Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[mah87]

New technologies are coming, just watch ripple grow and explode...One bank is already using the ripple network. This is just a matter of month before ripple grows exponentially, soon everybody will trade crypto currencies on ripple network.

[spooderman]

Bitcoin is going to be huge. It's going to be the next bitcoin!

[TERA]

It all depends on how much time it takes to decline. Theoretically it could either drop immediately to $120 or go sideways for a year at $400.

I don't know which will happen. All I know is that the next 1-2 years is not going to be productive for traders.

Calling the next 1-2 years is very bold and more than slightly ludicrous.

All I'm saying is that it is unproductive for traders. The movements will be slow and there will be a low volume and volatility most of the time. We won't see explosive 400-800% up movements or 50-80% down movements like we have in the past year. It is a consolidation and slow recovery phase. I'm not giving any specific price targets.

[JorgeStolfi]

Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Sunday May 04

Prediction valid for: Sunday 2014-05-04, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
Huobi's predicted price: 2600 CNY
Bitstamp's predicted price: 427 USD





[ Plot legend ]

Today (May/03) Huobi suddenly started trading heavily at 04:30 am local time (20:30 UTC).  Even though the weight of that hourly interval in the mean V_h is rather small (0.071), it resulted in a very large slumber activity ratio S = V_h/V_d (0.0169) and therefore a very low relevance weight W (0.003) for today's data point.

Still, with only two points since the last confirmed trend break, we must assume the straight line trend defined by them, namely A + B*(d-D0) where (d-D0) is the number of days since May/02, A = 2744, B = -72.

The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R.  That factor was 6.17 CNY/USD today (May/03), but given today's very low weight W it seemed better to retain the value assumed yesterday, namely R = 6.09. It was 6.08, 6.11, 6.22, 6.25, 6.05, 6.09 on the previous good sample times.
 
Checking the previous prediction

Prediction was posted on: Saturday 2014-05-03, 00:29 UTC
Prediction was valid for: Saturday 2014-05-03, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~18 hours later)

Huobi's predicted price: 2744 CNY
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 2672 CNY
Error: 72 CNY (~12 USD)

Bitstamp's predicted price: 451 USD
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 433 USD
Error: 18 USD
 
NOTE: "The Internet: Learn what you know. Share what you don't." (unknown; qt. Daniel Harms)

[Jeezy911]

New technologies are coming, just watch ripple grow and explode...One bank is already using the ripple network. This is just a matter of month before ripple grows exponentially, soon everybody will trade crypto currencies on ripple network.

captain ripplebagholder

[gentlemand]

It all depends on how much time it takes to decline. Theoretically it could either drop immediately to $120 or go sideways for a year at $400.

I don't know which will happen. All I know is that the next 1-2 years is not going to be productive for traders.

Calling the next 1-2 years is very bold and more than slightly ludicrous.

All I'm saying is that it is unproductive for traders. The movements will be slow and there will be a low volume and volatility most of the time. We won't see explosive 400-800% up movements or 50-80% down movements like we have in the past year. It is a consolidation and slow recovery phase. I'm not giving any specific price targets.

I'll retain an open mind. Explosions or disastrous falls could arrive from anywhere at any time. It's a rather large planet out there.

[mah87]

New technologies are coming, just watch ripple grow and explode...One bank is already using the ripple network. This is just a matter of month before ripple grows exponentially, soon everybody will trade crypto currencies on ripple network.

captain ripplebagholder

you should try to learn from people who are here since a long time.... Each time I bring new arguments showing that ripple will be disruptive and that we'll trade crypto over this network ...

[bitcoinsrus]

New technologies are coming, just watch ripple grow and explode...One bank is already using the ripple network. This is just a matter of month before ripple grows exponentially, soon everybody will trade crypto currencies on ripple network.

captain ripplebagholder

i love ripple 

[uhoh]

New technologies are coming, just watch ripple grow and explode...One bank is already using the ripple network. This is just a matter of month before ripple grows exponentially, soon everybody will trade crypto currencies on ripple network.

captain ripplebagholder

i love ripple  

Those ripples are both tastier and more useful than the ripple 'going nowhere' gateway. Happy to be proven wrong, but it's just so rubbish.

(DISCLOSURE: I own XRP, because I can't be bothered to change them back into BTC)

[mah87]

As I said A bank is working with Ripple. LOL people are blind here.

