Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[N12]

I just bought some coins at $555, I think we're going up from here. If we break convincingly below 530 on Stamp I will take my losses.

Short term, there's a descending wedge in process, plus bullish divergences in MACD/RSI in various timeframes, and declining volume. I don't think there is much selling power left even if we take out the former low, but medium term is another story.

Yeah I noticed those divergences that's why I bought, and also because I think 530 will hold and being confident enough about it to put some money on it. But I'm curious as to why you think medium term we may be seeing lower lows? I tend to think we will most likely see $800 and perhaps test $1000 again before the end of this year. A new ATH and bubble perhaps in 2015, but not too soon.

I don't know yet about medium term for sure, I can't rule out <330. We had a big rejection of the daily 200SMA, but besides that, no evidence yet. It probbaly just means we are going sideways overall for now, similar to post 7.22 in 2012.

[TERA]

I just bought some coins at $555, I think we're going up from here. If we break convincingly below 530 on Stamp I will take my losses.

Short term, there's a descending wedge in process, plus bullish divergences in MACD/RSI in various timeframes, and declining volume. I don't think there is much selling power left even if we take out the former low, but medium term is another story.

Yeah I noticed those divergences that's why I bought, and also because I think 530 will hold and being confident enough about it to put some money on it. But I'm curious as to why you think medium term we may be seeing lower lows? I tend to think we will most likely see $800 and perhaps test $1000 again before the end of this year. A new ATH and bubble perhaps in 2015, but not too soon.

We are now firmly under the weekly ichimoku cloud and if you study the 1D, 3D, and 1W RSI over the past 2 years, you can observe a bearish trend going on. Also, this past rally should have gone higher than $680 and retraced much higher than $535, which broke the previous April peak of $548. The 3D looks like it's about to cross back down soon if we don't recover, and there's a 2 year trend in a weak position that looks like it might break.

It boggles my mind that the trend is like this with the sheer amount of new and large business that have adopted bitcoin lately.

[N12]

One thing's for sure, there is neither no real new money nor real new Bitcoins coming to this market as far as I see, in contrary both has probably been declining. Liquidity is going to shit.

Evidence (evidence that should have scared the train-mongering bull tards during the rally on no bids to 680):

[Miz4r]

I just bought some coins at $555, I think we're going up from here. If we break convincingly below 530 on Stamp I will take my losses.

Short term, there's a descending wedge in process, plus bullish divergences in MACD/RSI in various timeframes, and declining volume. I don't think there is much selling power left even if we take out the former low, but medium term is another story.

Yeah I noticed those divergences that's why I bought, and also because I think 530 will hold and being confident enough about it to put some money on it. But I'm curious as to why you think medium term we may be seeing lower lows? I tend to think we will most likely see $800 and perhaps test $1000 again before the end of this year. A new ATH and bubble perhaps in 2015, but not too soon.

We are now firmly under the weekly ichimoku cloud and if you study the 1D, 3D, and 1W RSI over the past 2 years, you can observe a bearish trend going on. Also, this past rally should have gone higher than $680 and retraced much higher than $535, which broke the previous peak of $548.

China only retraced 50% and did not break below the previous peak, western markets were perhaps more scared by the FBI coins sale and Ghash dominance. Anyway I can't see any bearish indication in this for the medium term.

[N12]

It boggles my mind that the trend is like this with the sheer amount of new and large business that have adopted bitcoin lately.

I don't think this matters. In contrary, they may be providing liquidity and liquidity is bad for drying up BTC supply and enticing new speculative funds. In 2012, we had lots of good stuff happening too.

[Miz4r]

One thing's for sure, there is neither no real new money nor real new Bitcoins coming to this market as far as I see, in contrary both has probably been declining. Liquidity is going to shit.

Evidence (evidence that should have scared the train-mongering bull tards during the rally on no bids to 680):

Isn't that more like evidence that Stamp is stagnating? Other exchanges like Bitfinex and Kraken seem to be growing for instance. And who knows how much is being traded outside of the exchanges nowadays.

[N12]

Yeah, it's operating under the assumption that Bitstamp's position in the market isn't shrinking (much). I do think it's still reflective of the state of affairs. Bitfinex has been ballooning on credit money, so I would discount that partly. Kraken I don't know, still seems small at http://bitcoinity.org/markets/list?currency=ALL&span=7d

Now outside of exchanges, it bears no speculating about that, but we do have one indicator: SecondMarket. And SecondMarket hasn't been buying shit for 1.5 months.

