Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[edwardspitz]

Looks like someone tried to hack LocalBitcoins:

LocalBitcoins received a very dangerous attack against the site infrastructure on Saturday 3.5.2014.
For now

• All user data and Bitcoins are safe;
• The site will be down for a while as the system is being rebuilt

Details
LocalBitcoins hosting provided received a request to restart the LocalBitcoins.com website server and give access to the server console (root) on Sat May 3 13:32:27. LocalBitcoins team did not initiate this request. For now, it looks like the request was made using spoofed email addresses and other weakness in the hosting provider support system.

• LocalBitcoins team was alerted about the abnormal activity when the hosting provider restarted the server.
• The attacker gained a root access to the server for ~40 minutes before the attacker was kicked out and the server shutdown.
• All data on the website server is encrypted. Manual actions are needed to make this data readable, so the attacker could not gain access to the data even when having a server console access.

It is very unlikely that the attacker gained access to any data;  LocalBitcoins is still performing full investigation on the matter.

• Bitcoins in hot wallet and cold wallet are safe, as LocalBitcoins runs its bitcoind and wallets on a separate server.
• LocalBitcoins team has started to rebuild the website server on fresh hardware.

LocalBitcoins team will make further announcements when the investigation proceeds and the site becomes available again.  We expect to spend at least 24 hours on this. LocalBitcoins team apologizes the issues the downtime may cause to the users.

It sounds like the localbitcoin guys did everything right. Anyways, it is incredible, that people are still able to pull the "reboot my server please" attack in 2014..

I don't mean to scare people, but if the attacker gained root access the attack was not just a (failed) hacking attempt but really serious. I doubt that everything was encrypted on the server, so the attacker may have had time to gain valuable insight into their systems that could be used for future exploits. I think it is good that Localbitcoins are being open about it, and it sounds like they are on top of the situation. But if the attacker has had a peek into their code it could be a bit of a nightmare for their security team.

[cech4204a]

I told you few days ago, that bitstamp is going to be closed  due to some illegal activities. That wasnt just a rumor;)

Please, enlighten us.

as far as my sources teold me. Bitstamp is involved is some illegal activity, presumably  some paedophile groups use  bitstamp to exchange money. That is why bitstamp  is going to be closed for investigation etc  next week or so.

If (or really, WHEN) it turns untrue, I hope someone here will remind me to have this guy banned.

that is almost like a bet.  It needs a timeline.. maybe one or two weeks (or NO later than the end of the month), if the closing of stamp does NOT happen, then Chromosoma = banned... he definitely has been spreading a lot of NON-substantive bitcoin is dead FUD>>>>>  that's for sure.

For all you know he could have been told a lie from someone else and truly believed it.

I wonder why you have this seeming burning desire to defend FUD spreaders.  Chromosoma seems to have developed a FUD spreading pattern of behavior.  Further, when a poster is making outrageous and difficult to believe claims, s/he should have some kind of affirmative obligation to provide some sources for that claim.. . or at least some logic concerning why the claim is plausible.. .. IN this case, Chromosoma is NOT only claiming plausible, but s/he is claiming high likelihood bordering on certainty that Stamp will be closing....   Probably, we are giving him/her too much credibility and airtime by merely discussing such baloney assertions.

why do you call Chinese situation FUD? Chinese situation is facts. it's a reality

Captain: what is FUD ?

[Odalv]

How it looks on log scale:


Same line on linear scale:


Same line on larger time scale:


:-) just interesting

[edwardspitz]

I told you few days ago, that bitstamp is going to be closed  due to some illegal activities. That wasnt just a rumor;)

Please, enlighten us.

as far as my sources teold me. Bitstamp is involved is some illegal activity, presumably  some paedophile groups use  bitstamp to exchange money. That is why bitstamp  is going to be closed for investigation etc  next week or so.

If (or really, WHEN) it turns untrue, I hope someone here will remind me to have this guy banned.

that is almost like a bet.  It needs a timeline.. maybe one or two weeks (or NO later than the end of the month), if the closing of stamp does NOT happen, then Chromosoma = banned... he definitely has been spreading a lot of NON-substantive bitcoin is dead FUD>>>>>  that's for sure.

