Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[1715600895]

1715600895

[1715600895]

1715600895

[1715600895]

1715600895

[1715600895]

1715600895

[roslinpl]

Explanation

Looking good =]

We can say ... it could be $400... :] but it is >$580 and it is looking good

I still believe that we will see >$600 till Monday.



Regards.

[Richy_T]

Most of these things listed above are NOT pyramid schemes, unless they are causing value to float to the top without any reciprocating value being transferred below.  The only way that value gets transferred lower down the pyramid is to find more suckers below.  None of these listed items are pyramid schemes, unless they are designed as such.  Bitcoin is also NOT a pyramid scheme b/c there are tangible assets, including an infrastructure and a network and continued investments in side businesses.... NO need to explain further at the moment b/c these pyramid scheme/ponzi arguments are totally attempting to simplify bitcoin into something that it is NOT and playing upon ignorance.

What you are writing is correct but you are arguing in a sophistry manner, bitcoin is no pyramid scheme, regarding the typical fraudulent definitions. It's a semantic shift by mmitech, talking of pyramid scheme but meaning a pyramidical wealth distribution. Reading you, I get the impression that you are not silly (even as I would not agree with a lot of your quoted text) and you understood the regarding context. That the wealth of bitcoin is distributed as a pyramid - I think this is undoubtably. But as I said earlier, that is capitalism - not only bitcoin.

Wealth of Bitcoin is more likely to be a Boltzmann type distribution (in my opinion)

[empowering]

Did anyone read this the other day?   thought it was an interesting read...

Nasdaq’s + head of ETF business - LaValle "Bitcoin ETF A Turning Point"


http://www.etf.com/sections/features/22835-nasdaqs-lavalle-bitcoin-etf-a-turning-point.html

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[TalkingBit]

Got this feeling as if someone is trying to corner the market. 7200BTC to 620 on stamp and the buy ledger has this almost perfect zigzag patter to average down. Need to breakout of this BS either way will do

[Schickeria]

Most of these things listed above are NOT pyramid schemes, unless they are causing value to float to the top without any reciprocating value being transferred below.  The only way that value gets transferred lower down the pyramid is to find more suckers below.  None of these listed items are pyramid schemes, unless they are designed as such.  Bitcoin is also NOT a pyramid scheme b/c there are tangible assets, including an infrastructure and a network and continued investments in side businesses.... NO need to explain further at the moment b/c these pyramid scheme/ponzi arguments are totally attempting to simplify bitcoin into something that it is NOT and playing upon ignorance.

What you are writing is correct but you are arguing in a sophistry manner, bitcoin is no pyramid scheme, regarding the typical fraudulent definitions. It's a semantic shift by mmitech, talking of pyramid scheme but meaning a pyramidical wealth distribution. Reading you, I get the impression that you are not silly (even as I would not agree with a lot of your quoted text) and you understood the regarding context. That the wealth of bitcoin is distributed as a pyramid - I think this is undoubtably. But as I said earlier, that is capitalism - not only bitcoin.

Wealth of Bitcoin is more likely to be a Boltzmann type distribution (in my opinion)

Agreed, as a pyramid is a very rough description for any wealth distribution.

[iram3130]

Today is a good day for some wall observing... walls, walls everywhere...

Indeed. It is a sign of a good weekend. Mark my words that this weekend wont be flat and boring.

This weekend I am 99.9% sure we will end up @$>600.

Do you remember how many times you went wrong, better don't predict.

Yes I admit that I remember. Even when I haven't got too good memory for my mistakes
That's why I told that this time I am 99.9% sure I left 0.1% chance for another mistake =]

But just look at the wall and tell me that you don't feel the same =]

I told you no sign of exciting weekend, same boring weekend like mostly time.
Nothing unusual happening, just no movement at all.

[roslinpl]

Today is a good day for some wall observing... walls, walls everywhere...

Indeed. It is a sign of a good weekend. Mark my words that this weekend wont be flat and boring.

This weekend I am 99.9% sure we will end up @$>600.

Do you remember how many times you went wrong, better don't predict.

Yes I admit that I remember. Even when I haven't got too good memory for my mistakes
That's why I told that this time I am 99.9% sure I left 0.1% chance for another mistake =]

But just look at the wall and tell me that you don't feel the same =]

I told you no sign of exciting weekend, same boring weekend like mostly time.
Nothing unusual happening, just no movement at all.

Yeah well ... at least we will be able to sleep peacefully instead of long long nights during the rally

:]   I am looking at some polish exchange (bitmarket.pl).. The wall looks promising and I think we will gain a little ++ today  very soon. Maybe some $5 ... We will see.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[paul2000]

I think Bitcoin needs a rest, like from march-june 2012 (5$),
after that exhausting months of 2013.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JorgeStolfi]

[ ... ]  That the wealth of bitcoin is distributed as a pyramid

Wealth of Bitcoin is more likely to be a Boltzmann type distribution (in my opinion)

If I understood correctly, Risto assumes some mathematical distribution model in this thread, and tries to adjust its parameters.  I don't know which model, though.

