Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[chessnut]

We'll first off it's not even guaranteed that the world will adopt any form of crypto but if they do it might be something that is nothing like any of the current 'coins'. It might be non-blockchain-based and use some other technology that we can't even imagine currently.

I can imagine two radical alternatives: cryptocurrencies issued and managed by (1) large private multinational companies or consortia (banks, insurance companies, retailers, google, facebook, ...)  or (2) national governments (USAcoin, BitEuro, RussiaCoin, etc.).

These cryptos would retain the idea of offline generation of address/key pairs, but junk all the other "features" of bitcoin (anonymity, decentralized management, independence from gov & banks, irrevocability, mining, limited number, deflation, ...).  Libertarians would hate them (and would hate (1) too), but for most consumers and retailers they may be even better than bitcoin.

a centralised crypto is not an alternative to a decentralised crypto. this is what makes bitcoin revolutuionary. centralised cryptos are nothing new. the world does need a decentralised crypto. we have no superior alternative yet to bitcoin.

[podyx]

wall at stamp got eaten or pulled??

[silverfuture]

We'll first off it's not even guaranteed that the world will adopt any form of crypto but if they do it might be something that is nothing like any of the current 'coins'. It might be non-blockchain-based and use some other technology that we can't even imagine currently.

I can imagine two radical alternatives: cryptocurrencies issued and managed by (1) large private multinational companies or consortia (banks, insurance companies, retailers, google, facebook, ...)  or (2) national governments (USAcoin, BitEuro, RussiaCoin, etc.).

These cryptos would retain the idea of offline generation of address/key pairs, but junk all the other "features" of bitcoin (anonymity, decentralized management, independence from gov & banks, irrevocability, mining, limited number, deflation, ...).  Libertarians would hate them (and would hate (1) too), but for most consumers and retailers they may be even better than bitcoin.

a centralised crypto is not an alternative to a decentralised crypto. this is what makes bitcoin revolutuionary. centralised cryptos are nothing new. the world does need a decentralised crypto. we have no superior alternative yet to bitcoin.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-cBoLBSxhw

[ShroomsKit]

So here is your last chance to get coins for <500.00

You will never see bitcoin prices much lower than this again. It might go slightly lower and may even retest the last low at around 350.00 but this is buy zone if you haven't already. You can quote me on this and thank me later when we are at 10,000 plus in a few short months. China is only an excuse and mars can easily be reached without her.  Don't believe the hype.

Come on. You can be a bull and not be delusional. The chances of going up and getting dumped on by China again are quite high.

I think Silverfuture's exactly right and you are being quite naive

I'm naive because i keep in mind several bad things might happen to Bitcoin again? Really? That is being naive

You didn't state a single bad thing. People dumping because of fear is not a bad thing for Bitcoin. In fact, it's part of the natural growth cycle of Bitcoin and where those intelligent enough to think contrarian make most of their money.

When something comes along that's actually bad for Bitcoin (successful 51% attack, large leak in the hashing algorithm, an altcoin which truly better fundamentals) we'll talk again and I'll probably agree with you but now? No freaking way. I'm sorry but you're just one of the many scared sheep

I have no clue what you're talking about but welcome to my ignore list anyway. Enjoy your stay 

[Erdogan]

[...]

Most of your discussions are backed with this fantasy where the whole world adopts bitcoin.

So where will it stop? When 10 more internet shops adopt bitcoin?. When 10 more Syrian exporters accepts bitcoin? When a new country get its bitcoin bourse? When the foreign workers in Dubai starts to send bitcoins home? When another country is shut out of the money transfer market? When another local fiat goes bust?

I am just curious here. Where is the limit? When all the idiots like me already have a suitable stash of coins, and there are no  more idiots?

[dreamspark]

With no money able to get into Chinese exchanges this can only go on for so long, its almost like arbers have one chance to do it as once they've sent their BTC out of a Chinese exchange theres no way to get any cash back in. Surely coins are going back over to the west theres no other way for it to be.

[magicmexican]

So i am guessing the next move (most likely dump) will happen after the huobi/okcoin/etc announcement or something?

[TERA]

[...]

Most of your discussions are backed with this fantasy where the whole world adopts bitcoin.

So where will it stop? When 10 more internet shops adopt bitcoin?. When 10 more Syrian exporters accepts bitcoin? When a new country get its bitcoin bourse? When the foreign workers in Dubai starts to send bitcoins home? When another country is shut out of the money transfer market? When another local fiat goes bust?

I am just curious here. Where is the limit? When all the idiots like me already have a suitable stash of coins, and there are no  more idiots?

Bitcoin's growth has been an experiment, caused by bitcoin enthusiasts pushing to accomplish adoption, and then demonstrating the technicalities of how said adoption works, as a proof of concept so that the general public might follow along.  When we run out of enthusiasts and the general public fails to actually use bitcoin services in any significant volume because they don't see enough advantage to it over fiat, then the growth has stopped. It could also stop if there is some sort of catastrophic failure, or if competition comes along.

[herzmeister]

let's not forget that BTC is antifragile, it gains from disorder

[xulescu]

[...]

Most of your discussions are backed with this fantasy where the whole world adopts bitcoin.

