Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[xulescu]

Now we need another poll about what substance took the guy who voted "euphoria"

Mixed the pills again grandpa?

[xulescu]

But without fresh fiat, no matter how low we go, we will revisit that low eventually.

This is not true. It is not strictly true that you need new money to revisit ATHs. If nobody sells, the price goes up forever. The trick is how to convince everybody that nobody else will panic. This is exactly what the West CBs attempt now.

[Teppino]

Now we need another poll about what substance took the guy who voted "euphoria"

Mixed the pills again grandpa?

I'm strong and handsome 

[xulescu]

Now we need another poll about what substance took the guy who voted "euphoria"

Mixed the pills again grandpa?

I'm strong and handsome 

Grandpa has some serious lag. They must still be seeing The Gox at 1000$/BTC in order to feel so... pumped.

[TooDumbForBitcoin]

Random thought, how would a war in Europe affect Bitcoin ? 2014 seems to be a really really bad year so far

Please clarify ... would a war in Europe make 2014 better or worse?

[windjc]

But without fresh fiat, no matter how low we go, we will revisit that low eventually.

This is not true. It is not strictly true that you need new money to revisit ATHs. If nobody sells, the price goes up forever. The trick is how to convince everybody that nobody else will panic. This is exactly what the West CBs attempt now.

This is a ludicrous myth. Almost 4000 coins are being mined daily. They will be sold. Also merchants accepting payments though bitpay and coinbase - those coins will be sold.

There will be inflation for years to come.

Not every is going to hold so you can become a millionaire with 1 coin.

[oldm8]

Random thought, how would a war in Europe affect Bitcoin ? 2014 seems to be a really really bad year so far

Please clarify ... would a war in Europe make 2014 better or worse?

Would a war in Europe make 2014 better or worse!!! WTF
You obvoiusly live in a country thats never experienced war.
Bitcoin losses or gains would pale into insignificance compared to the loss of your sons, houses, normality. There are 3 nuclear armed nations in this region.
If you have no morals whatsover, if a war happens, take your money out of Bitcoin and invest in USA Steel, Armaments, and Chemicals.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[billyjoeallen]

It seems a waste of time to conjecture about a war in Europe or a crash to single digits. These things are extremely unlikely and a lot of other bad things would have to happen first. Ukraine looks like it may break up into two countries (not counting Crimea) roughly along language lines with or without a limited civil war.  The Western Leaders AND Putin would both have to make some rather foolish mistakes for things to escalate to the point of any hostilities outside of Ukraine. The economic interdependence of Russia and the West is simply too strong at this point.

Bitcoin is likely to retest $340 support if one or more of the big three Chinese exchanges goes dark. That support may never get retested, it might get tested and hold or it may not. Even if it doesn't hold, the next step down is only $266-$300. That's bad, but it's not a disaster. It's premature to discuss disaster scenarios. There may come a time when it's appropriate to discuss them but there are far too many unknowns for even attempting to assign probabilities at this point in time.

Black Swan events by definition are things that happen so rarely that you can't assign them probabilities. What we are seeing is a rather boring reduction in demand due to PBoC hostility.  The market is searching for an equilibrium that will form a base for the next rally. If past is prologue, then we'll likely bounce around near that base for months before heading back up to quadruple digits. In short, I just don't see any reason for extreme skepticism or optimism here.

[niothor]

And China for the 20th time killed an uptrend. But hey, let's just keep following a dying exchange. The sheep can't wait to completely totally go full retard when Huobi gets closed down one of these days.

They will kill it 28 or even 38 times (numbers signify prosperity) until they will finally run out of luck.

Every day I see those volumes on huobi I wonder how the hell is anyone believing the trade volume is not manipulated.

It's a dying exchange with limited amounts of depositing and the volume is still the in the same % comparing to the others.

But unfortunately, I believe we will see people (sheep for you )  watching huobi even after the next chinese year.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[boumalo]

Random thought, how would a war in Europe affect Bitcoin ? 2014 seems to be a really really bad year so far !

That is the Quadrillion Dollar question. There are many arguments for and against, and this is just a lazy hash of my thought on the matter.

It can be argued FOR, that Bitcoin effectively acts as an inflation hedge and so a war in Europe would be solid fuel boosters to take us out of the atmosphere. The counter-argument is that gold and silver are going down even with QE4ever in full throttle and that the same causes  can depress Bitcoin similarly.

It can also be argued AGAINST, that Bitcoin is still mostly considered a very high risk speculative asset (one vote per fiat unit invested) and so, if the whole worldwide Ponzi collapses then it will be one of the first to see investors selling to cover other failing investments, with the usual speculator/momentum component for some spectacular Bitcoin-style oomph. This is supported by the observation that metals fell when the crash in 2008 really hit the markets. The counter-argument is that Bitcoin is not really metal but a new asset class because... well, google "internet"..., and as such, when money rushes to the exits, more money rushes into Bitcoin than rushes out, with some hysteresis of course.

If you asked me, without pretending to really understand the forces at play, I believe we will go down, then (possibly all the way) up, so it is viable to keep buying on the way down as long as you are not leveraged and you can afford to lose all in a black swan Bitcoin failure. I also believe that in the Bitcoin economy, most bears are bulls incognito.



