Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Searing]

Even you, Findingnemo, are getting into OG status with nearly two cycles under your belt, and it seems to me that the first cycle is the most difficult, yet it still frequently will take a couple of cycles for guys to really start to get to a point of having enough or more than enough bitcoin, unless they were able to front load their bitcoin investment at some point in their first cycle.

I might be able to relate to you, since I came to bitcoin (got started in bitcoin)  about 1 cycle before you, and I also came to bitcoin at or near the top of the cycle... Mine entry into bitcoin was November 2013 - even though my forum registration was February 2014.

I did the terrible mistake that one can make, I was supposed to enter the market in 2014 itself around the same time period you entered but I wasn't so sure about bitcoin because I had no idea what it is and people who told me about bitcoin isn't that much clear about what it is, they just created an image like bitcoin is investment which is one of the reason I had my doubts and went huge on other path that end up terrible again my huge capital went down not just to zero but to negative that is where I lost a cycle or else I would have been sitting with a bigger stash.

But, hey... Better late than never...

So my first cycle isn't very shaky, I knew what I missed and I swore that I am not gonna make the same mistake.

And finally, JJG claiming me to be OG and becoming legendary on the same day should be some kind of sign for all in...before the UPtober.

I had a buddy (Qazz...ie Don Guse worked for UNISYS and NASA) who was all over this stuff for crypto and algo and such early days) Anyway he passed away in 2005...I also

out in the sticks of Minnesota...so heard about it had no one to talk to and no skillz to do so....100% sure I'd have gotten into it ..even with him on the east coast and Unisys)

So in January 2019 I took the 4 towers of CPU's down for the lost gonzo bbs and literally was looking at them thinking it was a shame I could not use them for anything.

Time goes on. I get into Bitcoin with a KNC Jupiter 550gh Miner (bought July 1st 2013 at $69 BTC) and plugged it in (was full of water and in pieces...got it dried out and and I put

the fans and all that back together) turned it on, the day I got it, 0ctober 18th, 2013) with BTC at $150 sometime that day. A more depressed individual you did not see. I had to

post on the KNC site (got a rapid reply that day no idea why) on WHERE THE HELL IS THE SWITCH) I paid $5,131.80 with shipping and it had no frigging switch. The told me to get

a computer PSU and short out (i think it was pins 19 and 21) with a paper clip cut in 1/2 with black tape to hold it) My Goddaughter was there and saw me pick it up in soaked and

rattle to the box and to this day says it was the most depressed she ever saw me.....so I'm sitting in water in the basement ...shorting out the motherboard pins to get this

running. It started right up. Made I think 1 BTC as day. But sooooo depressed. I missed the boat..this piece of sh*t won't last....I should have just kept btc for that amount and

price july 1st at $69 (remember I got into this as a hobby ..bored...to save the $50 a month in electric to put the game server back up...pay for mu utils on the house for a year

and help micro-lending in India..which was a deal at the time) .....back my other point my buddy Qazz. I stumbled into at one time what as called WhaleTalk Chat...somehow

I was invited and all the big boys of today were on there...made their billions on bitcoin with laptops...I was trying to bow out but some knew me from bitcoinalk and wanted

to ask me about ASIC mining...eventually the chat went away from just newbs piling on..but hey...anyway on one time and 2 guys from NASA got on..had a .jpg for at the time

looked as complex as the circulation of the human body in detail..it was done over a high res map of the world...they bought super computer (at the time) to render it. What is this

we say....their names was nasa123 and nasa124 or some such with numbers behind....anyway (if i can find it i have copy of this chat saved someplace) anyway..they were

tracking a big time btc hack...for over 1 year or a 1.5 years or something like that. Are you having luck...NOPE they said but the MATH WAS GREAT....so I asked them if they

knew Don Guse above who died in 2025...oh he was their boss....he was a great guy...I started to hit my head on the counter top...all these friends of my buddy....who all worked

under him are easily bitcoin billionaires now..but I was so far out in the boonies I never got a call or had any contacts he had due to him passing..he would have been all over this

just like his buddies in whalechat.

so anyway...long story short (again I type as fast as I think) .............I get your pain......sometimes that is how life works I think. But back when it was hard to HODL I'd think

what would Qazz do...and it got me though the usual newb rough patches when i could have sold. Anyway I have to dig out the text capture somehow from backups from 2014

I think it was. But yeah, sometimes life is weird how stuff shakes out.

brad

[ChartBuddy]

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[ChartBuddy]

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[Biodom]

Where is my pump?
Where is my pump?
Where is my pump?

rhythm from Where is my mind from Pixies. 

