Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[chessnut]

I told you! Price is raising.

You're the only one who saw it coming.

was he?

[JorgeStolfi]

I do not know what the price will be but the log brownian model does NOT say that (I am just repeating myself here) ...

Look at a call closed formula price, N(d2) represents the probability of the call being in the money, if you put S=K (our example here) you are left with N(something negative) which means that the probability that the price ends up above current value is ... less than 50% !
And below current value is ... more than 50%.

I don't understand your notation, here is mine

Basically, in the log-Brownian model the difference between successive values of Z(i) = log(P(i)) are independent random variables with probability distributions that are symmetric about zero.  Therefore after any number n of steps the probability distribution of Z(i+n) will be symmstric about the starting value Z(i).  That means Z(i+n) wil be less than Z(i) with 50% probability.  Since log is monotonic, it preserves cumulative probabilities, therefore P(i+n) will be less than P(i) with 50% probability.  What is wrong with this argument?  

(Strictly speaking, "Brownian" requires a normal distribution of increments with zero mean and fixed variance.  In practice the variance varies slowly and the distributions have fatter tails than the norma; but by the law of large numbers they become near-normal for large n.)

[_javi_]

i loved Adam choochoos and rockets pics..

I define myself as a tired permabull (and HODLer)... i like this mini rallies, but the story will repeat and the dumpers will ruin the party.  

[roslinpl]

Ok I am going to sleep. I want to wake up and see rally in progress

Good night to all of the members and I wish you great time while I will be sleeping.

♥BTC

[rjp55]

$500! We made it....

Still curious to see which way this thing is gonna break. I used a significant amount of fiat after April 18th for $480 when I perceived latest round of Chinese FUD to be over (until next time). I won't regret that but do have a little bit more fiat in case we do re-test lows. I'm ready for a reversal, last few months have been tough for our beloved bitcoin (news wise).

[_javi_]

Jorge, honestly, what if tomorrow our beloved PBOC dudes wake up with a bad migrain, and start the FUD again?? can TA predict that???

It didnt rain yesterday, it isnt raining now... are you sure it wont rain tomorrow???

Enough of the TA predictions..

(and i love maths, civil engineer here)

[adamstgBit]

Bears be like

[edwardspitz]

I told you! Price is raising.

You're the only one who saw it coming.

was he?

No, well done to you!

[dreamspark]

Total bidsum on stamp has gone from $9.5mm to $12mm in the last day or so, first time since it hasnt been decreasing in a while.

[ShroomsKit]

I told you! Price is raising.

You're the only one who saw it coming.

was he?

Sarcasm. I think pretty much the whole forum saw it coming.

[adamstgBit]

Total bidsum on stamp has gone from $9.5mm to $12mm in the last day or so, first time since it hasnt been decreasing in a while.

meanwhile ask sum is going down

hmmmm

what does it all mean?


 

[derpinheimer]

Total bidsum on stamp has gone from $9.5mm to $12mm in the last day or so, first time since it hasnt been decreasing in a while.

Bidsum hasnt been below 10mUSD for about 6 days, but yes it is going up. Its the first time the bid sum has topped 12mUSD in over 2 weeks

[chessnut]

I told you! Price is raising.

You're the only one who saw it coming.

was he?

Sarcasm. I think pretty much the whole forum saw it coming.

oh right. could have fooled me with all the bears around yesterday.

[aminorex]

6 hours ago, everyone started predicting an immanent price rise.  I said at least 20 USD.  No one started predicting an immanent price drop at that time, or since then.  Now the price has risen from 480 to 505.  How does that reconcile with your views on technical analysis, Jorge?

[mooncake]

Any reason for the rally?

[ShroomsKit]

I told you! Price is raising.

You're the only one who saw it coming.

was he?

Sarcasm. I think pretty much the whole forum saw it coming.

oh right. could have fooled me with all the bears around yesterday.

Yeah you know...bears.

[wachtwoord]

So is the long term downtrend line the bears got a hard-on for broken already?

[frienemy]

So is the long term downtrend line the bears got a hard-on for broken already?

Which one? They got too many... Some of them in the higher 5 digit range, I suppose

[adamstgBit]

Any reason for the rally?

real life fruit ninja, started accepting bitcoin for his fruit cutting skills.

[ShroomsKit]

Any reason for the rally?

The price wanted to go up for the last weeks already. It gets stopped by a dump or fud every single time. It just that time to try it again after a few days of quiet. It's not like the market is going crazy. I guess everyone is really cautious. People are afraid to buy at 500+ because they don't want to get dumped on again.
As always just guessing.