $145k... so usually those kinds of fat fingers do not happen twice, even though sometimes some variation of them can happen when the order books get cleared out like that.. or who knows what caused such a thing?

The market and the orders on Binance US's BTC/USDT pair seem to be working normally now, and it is difficult to know what caused such a spurt in the price.. whether a bug, a fat finger, or just very illiquid markets.. or even manipulation?

It is difficult to conclude without knowing the amount of Bitcoin, but i do hope it was significant amount for you! I mean we do see flash crashes every now and then, why not the opposite...

[machasm]

By the way,..... I would like to mention:

Some of you may know that a bit over a week ago, Binance US had stated that it may lose its banking services, so it suggested that either people withdraw their USD or convert them over to USDT.

I converted all mine over to USDT and then re-established my buy/sell orders on Binance US as part of the BTC/USDT pair, and so it was a bit strange that about 3.5 hours ago (calculated from the time of this post), I was waiting for my sell order at $28,900 to fill, and then all of a sudden all of my orders filled from $28,900 all the way up to $129,400... .. and there was some kind of a fat finger or something, and then the price moved back down to $28,800-ish... so I bought back all the BTC that I had sold (plus a little extra), and reset my BTC sell orders and also ended up with some extra USDT out of the deal, too.. ..  I don't really want to disclose the amounts, but it surely adds up... and I have not exactly added it up.. I suppose that I could do some math at some point.

I would have had my BTC sell orders (with the USDT pair) up to $150k; however, at the time that I set my orders (maybe a week and a half ago), their system did not allow me to set sell orders higher than $130k... but this fat finger, or whatever it was, had ended up buying bitcoin all the way up to $138k. .. When I just reset my sell orders, it allowed me to set them up to $145k... so usually those kinds of fat fingers do not happen twice, even though sometimes some variation of them can happen when the order books get cleared out like that.. or who knows what caused such a thing?

The market and the orders on Binance US's BTC/USDT pair seem to be working normally now, and it is difficult to know what caused such a spurt in the price.. whether a bug, a fat finger, or just very illiquid markets.. or even manipulation?

Nice one JJG