[TERA]

Don't try to analyze the exchange volume too much. The only bullish way to explain the latest volume levels is to theorize that there is been a huge leap in the amount of off-exchange investment and merchant activity going on.  Otherwise, these tiny volume levels on this latest rally and decline are extremely bearish in comparison the huge volume levels there were going on just months ago at the same price levels and even higher.

[Tzupy]

... Liquidity is going to shit.

Which made the markets more vulnerable to pump and dump schemes.

Blitz, would you mind sharing where did you get the Bitstamp bis sum / ask sum chart from?

On Bitstamp the 4h MACD suggest the correction is over and now a consolidation period should follow, but Huobi may drop a bit further.

[N12]

Blitz, would you mind sharing where did you get the Bitstamp bis sum / ask sum chart from?

http://coinsight.org/bitstamp

[dnaleor]

We need to break these 2 downtrend lines asap. After that, we can stabilise and break the third (slower) downtrend

[JorgeStolfi]

It boggles my mind that the trend is like this with the sheer amount of new and large business that have adopted bitcoin lately.

Most of those businesses did not adopt bitcoin at all.  They merely agreed to accept dollars from the sale of bitcoins that people already had, including cheap coins that had been dormant since 2013 or earlier.

Bitpay expansion does little to increase adoption; it chiefly makes it easier and more tempting for long-time investors to sell some of their coins on the open market.

[Tzupy]

Blitz, would you mind sharing where did you get the Bitstamp bis sum / ask sum chart from?

http://coinsight.org/bitstamp

Found it, thank you!

[Tzupy]

It boggles my mind that the trend is like this with the sheer amount of new and large business that have adopted bitcoin lately.

Most of those businesses did not adopt bitcoin at all.  They merely agreed to accept dollars from the sale of bitcoins that people already had, including cheap coins that had been dormant since 2013 or earlier.

Bitpay expansion does little to increase adoption; it chiefly makes it easier and more tempting for long-time investors to sell some of their coins on the open market.

Many people don't understand that there are 2 bitcoin economies: the original SR and like one, and the newer, legitimizing economy using Bitpay.
But why would an early adopter (who bought below 20$) buy back with fiat the bitcoin that he spends today, at a 550$ market price?
The smart thing to do, in order to buy back 1 BTC, would be to sell 4 BTC when a downtrend is obvious and then buy back 5 - 6 BTC (just an example) at a lower price.

[Searing]

It boggles my mind that the trend is like this with the sheer amount of new and large business that have adopted bitcoin lately.

Most of those businesses did not adopt bitcoin at all.  They merely agreed to accept dollars from the sale of bitcoins that people already had, including cheap coins that had been dormant since 2013 or earlier.

Bitpay expansion does little to increase adoption; it chiefly makes it easier and more tempting for long-time investors to sell some of their coins on the open market.

ouch!

[cbeast]

It boggles my mind that the trend is like this with the sheer amount of new and large business that have adopted bitcoin lately.

Most of those businesses did not adopt bitcoin at all.  They merely agreed to accept dollars from the sale of bitcoins that people already had, including cheap coins that had been dormant since 2013 or earlier.

Bitpay expansion does little to increase adoption; it chiefly makes it easier and more tempting for long-time investors to sell some of their coins on the open market.

ouch!

Please ignore the trolls. Claiming that Bitpay customers do not keep any of their bitcoins is a lie.

[JorgeStolfi]

Please ignore the trolls. Claiming that Bitpay customers do not keep any of their bitcoins is a lie.

Some of them do, but how many?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[podyx]

It boggles my mind that the trend is like this with the sheer amount of new and large business that have adopted bitcoin lately.

Most of those businesses did not adopt bitcoin at all.  They merely agreed to accept dollars from the sale of bitcoins that people already had, including cheap coins that had been dormant since 2013 or earlier.

Bitpay expansion does little to increase adoption; it chiefly makes it easier and more tempting for long-time investors to sell some of their coins on the open market.

You're not reading it at all, are you??

If they keep bitcoin or not doesn't matter at all at this stage
What matters is that you CAN PAY with bitcoin