Gnarls Barkley answers:

And I hope that you are having the time of your life
But think twice, that's my only advice, mm
Come on now, who do you, who do you, who do you
Who do you think you are?
Ha-ha-ha, bless your soul
You really think you're in control, well

....refrain follows

Not a haiku 

[ChartBuddy]

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[ChartBuddy]

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[Greyhats]

Have read back through a few pages and can I just say I’m shocked, feels like some of you 3+ cyclists are getting weak in the knees a bit too prematurely.

This isn’t even a dip, maybe you could call it liquidity grab but honestly it would need get down to 52ish for me to even start thinking about things.

This all bluster in the markets, those sth of <=3 months had an avg price of 111k. I have sat through so many tree shaking over the last while I can spot it a mile off now.

Now the only way is up, or at least higher chance than 50% that there are still some uppity events over the next few months.

Rusty pipe slappenings for any mention of

- 124k was the top
- I’m selling
- I’m disappointed
- I don’t like the sound of modems
- etc etc

[estenity]

anyway everything down in crypto...particularly the challengers ETH, sol, xrp...quite a red sea..

https://nitter.net/pic/orig/media%2FG1uBkdrXUAAVXhm.jpg

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[ChartBuddy]

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[JayJuanGee]

Even you, Findingnemo, are getting into OG status with nearly two cycles under your belt, and it seems to me that the first cycle is the most difficult, yet it still frequently will take a couple of cycles for guys to really start to get to a point of having enough or more than enough bitcoin, unless they were able to front load their bitcoin investment at some point in their first cycle.

I might be able to relate to you, since I came to bitcoin (got started in bitcoin)  about 1 cycle before you, and I also came to bitcoin at or near the top of the cycle... Mine entry into bitcoin was November 2013 - even though my forum registration was February 2014.

I did the terrible mistake that one can make, I was supposed to enter the market in 2014 itself around the same time period you entered but I wasn't so sure about bitcoin because I had no idea what it is and people who told me about bitcoin isn't that much clear about what it is, they just created an image like bitcoin is investment which is one of the reason I had my doubts and went huge on other path that end up terrible again my huge capital went down not just to zero but to negative that is where I lost a cycle or else I would have been sitting with a bigger stash.

But, hey... Better late than never...

For sure, better late than never.  I would have had made the same mistake based on where I was in my life in years earlier.  My style of investing was way too conservative and also tied up in various 401k and property type matters, so even the investment case for bitcoin in 2013, 2014 and/or 2015 might not have had been sufficiently convincing to divert my then investments away from the kinds of things that I had been investing in.

My lucky break (which might not have had seemed to have had been so lucky at the time) was that my ability to contribute to the 401k was cut off (sure I was able to keep the 401k, but I was not able to continue to contribute to it), so I had a certain sense of insecurity in terms of whether my then existing 401k was enough, even though it was decent size, I had reservations about it.. so I was largely motivated to invest outside of the 401k but also to invest in a way that was not already covered by the 401k.. so my somewhat superficial initial study of bitcoin was to conclude that it fit the bill of what i was looking for quite well.. so I established both a sufficiently aggressive investment into bitcoin yet at the same time, a somewhat conservative investment in terms of my wanting to make sure that I did not invest too much.. so I largely aimed at trying to get to around 10% of all of my then existing quasi-liquid investments to be in bitcoin. and sure I did not figure out 10% was my target right away, but by the time I was investing into bitcoin for a year, I was making some calculations of where I was at and what I thought might be reasonable, and largely I felt that i was getting to around 10% invested in bitcoin, so I concluded that I had gotten to a point of having enough... but it largely took a year to get there, yet also I could not stop continuing to invest in bitcoin in 2015 and 2016, even though in late 2014, I had already determined that I had gotten enough.