For all you know he could have been told a lie from someone else and truly believed it.

I wonder why you have this seeming burning desire to defend FUD spreaders.  Chromosoma seems to have developed a FUD spreading pattern of behavior.  Further, when a poster is making outrageous and difficult to believe claims, s/he should have some kind of affirmative obligation to provide some sources for that claim.. . or at least some logic concerning why the claim is plausible.. .. IN this case, Chromosoma is NOT only claiming plausible, but s/he is claiming high likelihood bordering on certainty that Stamp will be closing....   Probably, we are giving him/her too much credibility and airtime by merely discussing such baloney assertions.

why do you call Chinese situation FUD? Chinese situation is facts. it's a reality

Captain: what is FUD ?

FUD = Statements that cause fear, uncertainty, and doubt

[cech4204a]

I told you few days ago, that bitstamp is going to be closed  due to some illegal activities. That wasnt just a rumor;)

Please, enlighten us.

as far as my sources teold me. Bitstamp is involved is some illegal activity, presumably  some paedophile groups use  bitstamp to exchange money. That is why bitstamp  is going to be closed for investigation etc  next week or so.

If (or really, WHEN) it turns untrue, I hope someone here will remind me to have this guy banned.

that is almost like a bet.  It needs a timeline.. maybe one or two weeks (or NO later than the end of the month), if the closing of stamp does NOT happen, then Chromosoma = banned... he definitely has been spreading a lot of NON-substantive bitcoin is dead FUD>>>>>  that's for sure.

For all you know he could have been told a lie from someone else and truly believed it.

I wonder why you have this seeming burning desire to defend FUD spreaders.  Chromosoma seems to have developed a FUD spreading pattern of behavior.  Further, when a poster is making outrageous and difficult to believe claims, s/he should have some kind of affirmative obligation to provide some sources for that claim.. . or at least some logic concerning why the claim is plausible.. .. IN this case, Chromosoma is NOT only claiming plausible, but s/he is claiming high likelihood bordering on certainty that Stamp will be closing....   Probably, we are giving him/her too much credibility and airtime by merely discussing such baloney assertions.

why do you call Chinese situation FUD? Chinese situation is facts. it's a reality

Captain: what is FUD ?

FUD = Statements that cause fear, uncertainty, and doubt

Thanks man much easier to read

[TERA]

Same line on larger time scale:


:-) just interesting

I have been following the lines you posted for the past 5 months expecting a reversal there but now it is clear that is BROKEN by looking at the weekly chart and the declining volume.  Now where is the NEXT support?

[p0peji]

Same line on larger time scale:


:-) just interesting

Next stop 150$?

[Odalv]

I know, .... worst case scenario $350/BTC at the end of year ? (and $2,000 in 2016  :-) )

[JayJuanGee]

I told you few days ago, that bitstamp is going to be closed  due to some illegal activities. That wasnt just a rumor;)

Please, enlighten us.

as far as my sources teold me. Bitstamp is involved is some illegal activity, presumably  some paedophile groups use  bitstamp to exchange money. That is why bitstamp  is going to be closed for investigation etc  next week or so.

If (or really, WHEN) it turns untrue, I hope someone here will remind me to have this guy banned.

that is almost like a bet.  It needs a timeline.. maybe one or two weeks (or NO later than the end of the month), if the closing of stamp does NOT happen, then Chromosoma = banned... he definitely has been spreading a lot of NON-substantive bitcoin is dead FUD>>>>>  that's for sure.

For all you know he could have been told a lie from someone else and truly believed it.

I wonder why you have this seeming burning desire to defend FUD spreaders.  Chromosoma seems to have developed a FUD spreading pattern of behavior.  Further, when a poster is making outrageous and difficult to believe claims, s/he should have some kind of affirmative obligation to provide some sources for that claim.. . or at least some logic concerning why the claim is plausible.. .. IN this case, Chromosoma is NOT only claiming plausible, but s/he is claiming high likelihood bordering on certainty that Stamp will be closing....   Probably, we are giving him/her too much credibility and airtime by merely discussing such baloney assertions.

why do you call Chinese situation FUD? Chinese situation is facts. it's a reality

This particular statement by Chromosoma was NOT about China.  S/he said that Bitstamp was going to be shut down... without providing hardly any substantiation(s) for such assertion...

