Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[philipma1957]

Please stop.  I don't like that image.  It is like the dog drinking coffee in the burning building and saying.  "This is fine."

Methinks maybe you missed the boating accident reference.

Not the first time that a joke (or an otherwise profound statement) has gone over my head.

What have you done to the real JJG? We want him back!
This is the shortest JJG message I have ever seen!
I would have expected a wall of text to justify this misunderstanding!

He has done shorter posts.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[BTCETFInvestor]

Bitcoin Tipped To Peak In 2026 – Here’s Why


Following a rather turbulent trading week, Bitcoin prices now sit below $110,000, representing a 12% decline from its all-time high at $124,457. Amid this situation, popular analyst Ted Pillows has shared an audacious market prediction that would douse fears of an impending cycle top.

Institutional Demand To Extend Bitcoin Market Cycle To 2026:
A typical crypto market cycle has always peaked in Q4 of the fourth year. This timing usually matches the post-halving hype and a strong wave of retail and institutional market demand.  Such behavior is observed in the last two cycles when Bitcoin reached a market top of $19,700 in December 2017, and $69,000 in November 2021. However, Ted Pillows postulates the present market is likely to present a different pattern, which aligns with the US business cycle.

Generally, the US business policy centered around liquidity, interest rates, and inflation all play a heavy role in Bitcoin demand. Notably, the US Federal Reserve implemented its first rate cut of 2025 this September, and market analysts expect the monetary authority to maintain this dovish approach for the next six months. In particular, JP Morgan predicts the Fed will implement two more rate cuts in 2025 and one in 2026. This drop in interest rates is expected to boost investors’ access to liquidity through borrowing and support investments in risk assets such as Bitcoin.

Furthermore, the introduction of Bitcoin Spot ETFs has also changed the structure of inflows. Notably, these investments have improved the ease of institutional investment in Bitcoin, with the present cumulative ETF inflows valued at $57.23 billion. Importantly, these heavy inflows, coupled with the emergence of Bitcoin treasury companies, have all contributed to maturing the Bitcoin market that is now likely to be driven by macroeconomic cycles rather than the traditional crypto-native cycles.

If US market forces prove dominant, Ted Pillows expects Bitcoin to reach a market peak in Q1 or Q2 2026, indicating the potential for higher price targets despite recent price drops.

► https://www.mitrade.com/insights/news/live-news/article-3-1154660-20250927

[philipma1957]

Bitcoin Tipped To Peak In 2026 – Here’s Why


Following a rather turbulent trading week, Bitcoin prices now sit below $110,000, representing a 12% decline from its all-time high at $124,457. Amid this situation, popular analyst Ted Pillows has shared an audacious market prediction that would douse fears of an impending cycle top.

Institutional Demand To Extend Bitcoin Market Cycle To 2026:
A typical crypto market cycle has always peaked in Q4 of the fourth year. This timing usually matches the post-halving hype and a strong wave of retail and institutional market demand.  Such behavior is observed in the last two cycles when Bitcoin reached a market top of $19,700 in December 2017, and $69,000 in November 2021. However, Ted Pillows postulates the present market is likely to present a different pattern, which aligns with the US business cycle.

Generally, the US business policy centered around liquidity, interest rates, and inflation all play a heavy role in Bitcoin demand. Notably, the US Federal Reserve implemented its first rate cut of 2025 this September, and market analysts expect the monetary authority to maintain this dovish approach for the next six months. In particular, JP Morgan predicts the Fed will implement two more rate cuts in 2025 and one in 2026. This drop in interest rates is expected to boost investors’ access to liquidity through borrowing and support investments in risk assets such as Bitcoin.

Furthermore, the introduction of Bitcoin Spot ETFs has also changed the structure of inflows. Notably, these investments have improved the ease of institutional investment in Bitcoin, with the present cumulative ETF inflows valued at $57.23 billion. Importantly, these heavy inflows, coupled with the emergence of Bitcoin treasury companies, have all contributed to maturing the Bitcoin market that is now likely to be driven by macroeconomic cycles rather than the traditional crypto-native cycles.

If US market forces prove dominant, Ted Pillows expects Bitcoin to reach a market peak in Q1 or Q2 2026, indicating the potential for higher price targets despite recent price drops.

► https://www.mitrade.com/insights/news/live-news/article-3-1154660-20250927

I have been saying by by 4 year cycle for over six months. Let's see if i am correct.

[cSentinentyZ]

I have been saying by by 4 year cycle for over six months. Let's see if i am correct.

Did you mean bye bye? Only what I think is the price fluctuations to reduce but bitcoin may still make it down to $75000 or down to $60000. Investors will have confidence and the price will later increase and get to ATH.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[WatChe]

Sometimes, it can be frustrating dealing with real people about the value of bitcoin.

Sure.  Spending bitcoin is fun, yet at the same time, when we are dealing with people who we are trying to teach financial responsibility and good financial habits, frequently, spending bitcoin is not really the habit that we should be teaching them... and some folks (including young people perhaps moreso to grow  out of the habit, but it exists with adults too) have such difficulties to employ low time preference behaviors, which should be part of the whole package of knowing about bitcoin in a practical way that goes into a cycle or two or even longer, depending upon financial circumstances...

spending bitcoin is not really the habit, make sure you have enough money to meet daily requirements before saying that.

[MrNata]

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[cocadalcan]

I have been saying by by 4 year cycle for over six months. Let's see if i am correct.

