Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Bronstad]

This day in Bitcoin price history:

April 24th, 2011 : 1BTC = $1.7
April 24th, 2012 : 1BTC = $5.10     (+300% from 2011)
April 24th, 2013 : 1BTC = $154.20  (+3024% from 2012, +9070% from 2011)
April 24th, 2014 : 1BTC = $485.00  (+314% from 2013, +9510% from 2012, +28529% from 2011)

Hey there hodler, that's a mighty big percentage you got there.

[Mervyn_Pumpkinhead]

Why would the mtgox news cause a price increase? It's basically the worst possible outcome - mtgox isn't coming back and 200,000 coins are being liquidated into cash.

Check out the thread I started in Bitcoin Discussion, apparently it should have no effect at all and in fact should cause an increase in price due to people receiving their compensation and buying BTC with it...

+1-1=0

what is really exciting about the liquidation is that some big investors that are not confident dealing with unregulated exchanges might bid the price higher than market (if coins are auctioned). that would be HUGE and speculators would have a field day.

It would be extremely smart to buy 200k coins over the market price, during an downward trend and while there is no information whatsoever about the fate of the remaining 600k missing coins.
I think that somekind of an award should be given for this investment decision.

yeah it would, just you try buying 200k coins at market price....... (not gonna happen) keep in mind that large investor money is not on the exchanges because they cannot be trusted.

You wouldn't buy something over the market price, that's value is dropping and there is no certainty about the future. It would be an very bad investment decision.

I strongly agree with the last part! But remember that the exchanges are also giving monetary value to bitcoin. Without the exchanges, bitcoin wouldn't have value and would just be a fun play money. And if the exchanges can't be trusted, then the value of bitcoin can't be trusted. That is why the price is dropping, because of the loss of trust from the general public, and people don't want to buy something that is very fragile in keeping value. The 600k missing goxcoins + all the coins from the past that have been stolen or scammed, are making bitcoin an very dangerous investment. There is always a possibility in the air that the price could drop to single digits or less in a matter of hours, and there is no way of managing this risk.

so you are a large investor, and you want 200k bitcoins. somebody else bids $500 at market price. are you going to let those coins get away? or that's ok, just place a 200k buy order at bitstamp @500? if somebody else bids market price for those coins, chances are that's the last shot you will EVER have at buying 200k coins. maybe you should bid $550.

lol, yes. Smart investing isn't about rising your bids because someone else seems to want them also. You calculate a number that is right for you and you stick with it. Smart investors aren't these crazed coin hungry fools that you see on this forum

The point is that bitcoin currently isn't an attractive opportunity. It's a high-risk low-reward investment, so it's a no-no to anyone who has experience with investments. If someone would decide to roll the dice and buy in, then it would be way below market price to make the risk worth while.

[ElectricMucus]

so you are a large investor, and you want 200k bitcoins.

why? sorry you lost me here.

no, you are not a large investor. large investors are forward looking.

Do you know what's investment actually means?

[chessnut]

so you are a large investor, and you want 200k bitcoins.

why? sorry you lost me here.

no, you are not a large investor. large investors are forward looking.

Do you know what's investment actually means?

"In finance, investment is putting money into an asset with the expectation of capital appreciation, dividends, and/or interest earnings. This may or may not be backed by research and analysis. Most or all forms of investment involve some form of risk, such as investment in equities, property, and even fixed interest securities which are subject, among other things, to inflation risk. It is indispensable for project investors to identify and manage the risks related to the investment."

[ElectricMucus]

hint, actually it's related to lending money.

[billyjoeallen]

Why would the mtgox news cause a price increase? It's basically the worst possible outcome - mtgox isn't coming back and 200,000 coins are being liquidated into cash.

Check out the thread I started in Bitcoin Discussion, apparently it should have no effect at all and in fact should cause an increase in price due to people receiving their compensation and buying BTC with it...

+1-1=0

what is really exciting about the liquidation is that some big investors that are not confident dealing with unregulated exchanges might bid the price higher than market (if coins are auctioned). that would be HUGE and speculators would have a field day.

