Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[windjc]

This is interesting. The buyers have stopped buying during what is normally the busiest trading time of the day in China.

Is it a Chinese holiday? Because, if not, this is some crazy low volume right now.

[Davyd05]

May 10th is the day before Mothers Day? The great tulip crash.. abhahaha.. couldn't help but add a pun.

Odd they'd set a date for a weekend deadline or news release though?

[freebit13]

Man, that 3d MACD can really drag its feet!!!!

[billyjoeallen]

If I was going to bet, I would bet that price is going nowhere. Not up or down by much. We have inadvertently achieved price stability and it's boring as hell. Who wants to bet that we'll see $500 or $400 in less than a week? I'll bet 0.1 BTC, 1:1 odds, no escrow.

I might take the bet if it were before May 10th.

I think this market still might have 1 big move in it before then.

If one or more of the exchanges has all their deposit options closed, we will see $400.

And we might see $500 in a rally around May 10th.

I agree there is a significant risk of an exchange halting deposits and that would possibly cause a drop below $400, but I think the chance is less than 50%. Any given day there is a chance of a whale driving up price $50 or more, but what the hell.

May 7 midnight GMT and the price is still in the $400s on Stamp with no breakouts higher that $499.99 or lower than $400, I win. I don't even think this is a smart bet. I'm just bored. You in?

[windjc]

If I was going to bet, I would bet that price is going nowhere. Not up or down by much. We have inadvertently achieved price stability and it's boring as hell. Who wants to bet that we'll see $500 or $400 in less than a week? I'll bet 0.1 BTC, 1:1 odds, no escrow.

I might take the bet if it were before May 10th.

I think this market still might have 1 big move in it before then.

If one or more of the exchanges has all their deposit options closed, we will see $400.

And we might see $500 in a rally around May 10th.

I agree there is a significant risk of an exchange halting deposits and that would possibly cause a drop below $400, but I think the chance is less than 50%. Any given day there is a chance of a whale driving up price $50 or more, but what the hell.

May 7 midnight GMT and the price is still in the $400s on Stamp with no breakouts higher that $499.99 or lower than $400, I win. I don't even think this is a smart bet. I'm just bored. You in?

Well, I'm bored too, lol.

But I like this bet even less than you. I can't take that bet, but keep coming up with some and I am sure I might bite at one.

[windjc]

So it is a Chinese holiday - May Day.

I guess that might explain the volume.

Sorta.

[pjviitas]

What? The odds are 1 to 1.

We are 50% between 2555 and 3106.  

Which one do we hit first?

As you have less coins than me, I deferred the choice of amount to you.

why the fuck would i bet with you on 1:1 odds when the market is offering me 1:3!?

So you will make 300% profit if we get to 3106??

What the hell are you talking about???

Take the bet and win and make 100% profit on a 15% move.

What universe are you living in right now?

If a go long here, ad it goes to 3500, I make $300. if I short here, and it goes to 2500, I make $100. not to mention, I can reverse my position if fundamentals change on the market, I cant reverse my bet. You better offer me 4:1 odds at least or it's not worth my time.

If you make a bet you believe in based on 100% of your posts you make a 100% profit on <15% market move.

Thats better than going long or going short.

You are a fucking idiot.

I'm calling you out on this one just in case anyone reading this thread bought your drivel and excuses.

Is this what the Bitcoin market has been reduced to...sidebets?   Pathetic!!!

[billyjoeallen]

If I was going to bet, I would bet that price is going nowhere. Not up or down by much. We have inadvertently achieved price stability and it's boring as hell. Who wants to bet that we'll see $500 or $400 in less than a week? I'll bet 0.1 BTC, 1:1 odds, no escrow.

I might take the bet if it were before May 10th.

I think this market still might have 1 big move in it before then.

If one or more of the exchanges has all their deposit options closed, we will see $400.

And we might see $500 in a rally around May 10th.

I agree there is a significant risk of an exchange halting deposits and that would possibly cause a drop below $400, but I think the chance is less than 50%. Any given day there is a chance of a whale driving up price $50 or more, but what the hell.

May 7 midnight GMT and the price is still in the $400s on Stamp with no breakouts higher that $499.99 or lower than $400, I win. I don't even think this is a smart bet. I'm just bored. You in?

Well, I'm bored too, lol.

But I like this bet even less than you. I can't take that bet, but keep coming up with some and I am sure I might bite at one.

How about this: By May 15 GMT midnight, if we've gone over $500 AND below $400 (in either order), you owe me 0.2 BTC and otherwise I owe you 0.1 BTC

[windjc]

If I was going to bet, I would bet that price is going nowhere. Not up or down by much. We have inadvertently achieved price stability and it's boring as hell. Who wants to bet that we'll see $500 or $400 in less than a week? I'll bet 0.1 BTC, 1:1 odds, no escrow.

I might take the bet if it were before May 10th.

I think this market still might have 1 big move in it before then.

If one or more of the exchanges has all their deposit options closed, we will see $400.

And we might see $500 in a rally around May 10th.

I agree there is a significant risk of an exchange halting deposits and that would possibly cause a drop below $400, but I think the chance is less than 50%. Any given day there is a chance of a whale driving up price $50 or more, but what the hell.

May 7 midnight GMT and the price is still in the $400s on Stamp with no breakouts higher that $499.99 or lower than $400, I win. I don't even think this is a smart bet. I'm just bored. You in?

Well, I'm bored too, lol.

But I like this bet even less than you. I can't take that bet, but keep coming up with some and I am sure I might bite at one.

How about this: By May 15 GMT midnight, if we've gone over $500 AND below $400 (in either order), you owe me 0.2 BTC and otherwise I owe you 0.1 BTC

So now you are going to take the high volatility side of the bet?

I will take this bet. If only because if we have that much volatility in the market in the next 2 weeks I will make so much that .2 btc won't even matter. And if its boring, then at least I get a .1 btc consolation price. 

[windjc]

What? The odds are 1 to 1.

We are 50% between 2555 and 3106.  

Which one do we hit first?

As you have less coins than me, I deferred the choice of amount to you.

why the fuck would i bet with you on 1:1 odds when the market is offering me 1:3!?

So you will make 300% profit if we get to 3106??

What the hell are you talking about???

Take the bet and win and make 100% profit on a 15% move.

What universe are you living in right now?

If a go long here, ad it goes to 3500, I make $300. if I short here, and it goes to 2500, I make $100. not to mention, I can reverse my position if fundamentals change on the market, I cant reverse my bet. You better offer me 4:1 odds at least or it's not worth my time.

If you make a bet you believe in based on 100% of your posts you make a 100% profit on <15% market move.

Thats better than going long or going short.

You are a fucking idiot.

I'm calling you out on this one just in case anyone reading this thread bought your drivel and excuses.

Is this what the Bitcoin market has been reduced to...sidebets?   Pathetic!!!

Pretty much.

[billyjoeallen]

If I was going to bet, I would bet that price is going nowhere. Not up or down by much. We have inadvertently achieved price stability and it's boring as hell. Who wants to bet that we'll see $500 or $400 in less than a week? I'll bet 0.1 BTC, 1:1 odds, no escrow.

I might take the bet if it were before May 10th.

I think this market still might have 1 big move in it before then.

If one or more of the exchanges has all their deposit options closed, we will see $400.

And we might see $500 in a rally around May 10th.

I agree there is a significant risk of an exchange halting deposits and that would possibly cause a drop below $400, but I think the chance is less than 50%. Any given day there is a chance of a whale driving up price $50 or more, but what the hell.

May 7 midnight GMT and the price is still in the $400s on Stamp with no breakouts higher that $499.99 or lower than $400, I win. I don't even think this is a smart bet. I'm just bored. You in?

Well, I'm bored too, lol.

But I like this bet even less than you. I can't take that bet, but keep coming up with some and I am sure I might bite at one.

How about this: By May 15 GMT midnight, if we've gone over $500 AND below $400 (in either order), you owe me 0.2 BTC and otherwise I owe you 0.1 BTC

So now you are going to take the high volatility side of the bet?

I will take this bet. If only because if we have that much volatility in the market in the next 2 weeks I will make so much that .2 btc won't even matter. And if its boring, then at least I get a .1 btc consolation price.  

Deal. FWIW I think I have a ~60% chance of losing, but with a 2:1 payout, it's worth it.

[windjc]

If I was going to bet, I would bet that price is going nowhere. Not up or down by much. We have inadvertently achieved price stability and it's boring as hell. Who wants to bet that we'll see $500 or $400 in less than a week? I'll bet 0.1 BTC, 1:1 odds, no escrow.

I might take the bet if it were before May 10th.

I think this market still might have 1 big move in it before then.

If one or more of the exchanges has all their deposit options closed, we will see $400.

And we might see $500 in a rally around May 10th.

I agree there is a significant risk of an exchange halting deposits and that would possibly cause a drop below $400, but I think the chance is less than 50%. Any given day there is a chance of a whale driving up price $50 or more, but what the hell.

May 7 midnight GMT and the price is still in the $400s on Stamp with no breakouts higher that $499.99 or lower than $400, I win. I don't even think this is a smart bet. I'm just bored. You in?

Well, I'm bored too, lol.

But I like this bet even less than you. I can't take that bet, but keep coming up with some and I am sure I might bite at one.

How about this: By May 15 GMT midnight, if we've gone over $500 AND below $400 (in either order), you owe me 0.2 BTC and otherwise I owe you 0.1 BTC

So now you are going to take the high volatility side of the bet?

I will take this bet. If only because if we have that much volatility in the market in the next 2 weeks I will make so much that .2 btc won't even matter. And if its boring, then at least I get a .1 btc consolation price. 

Deal. FWIW I think I have a ~60% of losing, but with a 2:1 payout, it's worth it.

I think you have a 75-80% of losing, so the odds weigh slightly in my favor if so.

I think your best chance is for us to continue up to $500 and then have an exchange get cut off.

I think if we see $400 before May 15th we won't be seeing $500 for a while.

[edwardspitz]

Has this 40K btc purchased news actually been confirmed by anyone as legitimate? I saw it linked on some Chinese site. Perhaps it's a Chinese pump before their next dump.

This purchase could technically happen 300 times. But who is to say it will happen even one more time? It takes more than just some occasional institutional investor to cause a reversal - there needs to be a trend of new people getting interested and actually wanting to use the technology, or a new market.

The daily chart is trumped by the weekly ema downcross. All the little patterns and indicators you are looking at will just get erased with a random giant red candle out of nowhere.

yeah it was confirmed.

how could it happen 300 times? that's wishful thinking. 300 market orders? or shall they put up a 5 million BTC buy wall on bitstamp?

I am using the daily chart. and I wish that you could guarantee that my 'little patterns' will be wiped out, but you cant. what we are seeing now  believe is the market preparing for July, when for the first time legit exchanges will be opening in America. we will see all the legit money that's been held back,  and perhaps china follow the lead of the USA as expected.

I'm afraid that China will not follow anything at that point, because I believe that real Chinese Exchanges will be a thing of the past at that point. The current Chinese exchanges made it too easy for common chinese people to obtain, use and invest in bitcoin. The Chinese government does not want that. I don't think they will ban bitcoin all together, they just seriously do not want the common people to get involved with bitcoin. They won't ban it per se for several reasons. First it will be seen as a backward move. Second they have industry (miners and hardware/chips manufacturers) that they want to survive and profit from bitcoin. Maybe they also want someone to profit from Bitcoin speculation, just not the common man. I think the writing is on the wall. Their policy is a major setback for bitcoin adoption in China. I am still hoping that Bitcoin will be powerful enough to pull through, but it is not looking good at the moment in my opinion.

Another month or two of this various bull - sheit... and many of us will be completely disheartened.     Then, BTC will be ready for its price rally.

I agree. The exchanges are to easy to control with regulation. I hope the Chinese traders will take their BTC out of the exchanges and start trading them in other ways.

[mah87]

According to my last TA we will see bitcoin going down or going up.

[JayJuanGee]

If I was going to bet, I would bet that price is going nowhere. Not up or down by much. We have inadvertently achieved price stability and it's boring as hell. Who wants to bet that we'll see $500 or $400 in less than a week? I'll bet 0.1 BTC, 1:1 odds, no escrow.

I might take the bet if it were before May 10th.

I think this market still might have 1 big move in it before then.

If one or more of the exchanges has all their deposit options closed, we will see $400.

And we might see $500 in a rally around May 10th.

I agree there is a significant risk of an exchange halting deposits and that would possibly cause a drop below $400, but I think the chance is less than 50%. Any given day there is a chance of a whale driving up price $50 or more, but what the hell.

May 7 midnight GMT and the price is still in the $400s on Stamp with no breakouts higher that $499.99 or lower than $400, I win. I don't even think this is a smart bet. I'm just bored. You in?

Well, I'm bored too, lol.

But I like this bet even less than you. I can't take that bet, but keep coming up with some and I am sure I might bite at one.

How about this: By May 15 GMT midnight, if we've gone over $500 AND below $400 (in either order), you owe me 0.2 BTC and otherwise I owe you 0.1 BTC

So now you are going to take the high volatility side of the bet?

I will take this bet. If only because if we have that much volatility in the market in the next 2 weeks I will make so much that .2 btc won't even matter. And if its boring, then at least I get a .1 btc consolation price. 

I like it.  It's a really good bet, and makes the recently boring BTC market a bit more interesting........

I witnesseth... this bet... and it seems to be on the honor system by two long-time posters.  If either of you reneg on paying the bet (if you lose), your name will be MUDD in this thread.   

[billyjoeallen]

If I was going to bet, I would bet that price is going nowhere. Not up or down by much. We have inadvertently achieved price stability and it's boring as hell. Who wants to bet that we'll see $500 or $400 in less than a week? I'll bet 0.1 BTC, 1:1 odds, no escrow.

I might take the bet if it were before May 10th.

I think this market still might have 1 big move in it before then.

If one or more of the exchanges has all their deposit options closed, we will see $400.

And we might see $500 in a rally around May 10th.

I agree there is a significant risk of an exchange halting deposits and that would possibly cause a drop below $400, but I think the chance is less than 50%. Any given day there is a chance of a whale driving up price $50 or more, but what the hell.

May 7 midnight GMT and the price is still in the $400s on Stamp with no breakouts higher that $499.99 or lower than $400, I win. I don't even think this is a smart bet. I'm just bored. You in?

Well, I'm bored too, lol.

But I like this bet even less than you. I can't take that bet, but keep coming up with some and I am sure I might bite at one.

How about this: By May 15 GMT midnight, if we've gone over $500 AND below $400 (in either order), you owe me 0.2 BTC and otherwise I owe you 0.1 BTC

So now you are going to take the high volatility side of the bet?

I will take this bet. If only because if we have that much volatility in the market in the next 2 weeks I will make so much that .2 btc won't even matter. And if its boring, then at least I get a .1 btc consolation price. 

Deal. FWIW I think I have a ~60% of losing, but with a 2:1 payout, it's worth it.

I think you have a 75-80% of losing, so the odds weigh slightly in my favor if so.

I think your best chance is for us to continue up to $500 and then have an exchange get cut off.

I think if we see $400 before May 15th we won't be seeing $500 for a while.

You're prolly right, but if we have a retest of $340 support on high volume and it holds, then the double bottom is likely in and it's planes trains and automobiles for the summer.

[ShroomsKit_Disgrace]

So given how this thread is always on-topic, I would like to hear a few reasons for and against NXT, if you ladies and gentlemen have an opinion on the matter.

Did kodtycoon answer you correctly? LOL you have tons of reason "fo NXT" in his response. Amazing stuff! 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[nanobrain]

I witnesseth... this bet...

Confirmed.

[billyjoeallen]

Wow, Stamp hit $460 almost an hour ago when we were screwing around. I almost owe Adam an apology if you take a very loose interpretation of the term "moments away".