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netrin
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August 05, 2011, 01:56:59 AM
 #101



Dec '10 vs Aug '11 || 100x more volume || 40x more value || 5x more mania || 2x more time

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August 05, 2011, 08:55:23 AM
 #102

i can read your histogramm, but i cant see the sense behind...
its not possible to prdict the most possible way of tha value of BTC in the future, isn't it? what is it for?

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August 05, 2011, 01:25:18 PM
 #103

Is it correct to interpret your V-shaped histogram to say we can really go either way including nowhere? Based on eye-balling the Nov, Feb, and June peaks, I see more volatility but more up during the week, generally down over the month, and a big bubble rally before the end of the year.

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August 05, 2011, 05:48:19 PM
 #104




Your first correlation:

Your second correlation:

If you scale on price, why not time? Here's my eye-balled (time scaled) correlation:

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August 05, 2011, 06:56:03 PM
 #105

Quote
in order to scale on time you have to throw away data so that you end up with the same amount of points in both samples.
I see. But iff it creates more accurate predictions, then its a small price to pay, no? By for example collecting hourly prices and selecting likely matches. I observe three peaks 2010-11-06, 2011-02-11, and 2011-07-08, with very different run ups and blow offs. Comparing peak to peak is most obvious, except the base/fence cases. And that's the real trick: aligning and prediction the next rally. Everything about the last peak was bigger than the previous two and it is for that reason I expect the next rally to manifest later.

Above, I've used your dates (#3, #4) to match the plateau following the 2011-02-11 (graph #2). The last graph #5 is my attempt to match the last $32 peak (2011-07-08) and plateau with the previous two series, irrespective of time scale.

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August 05, 2011, 07:59:55 PM
 #106

Math keeps the eye balls honest. But I still feel there are fundamental reasons to be flexible with time. A certain downward pressure is constant (coin generation) while upward pressure has been historically exponential (new blood). So volume (awareness) alone keeps prices up longer, rallies more manic, etc. I'm just fixing the previous peak at $32 and stretching the graph until in matches the patterns after each of the previous two peaks. As for math, perhaps one could match relative distances between sub peaks and valleys or find the best matching deviation from a moving average.

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August 06, 2011, 02:13:59 PM
 #107

Go for it then. Test it on a variety of data samples and let us know what you turn up.
I would love to but I'm not yet prepared for math models. I'd have to see if the post-peak corresponds to the second and if their average corresponds to the past two months. But my etch-a-sketch model still seems pretty accurate:



Seriously, I think we're in the December (and March) bounces . And I double the time scale:



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August 06, 2011, 04:37:49 PM
 #108

From what I am seeing, those that missed out on the low single digits will get their chance to get in at those levels again. I see price dropping to possibly late-April levels in a few days except with bigger spreads. Smart traders are going to make bank on these moves.

So, to the $2 range then, eh?
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August 06, 2011, 05:08:57 PM
 #109

To start with, I believe your model for BTC price (and difficulty) is uncanny.  The error margin you've achieved boggles my mind.

But my magical ass once again disagrees.  I agree the price/difficulty negative feedback loop, if started, will cause a a more drastic decrease in price.  What I don't believe is it will be triggered as early as next week.  There is about a 2 week lag time in price affecting difficulty according to my butt.  I strongly believe a 1 week timeframe is way too short for a death spiral.  Heck, one week is too short to even DETECT a possible difficulty decrease, never mind project it.

Then again, I only have data points on difficulty increases.  Difficulty decreases, were such a thing to happen, is not something I have enough data on.  You could be right, but once again my butt feels otherwise.

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August 06, 2011, 06:19:36 PM
 #110

I might share my thoughts here as well. Smiley

I think it is way more likely price will bounce higher temporarily from current sub $8. It will stay in a trading range of 7.50 to 9.00, with a possible rally as high as 11.00 in the conditions are right. This would be the ultimate push from a hardcore fans with extra cash. You need to understand that we had 350k volume in the a span of the week and most of this money is still sitting on exchanges. If bulls would somehow be able to start a small rally it could get legs for a short time.