It would be extremely smart to buy 200k coins over the market price, during an downward trend and while there is no information whatsoever about the fate of the remaining 600k missing coins.
I think that somekind of an award should be given for this investment decision.

yeah it would, just you try buying 200k coins at market price....... (not gonna happen) keep in mind that large investor money is not on the exchanges because they cannot be trusted.

You wouldn't buy something over the market price, that's value is dropping and there is no certainty about the future. It would be an very bad investment decision.

I strongly agree with the last part! But remember that the exchanges are also giving monetary value to bitcoin. Without the exchanges, bitcoin wouldn't have value and would just be a fun play money. And if the exchanges can't be trusted, then the value of bitcoin can't be trusted. That is why the price is dropping, because of the loss of trust from the general public, and people don't want to buy something that is very fragile in keeping value. The 600k missing goxcoins + all the coins from the past that have been stolen or scammed, are making bitcoin an very dangerous investment. There is always a possibility in the air that the price could drop to single digits or less in a matter of hours, and there is no way of managing this risk.

so you are a large investor, and you want 200k bitcoins. somebody else bids $500 at market price. are you going to let those coins get away? or that's ok, just place a 200k buy order at bitstamp @500? if somebody else bids market price for those coins, chances are that's the last shot you will EVER have at buying 200k coins. maybe you should bid $550.

If I was a large investor, I would attempt to contact as many large holders and miners as I could and go price shopping. I would attempt to get sellers to bid against each other. I have had more than one person contact me with offers to buy a big chunk of my stash, none of them have ever offered more than market value. Prices offered ranged from ~20% under market to about half price.

[hdbuck]

This day in Bitcoin price history:

April 24th, 2011 : 1BTC = $1.7
April 24th, 2012 : 1BTC = $5.10     (+300% from 2011)
April 24th, 2013 : 1BTC = $154.20  (+3024% from 2012, +9070% from 2011)
April 24th, 2014 : 1BTC = $485.00  (+314% from 2013, +9510% from 2012, +28529% from 2011)

Hey there hodler, that's a mighty big percentage you got there.

feels like the train has been long gone.

[TERA]

This day in Bitcoin price history:

April 24th, 2011 : 1BTC = $1.7
April 24th, 2012 : 1BTC = $5.10     (+300% from 2011)
April 24th, 2013 : 1BTC = $154.20  (+3024% from 2012, +9070% from 2011)
April 24th, 2014 : 1BTC = $485.00  (+314% from 2013, +9510% from 2012, +28529% from 2011)

Hey there hodler, that's a mighty big percentage you got there.

It looks overbought.

[chessnut]

lol, yes. Smart investing isn't about rising your bids because someone else seems to want them also. You calculate a number that is right for you and you stick with it. Smart investors aren't these crazed coin hungry fools that you see on this forum

The point is that bitcoin currently isn't an attractive opportunity. It's a high-risk low-reward investment, so it's a no-no to anyone who has experience with investments. If someone would decide to roll the dice and buy in, then it would be way below market price to make the risk worth while.

what? we have some fundamental disagreements there.

you are wrong. bidding happens. it is a necessity of the market. if the coins are auctioned, investors will bid for them. fact. those investors will know that they will have no easier way to buy 200k coins without slippage ever again.

[seldon]

This day in Bitcoin price history:

April 24th, 2011 : 1BTC = $1.7
April 24th, 2012 : 1BTC = $5.10     (+300% from 2011)
April 24th, 2013 : 1BTC = $154.20  (+3024% from 2012, +9070% from 2011)
April 24th, 2014 : 1BTC = $485.00  (+314% from 2013, +9510% from 2012, +28529% from 2011)

Hey there hodler, that's a mighty big percentage you got there.

feels like the train has been long gone.

Is what people thought exactly one year ago.