[BowieMan]

So far the weekend is holding pretty strong. We haven't seen a big dump yet. It remains to be seen if we can carry this through to the beginning of next week. I'd be all in for a sunday night mini train, to get the party started, if you ask me.

[Patel]

We still got 2 months of this if you ask me..

[ShroomsKit]

Next week should be interesting
Around the 14th-21th August we will be at a breakout point. Great opportunity to make a profitable trade by buying or selling if we breakout or break down

I've read we're at a breakout point about 20 times in the last 2 months.
Don't you people ever get tired of claiming this and being wrong.
Really, your charts don't work. Believe me. You can't predict what will happen 10 days from now.

[ShroomsKit]

I hope it goes to 470 to give a gleaning point.

As much as I'd hate to see Bitcoin go to the $400s again, I also think that this would we a much needed fresh start, to be honest... Although I'd much rather see a nice breakout from where we are now, to up north!

Maybe we are stuck in this upper $500s to lower $600s for a reason  - and that is that there is just NOT enough people willing to sell into the lower $500s anymore... and in that regard, it just does NOT seem too likely that BTC prices are going into the lower $500s anymore absent some pretty big time negative news.

I mean, I do NOT even know where Risto is getting this $470 from .. or even imaginging that $470 is possible... Maybe he is just saying $470 to troll us - b/c he really does NOT believe $470 is in the realm of real probabilities?

Look at my pic. If we fail to breakout next week a fall into the 460-470 is possible. Not right away (it will bounce here and there at various support points), but in a few weeks time probably will.
If we fail to breakout next week that is.


Fundamentals: recent news were good (Dell, etc), but I'm afraid the Bitlicense might have scared a lot of people.
Also, the volume during the june rebound was generally low and it was all kinda weak.
Next week we'll see.

Your pic is a chart with lines drawn on it. That doesn't work. It's as accurate as flipping a coin.
You probably had a few 1000 examples already that showed you it's useless and a waste of time. How many 1000's more do you need to understand this?

[dropt]

I've read we're at a breakout point about 20 times in the last 2 months.
Don't you people ever get tired of claming this and being wrong.
Really, your charts don't work. Believe me. You can't predict what will happen 10 days from now.

Tell me about it.  The only reason some of the charts are even perceived to work is because everyone is drawing the same lines coming to the same conclusions.  Oh, the price is touching this upper line I drew, that's the top, better sell.  So everyone with that line says the same, sell.  Oh it's now touching this lower line I drew, it's the bottom better buy because my line told me to. Rinse. Repeat.

HEY GUYS, SEE HOW THE PRICE IS IN THIS PENNANT?  

It's like people are just putting these arbitrary bounds on their models because lines and it ends up being a self fulfilling prophecy to some end.

But, I digress.  I'd rather have discussion about near arbitrary lines drawn on price charts than idiots trolls like Stolfi and falllling cluttering this place up with their nonsense drivel.

[JorgeStolfi]

Still not happy with the 'built up buying pressure from earlier sell-offs plus confidence from phase of relative stability plus naked eye evidence of buying support for mid-400 prices' explanation, huh?

You mean an 'it is raining because drops of water are falling from the sky' kind of explanation?

Almost, prof. More like 'market price being a function of human cognitive process output, so it's futile to look for more "objective" causes'.

Hm, ok, so why can't human cognitive process outputs be worth 10$ apiece tomorrow?  

Seriously, you are right in that the current price is not supported by its utility but only by the traders' feelings about what the price will do in the near future.  (Whether it succeeds or fails, bitcoin will be a valuable experiment for financial studies, as an instrument whose market price evolved for years on pure speculation, with no "contamination" by fundamentals.)

Yet, most of the major price moves since last year have clear external causes, such as the seizure of Silk Road, the PBoC decrees and their workarounds, the "bug in bitcoin" announcement, etc..

Granted, most of these events were unpredictable, and acted through changing peoples' outlooks, so that the magnitude of the change would have been impossible to estimate.  But one can imagine dozens of events like those that could happen an d bring the price down.  Just as some predict a rally if the SEC approves COIN.

As for the May/20--Jun/05 rally, in particular: for most of the time since then, the price has either wandered about or drifted down.  The rise (and the support after it) came in a few sudden, concentrated buying spurts. So that rally cannot be explained as a general diffuse change of traders' outlook; it seems more likely that there was a series of discrete external events causing each spurt,

Thus, I would rather believe that is was a few big traders getting some inside information, one at a time. But I can't figure out what the information could be, nor whether it was in China or in the "West".

[Peter R]

The only reason some of the charts are even perceived to work is because everyone is drawing the same lines coming to the same conclusions.

Yes, it's like reading entrails in ancient times.  We look back at that practice as ridiculous, but the best haruspices (entrail readers) could actually predict the future to a certain degree.  The reason is that if the people thought a certain future was destined to unfold, in small ways they would each work to make it happen. 

Our shared mythology is a powerful force.