MtGox withdrawal delays [Gathering]

[dudel42]

1000 EUR withdrawal. Ordered on 2013-09-27, came through 2013-11-11 (noticed it today). 45 days to Sweden.

thanks for the data point.... gives me a rough estimate for when my 2013-10-10 withdrawal will probably be processed.

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[morningtime]

Money stuck in exchanges keeps the Bitcoin price artificially high. If Mt.Gox ever processes all withdrawals, more people will convert to fiat to get their money out. So prepare for a price drop when they do.

[Alpaca Bob]

Money stuck in exchanges keeps the Bitcoin price artificially high. If Mt.Gox ever processes all withdrawals, more people will convert to fiat to get their money out. So prepare for a price drop when they do.

It might also increase trust in bitcoin and the ecosystem, which could lead to another run-up.

[Nagle]

Money stuck in exchanges keeps the Bitcoin price artificially high. If Mt.Gox ever processes all withdrawals, more people will convert to fiat to get their money out. So prepare for a price drop when they do.

It might also increase trust in bitcoin and the ecosystem, which could lead to another run-up.

Mt. Gox is almost irrelevant to Bitcoin at this point. Since they're not paying out USD (at all) or EUR (much), and only an idiot would deposit there, most of the "volume" there has to be the same money sloshing back and forth within Mt. Gox.

[sturle]

Money stuck in exchanges keeps the Bitcoin price artificially high. If Mt.Gox ever processes all withdrawals, more people will convert to fiat to get their money out. So prepare for a price drop when they do.

It might also increase trust in bitcoin and the ecosystem, which could lead to another run-up.

Mt. Gox is almost irrelevant to Bitcoin at this point. Since they're not paying out USD (at all) or EUR (much), and only an idiot would deposit there, most of the "volume" there has to be the same money sloshing back and forth within Mt. Gox.

More than one million USD worth of other currencies (mainly JPY) are leaving MtGox every day, and I assume some people are depositing as well.  Otherwise the price would go down, not up.  MtGox still has the deepest order book.  There are more than 24 million USD worth of bids at MtGox.  There were only 12 million USD in bids a few weeks ago.

Most of the volume on most exchanges are the same money trying to buy low and sell high.  Probably more so on MtGox due to their superior API which makes them very attractive for bots, but that doesn't make the price invalid.  Bots are good.  Bots provide liquidity.

Price setting has mostly happened on BTC China the last week or more, with MtGox following closely.  The other exchanges lags a bit behind, usually.

[morningtime]

Money stuck in exchanges keeps the Bitcoin price artificially high. If Mt.Gox ever processes all withdrawals, more people will convert to fiat to get their money out. So prepare for a price drop when they do.

It might also increase trust in bitcoin and the ecosystem, which could lead to another run-up.

Hi, how exactly does money stuck in an exchange increase trust in Bitcoin? It lowers trust, because people wanting to cash out are frustrated thinking "what good is Bitcoin if you can't get your money out to pay rent".

The effect is a dam reservoir of Bitcoin waiting to be cashed out. If you can only put money into BTC, but not out, then the price goes up. Which is what we see happening. But once the "flood gates" open again, BTC price will come crashing down as people dying to cash out will cash out.

[morningtime]

There are more than 24 million USD worth of bids at MtGox.  There were only 12 million USD in bids a few weeks ago.

Doesn't that also mean there's twice as many sellers as last week? I.e. people wanting to cash out.

More than one million USD worth of other currencies (mainly JPY) are leaving MtGox every day, and I assume some people are depositing as well.

There are many more deposits coming in than withdrawals out. A lot of people want to cash out at $400 or $500, but they can't, at least not on Mt.Gox, since it would take 8 weeks of uncertainty. So they cancel withdrawals and move BTC elsewhere. Bitstamp, Coindesk etc. Soon there's going to be an exodus to exchanges, wherever people can convert to USD/EUR.

[Alpaca Bob]

Money stuck in exchanges keeps the Bitcoin price artificially high. If Mt.Gox ever processes all withdrawals, more people will convert to fiat to get their money out. So prepare for a price drop when they do.

It might also increase trust in bitcoin and the ecosystem, which could lead to another run-up.

Hi, how exactly does money stuck in an exchange increase trust in Bitcoin? It lowers trust, because people wanting to cash out are frustrated thinking "what good is Bitcoin if you can't get your money out to pay rent".

The effect is a dam reservoir of Bitcoin waiting to be cashed out. If you can only put money into BTC, but not out, then the price goes up. Which is what we see happening. But once the "flood gates" open again, BTC price will come crashing down as people dying to cash out will cash out.

