Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[aminorex]

I've no doubt that impressive growth is possible. But I'm slightly cautious of equating speculators' with regular punters' money. It could easily be an order of magnitude bigger.
But there's no arguing with people who use that kind of language.
(Perhaps you could clarify the terms - I assume M = market cap, n = number of adopters, k is your constant?)

Yes.

BTC speculation to date has been limited to the extreme margins of motivated, informed speculators with massive risk tolerance and a visionary posture.  That's a pretty rarefied atmosphere.  Historically, the major enabling factors for expansion have been expansions in the carrying capacity of the channel for fiat inflows.  I take it as a given that one or more major capital markets will offer a public liquidity vehicle for custodial BTC in the next 6 to 12 months, so I think it's pretty safe to say that 18 months would be an extreme upper bound for the next bubble onset, which is likely to be a doozy -- a word which historically referred to the Deusenberg motorcar.

I have said these things many times, as have many others, I am sure, but when someone expresses a perplexity, and these points seem helpful to provide an accurate form of clarity, I will supply a reminder.  Accurate conviction on points of minority knowledge is a wonderful thing.  Since I am fully charged for the time-being, I have every reason to propagate this boon where possible.  You can bin me with the uberbulls a la Risto.  I don't mind at all.

[kireinaha]

So it appears Peter Schiff has finally wrapped his mind around Bitcoin:

http://blog.europacmetals.com/2014/05/euro-pacific-precious-metals-now-accepts-bitcoin/

Even the most vocal haters are coming around and embracing bitcoin. Yup, this next rally is going to be epic.

[molecular]

So it appears Peter Schiff has finally wrapped his mind around Bitcoin:

http://blog.europacmetals.com/2014/05/euro-pacific-precious-metals-now-accepts-bitcoin/

wow. Didn't expect.

[ChrisML]

Seems we have flattened here at 490-495, kinda thought we might dip and make a nice flag. Dont really know what to think. Any thoughts on where were going from here? (besides the proverbial moon)

Just catching our breath after a big day. I'm surprised it didn't slip further.

This.

I thought we would settle down at +-$475 before going into a rally in a few days. It's hodling pretty nice up there.

Same though here. ~470 is something I really expected (and still could happen). Back to 450, without bouncing up, and I'd start worrying that it was a pump&dump after all.

I'm still kind of thinkin it was a pump and dump. But that doesnt mean we cant get one more leg up! A nice dip from 500 could have been a nice bull flag though and a nice place to get a leveraged long in!

A pump and dump would mean it would go rocket through $500 and end up at $460,-. It did not.

[ShameOnYou]

So it appears Peter Schiff has finally wrapped his mind around Bitcoin:

http://blog.europacmetals.com/2014/05/euro-pacific-precious-metals-now-accepts-bitcoin/

Even the most vocal haters are coming around and embracing bitcoin. Yup, this next rally is going to be epic.

So bottom is in? epic rally from here? Ive been telling everyone these have just been bear traps but that is only because i am a perma bull.

[aminorex]

So it appears Peter Schiff has finally wrapped his mind around Bitcoin:

http://blog.europacmetals.com/2014/05/euro-pacific-precious-metals-now-accepts-bitcoin/

wow. Didn't expect.

Dude got tired of mac & cheese.

[ShameOnYou]

Seems we have flattened here at 490-495, kinda thought we might dip and make a nice flag. Dont really know what to think. Any thoughts on where were going from here? (besides the proverbial moon)

Just catching our breath after a big day. I'm surprised it didn't slip further.

This.

I thought we would settle down at +-$475 before going into a rally in a few days. It's hodling pretty nice up there.

Same though here. ~470 is something I really expected (and still could happen). Back to 450, without bouncing up, and I'd start worrying that it was a pump&dump after all.

I'm still kind of thinkin it was a pump and dump. But that doesnt mean we cant get one more leg up! A nice dip from 500 could have been a nice bull flag though and a nice place to get a leveraged long in!

A pump and dump would mean it would go rocket through $500 and end up at $460,-. It did not.

Wait, but couldnt we have still another leg up to make, and then maybe comes the dump? It didnt rocket through 500 on the first leg either...

