Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JorgeStolfi]

Who knows how the Chinese will react if the first exchange is going to be shut down. People will most likely panic, even thought they knew this will happen.

One exchange (FXBTC) has already shut down; only withdrawals are still enabled, until May 10.  They said that they had been operating at a loss, but presumably they still have enough funds to honor all account balances.

I am wondering about Huobi.  They have not updated their main webpage or posted any public announcement since Apr/17.  I suppose that their total client account balance is much bigger than FXBTC's.  Will they be able to wind down as cleanly as them?

OKCoin apparently has been answering client questions in their blog, but I do not know whether they have announced any plans for May/10 and beyond.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Richy_T]

But without fresh fiat, no matter how low we go, we will revisit that low eventually.

This is not true. It is not strictly true that you need new money to revisit ATHs. If nobody sells, the price goes up forever. The trick is how to convince everybody that nobody else will panic. This is exactly what the West CBs attempt now.

This is a ludicrous myth. Almost 4000 coins are being mined daily. They will be sold. Also merchants accepting payments though bitpay and coinbase - those coins will be sold.

There will be inflation for years to come.

Not every is going to hold so you can become a millionaire with 1 coin.

If nobody sells, Bitcoin fails. It's a dynamic equilibrium of growth.

[slapper]

But without fresh fiat, no matter how low we go, we will revisit that low eventually.

This is not true. It is not strictly true that you need new money to revisit ATHs. If nobody sells, the price goes up forever. The trick is how to convince everybody that nobody else will panic. This is exactly what the West CBs attempt now.

This is a ludicrous myth. Almost 4000 coins are being mined daily. They will be sold. Also merchants accepting payments though bitpay and coinbase - those coins will be sold.

There will be inflation for years to come.

Not every is going to hold so you can become a millionaire with 1 coin.

If nobody sells, Bitcoin fails. It's a dynamic equilibrium of growth.

Just collude with xulesco on when to sell. Most likely buyers are wall street bogeyman who don't have contacts with mining companies and will go straight to the rigged exchanges to buy it from salesmen.

[rezurect]

BTC, You remind me of someone... a man I met in a half-remembered dream. A man possessed of some radical notions.
Don't you want to take a leap of faith? Or become an old man, filled with regret, waiting to die alone!

[igorr]

I see current market very VERY bearish....

I can see BTC going down up to about 350 USD/BTC by the end of this month  

Proof:


Is this correct? I do not know to make predictions, but this one seems to be right

What do you think?

If that is proof it would mean the price will never go up again.
It's quite likely we will go up again so that chart is pretty useless. It can be today or 6 months from now. Saying 350 is the turning point is the same as guessing any random number under 450.

Just MtGox can raise up the bitcoin price

[lebing]

Either that or we have already broken out to the upside. Just need volume for confirmation.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[xulescu]

But without fresh fiat, no matter how low we go, we will revisit that low eventually.

This is not true. It is not strictly true that you need new money to revisit ATHs. If nobody sells, the price goes up forever. The trick is how to convince everybody that nobody else will panic. This is exactly what the West CBs attempt now.

This is a ludicrous myth. Almost 4000 coins are being mined daily. They will be sold. Also merchants accepting payments though bitpay and coinbase - those coins will be sold.

There will be inflation for years to come.

Not every is going to hold so you can become a millionaire with 1 coin.

If nobody sells, Bitcoin fails. It's a dynamic equilibrium of growth.

You're missing the point. This is not about Bitcoin, this is about any speculative bubble. It could be Ponzi tulips or housing or anything. If nobody sold, the price would go up forever. I've clarified in the next post that some selling can occur at the same time.

You're also in another place semantically than I am. I am talking strictly about BTCUSD. People could use BTC to buy food, as long as BTC selling for USD is controlled and the BTFATH narrative does not stop. BTCUSD would still go up forever.

Arbitrage you say? Arbitrage is not realized in that case, only a massive, massive carry trade. From another point of view: say there's 1000 paper pUSD printed, and about 100k dUSD in zero maturity debt. Supposedly 1 pUSD = 1 dUSD because they're (mostly) fungible. If nobody lost faith in the credit system there would be no run on paper and thus they would stay fungible (even with the gross difference in total money). It is only when liquidity disappears (i.e. when players do not trust the "all algos buy mode" narrative) that the fungibility is lost.

The moral is, one exponential growth completely trumps any lesser exponential growth. Just like Bitcoin blocks have a consistent average of 6-7 minutes instead of 10 for a while now because hashrate grows exponentially, difficulty grows exponentially with the same rate, but delayed a bit. You could extract money from the market as arbitrage constantly, without changing the price ratios in the process. Like a free lunch, if it went up forever. Just like in a hotel with countable rooms, even if the hotel is full you can free a room for a new guest. Or for a thousand. Or for countably many. There's always room in that hotel. There's always juice to extract with arbitrage. In practice, both strategies (hotel, arbitrage) fail when your support ceases to be unbounded so it doesn't feel infinite anymore. That's when people panic.

The real problem is the communication in this untrustful cooperation game. The feedback cycles are powerful enough to be able to move the price anywhere, except in a catastrophic collapse of communication (i.e. Gox megalag, China "banning" Bitcoin, etc). The narrative weakens as the run is extending and some conservative investors pull out etc, then there is a brief moment of silence and there is a phase shift similar to a supercritical crystal collapse. Now it's all vibrating at resonance, in a fragile state of low entropy, then sudden quiet. One second/minute/week later, everybody realises that confusion has set in and pull the lever. The crystal is now shattered at a micro level, in a high entropy state. Work needs to be spent for nucleation to happen again.

[GaliX]

Either that or we have already broken out to the upside. Just need volume for confirmation.

or it proves, that these line mean nothing.

[shmadz]

Either that or we have already broken out to the upside. Just need volume for confirmation.

or it proves, that these line mean nothing.

sometimes it is true that the lines indeed mean nothing.

other times, if skillfully drawn, they can provide insight and guidance.

ignore the patterns at your own peril.

*edit* I do not mean to say that the above lines were drawn skillfully. I actually prefer my lines that I drew a few days ago, completely unskillfully.



my point is, that lines do exist, and until they are broken they tell a certain story. once they are broken they might tell a different tale, but one which is also worth listening to.

[simmo77]

... Which begs the questions:

Whose "lines" should we ignore (because they mean nothing)?
Whose "lines" should we heed (because they are insightful and provide guidance)?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[UnDerDoG81]

Never understood this lines but I drawed one from the sight of an optimist  

[shmadz]

Never understood this lines but I drawed one from the sight of an optimist  

this is actually exactly what I was talking about.

that line shows the absolute bottom for price, during the depicted time-frame.

if this line is broken, then the story changes.

[simmo77]

Never understood this lines but I drawed one from the sight of an optimist  

That's pretty much my point too. I see a lot of posts here with screenshots of Bitcoinwisdom with randomly drawn lines but not so much explanation/detail/Actual TA behind it... Usually the lines are simply placed in a manner that supports the poster's sentiment.


I'd like to know who everyone thinks does the best TA here (or on Tradingview etc) because I don't really have time to sort the wheat from the chaff myself...

[mighty jol]

that s what a trendline is, just a point of view, if you could draw all of them on a chart  well they would all look good, because people are following them, it s like driving on roads and following signs. everyone agrees they are good to follow so everyone gets where they want.

[hodlmybtc]

People dumping 

[chromosoma]

I told you few days ago, that bitstamp is going to be closed  due to some illegal activities. That wasnt just a rumor;)

[podyx]

What is going on?