Other than that price dropped 15+% today and 40% since 5 days ago. There was more than enough carnage % wise but this wasn't really met with high enough volumes. There isn't really any need for the market to continue to drop any further today or tomorrow. It still could happen but it is more likely that price would stabilize in 7.50 to 9.00 range. Daytraders would go to work and scalp this thing for a while. Price could somehow magically hover above $7.50 and wait for a new re-target in 7-10 days. By that time we will get a much clearer picture of what miners are thinking about the new price range.

Where to next ?

Lower it will go, easier it will be to find the demand. Then the accumulation process begins. We will have to wait that all the weak hands exit and fresh money goes to work. It might be as low as $5.00 but exact price isn't so important at this stage. Accumulation might take a long while, because there is/will be so many disappointed miners/investors wanting to go out.  Last but very important factor will be Satoshi's stack of at least 1.500,000 coins. How many does he need to sell and what are  his plans for the remaining part of the stack.
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August 06, 2011, 06:51:41 PM
 #111

We have a consensus then?  I'm already calling $5.80 as a support level, where we go from there IMO depends on the difficulty increase delta.  If by this time next week we're seeing ~4 BTC/hour and less than 4 gigahash on deepbit I'm pronouncing the Bitocalypse beginning.

And just to second guess my butt, I put in a sell order at $9.49.  I was going to wait for the Tuesday effect to eject my remaining 2 coins, but hey.  If you're right and I'm wrong that much the better.

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August 06, 2011, 07:07:25 PM
 #112

Chodpaba, what are you calling "current levels" (bottom $/BTC .. back .. days/weeks to current levels and beyond)? I've uncorked the champagne and started clapping myself on the back for selling a nice fraction at $12 and buying at $8 with pennies reserved for a clean up at maybe $6. But do you think it'll go up before going down again? I'm hoping to come up for the inverted head, a small right shoulder, and then a rally. Am I dreaming?

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August 06, 2011, 07:09:50 PM
 #113

I have been and will continue playing with less than pocket change.  When my wife suggested I take some of my high risk gambling funds out of my brokerage to invest in bitcoin I looked at her like she had 6 heads.  No derivatives?  No margin trading?  No market depth?  Little to no liquidity for more than a few thousand $?  No accountability or transparency for exchanges?  Hard to deposit and withdraw funds?  80% of existing coins not part of the float?  Exchange failure leading to 100% loss a clear and recently demonstrated possibility?

I may be nuts but I'm not completely insane.

Whatever happens this has been and will continue to be purely entertainment and practice for me.  Being right or wrong on the short term direction of bitcoin boils down to less than I will spend on beer tonight.

Long term is a big question mark.

The readership of this forum is small enough that even if I did have a material interest in bitcoin I wouldn't be afraid to reveal my cards.
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August 07, 2011, 01:22:02 AM
 #114

Do you mind posting the time series this corresponds to. I'm having trouble believing we've experienced this before. Hicup. Excuse my writing chaos. 14 dead champagne soldiers and guests...

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August 07, 2011, 04:21:04 AM
 #115

I don't understand the methodology but have been impressed with your results. Do you have a web link for weekend education?

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August 07, 2011, 04:29:59 AM
 #116

No offense Chod but your daily targets have been WAY OFF. Now obviously there has been a ton of bad news, but still even before the bad news your targets were off. Is technical analysis on something like Bitcoin even possible at this point in time? I mean literally any second this market can go off like the Apollo mission or sink like the Titanic. It just takes someone with money, so my question is how can any of your programs/information/experience predict this in such a volatile and small market?

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August 07, 2011, 04:42:46 AM
 #117

Does your system also outputs how certain/uncertain it's predictions are?