The point being that I am pretty sure that I just happen to be in the right place at the right time..

So my first cycle isn't very shaky, I knew what I missed and I swore that I am not gonna make the same mistake.

So how was your 2017 to 2020?   how long did it take you before you started to focus on accumulating bitcoin?  We now know that 2017 to 2020 would have had also been a good time to accumulate, even though surely we had a short lived top between about October and December 2017, yet still as long as you were not doing your frontloading between October 2017 and December 2017, you sill may well could have had ended up doing quite well.. like even in my case, there can be a bit demoralizing when buying bitcoin during a period that the price just kept getting cheaper and cheaper and then get stuck on flat (referring to 2015), yet the downfall between 2018 and 2020 might have felt in a similar kind of a way, yet retrospectively, it ended up being a great time to be buying bitcoin, even if some of your purchases might have had been during some of the higher price periods during that time.   

And finally, JJG claiming me to be OG and becoming legendary on the same day should be some kind of sign for all in...before the UPtober.

Congratulations.  Surely after such time participating in the forum the merits start to add up, and still in the beginning maybe it is harder to earn merits since no one knows you, and it takes a bit of time for other members to get to know you.. You have posted in way more topics than me.

My first 4 years on the forum, I hardly went outside of the WO thread, yet in 2018, I did begin to slowly start to go outside of the WO thread, yet still trying to mostly stay within bitcoin oriented threads rather than other topics.. even though sometimes I will participate a bit in other topics, too... yet there are still ONLY so many hours in the day and I lose patience with some of the topics, and I sometimes will get frustrated to get involved in (or to talk about) some other forum topics, unless they are at least attempted to be related to bitcoin.

And, yeah, I screwed up your nice round number of 1,000 merits.. by sending you another smerit.

https://x.com/pete_rizzo_/status/1971110768688103645?s=46

It is surely contagious for both governments and companies to be considering bitcoin as part of the their financial plan.. and the more announcements like this (to the extent that they deem it necessary to announce in advance), then the more contagion that seems to evolve.

https://x.com/pete_rizzo_/status/1971110768688103645?s=46

  

That's better to have the link and a bit of an idea what the link is about...

Even better if there were some kind of an actual human comment.. but hey, who am I to say?

~snip~

The headline isn't accurate. It's just one politician asking this, I wouldn't call that "considering". The part about inflation is laughable: inflation is created on ECB on purpose, and politicians (and even the ECB itself) act as if it's a force of nature or even "a ghost".

That's what I am talking about.  An actual person and critical thinking commentario.

#proof of human.

Bitcoin Resilience Tested: Price Loses Key Support Band, Drop to $105,000 Likely
The crypto king has lost ground as bearish momentum strengthens, with limited support from macroeconomic conditions further worsening sentiment.
Bitcoin Faces Correction - Spot Bitcoin ETFs are playing a critical role in the current selloff, with significant outflows marking the week. Since Monday, the funds have recorded withdrawals totaling $226 million. This is a sharp reversal from the steady inflows seen earlier this month. Such moves reflect growing caution among institutional investors.

Beyond ETFs, broader signals are pointing toward more downside risk for Bitcoin. The Supply Quantiles Cost Basis Model shows BTC slipping under the 0.95 quantile band, an area closely watched by analysts. This range typically represents heavy profit-taking zones for long-term holders.
A sustained decline below this risk band would confirm bearish conditions. Historically, such moves have preceded steep drawdowns, putting price targets between $105,000 and $90,000 in play. With macroeconomic headwinds and cautious institutional flows, Bitcoin’s outlook leans heavily toward weakness.

► https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-resilience-tested-price-loses-135642238.html

Sure.  Anything is possible, and as soon as there is momentum, then there will be attempts to get more momentum, including making statements about the supposed inevitability of lower numbers that may or may not end up playing out.