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[oda.krell]

Seems we have flattened here at 490-495, kinda thought we might dip and make a nice flag. Dont really know what to think. Any thoughts on where were going from here? (besides the proverbial moon)

Just catching our breath after a big day. I'm surprised it didn't slip further.

This.

I thought we would settle down at +-$475 before going into a rally in a few days. It's hodling pretty nice up there.

Same though here. ~470 is something I really expected (and still could happen). Back to 450, without bouncing up, and I'd start worrying that it was a pump&dump after all.

I'm still kind of thinkin it was a pump and dump. But that doesnt mean we cant get one more leg up! A nice dip from 500 could have been a nice bull flag though and a nice place to get a leveraged long in!

A pump and dump would mean it would go rocket through $500 and end up at $460,-. It did not.

This is getting a bit of a semantic discussion, no?

Volume has been, well, okay so far. Better than the week(s) before, worse than what you'd really want to see to be sure it's not going to go down again. There's evidence in my opinion that it's a more natural increase this time, not merely driven by a rubber band effect from the latest flash-crash-followed-by-mean-reversion-recovery, but I also want to say that considering where we are now, we have plenty of bearish sentiment to shake off, so being skeptical is not a bad idea.

[windjc]

Seems we have flattened here at 490-495, kinda thought we might dip and make a nice flag. Dont really know what to think. Any thoughts on where were going from here? (besides the proverbial moon)

Just catching our breath after a big day. I'm surprised it didn't slip further.

This.

I thought we would settle down at +-$475 before going into a rally in a few days. It's hodling pretty nice up there.

Same though here. ~470 is something I really expected (and still could happen). Back to 450, without bouncing up, and I'd start worrying that it was a pump&dump after all.

I'm still kind of thinkin it was a pump and dump. But that doesnt mean we cant get one more leg up! A nice dip from 500 could have been a nice bull flag though and a nice place to get a leveraged long in!

A pump and dump would mean it would go rocket through $500 and end up at $460,-. It did not.

This is getting a bit of a semantic discussion, no?

Volume has been, well, okay so far. Better than the week(s) before, worse than what you'd really want to see to be sure it's not going to go down again. There's evidence in my opinion that it's a more natural increase this time, not merely driven by a rubber band effect from the latest flash-crash-followed-by-mean-reversion-recovery, but I also want to say that considering where we are now, we have plenty of bearish sentiment to shake off, so being skeptical is not a bad idea.

The issue I have with this rally is it seems to be driven by players already in the game. Money on the sidelines blinked and jumped back in.  So, for a real run at 550, there needs to be a lot more money on the sidelines that hasn't joined us yet or some fresh money from somewhere.

Meanwhile, I would not take much to get us sliding back towards the 470s. A few more days of slow drip down would do it.

[zoinky]

Bitcoin still trending at these immature rates?  We're due for a paradigm shift

[Cassius]

I've no doubt that impressive growth is possible. But I'm slightly cautious of equating speculators' with regular punters' money. It could easily be an order of magnitude bigger.
But there's no arguing with people who use that kind of language.
(Perhaps you could clarify the terms - I assume M = market cap, n = number of adopters, k is your constant?)

Yes.

BTC speculation to date has been limited to the extreme margins of motivated, informed speculators with massive risk tolerance and a visionary posture.  That's a pretty rarefied atmosphere.  Historically, the major enabling factors for expansion have been expansions in the carrying capacity of the channel for fiat inflows.  I take it as a given that one or more major capital markets will offer a public liquidity vehicle for custodial BTC in the next 6 to 12 months, so I think it's pretty safe to say that 18 months would be an extreme upper bound for the next bubble onset, which is likely to be a doozy -- a word which historically referred to the Deusenberg motorcar.

I have said these things many times, as have many others, I am sure, but when someone expresses a perplexity, and these points seem helpful to provide an accurate form of clarity, I will supply a reminder.  Accurate conviction on points of minority knowledge is a wonderful thing.  Since I am fully charged for the time-being, I have every reason to propagate this boon where possible.  You can bin me with the uberbulls a la Risto.  I don't mind at all.

Woo, hold up there. Absolutely no disrespect intended, or even real disagreement (though I can't put you in the same category as Risto). Dangers of non-verbal communication and British irony, I suspect.
Appreciation on greater adoption is a given. My one misgiving in quantifying it is the amounts of money that are already in vs what might come in. But I suspect it's the difference between one order of magnitude's upside and the next.

