Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Erdogan]

[...]

Most of your discussions are backed with this fantasy where the whole world adopts bitcoin.

So where will it stop? When 10 more internet shops adopt bitcoin?. When 10 more Syrian exporters accepts bitcoin? When a new country get its bitcoin bourse? When the foreign workers in Dubai starts to send bitcoins home? When another country is shut out of the money transfer market? When another local fiat goes bust?

I am just curious here. Where is the limit? When all the idiots like me already have a suitable stash of coins, and there are no  more idiots?

[dreamspark]

With no money able to get into Chinese exchanges this can only go on for so long, its almost like arbers have one chance to do it as once they've sent their BTC out of a Chinese exchange theres no way to get any cash back in. Surely coins are going back over to the west theres no other way for it to be.

[magicmexican]

So i am guessing the next move (most likely dump) will happen after the huobi/okcoin/etc announcement or something?

[TERA]

[...]

Most of your discussions are backed with this fantasy where the whole world adopts bitcoin.

So where will it stop? When 10 more internet shops adopt bitcoin?. When 10 more Syrian exporters accepts bitcoin? When a new country get its bitcoin bourse? When the foreign workers in Dubai starts to send bitcoins home? When another country is shut out of the money transfer market? When another local fiat goes bust?

I am just curious here. Where is the limit? When all the idiots like me already have a suitable stash of coins, and there are no  more idiots?

Bitcoin's growth has been an experiment, caused by bitcoin enthusiasts pushing to accomplish adoption, and then demonstrating the technicalities of how said adoption works, as a proof of concept so that the general public might follow along.  When we run out of enthusiasts and the general public fails to actually use bitcoin services in any significant volume because they don't see enough advantage to it over fiat, then the growth has stopped. It could also stop if there is some sort of catastrophic failure, or if competition comes along.

[herzmeister]

let's not forget that BTC is antifragile, it gains from disorder

[xulescu]

[...]

Most of your discussions are backed with this fantasy where the whole world adopts bitcoin.

So where will it stop? When 10 more internet shops adopt bitcoin?. When 10 more Syrian exporters accepts bitcoin? When a new country get its bitcoin bourse? When the foreign workers in Dubai starts to send bitcoins home? When another country is shut out of the money transfer market? When another local fiat goes bust?

I am just curious here. Where is the limit? When all the idiots like me already have a suitable stash of coins, and there are no  more idiots?

Bitcoin's growth has been an experiment, caused by bitcoin enthusiasts pushing to accomplish adoption, and then demonstrating the technicalities of how said adoption works, as a proof of concept so that the general public might follow along.  When we run out of enthusiasts and the general public fails to actually use bitcoin services in any significant volume because they don't see enough advantage to it over fiat, then the growth has stopped. It could also stop if there is some sort of catastrophic failure, or if competition comes along.

I agree that Bitcoin might not offer enough advantages to most people. For the majority of people everywhere, Science and Maths have the same epistemic values as Religion. It is something they do not understand but accept by virtue of social authority. I suspect most people have more trust in their Governments (and even Churches!) than they do in Maths, especially a heavy topic like Cryptography. It would take a catastrophic collapse in trust in Governments to push the balance between Average Joe will never understand number theory.

[xulescu]

let's not forget that BTC is antifragile, it gains from disorder

Not all chaotic systems are antifragile. Actually, almost all are not. Since most people do not understand 99% of the Maths and Science behind Bitcoin, they cannot verify whether that is the case and will have to trust authorities in those fields.

Edit: these is also a common knowledge for Average Joe that intuitively most systems slapped together chaotically do not work. I'm not implying that Bitcoin is slapped together chaotically, although some design decisions and constants were chosen somewhat arbitrarily.

[oda.krell]

actually the dump was predictable by the TA, its the pre-pump that confused ppl

Nice one.



Also, relax people. After the 340 bottom quite a few in here pointed out that, at the very least, we would see a re-test of low 400s, maybe 400 itself before moving on.

I honestly don't get where this major indignation comes from, that some of you in here show. Wait, actually, I do know: because every time we move up 10 USD you start posting rocket.jpeg.