Good luck to any dumbfucks selling at these here prices with an expectation of buying back cheaper.

Even selling at higher prices with expectations of buying back cheaper would have had been dumb, but sitll traders going to trade and fail/refuse to adequately/sufficiently prepare for UP.

[Searing]

Have read back through a few pages and can I just say I’m shocked, feels like some of you 3+ cyclists are getting weak in the knees a bit too prematurely.

This isn’t even a dip, maybe you could call it liquidity grab but honestly it would need get down to 52ish for me to even start thinking about things.

This all bluster in the markets, those sth of <=3 months had an avg price of 111k. I have sat through so many tree shaking over the last while I can spot it a mile off now.

Now the only way is up, or at least higher chance than 50% that there are still some uppity events over the next few months.

Rusty pipe slappenings for any mention of

- 124k was the top
- I’m selling
- I’m disappointed
- I don’t like the sound of modems
- etc etc
just

with me it is simply the drop in price.....is like pressure on my HODL over the years...always there...but just another thing I'm annoyed by in life is that most people don't get it

that in 2035 99% of all btc will have been mined.

That and Blackrock really does wants my BTC...so usual moaning by myself...HODL'ing sooooo long....everyone does not get it...alone in my accumulation
 
I guess that is good...being odd that is...and was in HODL mode...now being odd in HODL'ing and not going whoopie with it all....

but boring is what got me into btc and HODL'ing and likely boring is how I will go out HODL'ing...folks can't have it both ways

my odd self got me into this and my odd self will likely keep me into this till I croak

but how folks will marvel at this....but any attempt to make them 'odd' to by HODL'ing btc is 'too scary' 'price is too high' 'it is a scam' ..this is I think about my 7th

time going through this since 2013 with friends and relatives...rinse/wash/repeat...but if they would just 'be odd' and join the btc 'cult' they would be much happier

even if just a bit of btc dust on PayPal...I'll state..but it is 'radioactive' to get 'some' is to slide down the slide of my delusions and they will put too much in and get burnt

as btc/crypto goes to nothing..or so I think the logic goes.....but what do I know......being in btc/crypto since 2013 and all of this...'must be a fluke' I guess they figure

brad

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[Tonimez]

Have read back through a few pages and can I just say I’m shocked, feels like some of you 3+ cyclists are getting weak in the knees a bit too prematurely.

This isn’t even a dip, maybe you could call it liquidity grab but honestly it would need get down to 52ish for me to even start thinking about things.

This all bluster in the markets, those sth of <=3 months had an avg price of 111k. I have sat through so many tree shaking over the last while I can spot it a mile off now.

Now the only way is up, or at least higher chance than 50% that there are still some uppity events over the next few months.

Rusty pipe slappenings for any mention of

- 124k was the top
- I’m selling
- I’m disappointed
- I don’t like the sound of modems
- etc etc
just

with me it is simply the drop in price.....is like pressure on my HODL over the years...always there...but just another thing I'm annoyed by in life is that most people don't get it

that in 2035 99% of all btc will have been mined.

That and Blackrock really does wants my BTC...so usual moaning by myself...HODL'ing sooooo long....everyone does not get it...alone in my accumulation
 
I guess that is good...being odd that is...and was in HODL mode...now being odd in HODL'ing and not going whoopie with it all....

but boring is what got me into btc and HODL'ing and likely boring is how I will go out HODL'ing...folks can't have it both ways

my odd self got me into this and my odd self will likely keep me into this till I croak

but how folks will marvel at this....but any attempt to make them 'odd' to by HODL'ing btc is 'too scary' 'price is too high' 'it is a scam' ..this is I think about my 7th

time going through this since 2013 with friends and relatives...rinse/wash/repeat...but if they would just 'be odd' and join the btc 'cult' they would be much happier