 

[molecular]

So it appears Peter Schiff has finally wrapped his mind around Bitcoin:

http://blog.europacmetals.com/2014/05/euro-pacific-precious-metals-now-accepts-bitcoin/

Even the most vocal haters are coming around and embracing bitcoin. Yup, this next rally is going to be epic.

So bottom is in? epic rally from here? Ive been telling everyone these have just been bear traps but that is only because i am a perma bull.

bottom in? I think so.

epic rally from here? Not so sure, it can drag on for quite a while, maybe steadily climbing with setbacks, of course. That probably wouldn't be a bad thing, either.

I'm a perma-bull, too, so this view is biased. Who knows what'll happen... anything can.

[oda.krell]

The issue I have with this rally is it seems to be driven by players already in the game. Money on the sidelines blinked and jumped back in.  So, for a real run at 550, there needs to be a lot more money on the sidelines that hasn't joined us yet or some fresh money from somewhere.

Meanwhile, I would not take much to get us sliding back towards the 470s. A few more days of slow drip down would do it.

Possible. But there is 'slow trickle of new money' plus 'old money sitting on the side lines', and together it might not be, no, scratch that: it most certainly won't be enough to get us to a new ATH, but that doesn't mean it's too little to support 470, 500, or maybe more.

We will probably overshoot whatever level will turn out to be the lowest stable one without a major new fiat gate, and then correct back to that stable level. I do however believe that lowest stable level to increase over time, simply because of the cyclic nature of sentiment (people that sold last year and haven't bough back in yet will be more inclined to think "the correction is probably over by now")

[ShameOnYou]

Well all that money on the sidelines sure has shown a whole lot of patience these past few months.... wonder when it'll finally start getting back into BTC.

[oda.krell]

Well all that money on the sidelines sure has shown a whole lot of patience these past few months.... wonder when it'll finally start getting back into BTC.

Either as we make new lows (buying in out of greed), or as we (slowly) break through major resistances on the way back up.

[windjc]

The issue I have with this rally is it seems to be driven by players already in the game. Money on the sidelines blinked and jumped back in.  So, for a real run at 550, there needs to be a lot more money on the sidelines that hasn't joined us yet or some fresh money from somewhere.

Meanwhile, I would not take much to get us sliding back towards the 470s. A few more days of slow drip down would do it.

Possible. But there is 'slow trickle of new money' plus 'old money sitting on the side lines', and together it might not be, no, scratch that: it most certainly won't be enough to get us to a new ATH, but that doesn't mean it's too little to support 470, 500, or maybe more.

We will probably overshoot whatever level will turn out to be the lowest stable one without a major new fiat gate, and the correct back to that stable level. I do however that stable level to increase over time, simply because of the cyclic nature of sentiment (people that sold last year and haven't bough back in yet will be more inclined to think "the correction is probably over by now")

Well, I am more than happy to ride this train slowly upwards. But I really feel like before we can be in a real bull market, we need to see some paradigm shifts in the eco-system. Either regulated US exchanges need to open and actually be used, investment vehicles need to open for the public, companies like Circle need to have products that really are means for mass adoption - some or a few of these things need to happen for enough fresh money to enter to take us somewhere meaningful.

In this way it feels more like 2012 to me than anything, because I think the fastest these things will happen in a way that could have a major impact is 6-12 months away.

And until this happens, there are black clouds that hang over our head - potential China ban, more exchange insolvency, etc.

Until the next bubble (assuming it) arrives, we are going to be susceptible to flash crashes and bear market reversals.

[JorgeStolfi]

Just think how many children went hungry after your shopping spree

Whenever I wake up in the middle of the night for having had a bad dream with those hungry kids, I tell myself that perhaps the tax inspectors and the police actually were on their way at that time, in which case the children got to keep their daddy thanks to us, and I go back to sleep.   

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[freebit13]

So it appears Peter Schiff has finally wrapped his mind around Bitcoin:

http://blog.europacmetals.com/2014/05/euro-pacific-precious-metals-now-accepts-bitcoin/

wow. Didn't expect.

Schiff flip-flops all the time... he just goes with what's popular...