[cech4204a]

New technologies are coming, just watch ripple grow and explode...One bank is already using the ripple network. This is just a matter of month before ripple grows exponentially, soon everybody will trade crypto currencies on ripple network.

captain ripplebagholder

you should try to learn from people who are here since a long time.... Each time I bring new arguments showing that ripple will be disruptive and that we'll trade crypto over this network ...

sorry for stupid question, but what is ripple ? is it crypto like BTC ? so what is the difference than? In which part it is better/worse than BTC ?

[uhoh]

As I said A bank is working with Ripple. LOL people are blind here.

1 partner bank does not a success make.

[gentlemand]

New technologies are coming, just watch ripple grow and explode...One bank is already using the ripple network. This is just a matter of month before ripple grows exponentially, soon everybody will trade crypto currencies on ripple network.

captain ripplebagholder

you should try to learn from people who are here since a long time.... Each time I bring new arguments showing that ripple will be disruptive and that we'll trade crypto over this network ...

sorry for stupid question, but what is ripple ? is it crypto like BTC ? so what is the difference than? In which part it is better/worse than BTC ?

No one knows. Just enjoy it.

[cech4204a]

New technologies are coming, just watch ripple grow and explode...One bank is already using the ripple network. This is just a matter of month before ripple grows exponentially, soon everybody will trade crypto currencies on ripple network.

captain ripplebagholder

you should try to learn from people who are here since a long time.... Each time I bring new arguments showing that ripple will be disruptive and that we'll trade crypto over this network ...

sorry for stupid question, but what is ripple ? is it crypto like BTC ? so what is the difference than? In which part it is better/worse than BTC ?

No one knows. Just enjoy it.

well i don't like copying, so i don't support anything else but BTC, since i think it was first crypto, am i right?

[edwardspitz]

It all depends on how much time it takes to decline. Theoretically it could either drop immediately to $120 or go sideways for a year at $400.

I don't know which will happen. All I know is that the next 1-2 years is not going to be productive for traders.

Calling the next 1-2 years is very bold and more than slightly ludicrous.

All I'm saying is that it is unproductive for traders. The movements will be slow and there will be a low volume and volatility most of the time. We won't see explosive 400-800% up movements or 50-80% down movements like we have in the past year. It is a consolidation and slow recovery phase. I'm not giving any specific price targets.

Is this because you believe we will see a "total capitulation" in the coming months (maybe sooner) that will bring us to a point where most traders loose interest in Bitcoin?

[ElectricMucus]

New technologies are coming, just watch ripple grow and explode...One bank is already using the ripple network. This is just a matter of month before ripple grows exponentially, soon everybody will trade crypto currencies on ripple network.

captain ripplebagholder

you should try to learn from people who are here since a long time.... Each time I bring new arguments showing that ripple will be disruptive and that we'll trade crypto over this network ...

There is just one problem, ripplelabs is sitting on it's hands, there is no progress in terms of usability, which perfectly explains the declining prices of xrp.
Just think of what startups are expected to deliver in a one year time period and compare that to the current state of ripple, it's no surprise.

[gentlemand]

New technologies are coming, just watch ripple grow and explode...One bank is already using the ripple network. This is just a matter of month before ripple grows exponentially, soon everybody will trade crypto currencies on ripple network.

captain ripplebagholder

you should try to learn from people who are here since a long time.... Each time I bring new arguments showing that ripple will be disruptive and that we'll trade crypto over this network ...

sorry for stupid question, but what is ripple ? is it crypto like BTC ? so what is the difference than? In which part it is better/worse than BTC ?

No one knows. Just enjoy it.

well i don't like copying, so i don't support anything else but BTC, since i think it was first crypto, am i right?

I think it would class itself as a payment protocol. The element that might be termed crypto, XRP, is the carriage mechanism for all the other currencies you can put in and out of it.

[JorgeStolfi]

As I said A bank is working with Ripple.

Could you explain exactly how it is doing that?

(A bank should not need cryptocurrencies to send money to its own branches in other countries.  The point of CCs to transfer money between partners that do not trust each other, isn't it?)

[Adrian-x]

It all depends on how much time it takes to decline. Theoretically it could either drop immediately to $120 or go sideways for a year at $400.

I don't know which will happen. All I know is that the next 1-2 years is not going to be productive for traders.

If you try your hand at trading alts there is lots of fun beta trading and some abstract and huge % gains and losses.

[ShroomsKit]

Quite amazing how Tera knows exactly what will happen in the next 2 years.