You're assuming everyone stuck in Gox is dying to get out?

This might be true, of course, but once liquidity returns, wouldn't trust return as well?

[Nagle]

once if liquidity returns, wouldn't trust return as well?

No.

[jl2012]

Money stuck in exchanges keeps the Bitcoin price artificially high. If Mt.Gox ever processes all withdrawals, more people will convert to fiat to get their money out. So prepare for a price drop when they do.

Right, I heard this since June when the price was only 1/5 of the present 

[||bit]

Money stuck in exchanges keeps the Bitcoin price artificially high. If Mt.Gox ever processes all withdrawals, more people will convert to fiat to get their money out. So prepare for a price drop when they do.

It might also increase trust in bitcoin and the ecosystem, which could lead to another run-up.

Mt. Gox is almost irrelevant to Bitcoin at this point. Since they're not paying out USD (at all) or EUR (much), and only an idiot would deposit there, most of the "volume" there has to be the same money sloshing back and forth within Mt. Gox.

Your illustration made me laugh. It's sad, but true. Last night I was chatting with a friend about this. And it dawned on me that it's like people are all excited about trading, but they can't get out. It's just like a bunch of rats racing around in circles inside an empty cage or something. It was so ridiculous, it made me laugh then too.

[solex]

Money stuck in exchanges keeps the Bitcoin price artificially high. If Mt.Gox ever processes all withdrawals, more people will convert to fiat to get their money out. So prepare for a price drop when they do.

It might also increase trust in bitcoin and the ecosystem, which could lead to another run-up.

Mt. Gox is almost irrelevant to Bitcoin at this point. Since they're not paying out USD (at all) or EUR (much), and only an idiot would deposit there, most of the "volume" there has to be the same money sloshing back and forth within Mt. Gox.

Your illustration made me laugh. It's sad, but true. Last night I was chatting with a friend about this. And it dawned on me that it's like people are all excited about trading, but they can't get out. It's just like a bunch of rats racing around in circles inside an empty cage or something. It was so ridiculous, it made me laugh then too.

An empty cage which keeps getting smaller and smaller, as the btc leaks out and the price ratchets up...

[smoothie]

Money stuck in exchanges keeps the Bitcoin price artificially high. If Mt.Gox ever processes all withdrawals, more people will convert to fiat to get their money out. So prepare for a price drop when they do.

It might also increase trust in bitcoin and the ecosystem, which could lead to another run-up.

Mt. Gox is almost irrelevant to Bitcoin at this point. Since they're not paying out USD (at all) or EUR (much), and only an idiot would deposit there, most of the "volume" there has to be the same money sloshing back and forth within Mt. Gox.

Your illustration made me laugh. It's sad, but true. Last night I was chatting with a friend about this. And it dawned on me that it's like people are all excited about trading, but they can't get out. It's just like a bunch of rats racing around in circles inside an empty cage or something. It was so ridiculous, it made me laugh then too.

+1

If you can't get fiat out of gox it is essentially like using a sample forex account where you play with funny money.

May as well be monopoly money.

[Rampion]

Money stuck in exchanges keeps the Bitcoin price artificially high. If Mt.Gox ever processes all withdrawals, more people will convert to fiat to get their money out. So prepare for a price drop when they do.

It might also increase trust in bitcoin and the ecosystem, which could lead to another run-up.

Mt. Gox is almost irrelevant to Bitcoin at this point. Since they're not paying out USD (at all) or EUR (much), and only an idiot would deposit there, most of the "volume" there has to be the same money sloshing back and forth within Mt. Gox.

Your illustration made me laugh. It's sad, but true. Last night I was chatting with a friend about this. And it dawned on me that it's like people are all excited about trading, but they can't get out. It's just like a bunch of rats racing around in circles inside an empty cage or something. It was so ridiculous, it made me laugh then too.

+1

If you can't get fiat out of gox it is essentially like using a sample forex account where you play with funny money.

May as well be monopoly money.

As long as you can withdraw BTC, there's still some real money going out. Let's see how long it last tough.

[ardana123]

This might be true, of course, but once liquidity returns, wouldn't trust return as well?

Probably, because in doing so Gox would have proven they went through hell and back to solve their banking problems. To me that would be worth more than an exchange like Bitstamp which has not had many problems and could very well be next in line to have their accounts shuttered.

[Alpaca Bob]

This might be true, of course, but once liquidity returns, wouldn't trust return as well?

Probably, because in doing so Gox would have proven they went through hell and back to solve their banking problems. To me that would be worth more than an exchange like Bitstamp which has not had many problems and could very well be next in line to have their accounts shuttered.

Agreed.