Further, any subject matter can be used by FUD spreaders - even when they are combining true matters with untrue matters in order to build their case - such as claims that bitcoin is going to zero.  This particular latest assertion by Chromosoma did NOT involve China, yet.

[TERA]

It all depends on how much time it takes to decline. Theoretically it could either drop immediately to $120 or go sideways for a year at $400.

I don't know which will happen. All I know is that the next 1-2 years is not going to be productive for traders.

[Odalv]

It all depends on how much time it takes to decline. Theoretically it could either drop immediately to $120 or go sideways for a year at $400.

I'll prefer drop to single digits :-) .. and then I'll buy thousands.

[edwardspitz]

i dont think the last bottom will be tested, i think it will be somewhere above it

When it went down below $400 there was a lot of buying pressure and price quickly went up (and the move was backed up by volume). But meanwhile $450 has become the new "normal", so going below $400 again may not have the same affect (if it happens again). I think you wrote somewhere that we might go to $370. If the "fractal" repeats again then we can only hope that $370 holds. I personally think there is a good chance you are right, but it is not really based on anything other than what I feel is most likely.

Edit: English is not my first language 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[BitChick]

I know, .... worst case scenario $350/BTC at the end of year ? (and $2,000 in 2016  :-) )

Best case scenario?   $2,000 in June?  $350,000 in 2016? 

It is always good to see the positive in things. 

[gentlemand]

It all depends on how much time it takes to decline. Theoretically it could either drop immediately to $120 or go sideways for a year at $400.

I don't know which will happen. All I know is that the next 1-2 years is not going to be productive for traders.

Calling the next 1-2 years is very bold and more than slightly ludicrous.

[cech4204a]

i think all off you are wrong, nobody can predict price of BTC. And i can bet on this. it can go to 5$ in a day and back to 400$, it can also go to 1000$ in a day and back to 400$, you will never know unless you are big fish in the pond and you have some real deal piece of information or some big ammount of money.

[mah87]

New technologies are coming, just watch ripple grow and explode...One bank is already using the ripple network. This is just a matter of month before ripple grows exponentially, soon everybody will trade crypto currencies on ripple network.

[spooderman]

Bitcoin is going to be huge. It's going to be the next bitcoin!

[TERA]

It all depends on how much time it takes to decline. Theoretically it could either drop immediately to $120 or go sideways for a year at $400.

I don't know which will happen. All I know is that the next 1-2 years is not going to be productive for traders.

Calling the next 1-2 years is very bold and more than slightly ludicrous.

All I'm saying is that it is unproductive for traders. The movements will be slow and there will be a low volume and volatility most of the time. We won't see explosive 400-800% up movements or 50-80% down movements like we have in the past year. It is a consolidation and slow recovery phase. I'm not giving any specific price targets.

[JorgeStolfi]

Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Sunday May 04

Prediction valid for: Sunday 2014-05-04, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
Huobi's predicted price: 2600 CNY
Bitstamp's predicted price: 427 USD





[ Plot legend ]

Today (May/03) Huobi suddenly started trading heavily at 04:30 am local time (20:30 UTC).  Even though the weight of that hourly interval in the mean V_h is rather small (0.071), it resulted in a very large slumber activity ratio S = V_h/V_d (0.0169) and therefore a very low relevance weight W (0.003) for today's data point.

Still, with only two points since the last confirmed trend break, we must assume the straight line trend defined by them, namely A + B*(d-D0) where (d-D0) is the number of days since May/02, A = 2744, B = -72.

The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R.  That factor was 6.17 CNY/USD today (May/03), but given today's very low weight W it seemed better to retain the value assumed yesterday, namely R = 6.09. It was 6.08, 6.11, 6.22, 6.25, 6.05, 6.09 on the previous good sample times.
 
Checking the previous prediction

Prediction was posted on: Saturday 2014-05-03, 00:29 UTC
Prediction was valid for: Saturday 2014-05-03, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~18 hours later)

Huobi's predicted price: 2744 CNY
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 2672 CNY
Error: 72 CNY (~12 USD)

Bitstamp's predicted price: 451 USD
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 433 USD
Error: 18 USD
 
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