Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

Looks like people are using their BTC for alt frenzies. Darkcoin has had higher volume on Mintpal alone.

Higher volume than what?
As long as it's only traded against btc there , i doubt it can have "higher" volume.

If the coinmarket cap is any indicator of volume, it appears that dark coin has achieved about half the volume of trading volume of BTC in the last 24 hours - even though the actual market cap of darkcoin is more than 200X smaller than BTC.  Does NOT mean that Darkcoin is more successful than BTC, just that there may be a lot of volatility with darkcoin, and money to be made.. and likely easier to manipulate prices by smaller players.

The volume of btc is calculated only from the usd/btc pair.
It doesn't include ltc/btc  , bc/btc

So , that indicator is not that accurate from my point of view.

If true, that is a pretty big deal, especially with bitcoin b/c there are a lot of conversions going on with bitcoin. 

Also, if true, then similar inaccuracies are reflected in the other cryptos, too... even though bitcoin remains the most common conversion crypto.

Does anyone know about a better one-stop shopping spot to obtain the measurement for the totality of bitcoin volume?

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[shmadz]

What are the 5 last things you paid for with BTC (without converting it to USD before the deal was done) and how long ago were these purchases made?

This is a good question, but could you clarify the bit about the conversion part?

do you mean that I personally had to convert to fiat? or that I used a bitpay like service and effectively I paid in bitcoin and the vendor received fiat?

cuz I've done tons of bitpay like purchases, where I don't have to convert shit.

but if you're talking about a transaction where I pay bitcoin directly to the vendor and the vendor actually accepts bitcoin and doesn't immediately convert to fiat?

I can only think of 2 scenarios where that has occurred.

- when I bought something from someone on this forum.
- when I tipped someone from this forum because they freely gave me advice or information that I directly profited from.

and that's about it/


*added a bit of ranting - viewer discretion is advised*

This is why I think that all this regulation talk is complete bullshit. They should first prove that they can effectively regulate their own failing currency before they go ahead and fuck up ours.

Shmadz:   You are changing the question.  All that matters is what you did.  If you bought with bitcoin, then you have accomplished an affirmative response to the question.  It does NOT matter what the receiver of your bitcoin did, and you may NOT even know what they did - whether they converted the BTC to fiat or NOT.

alright Jay, in that case my last 5 purchases were:
1- cointerra box - 3 months ago - (has already arrived only doing 1550 GH/s currently because one core likes to go to 120C and then reboot the machine, at 7 level it only reaches around 90 and the thing seems stable, I'm going to experiment this weekend what level it needs to be at to run from one single 15A 110V standard NA connection)

2- neptune - 6 months ago ( but now I get 2 for 1 apparently, someday, maybe, wheeee! but still nothing tangible has arrived)

3- some hookups to make power supplies run when they're not connected to computers - *I think it was from Cablez, but I can't remember, that was like a year ago

4- mostly donations to bitcointalk members like arepo and organofcorti

5- I bought a bunch of second-hand video games that I've never played from some online vendor that was operating back in 2012, they got at least 50 BTC of my business.

but this brings me back to my rant, there should be no push to regulate bitcoin itself - it is self-regulating. The only thing they should be looking at is the conversion into and out of the fiat that they have jurisdiction over.

more than that, it is almost impossible to perpetrate fraud inside of the bitcoin system. -- the exchanges between the currencies should probably be regulated, but I think the main point that regulators need to understand is that bitcoin network itself is self-regulating and needs no oversight (also they couldn't effectively regulate it if they tried, but that's another discussion)

[JorgeStolfi]

Does anyone know about a better one-stop shopping spot to obtain the measurement for the totality of bitcoin volume?

User @JorgeStolfi tried to do that for a while, but gave up some time ago, partly because he found that several large Chinese exchanges (perhaps 30% or more of the total) were not listed in any convenient source, not even in bitcoinwisdom.

[mwm4bcf]

Hello,

I've been reading (only) this thread for some time now and would like to pose a question for discussion:

Doesn't the current low volume conditions make this market a potential "easy target" for someone (or some entity) to manipulate it for profit?

Seems likely to me.

Thanks in advance for your thoughts on this.

Mark

[niothor]

Does anyone know about a better one-stop shopping spot to obtain the measurement for the totality of bitcoin volume?

User @JorgeStolfi tried to do that for a while, but gave up some time ago, partly because he found that several large Chinese exchanges (perhaps 30% or more of the total) were not listed in any convenient source, not even in bitcoinwisdom.

And I was just going to nominate you for the job.
Such disappointment.

[niothor]

Hello,

I've been reading (only) this thread for some time now and would like to pose a question for discussion:

Doesn't the current low volume conditions make this market a potential "easy target" for someone (or some entity) to manipulate it for profit?