So where will it stop? When 10 more internet shops adopt bitcoin?. When 10 more Syrian exporters accepts bitcoin? When a new country get its bitcoin bourse? When the foreign workers in Dubai starts to send bitcoins home? When another country is shut out of the money transfer market? When another local fiat goes bust?

I am just curious here. Where is the limit? When all the idiots like me already have a suitable stash of coins, and there are no  more idiots?

Bitcoin's growth has been an experiment, caused by bitcoin enthusiasts pushing to accomplish adoption, and then demonstrating the technicalities of how said adoption works, as a proof of concept so that the general public might follow along.  When we run out of enthusiasts and the general public fails to actually use bitcoin services in any significant volume because they don't see enough advantage to it over fiat, then the growth has stopped. It could also stop if there is some sort of catastrophic failure, or if competition comes along.

I agree that Bitcoin might not offer enough advantages to most people. For the majority of people everywhere, Science and Maths have the same epistemic values as Religion. It is something they do not understand but accept by virtue of social authority. I suspect most people have more trust in their Governments (and even Churches!) than they do in Maths, especially a heavy topic like Cryptography. It would take a catastrophic collapse in trust in Governments to push the balance between Average Joe will never understand number theory.

[xulescu]

let's not forget that BTC is antifragile, it gains from disorder

Not all chaotic systems are antifragile. Actually, almost all are not. Since most people do not understand 99% of the Maths and Science behind Bitcoin, they cannot verify whether that is the case and will have to trust authorities in those fields.

Edit: these is also a common knowledge for Average Joe that intuitively most systems slapped together chaotically do not work. I'm not implying that Bitcoin is slapped together chaotically, although some design decisions and constants were chosen somewhat arbitrarily.

[oda.krell]

actually the dump was predictable by the TA, its the pre-pump that confused ppl

Nice one.



Also, relax people. After the 340 bottom quite a few in here pointed out that, at the very least, we would see a re-test of low 400s, maybe 400 itself before moving on.

I honestly don't get where this major indignation comes from, that some of you in here show. Wait, actually, I do know: because every time we move up 10 USD you start posting rocket.jpeg.

This is/was a major bear market, and getting out of it will probably be a bit more painful than simply going back through all the major (former) support levels in one go :/

[BlackFlag]

actually the dump was predictable by the TA, its the pre-pump that confused ppl

Nice one.



Also, relax people. After the 340 bottom quite a few in here pointed out that, at the very least, we would see a re-test of low 400s, maybe 400 itself before moving on.

I honestly don't get where this major indignation comes from, that some of you in here show. Wait, actually, I do know: because every time we move up 10 USD you start posting rocket.jpeg.

This is/was a major bear market, and getting out of it will probably be a bit more painful than simply going back through all the major (former) support levels in one go :/

+1

[sleger]

AFAIK, the only model that has some claim to statistical legitimacy is the log-Brownian (or geometric-Brownian) model, which gives a very broad probability distribution, having 50% chance above today's price, 50% below, for any future date.

50% chance above and 50% below, for any future date, are you serious ?

Yes.  What will be the price on Nov 17, 2014, at 17:23:11 UTC?  The log-Brownian model say that it will be more than 487.15 USD with 50% probability, less than that with 50% probability.  (OK, there is some probability that it will be EXACTLY 487.15 USD,but it is very small.)

I do not know what the price will be but the log brownian model does NOT say that (I am just repeating myself here) ...

Look at a call closed formula price, N(d2) represents the probability of the call being in the money, if you put S=K (our example here) you are left with N(something negative) which means that the probability that the price ends up above current value is ... less than 50% !
And below current value is ... more than 50%.

Try to think about why, if you still dont understand in a few hours, feel free to ask me.

EDIT: forgot the "but" in first sentence

Hi Jorge, got it now ? Never saw an answer from you...

[ShroomsKit_Disgrace]

actually the dump was predictable by the TA, its the pre-pump that confused ppl

Nice one.



Also, relax people. After the 340 bottom quite a few in here pointed out that, at the very least, we would see a re-test of low 400s, maybe 400 itself before moving on.

I honestly don't get where this major indignation comes from, that some of you in here show. Wait, actually, I do know: because every time we move up 10 USD you start posting rocket.jpeg.

This is/was a major bear market, and getting out of it will probably be a bit more painful than simply going back through all the major (former) support levels in one go :/

It is deeply inside of our DNA, sry mate:

[maximum]

Dumping will start again on Firecoin.
Better sell now.

[dreamspark]

actually the dump was predictable by the TA, its the pre-pump that confused ppl

Nice one.



Also, relax people. After the 340 bottom quite a few in here pointed out that, at the very least, we would see a re-test of low 400s, maybe 400 itself before moving on.

I honestly don't get where this major indignation comes from, that some of you in here show. Wait, actually, I do know: because every time we move up 10 USD you start posting rocket.jpeg.

This is/was a major bear market, and getting out of it will probably be a bit more painful than simply going back through all the major (former) support levels in one go :/

Precisely there are people in here who turned bullish after the $340 bottom then called a retrace to around $460 when we are at around $510 and are now being super bearish because what they thought would happen did!

[TERA]

[podyx]

Still waiting for 420 flash

if we ain't seen one today or tomorrow, i'm buying at 450-460

[magicmexican]

apparently not only the sunlot is trying to propose a plan to resurrect Gox, but Okcoin too.