(I dont always get new reply notifications, pls send a pm when you think it has happened)

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August 07, 2011, 07:52:17 AM
 #118

No offense Chod but your daily targets have been WAY OFF. Now obviously there has been a ton of bad news, but still even before the bad news your targets were off. Is technical analysis on something like Bitcoin even possible at this point in time? I mean literally any second this market can go off like the Apollo mission or sink like the Titanic. It just takes someone with money, so my question is how can any of your programs/information/experience predict this in such a volatile and small market?

Essentially, it will take a lot more data. As I have stated, I expect it will take least two years' data in order to produce reliable results. We just don't have enough experience with this market IMO.

You might not be able to expect Titanic-like disasters, although—with modeling that works good enough you can run Titanic-like scenarios and use the outputs as a basis for contingency planning.

As it stands, and as I have already stated, I don't recommend that these results be used for guidance at this point. I post here for those that are interested in my research and its applications. I don't make any claims as to the reliability for the price projections. And, whenever reliable results can be demonstrated I won't have to make any claims. I will be free with my opinions in any case...
Don't get me wrong I appreciate your contributions, and of course you are not responsible for anyone here loosing money. However, I am starting to agree with you, this market is VERY hard to predict, and anyone who thinks they got it "all figured out" is DEAD WRONG.

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August 07, 2011, 08:57:20 AM
 #119

u should make a website and post updates, and then put that description somewhere there too

Smiley ;/)
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August 08, 2011, 12:02:04 AM
 #120