Seems likely to me.

Thanks in advance for your thoughts on this.

Mark

If you try to manipulate the market , you need a bit of volume to do so and that will wake up both bears and bulls changing the whole picture.

[RandomPedestrianN9]

Doesn't the current low volume conditions make this market a potential "easy target" for someone (or some entity) to manipulate it for profit?

Yes, it does make it easy target, Mark.     I too have been reading mostly this thread.    Miners have a huge reason to keep the price up so their mined coins pay off over consumed time, electricity and purchased HW.

[shmadz]

back on topic, this flatness is sucking big time.



I'm sure you all remember the this song


here is a slightly more upbeat version, I skipped to the proudhon song part, I recommend you go back to the beginning and listen to the whole thing, if you're bored.
http://youtu.be/K3zV4V4jZTk?t=51m

[Walsoraj]

http://www.coindesk.com/what-block-chain-analysis-tells-bitcoin/

Summary: capitulation from last December's bubble hasn't even begun.

[JorgeStolfi]

there should be no push to regulate bitcoin itself - it is self-regulating. The only thing they should be looking at is the conversion into and out of the fiat that they have jurisdiction over.

more than that, it is almost impossible to perpetrate fraud inside of the bitcoin system. [...]

I don't know what you mean by "regulate bitcoin" or "inside the bitcoin system", but fraud in bitcoin-only enterprises and investments is absurdly common, even of we ignore MtGOX and other exchange scams.  For example, Danny Brewster was able to pull the Neo & Bee scam because its shares were sold for bitcoins through a Panamanian company that was not registered as a stock exchange, not even in Panama.  He probably would not have been able to do a real IPO with ordinary money on a regulated exchange; his past "career" in the UK and the lack of a real business plan would have been exposed.

[RandomPedestrianN9]

Guys, if you dont care that merchants are not holding onto their coins.....and not many new people with fiat are arriving in the system...do you think current price levels are sustainable? Merchants care about USDs received from your purchases and as third party services are selling your coins = eating what little fiat there is left, shouldnt the price drop in the long term?

[shmadz]

there should be no push to regulate bitcoin itself - it is self-regulating. The only thing they should be looking at is the conversion into and out of the fiat that they have jurisdiction over.

more than that, it is almost impossible to perpetrate fraud inside of the bitcoin system. [...]

I don't know what you mean by "regulate bitcoin" or "inside the bitcoin system", but fraud in bitcoin-only enterprises and investments is absurdly common, even of we ignore MtGOX and other exchange scams.  For example, Danny Brewster was able to pull the Neo & Bee scam because its shares were sold for bitcoins through a Panamanian company that was not registered as a stock exchange, not even in Panama.  He probably would not have been able to do a real IPO with ordinary money on a regulated exchange; his past "career" in the UK and the lack of a real business plan would have been exposed.

apologies prof, what I mean is that fraud or corruption "within the bitcoin system" is almost impossible.

"within the bitcoin system" I simply mean to indicate bitcoin-only transactions, which are completely transparent on the blockchain.

I am positing that all of the fraud and corruption happens at the conversion level, and is a symptom of the level of corruption that exists in the current system.

[niothor]

Guys, if you dont care that merchants are not holding onto their coins.....and not many new people with fiat are arriving in the system...do you think current price levels are sustainable? Merchants care about USDs received from your purchases and as third party services are selling your coins = eating what little fiat there is left, shouldnt the price drop in the long term?

If I agree with you that bitcoin will go to 0 because of the merchants selling the coins , do you agree on not asking the same question again and again ?

[shmadz]

Guys, if you dont care that merchants are not holding onto their coins.....and not many new people with fiat are arriving in the system...do you think current price levels are sustainable? Merchants care about USDs received from your purchases and as third party services are selling your coins = eating what little fiat there is left, shouldnt the price drop in the long term?

dude, I get that you're new, but I think you just don't quite get what this means yet. You're well on your way, and no one can tell you this kind of stuff, you really need to figure it out for yourself.

good luck

[octaft]

Guys, if you dont care that merchants are not holding onto their coins.....and not many new people with fiat are arriving in the system...do you think current price levels are sustainable? Merchants care about USDs received from your purchases and as third party services are selling your coins = eating what little fiat there is left, shouldnt the price drop in the long term?

dude, I get that you're new, but I think you just don't quite get what this means yet. You're well on your way, and no one can tell you this kind of stuff, you really need to figure it out for yourself.

good luck

No one can tell him this kind of stuff because I suspect at least half the people on here act like they know the answers, but don't. You can spot them easily by the "look at the previous threads," which to me means "look at the previous threads, but I totally never did because TO DA MOON!"