[sturle]

There are more than 24 million USD worth of bids at MtGox.  There were only 12 million USD in bids a few weeks ago.

Doesn't that also mean there's twice as many sellers as last week? I.e. people wanting to cash out.

No, the number of bids only indicate that people want to buy BTC, and the amount of fiat on MtGox.

A few other observations:

• Spread between MtGox and Bitstamp/BTC-E has been steadily decreasing.
• MtGox is slowly gaining market share over Bitstamp and BTC-E.
• The spread between Bitstamp (Europe/international) and CampBX (USSA) is much higher than the spread between MtGox and Bitstamp
• USD's share of Bitcoin trades is decreasing at an accelerating rate.  About 55% now.  (In reality it is even lower, skewed by Bitstamp etc.)

It looks like people in the USSA are desperate to get out while the rest of the world are buying and trading.  This pushes the price down at exchanges trading in USD (as in USD fiat, not just using USD as a one-fiat-currency-for-all like Bitstamp) while the price increases at the international exchanges.  For the rest of the world getting fiat out of MtGox is simpler, and it isn't very much of an issue anyway because people in the rest of the world are there to buy, not sell.  Prices on local international exchanges are even higher.

Before the USD problems started about 30% of MtGox's customers were USSAnians.  This share is probably much lower now, and for this reason the USD problems have even lower impact on MtGox than it used to.

[gnix72]

This might be true, of course, but once liquidity returns, wouldn't trust return as well?

Probably, because in doing so Gox would have proven they went through hell and back to solve their banking problems. To me that would be worth more than an exchange like Bitstamp which has not had many problems and could very well be next in line to have their accounts shuttered.

But in so doing, has had zero communication with us.  It is incumbent upon businesses to communicate with their desired customers what the issues are and how they are addressing them.  Mt. Gox has never been open about communication, they instead hide behind closed doors and wait until good news before they say anything at all.  Their last post on facebook was Aug 2, their last main press release -- not discounting some silly ones that occurred in between, the last REAL news from this massive organization is Aug 2?

If any major company operated this way they would already be out of business, the only reason Mt. Gox hasn't...is that fundamentally, few of you are businesspeople and/or, they have a customer base in Japan that is happy with their communication and performance.

Trust is everything in business, and once lost nearly impossible to regain.  The only way I will ever do business with Gox again is if I have absolutely no other alternative.  I do not and can not trust people who are unwilling to communicate with me.

Obviously the Yen works great there, so unless you have a Japanese bank account, my advice would be run to the hills, take the one time hit, sell it on coinbase and get on with your life.

[gnix72]

• The spread between Bitstamp (Europe/international) and CampBX (USSA) is much higher than the spread between MtGox and Bitstamp

This is well understood to be because Dwolla pulled the rug out from underneath them.  Once ACH comes online in a few days, CampBX will be back in line with the "non-Gox" USD exchanges...that is, exchanges that you can actually pull USD out of.

And I trade on Bitstamp not because I'm planning to pull my USD out daily or something, but that I know at SOME POINT I will want to pull some USD out, and I would really like to have that option.

Plus, in the event Mt. Gox ever does open up USD transfers, although why bother at this point -- but if they did, then arbitrage would immediately send the Gox price down and raise up all other USD liquid exchanges to level the prices out.

[deadweasel]

This might be true, of course, but once liquidity returns, wouldn't trust return as well?

Probably, because in doing so Gox would have proven they went through hell and back to solve their banking problems. To me that would be worth more than an exchange like Bitstamp which has not had many problems and could very well be next in line to have their accounts shuttered.

But in so doing, has had zero communication with us.  It is incumbent upon businesses to communicate with their desired customers what the issues are and how they are addressing them.  Mt. Gox has never been open about communication, they instead hide behind closed doors and wait until good news before they say anything at all.  Their last post on facebook was Aug 2, their last main press release -- not discounting some silly ones that occurred in between, the last REAL news from this massive organization is Aug 2?

If any major company operated this way they would already be out of business, the only reason Mt. Gox hasn't...is that fundamentally, few of you are businesspeople and/or, they have a customer base in Japan that is happy with their communication and performance.

Trust is everything in business, and once lost nearly impossible to regain.  The only way I will ever do business with Gox again is if I have absolutely no other alternative.  I do not and can not trust people who are unwilling to communicate with me.

Obviously the Yen works great there, so unless you have a Japanese bank account, my advice would be run to the hills, take the one time hit, sell it on coinbase and get on with your life.

^
Good Advice.

Gox is likely running a fractional reserve system.  It breaks down often and will continue to do so allowing your funds to be diverted for their profit.