The closing price of 2013 was at about $754. This is a very unbelievable price in the recent bitcoin market. But what some new folks tend to forget is that bitcoin was also valued to be costly back then but today, looking back would appear that it was all cheap. This is what happens to panic sellers and people who don't have the habit of holding their bitcoin for long. If bitcoin can rise by over 14522% based on the current price of over $109k, then there's no indication that it would not surpass this extent when the entire bitcoin is mined which is just at 21 million.  Some claims has it that bitcoin would be crossing$1 million by 2030s during which it is expected that majority of the bitcoin has been mined.

even if just a bit of btc dust on PayPal...I'll state..but it is 'radioactive' to get 'some' is to slide down the slide of my delusions and they will put too much in and get burnt

as btc/crypto goes to nothing..or so I think the logic goes.....but what do I know......being in btc/crypto since 2013 and all of this...'must be a fluke' I guess they figure

brad

Being in bitcoin investment since 2013 must have been the Greatest dream of every crypto enthusiast even the procrastinators. Sometimes information trickle down the system but only few grab the opportunity and invests wisely. Going by the records, you could be well almost through with your third bitcoin cycle since going into bitcoin investment. This is enough time to have experienced the pros and cons of it all.  Sometimes people tend to panic with distrust when they hear that over time, the probability of bitcoin price rising is almost 100% and until investors accept to believe in bitcoin, they will keep loosing it.



This represents the hope of bitcoin through the years with the August 14th $124k ATH.

One big factor I think affects investors attitudes to bitcoin HODLing is age of the investor. An aged investor in 2013 might have either died off, handed over to his next of kin or sold off his bitcoin stash and retired to age. But I guess, a young investor has all the opportunities to give same feedback as you if he understands bitcoin investment and HODLing. So continuous accumulation by strategies which would pose little or no financial stress on your basic lifestyle like the DCA strategy could allow an investor to HODL until the remaining bitcoin is completely mined.

[ChartBuddy]

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[ChartBuddy]

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[OutOfMemory]

Have read back through a few pages and can I just say I’m shocked, feels like some of you 3+ cyclists are getting weak in the knees a bit too prematurely.

This isn’t even a dip, maybe you could call it liquidity grab but honestly it would need get down to 52ish for me to even start thinking about things.

This all bluster in the markets, those sth of <=3 months had an avg price of 111k. I have sat through so many tree shaking over the last while I can spot it a mile off now.

Now the only way is up, or at least higher chance than 50% that there are still some uppity events over the next few months.

Rusty pipe slappenings for any mention of

- 124k was the top
- I’m selling
- I’m disappointed
- I don’t like the sound of modems
- etc etc

When i started with buying BTC, it was all about "don't invest what you aren't ready to lose", in my case it was "invest what you don't have/want to use", and over the years, although, retrospectively investing too much into my exclusive "hobbies", which i need to keep my mind going, i'm at quite some multiples of what i have put into BTC now, as i have taken a bit of short-term upity gains off the table in between and lost a fraction in the shitcoin casino in 2018/19, so even if we'd fall to 80% down from $109k, i'd still have more than all of my invested fiat, while less than 20% of it all is taxable at a rate of a quarter.
I had times in my life when i didn't know how to get through the week (financial wise), as well as years of paying off debt, so my ass is chilled as fuck.

EDIT: And i love the sound of modems, TBH  

...also edited some numbers after looking up my books.

[JayJuanGee]

Have read back through a few pages and can I just say I’m shocked, feels like some of you 3+ cyclists are getting weak in the knees a bit too prematurely.
This isn’t even a dip, maybe you could call it liquidity grab but honestly it would need get down to 52ish for me to even start thinking about things.
 

The odds for anything below $80k seem to be quite low, and sure not impossible, but it seems way to early to be bouncing out of any bullrun..

But hey, if we go by time, then there have been a sufficient amount of months to have had allowed or  the overexuberant bubble to play itself out, yet something does not play right in regards to any kind of froth that tends to be needed in order to justify large corrections, and surely it could have had been the case that several bitcoin treasury companies have gone too far, but not even that makes sense...