Code:
Actual  Low   High   2011-07-06 2011-07-10
        ===== ====   ========== ==========
07-06 | 13    16.5  | 10.735-  | 11.763-  |
07-07 | 14.5  15.9  |  14.267- |  13.615- |
07-08 | 13.9  15.6  |   18.370-|   15.604-|
07-09 | 14.04 14.7  |    22.269|    16.535|day 11..14
07-10 | 14.35 15.7  |    "     |    "     |==========
07-11 | 13.8  15.2  |    "     |    "     | 14.0-14.5|2011-07-13
07-12 | 13.9  14.65 |    "     |    "     | 13.9-14.6|==========
07-13 | 13.9  14.15 |    "     |    "     | 13.6-15.8| 11.833-  |
07-14 | 13.7  14.07 |    "     |    "     | 13.6-14.2|  14.339- |
07-15 | 13.5  14.07 |    "     |    "     |----------|   16.863-|
07-16 | 13.5  13.8  |    "     |    "     |----------|    18.028|
07-17 | 13    13.75 |    "     |    "     |----------|    "     |
07-18 | 12.5  14.6  |    "     |    "     |----------|    "     |
07-19 | 13.5  14.7  | 10.047-  | 10.852-  |          | 12.738-  |
07-20 | 13.4  14    |  13.352- |  13.870- |2011-07-21|  15.244- |
07-21 | 13.4  13.8  |   17.193-|   15.325-|==========|   17.228-|2011-07-22|2011-07-23
07-22 | 13.45 13.8  |    20.842|    16.834| 13.5-14.0|    19.142|==========|==========
07-23 | 13.51 13.76 |    "     |    "     | 13.3-14.3|    "     | 13.2-14.1| 13.4-14.1|2011-07-24            2011-07-25
07-24 | 13.63 14.1  |    "     |    "     | 13.4-14.8|    "     | 13.2-14.6| 13.2-14.3|==========|2011-07-25|==========
07-25 | 13.75 14.7  |    "     |    "     | 13.4-15.0|    "     | 13.2-14.6| 12.9-14.0| 13.5-14.4|==========| 12.895-  |
07-26 | 13.77 14.05 |    "     |    "     |----------|    "     | 14.0-15.5| 12.8-13.6| 13.3-14.2| 13.6-14.6|  13.448- |
07-27 | 13.68 14.13 |    "     |    "     |          |    "     |----------|----------| 13.2-13.8| 13.5-14.3|   14.239-|
07-28 | 13.3  13.95 |    "     |    "     |2011-07-29|    "     |----------|----------| 13.1-13.8| 13.5-14.2|    15.462|
07-29 | 13.33 13.7  |    "     |    "     |==========|    "     |          |----------|----------| 13.1-14.0|    "     |
07-30 | 13.45 13.63 |    "     |    "     | 13.4-13.9|    "     |2011-07-31|          |----------|----------|    "     |
07-31 | 12.8  14.9  |    "     |    "     | 13.4-13.8|    "     |==========|2011-08-02|----------|----------|    "     |
08-01 | 12.85 13.55 | 10.085-  | 12.775-  | 13.4-13.8|    "     | 13.1-13.5|==========|----------|----------|    "     |
08-02 | 11.5  13.1  |  13.403- |  14.569- | 13.2-13.8| 16.775-  | 13.0-13.5| 13.0-13.5|----------|----------| 12.145-  |
08-03 |  8.7  12.2  |   17.257-|   18.232-|----------|  17.402- | 13.0-13.4| 13.3-13.8|          |----------|  14.534- |
08-04 |  9.75 11.75 |    20.920|    20.361|----------|   20.325-| 13.0-13.3| 13.6-14.1|2011-08-06|----------|   16.426-|
08-05 |  9.5  11    |    "     |    "     |----------|    20.952| 12.966-  | 13.1-14.1|==========|          |    18.251|
08-06 |  5.75 10    |    "     |    "     |----------|    "     |  13.238- | 12.258-  | 5.26-    |2011-08-07|    "     |
08-07 |  6     9.5  |    "     |    "     |----------|    "     |   13.883-|  12.734- | 6.32-8.65|==========|    "     |
08-08 |             |    "     |    "     |----------|    "     |    14.468|   13.554-| 6.35-6.56| 6.76-8.08|    "     |
08-09 |             |    "     |    "     |----------|    "     |    "     |    14.079| 6.37-6.52| 5.93-7.55|    "     |
08-10 |             |    "     |    "     |----------|    "     |    "     |    "     | 4.61-6.44| 5.93-6.28|    "     |
08-11 |             |    "     |    "     |----------|    "     |    "     |    "     | 2.329-   | 6.02-6.75|    "     |
08-12 |             |    "     |    "     |----------|    "     |    "     | 12.550-  |----------|----------|    "     |
08-13 |             |    "     |    "     |----------| 20.117-  |    "     |  12.748- |----------|----------| 15.995-  |
08-14 |             | 20.573-  | 19.498-  |----------|  20.830- |    "     |   13.228-|----------|----------|  16.592- |
08-15 |             |  27.342- |  20.464- |----------|   22.692-| 12.834-  |    13.383|----------|----------|   19.379-|
08-16 |             |   35.206-|   28.627-|----------|    31.324|  13.253- |    "     |----------|----------|    19.977|
08-17 |             |    42.678|    53.838|----------|    "     |   14.176-|    "     |----------|----------|    "     |
08-18 |             |    "     |    "     |----------|    "     |    14.871|    "     |----------|----------|    "     |
08-19 |             |    "     |    "     |----------|    "     |    "     |    "     |----------|----------|    "     |
08-20 |             |    "     |    "     |----------|    "     |    "     |    "     |----------|----------|    "     |
08-21 |             |    "     |    "     |----------|    "     |    "     |    "     |----------|----------|    "     |
08-22 |             |    "     |    "     |----------|    "     |    "     |    "     |----------|----------|    "     |
08-23 |             |    "     |    "     |----------|    "     |    "     |    "     |----------|----------|    "     |
08-24 |             |    "     |    "     |----------|    "     |    "     |    "     |----------|----------|    "     |
08-25 |             |    "     |    "     |----------|    "     |    "     |    "     |----------|----------|    "     |
08-26 |             |----------|    "     |----------|----------|    "     |    "     |----------|----------|----------|
08-27 |             |----------|----------|----------|----------|    "     |    "     |----------|----------|----------|
08-28 |             |----------|----------|----------|----------|----------|----------|----------|----------|----------|

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