[Bronstad]

This day in Bitcoin price history:

April 24th, 2011 : 1BTC = $1.7
April 24th, 2012 : 1BTC = $5.10     (+300% from 2011)
April 24th, 2013 : 1BTC = $154.20  (+3024% from 2012, +9070% from 2011)
April 24th, 2014 : 1BTC = $485.00  (+314% from 2013, +9510% from 2012, +28529% from 2011)

Hey there hodler, that's a mighty big percentage you got there.

It looks overbought.

Is what people thought exactly one year ago.

[ZephramC]

This day in Bitcoin price history:

April 24th, 2011 : 1BTC = $1.7
April 24th, 2012 : 1BTC = $5.10     (+300% from 2011)
April 24th, 2013 : 1BTC = $154.20  (+3024% from 2012, +9070% from 2011)
April 24th, 2014 : 1BTC = $485.00  (+314% from 2013, +9510% from 2012, +28529% from 2011)

Hey there hodler, that's a mighty big percentage you got there.

feels like the train has been long gone.

Is what people thought exactly one year ago.

And they will be thinking the same in 2015, in 2016 and in 2040 too.

[infofront]

This day in Bitcoin price history:

April 24th, 2011 : 1BTC = $1.7
April 24th, 2012 : 1BTC = $5.10     (+300% from 2011)
April 24th, 2013 : 1BTC = $154.20  (+3024% from 2012, +9070% from 2011)
April 24th, 2014 : 1BTC = $485.00  (+314% from 2013, +9510% from 2012, +28529% from 2011)

Hey there hodler, that's a mighty big percentage you got there.

feels like the train has been long gone.

Is what people thought exactly one year ago.

People were saying that back in 2011 when we reached the almost unfathomable (at the time) ATH of $33, and began declining.

[TERA]

I just bet on black and won 5 times in a row. That means it will happen a 6th time for sure.

[dreamspark]

I just bet on black and won 5 times in a row. That means it will happen a 6th time for sure.

This never makes any sense though, Bitcoin price going up or down is not a 50-50 bet. You would wager that with increased adoption and services, as well as infrastructure and vc investment your odds are way better than 50-50. Not a gurantee but more likely than not, no?

[TERA]

I just bet on black and won 5 times in a row. That means it will happen a 6th time for sure.

This never makes any sense though, Bitcoin price going up or down is not a 50-50 bet. You would wager that with increased adoption and services, as well as infrastructure and vc investment your odds are way better than 50-50. Not a gurantee but more likely than not, no?

The odds distribution is not the point - it's the use of patterns.  Adoption is a potentially valid argument for an increase,  but the increases in the past are not. I should have found a better analogy.

[Cassius]

This day in Bitcoin price history:

April 24th, 2011 : 1BTC = $1.7
April 24th, 2012 : 1BTC = $5.10     (+300% from 2011)
April 24th, 2013 : 1BTC = $154.20  (+3024% from 2012, +9070% from 2011)
April 24th, 2014 : 1BTC = $485.00  (+314% from 2013, +9510% from 2012, +28529% from 2011)

Hey there hodler, that's a mighty big percentage you got there.

It looks overbought.

So, opinions on what merely 'bought' looks like at this point in bitcoin's history?

[roslinpl]

Watching charts from a morning time and waiting for some ++% ...

Till now nothing special to see...

[chessnut]

I just bet on black and won 5 times in a row. That means it will happen a 6th time for sure.

This never makes any sense though, Bitcoin price going up or down is not a 50-50 bet. You would wager that with increased adoption and services, as well as infrastructure and vc investment your odds are way better than 50-50. Not a gurantee but more likely than not, no?

The odds distribution is not the point - it's the use of patterns.  Adoption is a potentially valid argument for an increase,  but the increases in the past are not. I should have found a better analogy.

it makes sense to me that bitcoin is simply facing the test of time. I do believe it will have a binary outcome. if it is successful, it will have a disgustingly large market cap. but this simply cannot happen over night for too many reasons. is it really surprising that small speculators like ourselves can effortlessly ride the waves of an evidently succeeding global and historical phenomena?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation