Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[windjc]

I don't usually post news here, mostly on Reddit BitcoinMarkets subsection, but I thought it would be interesting to share this one.

Linkcoin, a very small BTC/CNY exchange, will shut down on May 11th after receiving this afternoon a 3rd-party notification. [LINK]

It's probably irrelevant, as most small platforms attempt to be profitable, so it is without doubt that we'll see more platforms emulating FXBTC decisions in the very near future.

I think one or more of the big 3 is going to follow. I think it might be BTChina.

If one or more do not fold their doors, I think we will see at least 1 move offshore - OkCoin the most likely.

I think we are going to get some fireworks in the next week or two. I really do. Then, maybe we can start to clean China from our systems. Well see.

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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[windjc]

This market is reminding me of The Boss.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZarmRLa2p9Q

[OldGeek]

Wowzer!  Now that's what I call a Dump.  What's up, Stamp?

edit:  I dunno.  Might be a glitch on BitcoinWisdom.

edit 2:  confirmed glitch... It showed over 11k until I refreshed.  Whew.

[ShroomsKit]

Looks like there is some panic going on. Next round of China fud?

[OldGeek]

There is certainly something going on.  I'm too tired to stay up and see it live.   

[Mythul]

Random thought, how would a war in Europe affect Bitcoin ? 2014 seems to be a really really bad year so far !

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[YogoH]

Euphoria!! 

[Post-Cosmic]

The B.S. in China is the way the exchanges keep trying to stay open, find these subversive deposit options, and lie to their customers that everything is ok.  If they just did the right thing and shut down, then we might be able to get over this more quickly.

 I know, right.... Leon, Star & Bobby will continue their profitable craven tactics alllll the way until chinese authorities either arrest them or they're finally out of deposit/withdrawal options & mainland china can actually exit the markets.

 And so, in continuing w/ my earlier post..

I've discovered (or merely re-confirmed, in some of these cases) that :

 ~> I hate high prices.
 ~> Hate Low-Volatility & 'Retail-Friendly Price Stability'.
 ~> Hate regulation/integration w/ existing fiat-based economies.
 ~> Hate reliance on widespread merchant adoption & VC investment.
 ~> Hate the idea of crypto moving away from its anarcho-libertarian roots.
 ~> Hate big government (especially the PBoC's bs ).

 I also had a brief moment of contempt for miners & PoW as a whole given they're mostly interested in get-rich-quick regardless of what it does to infrastructure, prices, community/project, or economies, but then I realized, not only does PoW (even though it's kinda wasteful) show as much if not possibly more design advantages than PoS or other methods ; But more importantly to us traders, these miners, are what would allow the prices to stay low, by dumping (& seldom buying - aka, one-way flow) more than any other groups [merchants/customers][traders/speculators], the latter having some relatively balanced upward & downward pressure on prices.

 Now why in the worldly hell would anyone want such one-way, constant dumping..? Much harder to reach ATH that way no..?

 ..But that's exactly what the problem is. We're stuck in narrow-channelled limbo's for months precisely because of these two opposing forces - those wanting an ATH & ever-higher prices, and those just wanting to dump & run w/ the money -now-. If this actually damaging concept of an ATH was dropped, we'd all win. The dumpers would make the bank they always have, unopposed.. ..until we reach a 'recent-memory'-ATL. There, the buying pressure from investors/speculators would be so high, it would balance out the dumpers, ideally in waves for maximum % volatility (trading profitability).

 Can you imagine that..? A complete blood bath, a China exit, a BTC-e crash/arrest, followed by years of $0.50-$125 price ranges in an exuberant climax of joy for any leveraging trader..?  Endless mountains upon valleys upon mountains of insane tri- or quad-digit-% profits, bitcoin itself returning to its roots, everyone who isn't too dumb to trade able once again to get another chance at those glorious days of 2011-2012 single-/double- digits..? Everyone here would get a Second Coming, this Divine Intervention granting each faithful bitcoiner another chance at becoming a Supernode..!!!

[dnaleor]

On bitstamp, the recent uptrend failed:


main support at 425 is possible now...


edit: same situation on BTC-E

[ElectricMucus]

Pump, pump, pump and dump, didly di diddldy du...

[xulescu]

Random thought, how would a war in Europe affect Bitcoin ? 2014 seems to be a really really bad year so far !

That is the Quadrillion Dollar question. There are many arguments for and against, and this is just a lazy hash of my thought on the matter.

It can be argued FOR, that Bitcoin effectively acts as an inflation hedge and so a war in Europe would be solid fuel boosters to take us out of the atmosphere. The counter-argument is that gold and silver are going down even with QE4ever in full throttle and that the same causes  can depress Bitcoin similarly.

It can also be argued AGAINST, that Bitcoin is still mostly considered a very high risk speculative asset (one vote per fiat unit invested) and so, if the whole worldwide Ponzi collapses then it will be one of the first to see investors selling to cover other failing investments, with the usual speculator/momentum component for some spectacular Bitcoin-style oomph. This is supported by the observation that metals fell when the crash in 2008 really hit the markets. The counter-argument is that Bitcoin is not really metal but a new asset class because... well, google "internet"..., and as such, when money rushes to the exits, more money rushes into Bitcoin than rushes out, with some hysteresis of course.

If you asked me, without pretending to really understand the forces at play, I believe we will go down, then (possibly all the way) up, so it is viable to keep buying on the way down as long as you are not leveraged and you can afford to lose all in a black swan Bitcoin failure. I also believe that in the Bitcoin economy, most bears are bulls incognito.



But completely hijacking the conversation, I posted earlier a link to another thread about Sunlot and you-cannot-make-this-shit-up shenanigans. I got a few rightfully concerned replies, but no real discussion. Does nobody care? I think it's a serious indirect risk to the Bitcoin economy...

[ElectricMucus]

pumpy dumpy sat on a wall.

[Cassius]

pumpy dumpy sat on a wall.

Or are we finally getting to the Last Big Dump before the bottom? Assuming it's going to happen (which I now do), it can't be much further away.

[Post-Cosmic]

Random thought, how would a war in Europe affect Bitcoin ? 2014 seems to be a really really bad year so far !

 You'd want to first worry about ~

1] How a european war would affect the lives of europeans, and eurasians, the middle east, and to a lesser degree most of asia and north america.
2] What it would do to global stock prices, many commodity/futures markets, real estate, retail sales & consumer/producer price indexes, and most importantly, fiat foreign exchange rates..
3] THEN, you may start wondering, how it would or wouldn't affect BTC (least relevant/least chance of effect) ;p

 Btw Adam, very interesting poll, one of the best in months

[windjc]

pumpy dumpy sat on a wall.

Or are we finally getting to the Last Big Dump before the bottom? Assuming it's going to happen (which I now do), it can't be much further away.

The last big China dump will probably come when 1 or more of the Big 3 China exchanges close/move offshore.

Depending on the combination of these events, will have an impact on how fast we go down and how far we go.

I think it will be another Gox type of event.

After that, we will have a chance to see if fresh fiat can bring us anywhere. But without fresh fiat, no matter how low we go, we will revisit that low eventually.

[ShroomsKit]

And China for the 20th time killed an uptrend. But hey, let's just keep following a dying exchange. The sheep can't wait to completely totally go full retard when Huobi gets closed down one of these days.

[Spaceman_Spiff]

I think that people should concentrate less on how to attract the masses and more about how to handle the masses when the flood gates open.
I think people are a little caught up in what is possible and perhaps ignoring what is practical.
the practical side of bitcoin is in need of much work, I'm afraid.

Hear, hear !
How bout providing more utility instead of trying to lure in more speculators.

[Teppino]

Now we need another poll about what substance took the guy who voted "euphoria"