Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[magicmexican]

my blind prediction based on absolutely nothing :

[jl2012]

Bears please try harder. SecondMarket will bid the FBI coins: http://newsbtc.com/2014/06/14/bitcoin-trust-secondmarket-btc-trading-desk-bid-u-s-marshals-bitcoin-auction/

[conspirosphere.tk]

Winner in the quest for value. Some very rich men, who have more than enough to live very well, have said that the work and the drive to have more becomes an obsession. But you don't have to enroll in that quest. You say there are other things more valuable, and I agree.

one might argue that winning is to enjoy life and die bankrupt and submerged in unrepayable debt. That is what the boomers did loading bizarre amounts of 'public' debt on the following generations democratically and without even asking in western countries at least -and that just playing ball with the debt-money scam.  In biblical times they were more honest selling their sons in slavery right away without horse's doses of keynesian b/s.

[eat_more_fruit]

I think the main fear is that this auction is to test the waters for the sale of the 144k or so coins from SR

There is a difference between the coins that were left unsecured in seized SR servers, and DPR's coins. The US cannot put the latter on sale unless a) DPR is convicted of a crime and has exhausted his appeals, b) he voluntarily surrenders his private keys.

[Globb0]

Those auction coins seem to be going into some big chunks   

[akujin]

Pump time! 

[maok]

Objectively, what are our chances of going lower?  I can throw in some fiat and buy some coins, but this is probably the last time I will be buying for 6 months or a year.  Ignoring the trolls, is there a legitimate chance of hitting $500?

This started with some well planned strategy in order to get the USMS coins cheaper, in the meantime some weak hands folded and made the price drop with another $40-$50 so at this moment I doubt there are many other skittish players out there.
The majority of us know that with all the innovation and business that started around bitcoin this year will make the price go up but there's always a risk of some weak hands to show up if the price drops to $500 which will make the price drop even further and stabilize around $300-$400 which will be a great time to be bully. But then again if there aren't any skittish ones left out there this might be the last time we'll see this price so its a tough call whether to be bully now or wait for the chickens to show their true color, if there are any left. Don't take anyone's advise, we're all clueless so just make up your own mind.

[faalhaas]

https://img.4plebs.org/boards/pol/image/1385/75/1385753810661.gif

[CoinHamster]

panic-buying 
fill your bags!
 

[Mythul]

LOL High res Doge astronaut !!!!

[JorgeStolfi]

Bears please try harder. SecondMarket will bid the FBI coins: http://newsbtc.com/2014/06/14/bitcoin-trust-secondmarket-btc-trading-desk-bid-u-s-marshals-bitcoin-auction/

Noblesse oblige, you leave me no choice ...  

If SecondMarket grabs those coins, they will then "sell" them to SMBIT investors (in the form of SMBIT shares) at market price, by definition.  Therefore they will probably bid at the auction somewhat lower than market price.  How much lower?  The lower they bid, the greater will be their profit (note that the SMBIT investors will not get any of that profit, it will go all to the SecondMarket owners), but also the greater the chance of losing the auction.  So it is hard to guess.

At their current growth rate, SMBIT will take many months to "sell" a substantial slice of those 30'000 BTC (say, 9'000 BTC) to new investors, in the form of SMBIT shares.  If SMBIT does already own enough coins to cover for their current investors (as they are supposed to), then buying thousands of BTC at the auction, with their own dollar reserves and near market price, will be a big gamble about the future price of BTC and the future attractiveness of SMBIT.  That is another reason to expect a bid significantly lower than market price.

SecondMarket is looking for partners for the auction, and maybe some of the partners will be short-term speculators who will then try to sell their share of the coins on the exchanges.  If the auction closes 30% below market, they may not mind selling with 15% slippage.

Finally, we do not know whether the syndicate will gather enough resources to bid for all 30'000 coins; so that SM plan does not remove the fear.

(That said, I must also say that I don't see that auction as responsible for the current drop.  I imagine that most traders knew it would happen, so they have it "priced in" already; and most traders should not see it as a big deal.)

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[keithers]

Despite the downswing that we've being having, btc had held up significantly better than the rest of the coins. LTC has been a little slow lately. Even on the price rallies, they seem to be btc only...

[Gingermod]

Despite the downswing that we've being having, btc had held up significantly better than the rest of the coins. LTC has been a little slow lately. Even on the price rallies, they seem to be btc only...

Are you implying that alt coins even have a chance of competing with Bitcoin?

[podyx]

Despite the downswing that we've being having, btc had held up significantly better than the rest of the coins. LTC has been a little slow lately. Even on the price rallies, they seem to be btc only...

Are you implying that alt coins even have a chance of competing with Bitcoin?

Unless nxt rallies to $1billion marketcap then crashes to $400-500million and holds it steady there then I doubt there is gonna be a chance for altcoins to compete

This is probably very improbable though

[ShroomsKit]

Objectively, what are our chances of going lower?  I can throw in some fiat and buy some coins, but this is probably the last time I will be buying for 6 months or a year.  Ignoring the trolls, is there a legitimate chance of hitting $500?

DO NOT take any advice from anybody here! Don't ever ask other people here what to do with your money! I know you see all these lines and charts and mainly bears who act like they know it all but i can guarantee you that not a single person here knows where Bitcoin will go. Every bear here will tell you we 100% sure will see 500 again. That's because they're sad little creatures who do nothing but lie and manipulate because they want the price to go down.
The bulls obviously want the price to go up but will be a bit more modest and say we likely won't see 500 again. Either way any info you'll get is coloured and worthless.
The fact that you want to invest in Bitcoin means you believe it will be worth more in the future. If you do then you should buy. 500 or 560 is meaningless in the long run if this thing takes off. If you don't think it will take off then don't. Waiting is kinda pointless because again nobody knows what it will do.

[Davyd05]

back from the cottage with no internet access, and someone goes and buys a big lot to give me a welcome home spike.

I see Jorge's methodology hasn't changed. This time it seems as if he speculates more about the motives of bitcoin trusts and exchanges, more so than we speculate on the price.

IMO in relation to the USMS Auction, we see a dip for those wish to try and front run what they sheepishly believe will happen, some sort of super under priced sale of btc in the auction and then dumping.

[adamstgBit]

Objectively, what are our chances of going lower?  I can throw in some fiat and buy some coins, but this is probably the last time I will be buying for 6 months or a year.  Ignoring the trolls, is there a legitimate chance of hitting $500?

I recommend dollar cost average buy in over 2 weeks

I expect price to rise once FBI coins are gone, but its hard to say what price will do till then.

Feels like we've sufficiently corrected, i wouldn't expect lower lows, but i dont expect it to recover or go much higher until its said and done.
so I recommend dollar cost average buy in over 2 weeks.

chances of hitting 500$ are good, but definitely not gr8, place bids there, and hope they fill within the 2 weeks, meanwhile look to support current price with small bids which you replace when filled, there is no rush, not for 2 weeks imo.

thats how i'm playing it, I might even sell if market gets heated up before the 2 weeks are up, with intentions to buy back cheaper of course  

[phosphorush]

how can that amount fo coins make such a difference on the price? -_^

[bitcoinsrus]

how can that amount fo coins make such a difference on the price? -_^

The majority of coins are not on the market. If you look at the exchanges volume per day, its not that much. A 30k sell or something, could swing prices. But obviously its unlikely a dump of this magnitude would occur (at the same time).