But completely hijacking the conversation, I posted earlier a link to another thread about Sunlot and you-cannot-make-this-shit-up shenanigans. I got a few rightfully concerned replies, but no real discussion. Does nobody care? I think it's a serious indirect risk to the Bitcoin economy...

There is a lot of market manipulation from the FED and the banks : the FED keeps the interest low and will keep it low even if the unemployment rate go down unlike what they previously said, they started tapering and the market believes they will keep tapering but they are wrong because the stock market will collapse if they do

[ShroomsKit]

And China for the 20th time killed an uptrend. But hey, let's just keep following a dying exchange. The sheep can't wait to completely totally go full retard when Huobi gets closed down one of these days.

They will kill it 28 or even 38 times (numbers signify prosperity) until they will finally run out of luck.

Every day I see those volumes on huobi I wonder how the hell is anyone believing the trade volume is not manipulated.

It's a dying exchange with limited amounts of depositing and the volume is still the in the same % comparing to the others.

But unfortunately, I believe we will see people (sheep for you )  watching huobi even after the next chinese year.

I agree, these crazy volume spikes can't be real anymore. It's pure manipulation.

[kurious]

The poll is missing 'boredom' or perhaps 'frustration' none of the terms really fits these kind of feelings.

I can't be the only one who feels like it's dragging along somewhat indecisively...

[kurious]

Random thought, how would a war in Europe affect Bitcoin ? 2014 seems to be a really really bad year so far !

(snip)


.... But completely hijacking the conversation, I posted earlier a link to another thread about Sunlot and you-cannot-make-this-shit-up shenanigans. I got a few rightfully concerned replies, but no real discussion. Does nobody care? I think it's a serious indirect risk to the Bitcoin economy...

I read Phineas G's stuff on Sunlot and it was quite shocking - it does seem like the SaveGox is more SavageGox to me - I really can't see the kind of people involved doing anything other than a cynical raid on assets and laughing all the way to the bank, or that Spanish villa some of their associates seem to enjoy.

Equally surprised no one seemed to comment TBH.

[xulescu]

But without fresh fiat, no matter how low we go, we will revisit that low eventually.

This is not true. It is not strictly true that you need new money to revisit ATHs. If nobody sells, the price goes up forever. The trick is how to convince everybody that nobody else will panic. This is exactly what the West CBs attempt now.

This is a ludicrous myth. Almost 4000 coins are being mined daily. They will be sold. Also merchants accepting payments though bitpay and coinbase - those coins will be sold.

There will be inflation for years to come.

Not every is going to hold so you can become a millionaire with 1 coin.

I believe you are naive in your dismissal. Most if not all fresh mined coins are bought over the counter through long-term contracts. Merchants don't depress the market because hodlers are not suddenly buying all they can buy with Bitcoin. The YEN is inflating fast too, but it's not going down relative to the USD. The higher BTC goes the fewer BTC the hodlers need to sell. And so on. Actually, why would any hodler sell now unless he was squeezed somewhere else?

Markets have two regimes, depending on whether the majority is investors or speculators. In a 100% speculator market where a few large players collude, the price can move up while the cartel is unloading or otherwise ("manipulation"). The cartel can offer a global implicit put ("bailout"). A bubble only breaks when the common knowledge that the price goes up forever starts to falter. When enough players doubt, the market reverses suddenly into the same behaviour, but down.

The point is that, again, if nobody sells then the price goes up forever. It is not even necessary that nobody sells. The unstable equilibrium between the attractors requires that volume goes down as 1/x if you have a fixed amount of cash in the system. Exchange fees simply move the equilibrium to a narrower function, like 1/x^2.

You sound like an excellent player of the game, but you do not, or pretend not to understand how to play the players. In a speculator market like BTC, alts, stocks and everything now, stocks in the 20's, there is no fair value. There is no correct price. It is all a coordination game. I seriously doubt you actually ignore that the other players are strategic too. There are times when that assumption works, but that is not the case now.

I believe you know exactly what I'm talking about and that you're talking your books with no pretense for objectivity (which was established to be the correct behaviour earlier).

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[xulescu]

Random thought, how would a war in Europe affect Bitcoin ? 2014 seems to be a really really bad year so far !

(snip)


.... But completely hijacking the conversation, I posted earlier a link to another thread about Sunlot and you-cannot-make-this-shit-up shenanigans. I got a few rightfully concerned replies, but no real discussion. Does nobody care? I think it's a serious indirect risk to the Bitcoin economy...

I read Phineas G's stuff on Sunlot and it was quite shocking - it does seem like the SaveGox is more SavageGox to me - I really can't see the kind of people involved doing anything other than a cynical raid on assets and laughing all the way to the bank, or that Spanish villa some of their associates seem to enjoy.

Equally surprised no one seemed to comment TBH.

I find it more worrisome that they all seem to have a massive fetish with the interpol and DoJ and whatever satanic imagery. The identity blur between various parties makes it worse in this respect. If I had my tinfoil had within reach I would suggest some Police wants to turn Gox into a honey pot? I though they might be interested in personal data of users but seriously, that shit was leaked for 200 BTC or something like that. Surely TPTB have a backup to that, in case of multiple unrelated catastrophic storage failure, certainly.

[bamsbamx]

I see current market very VERY bearish....

I can see BTC going down up to about 350 USD/BTC by the end of this month  

Proof: https://i.imgur.com/EV492CP.png


Is this correct? I do not know to make predictions, but this one seems to be right

What do you think?