Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JorgeStolfi]

I hate huobi. Why is it on the order book I can see 200CNY of the ask side but only 30 CNY of the bid side.

Yeah.  Somce clients create zillions of tiny book entries, with small BTC amounts and at prices that are often 1-2 cents of yuan apart. Thus when the books are truncated after N entries they are still very close to the spread.

[1713240560]

1713240560

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[adamstgBit]

Jorge = the speculative FUD machine

that cost per transaction is baloney it assumes everyone is mining with equipment 6-12 months out of date .

the network will always self adjusts itself anyway.

there will be alot more TX in the future, and if there's not hash rate will go down, and bring down the cost / TX.

its not rocket science its simple supply/demand economic law.



lets go buy a bitcoin!



Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

[shmadz]

banks have no problem buying bubblicious derivatives, lending money to poeple that are likely to default in < 12months.

wtf is this "risk profile" bullshit

no kidding

at least we're done with the "first they ignore you, then they ridicule you" phase, we are now entering the transition to the "then they fight you" phase.

still a lot of ridicule out there, and I think the fight will be long and bloody as well, but eventually we will reach the "win" phase.

if we can't win against the vampire squids then I'll probably die trying.

[JorgeStolfi]

Jorge = the speculative FUD machine

Wait, I am pointing to charts issued from the Holy Sanctum of the Bitcoin Church -- and *I* am the FUD machine?  

that cost pre transaction is babylon it assumes everyone is mining with equipment 6-12 months out of date .

Is it?  What factor should one apply to those number to get the real cost?

lets go buy a bitcoin!

But if I bought even one satoshi, I would not be able to brag about my trading performace any more.  

And I would be racking my brains now, trying to decide whether I should sell half of my bitcoin holdings and use the fiat to double the other half, or create my own private exchange so that I can trade with myself and not worry about the price anymore.  

[knightcoin]

but ..  Granny was young once and got a boyfriend

[aminorex]

Is it?  What factor should one apply to those number to get the real cost?

You can't.  You have throw away that number and  compute a valid number.  It costs about $2k to buy 1 ghps, which burns .2 joule/gh at $0.1/kwh, and which gives you a 1.3x10^-8 chance at every 25 btc block reward (one every 9 minutes).  That difficulty increases 20% at each adjustment, every 12.8 days.  Now calculate.

[aminorex]

banks have no problem buying bubblicious derivatives, lending money to poeple that are likely to default in < 12months.

wtf is this "risk profile" bullshit

It's called red-lining, and it's only illegal if you are in a protected class.

[shmadz]

banks have no problem buying bubblicious derivatives, lending money to poeple that are likely to default in < 12months.

wtf is this "risk profile" bullshit

It's called red-lining, and it's only illegal if you are in a protected class.

it's downright criminal is what it is

what exactly is a "protected class" anyways?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[shmadz]

Is it?  What factor should one apply to those number to get the real cost?

You can't.  You have throw away that number and  compute a valid number.  It costs about $2k to buy 1 ghps, which gives you a 1.3x10^-8 chance at every 25 btc block reward (one every 9 minutes).  That difficulty increases 20% at each adjustment, every 12.8 days.  Now calculate.

"now calculate" - hehe, yeah, right.

as a miner for 3 years now, I would say that my opinion of the "cost" of mining will closely correlate with the bitcoin price moving forward.

there will be significant lag, as there is a lot of sunk money in bitcoin mining, but my greatest hope would be the graph below:


credit to TERA for this nearly famous chart.  


such a scenario would dampen mining in a profound way. we really had a great push when asics were first realized, and then implemented, and now they have been executed.

Now we are reaching the boundaries of what is currently possible. The physical boundary of heat is IMO the biggest barrier at this time.

Until the next "quantum leap" in computing, mining bitcoin is going to get quite boring. (it already pretty much is)

altcoins keep it fun, kinda, and I can see the real innovation in trying to find new super-secure, energy-efficient, wipes-your-ass-for-you types of encryption.

the only problem is that with 5 years of accounting records behind it, bitcoin has a large incentive to stick around...

... sorry, I started out trying to pick a fight and now I don't even remember what I was mad about. isn't the internet great?

[Richy_T]

banks have no problem buying bubblicious derivatives, lending money to poeple that are likely to default in < 12months.

wtf is this "risk profile" bullshit

It's called red-lining, and it's only illegal if you are in a protected class.

it's downright criminal is what it is

what exactly is a "protected class" anyways?

Democrat voters.

[PoolMinor]

All aboard!!!

[JorgeStolfi]

Is it?  What factor should one apply to those number to get the real cost?

You can't.  You have throw away that number and  compute a valid number.  It costs about $2k to buy 1 ghps, which burns .2 joule/gh at $0.1/kwh, and which gives you a 1.3x10^-8 chance at every 25 btc block reward (one every 9 minutes).  That difficulty increases 20% at each adjustment, every 12.8 days.  Now calculate.

Thanks.  You mean that a 1 GH/s machine costs 2000$ and consumes 0.2 W? Not 0.2 kW = 200 W?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[shmadz]

banks have no problem buying bubblicious derivatives, lending money to poeple that are likely to default in < 12months.

wtf is this "risk profile" bullshit

It's called red-lining, and it's only illegal if you are in a protected class.

it's downright criminal is what it is

what exactly is a "protected class" anyways?

Democrat voters.

thank you for your answer, but apparently you miss-took me for someone intelligent educated.

could you please explain or elaborate?

perhaps you mean that the voting class has some kind of protection from the ruling class? I just don't get it.

[sidhujag]

Modi is elected.. that is bullish bitcoin.

sure. and the muslim riot within three months

Muslims actually dont mind him.. its terrorists hes after. They know its a problem in their culture.
Still i wouldnt be surprised if modi went full pro bitcoin and India took charge.

He is known as being socially as well as financially conservative.  I don't know if that is accurate or what it means in regards to btc.

I think he is far less conservative than the last party.. which is why ppl are celebrating there. I think its bullish for us.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JorgeStolfi]

Thanks.  You mean that a 1 GH/s machine costs 2000$ and consumes 0.2 W? Not 0.2 kW = 200 W?

The numbers that I find googling are closer to 0.5 J/GH a couple of months ago.  Is 0.2 J/GH the current value?