This is/was a major bear market, and getting out of it will probably be a bit more painful than simply going back through all the major (former) support levels in one go :/

[BlackFlag]

actually the dump was predictable by the TA, its the pre-pump that confused ppl

Nice one.



Also, relax people. After the 340 bottom quite a few in here pointed out that, at the very least, we would see a re-test of low 400s, maybe 400 itself before moving on.

I honestly don't get where this major indignation comes from, that some of you in here show. Wait, actually, I do know: because every time we move up 10 USD you start posting rocket.jpeg.

This is/was a major bear market, and getting out of it will probably be a bit more painful than simply going back through all the major (former) support levels in one go :/

+1

[sleger]

AFAIK, the only model that has some claim to statistical legitimacy is the log-Brownian (or geometric-Brownian) model, which gives a very broad probability distribution, having 50% chance above today's price, 50% below, for any future date.

50% chance above and 50% below, for any future date, are you serious ?

Yes.  What will be the price on Nov 17, 2014, at 17:23:11 UTC?  The log-Brownian model say that it will be more than 487.15 USD with 50% probability, less than that with 50% probability.  (OK, there is some probability that it will be EXACTLY 487.15 USD,but it is very small.)

I do not know what the price will be but the log brownian model does NOT say that (I am just repeating myself here) ...

Look at a call closed formula price, N(d2) represents the probability of the call being in the money, if you put S=K (our example here) you are left with N(something negative) which means that the probability that the price ends up above current value is ... less than 50% !
And below current value is ... more than 50%.

Try to think about why, if you still dont understand in a few hours, feel free to ask me.

EDIT: forgot the "but" in first sentence

Hi Jorge, got it now ? Never saw an answer from you...

[ShroomsKit_Disgrace]

actually the dump was predictable by the TA, its the pre-pump that confused ppl

Nice one.



Also, relax people. After the 340 bottom quite a few in here pointed out that, at the very least, we would see a re-test of low 400s, maybe 400 itself before moving on.

I honestly don't get where this major indignation comes from, that some of you in here show. Wait, actually, I do know: because every time we move up 10 USD you start posting rocket.jpeg.

This is/was a major bear market, and getting out of it will probably be a bit more painful than simply going back through all the major (former) support levels in one go :/

It is deeply inside of our DNA, sry mate:

[maximum]

Dumping will start again on Firecoin.
Better sell now.

[dreamspark]

actually the dump was predictable by the TA, its the pre-pump that confused ppl

Nice one.



Also, relax people. After the 340 bottom quite a few in here pointed out that, at the very least, we would see a re-test of low 400s, maybe 400 itself before moving on.

I honestly don't get where this major indignation comes from, that some of you in here show. Wait, actually, I do know: because every time we move up 10 USD you start posting rocket.jpeg.

This is/was a major bear market, and getting out of it will probably be a bit more painful than simply going back through all the major (former) support levels in one go :/

Precisely there are people in here who turned bullish after the $340 bottom then called a retrace to around $460 when we are at around $510 and are now being super bearish because what they thought would happen did!

[TERA]

[podyx]

Still waiting for 420 flash

if we ain't seen one today or tomorrow, i'm buying at 450-460

[magicmexican]

apparently not only the sunlot is trying to propose a plan to resurrect Gox, but Okcoin too.

[JorgeStolfi]

Hi Jorge, got it now ? Never saw an answer from you...

I posted my reply yesterday, look in my recent posts.

[dreamspark]

apparently not only the sunlot is trying to propose a plan to resurrect Gox, but Okcoin too.

Did you see the IRC chat log when someone was talking to Olivier Janssens where he also shows some emails between him and mark?

He claims to have been the most valuable account holder at the time of closure as well as waiting on $5mill that Mark personally told him would be transfered.
He says that he didnt file his lawsuit as it would have crippled gox guaranted.
He has alot to say about all the people who are trying to resurect gox.

[lemonte]

apparently not only the sunlot is trying to propose a plan to resurrect Gox, but Okcoin too.

Got a source to the OKcoin story?

[magicmexican]

apparently not only the sunlot is trying to propose a plan to resurrect Gox, but Okcoin too.

Got a source to the OKcoin story?

Just fresh IRC logs, i would guess it will hit reddit soon(ish)