Also, the 200-WMA is continuing to move up, but yeah, right now the 200-WMA is only at $53k, and we have had historical corrections (such as our low in 2022) in which the BTC spot price had gone down to 35% below the 200-WMA, and so that is pretty outrageously low, and not completely out of the question.. which is currently at about $35k...  

Every time during pausings and/or corrections in the bullmarkets there are guys calling for outrageously low prices, and that does help to shake some folks from their coins.. .. and for sure I would be wondering how much money I have left to  keep buying if the BTC prices go too low, even though each cycle I have been trying to prepare myself for more and more outrageous corrections, even though the corrections have tended to become less extreme.. even though our 2022 correction did make it to about 77.5%, even though our price run from the jumping off point was merely around 16.5x.

This time I am thinking around $27k to be our jumping off point for the run in October 2023, so so far we have ONLY had about 4.6x if we count $124,517 as our current top.

I know some guys like to measure top to top.. and that does not  excite me very much to go down that path, not that there is any exact science to the way that I like to measure jumping off points.  I considered $250 to be the late 2015 jumping off point for the 2017 price run.

We want to get ballpark ideas anyhow, to the extent  that any of the BTC price runs (or corrections) might trigger us to adjust our accumulation strategies, our maintenance strategies or our withdrawal strategies (hopefully sustainable withdrawal and incrementalism rather than planning to try to buy back cheaper).. which are also my personal preferences in regards to how to try to manage a life long investment (to ride the pig wherever it might go - in the spirit of BillyJoelAllen).

This all bluster in the markets, those sth of <=3 months had an avg price of 111k. I have sat through so many tree shaking over the last while I can spot it a mile off now.

Now the only way is up, or at least higher chance than 50% that there are still some uppity events over the next few months.

Rusty pipe slappenings for any mention of
- 124k was the top
 

Woops - I already mentioned it.. and yeah, I consider it a pretty low likelihoood (at least less than 49%)

- I’m selling
- I’m disappointed
- I don’t like the sound of modems
- etc etc

Some guys just like to whine, and they don't even necessarily act upon their whining... but yeah, any of us who have been largely accumulating and holding BTC have a lot to be grateful for when it comes to dee cornz.  And, you are not going to get me proclaiming upside scenarios as guaranteed, even though I am a wee bit late to provide my public service assignement of percentages for various top scenarios as I did in December 2021.

Have read back through a few pages and can I just say I’m shocked, feels like some of you 3+ cyclists are getting weak in the knees a bit too prematurely.
This isn’t even a dip, maybe you could call it liquidity grab but honestly it would need get down to 52ish for me to even start thinking about things.

This all bluster in the markets, those sth of <=3 months had an avg price of 111k. I have sat through so many tree shaking over the last while I can spot it a mile off now.
Now the only way is up, or at least higher chance than 50% that there are still some uppity events over the next few months.

Rusty pipe slappenings for any mention of
- 124k was the top
- I’m selling
- I’m disappointed
- I don’t like the sound of modems
- etc etc

When i started with buying BTC, it was all about "don't invest what you aren't ready to lose", in my case it was "invest what you don't have/want to use", and over the years, although, retrospectively investing too much into my exclusive "hobbies", which i need to keep my mind going, i'm at quite some multiples of what i have put into BTC now, as i have taken a bit of short-term upity gains off the table in between and lost a fraction in the shitcoin casino in 2018/19, so even if we'd fall to 80% down from $109k, i'd still have more than all of my invested fiat, while less than 20% of it all is taxable at a rate of a quarter.
I had times in my life when i didn't know how to get through the week (financial wise), as well as years of paying off debt, so my ass is chilled as fuck.

EDIT: And i love the sound of modems, TBH  
...also edited some numbers after looking up my books.

Try to be at least a wee bit realistic in your examples OOM.

Holy fucking shit, you are talking about the possibility of an 80% correction from $109k?

That would be $22k, and the BTC price (I mean the top) has gone way the fuck past $109k (even though we are at $109k right now).. 

From our top of $124.5k, an 80% correction would be $25k.

I don't see it to be even reasonable to be talking about those kinds of numbers as even possible (even though theoretically anything is possible).

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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