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[EuroTrash]

Guys, if you dont care that merchants are not holding onto their coins.....and not many new people with fiat are arriving in the system...do you think current price levels are sustainable? Merchants care about USDs received from your purchases and as third party services are selling your coins = eating what little fiat there is left, shouldnt the price drop in the long term?

dude, I get that you're new, but I think you just don't quite get what this means yet. You're well on your way, and no one can tell you this kind of stuff, you really need to figure it out for yourself.

good luck

No one can tell him this kind of stuff because I suspect at least half the people on here act like they know the answers, but don't. You can spot them easily by the "look at the previous threads," which to me means "look at the previous threads, but I totally never did because TO DA MOON!"

But... But... It was debated recently enough (again) in this very same thread!

[JorgeStolfi]

http://www.coindesk.com/what-block-chain-analysis-tells-bitcoin/
Summary: capitulation from last December's bubble hasn't even begun.

With a link to an interesting article:
http://www.ofnumbers.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/Learning-from-Bitcoins-past.pdf

[xalex]

According to my data, the number of new users learning about Bitcoin is still decreasing.

(This is an index number based on statistics from websites/webpages explaining about bitcoin.)

http://btc.pizzacat.net/threerabbitswithhatssittingonsantaslapdancingrockettothemoon/learnaboutbtc.png

Today's index (not plotted here but on hourly chart) looks like it's going to be a new yearly low for a Friday.

This is the most interesting thing I've seen on the wall thread in at least a week:  Lots of new bits of data.   Please, please give us more color on what is being charted, otherwise the bits are wasted.

tl;dr

Lots more people were looking up information about bitcoin when it was peaking in price. That chart starts in January when the price was still over $800. As the price relaxed there was less interest (other than when significant, fast drops in price occurred)

The chart would be FAR more meaningful if it extended back to about april of last year, when the price was stable at $90-120, so you could see the change in interest from then through the price jump and to now. I am sure its a few times higher now than a year ago

Aminorex: There are a lot of websites and webpages explaining about Bitcoin. If the statistical data is not public (only a few are), i figure out on what type of machine the website is running. Depending on the type of machine, i use common techniques such as remote resource load monitoring trough webserver response times to create an index number based on the difference compared to average load at stable times.
It looks like the data is dominated by the wikipedia page statistics, yet it is weighted relatively low considering it is linked within many of the other resources i get the data from.
It takes some work to consistently get an evenly weighted index number for the graph due to sites disappearing and new ones being made. To be honest, it is quite a mess due to lack of interest on my part to keep up   but hey, i'm a hacker (the good kind), not a financial analyst  

Klondike_bar: The script has been monitoring (and mirroring) this data for bitcoin, litecoin, peercoin and feathercoin since about june 2012. However, the data folder is over 1300Gb and the code to analyze it is slow, even after a lot of efficiency updates. I'ts not exactly high end hardware. I have it running right now and i was wondering the same thing as you, so the last couple of days i'm spending my time trying to speed up the process.

tl;dr
Used some fairly unknown techniques to get usage data from websites combined with publicly available data.
Hacking around my code to speed up the 1TB+ of data filter to generate graph back to april 2013.

[shmadz]

Guys, if you dont care that merchants are not holding onto their coins.....and not many new people with fiat are arriving in the system...do you think current price levels are sustainable? Merchants care about USDs received from your purchases and as third party services are selling your coins = eating what little fiat there is left, shouldnt the price drop in the long term?

dude, I get that you're new, but I think you just don't quite get what this means yet. You're well on your way, and no one can tell you this kind of stuff, you really need to figure it out for yourself.

good luck

No one can tell him this kind of stuff because I suspect at least half the people on here act like they know the answers, but don't. You can spot them easily by the "look at the previous threads," which to me means "look at the previous threads, but I totally never did because TO DA MOON!"

Hi Octa, I think no one can tell anyone about this kind of stuff.  I think you can make suggestions and observations, but this kind of stuff is so far beyond most people's reasoning that it is pretty much a waste of time trying to explain it.

 I didn't mean to imply that looking at previous threads would have any meaningful impact on the level of understanding of an individual (although it probably would) - what I meant to convey was the idea that -in today's world- a person's consciousness will tend to reject ideas that are not placed there by TV and gov't. I'm trying to say that this is the kind of stuff that you really need to figure out for yourself, because it is completely different from everything you've ever been taught or told.


anyways, the way that I try to tackle the problem is first I try to first understand or identify the limits of the technology, then try to understand the ramifications of the implementation of this technology in our current system. after that I might try to imagine the impact going forward... after the mass adoption and infrastructure has been built.