Did you mean bye bye? Only what I think is the price fluctuations to reduce but bitcoin may still make it down to $75000 or down to $60000. Investors will have confidence and the price will later increase and get to ATH.

I have a lot of doubts about whether there is any possibility of this happening. Or if there is more dump,..... sounds ridiculous. The most probable DIP flowing of this time, you are dragging. In the future you will only see this price of Bitcoin on the graph. Which is leaving now..


https://x.com/binance/status/1971666136837116140

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Tonimez]

I have been saying by by 4 year cycle for over six months. Let's see if i am correct.

Did you mean bye bye? Only what I think is the price fluctuations to reduce but bitcoin may still make it down to $75000 or down to $60000. Investors will have confidence and the price will later increase and get to ATH.

I think this is one of the most bitcoin - hostile write up I'm reading about bitcoin since the past month. What indicators are you basing this assertion on? Even though no amount of market corrections is impossible, volatility occurs both ways. But thinking of a 40% - 52% dip doesn't look very real at least for the rest of the year as there are signs of achieving a new ATH before wrapping up the year.

Bitcoin has been resistant lately with a back and forth movement. If you are patiently waiting to buy at $75k or $60k, you may have to wait till infinity. Investors are looking forward to new waves and the current price is not a bad one too at $109k.



The chart is not bad and I suppose bitcoin should hit $130k without dipping to $80k before the end of the year.
However it not abnormal for any markdown stage of bitcoin, it is usually characterized by high volatility, which comes with sentiments and depression. If you are holding any bitcoin, it's still not time to sell. You can continue buying instead of waiting for the dip that may not happen.

[philipma1957]

I have been saying by by 4 year cycle for over six months. Let's see if i am correct.

Did you mean bye bye? Only what I think is the price fluctuations to reduce but bitcoin may still make it down to $75000 or down to $60000. Investors will have confidence and the price will later increase and get to ATH.

of course I mean bye bye.


and my opinion is the  4 year cycle may not happen .

which means we would need to hit the ATH later then 2025 say 2026.

I am basically saying the quoted article is relating my thoughts which I voiced over 6 months ago


► https://www.mitrade.com/insights/news/live-news/article-3-1154660-20250927

I talked about this quite a while ago.

Now for me and that author to be correct we need an ATH on 2026 not this fall.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[BTCETFInvestor]

Much lower volume on weekends. 

[JayJuanGee]

I have been saying by by 4 year cycle for over six months. Let's see if i am correct.

Did you mean bye bye? Only what I think is the price fluctuations to reduce but bitcoin may still make it down to $75000 or down to $60000. Investors will have confidence and the price will later increase and get to ATH.

Would you like to bet?

I will bet you that BTC will never go below $75k again.

Sure it is possible that you could win such bet, but from my perspective, it is worth betting.

We can close out the bet at the end of 2027 or if the BTC price goes over $280k before it goes below $75k..

Of course, if bitcoin goes below $75k, then you would win such bet.

Are you game?

Sometimes, it can be frustrating dealing with real people about the value of bitcoin.

Sure.  Spending bitcoin is fun, yet at the same time, when we are dealing with people who we are trying to teach financial responsibility and good financial habits, frequently, spending bitcoin is not really the habit that we should be teaching them... and some folks (including young people perhaps moreso to grow  out of the habit, but it exists with adults too) have such difficulties to employ low time preference behaviors, which should be part of the whole package of knowing about bitcoin in a practical way that goes into a cycle or two or even longer, depending upon financial circumstances...

spending bitcoin is not really the habit, make sure you have enough money to meet daily requirements before saying that.

Of course, if you run out of money, and all that you have left is bitcoin, then you would spend your bitcoin.

Otherwise, we should be attempting to figure out ways that we are building our bitcoin in order to get to overaccumulation status.

Sure, you can do what you like.  I find it problematic to be teaching high time preference practices to those who are already inclined towards high time preference practices...  kids and/or adults who have not learned ways to lower their time preferences, so they still act like kids who can never get enough.

I have been saying by by 4 year cycle for over six months. Let's see if i am correct.

Did you mean bye bye? Only what I think is the price fluctuations to reduce but bitcoin may still make it down to $75000 or down to $60000. Investors will have confidence and the price will later increase and get to ATH.

of course I mean bye bye.
and my opinion is the  4 year cycle may not happen .

which means we would need to hit the ATH later then 2025 say 2026.
I am basically saying the quoted article is relating my thoughts which I voiced over 6 months ago


► https://www.mitrade.com/insights/news/live-news/article-3-1154660-20250927
I talked about this quite a while ago.

Now for me and that author to be correct we need an ATH on 2026 not this fall.

In March or so, you said that ATH (which was then $109.3k) would not be breached until October, but then it ended up being breached in late May.

You keep throwing out your theories, sooner or later you will end up being correct.

[NeuroticFish]

Would you like to bet?
...
We can close out the bet at the end of 2027

Make sure you use escrow, else the newbie will be long gone when you'll want to cash in 

[Searing]

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Cycle does not matter if you HODL for more then 10 years. All it does is give you 'warm fuzzies' on price pumps....and 'ah shit fuzzies' on price dumps.

I tell newbs to sell crap in attic or however get some btc dust on PayPal and or Coinbase. Then HODL /forget about it as it accumulates till 2035 when

btc is 99% mined. Then talk to me.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com